Murton getting benched again for lesser player

[Drew Doughty]

This debate would be settled a lot more easily if Murton were actually a good player. I'm not saying he's bad, but he's no better than average, which makes it hard for me to wholeheartedly endorse him.

 

I believe that Murton is a good player, but he really needs to take pitches. Enough with the first pitch swinging crap.

 

more fun with stats:

 

Murton is seeing 3.8 pitches per plate appearance compared to 3.7 last year. It seems bad right now because a few instances stick out, but for the most part he's being about as patient as normal. The issue is that he's not getting hits. Plus the aforementioned bad timing with his 1-pitch ABs.

 

While that may be true, I think it's more of a situational thing. It seems like he's swinging at the first pitch when there's either RISP, or in the 9th and we're down by one and need baserunners...those kind of things. It could be false perception, but that's what I've been noticing.

 

That said I still want him to get playing time because I think he's got a lot of potential.

 

Right, which is why I included the bad timing bit. I agree that it certainly *feels* like he's seeing fewer pitches (much like it *feels* like the cubs bullpen sucks), but he's really just timed his 1-pitch ABs poorly.

[ltb]

Average speed and below average defense with not much power do not equal superstar.

 

where is it being argued that murton is a superstar? we're arguing that he's better than floyd (who has average to below average speed and certainly below average defense now, as well).

[CubColtPacer]

This debate would be settled a lot more easily if Murton were actually a good player. I'm not saying he's bad, but he's no better than average, which makes it hard for me to wholeheartedly endorse him.

 

I believe that Murton is a good player, but he really needs to take pitches. Enough with the first pitch swinging crap.

 

more fun with stats:

 

Murton is seeing 3.8 pitches per plate appearance compared to 3.7 last year. It seems bad right now because a few instances stick out, but for the most part he's being about as patient as normal. The issue is that he's not getting hits. Plus the aforementioned bad timing with his 1-pitch ABs.

 

While that may be true, I think it's more of a situational thing. It seems like he's swinging at the first pitch when there's either RISP, or in the 9th and we're down by one and need baserunners...those kind of things. It could be false perception, but that's what I've been noticing.

 

That said I still want him to get playing time because I think he's got a lot of potential.

 

Right, which is why I included the bad timing bit. I agree that it certainly *feels* like he's seeing fewer pitches (much like it *feels* like the cubs bullpen sucks), but he's really just timed his 1-pitch ABs poorly.

 

I think this is where pitches per plate appearance and patience might be somewhat exclusive as well. For example, on Opening Day Murton saw 3.75 pitches per plate appearance. I don't think anyone would call him anywhere near patient that day though, as he struck 3 times, at least twice on terrible pitches.

 

So it's not just that he's swinging early in the count-but he's swinging at many more balls then he used to as well.

[Drew Doughty]

This debate would be settled a lot more easily if Murton were actually a good player. I'm not saying he's bad, but he's no better than average, which makes it hard for me to wholeheartedly endorse him.

 

I believe that Murton is a good player, but he really needs to take pitches. Enough with the first pitch swinging crap.

 

more fun with stats:

 

Murton is seeing 3.8 pitches per plate appearance compared to 3.7 last year. It seems bad right now because a few instances stick out, but for the most part he's being about as patient as normal. The issue is that he's not getting hits. Plus the aforementioned bad timing with his 1-pitch ABs.

 

While that may be true, I think it's more of a situational thing. It seems like he's swinging at the first pitch when there's either RISP, or in the 9th and we're down by one and need baserunners...those kind of things. It could be false perception, but that's what I've been noticing.

 

That said I still want him to get playing time because I think he's got a lot of potential.

 

Right, which is why I included the bad timing bit. I agree that it certainly *feels* like he's seeing fewer pitches (much like it *feels* like the cubs bullpen sucks), but he's really just timed his 1-pitch ABs poorly.

 

I think this is where pitches per plate appearance and patience might be somewhat exclusive as well. For example, on Opening Day Murton saw 3.75 pitches per plate appearance. I don't think anyone would call him anywhere near patient that day though, as he struck 3 times, at least twice on terrible pitches.

 

So it's not just that he's swinging early in the count-but he's swinging at many more balls then he used to as well.

 

well, he's walking at near the same pace too. his ISoD is about right. he is striking out more, but I don't think that's for a lack of patience. my guess would be that consistent playing time would mean better numbers, but I don't know.

[cubfan1955]

Average speed and below average defense with not much power do not equal superstar.

 

where is it being argued that murton is a superstar? we're arguing that he's better than floyd (who has average to below average speed and certainly below average defense now, as well).

Some on this board think that he is a superstar but point taken. Those things also do not make a "good" player. It makes an average player, which is what he is.

[VVMattVV]

Average speed and below average defense with not much power do not equal superstar.

 

where is it being argued that murton is a superstar? we're arguing that he's better than floyd (who has average to below average speed and certainly below average defense now, as well).

Some on this board think that he is a superstar but point taken. Those things also do not make a "good" player. It makes an average player, which is what he is.

 

I haven't seen anyone declare him a superstar.

 

He has been an average player to this point, and he might never have the power to be an above average left fielder. But on a team that is as OBP-starved as ours has been, it would be nice to stick Murton in the OF and 2 spot for the rest of the year.

[cubfan1955]

Average speed and below average defense with not much power do not equal superstar.

 

where is it being argued that murton is a superstar? we're arguing that he's better than floyd (who has average to below average speed and certainly below average defense now, as well).

Some on this board think that he is a superstar but point taken. Those things also do not make a "good" player. It makes an average player, which is what he is.

 

I haven't seen anyone declare him a superstar.

 

He has been an average player to this point, and he might never have the power to be an above average left fielder. But on a team that is as OBP-starved as ours has been, it would be nice to stick Murton in the OF and 2 spot for the rest of the year.

Like I said earlier I think he should be getting the majority of the starts and the two hole would be the spot. I'd just like to quit seeing a rotating outfield at this point. Settle on something and be done with it Lou.

[RegulusBlue]

Average speed and below average defense with not much power do not equal superstar.

 

where is it being argued that murton is a superstar? we're arguing that he's better than floyd (who has average to below average speed and certainly below average defense now, as well).

Some on this board think that he is a superstar but point taken. Those things also do not make a "good" player. It makes an average player, which is what he is.

 

I haven't seen anyone declare him a superstar.

 

He has been an average player to this point, and he might never have the power to be an above average left fielder. But on a team that is as OBP-starved as ours has been, it would be nice to stick Murton in the OF and 2 spot for the rest of the year.

Like I said earlier I think he should be getting the majority of the starts and the two hole would be the spot. I'd just like to quit seeing a rotating outfield at this point. Settle on something and be done with it Lou.

 

Nice reversal of opinion after getting called on your statement. In the space of a few posts he's gone from below average to deserving the majority of starts. Hmmm...

[cubfan1955]

Nice reversal of opinion after getting called on your statement. In the space of a few posts he's gone from below average to deserving the majority of starts. Hmmm...

The words below average was describing his defense, not the overall player. On this team he should be getting the starts until there is someone better to take them from him. Floyd certainly isn't the answer but I don't think it's an outrage that Murton isn't getting the starts.

[Rob]

Nice reversal of opinion after getting called on your statement. In the space of a few posts he's gone from below average to deserving the majority of starts. Hmmm...

The words below average was describing his defense, not the overall player. On this team he should be getting the starts until there is someone better to take them from him. Floyd certainly isn't the answer but I don't think it's an outrage that Murton isn't getting the starts.

 

Is Murton really a below average LF?

 

He's hardly the best defender I've ever seen out there, but there aren't many good defenders in LF.

 

Partial list

 

Chris Duncan

Adam Dunn

Carlos Lee

Moises Alou

Pat Burrell

Luis Gonzalez

Barry Bonds

Raul Ibanez

Garrett Anderson

Manny Ramirez

 

All of those are worse defenders than Murton, and some by a great deal (Duncan, Dunn, Manny, Burrell)

 

That floor is a huge distance from the ceiling. What's the gold standard in left now? Scott Podsednik? Carl Crawford? Hideki Matsui? Murton is definately closer to those three than he is to Ducan, Manny, Dunn, or Burrell.

[cubfan1955]

Nice reversal of opinion after getting called on your statement. In the space of a few posts he's gone from below average to deserving the majority of starts. Hmmm...

The words below average was describing his defense, not the overall player. On this team he should be getting the starts until there is someone better to take them from him. Floyd certainly isn't the answer but I don't think it's an outrage that Murton isn't getting the starts.

 

Is Murton really a below average LF?

 

He's hardly the best defender I've ever seen out there, but there aren't many good defenders in LF.

 

Partial list

 

Chris Duncan

Adam Dunn

Carlos Lee

Moises Alou

Pat Burrell

Luis Gonzalez

Barry Bonds

Raul Ibanez

Garrett Anderson

Manny Ramirez

 

All of those are worse defenders than Murton, and some by a great deal (Duncan, Dunn, Manny, Burrell)

 

That floor is a huge distance from the ceiling. What's the gold standard in left now? Scott Podsednik? Carl Crawford? Hideki Matsui? Murton is definately closer to those three than he is to Ducan, Manny, Dunn, or Burrell.

Again, I never said he was a below average left fielder. I said he is below average defensively, as most left fielders are. When he starts hitting like Adam Dunn I'll stop worrying about his defense.

[Warren Brusstar]

In response to no particular post - but rather this thread generally:

 

There is a fundamental distinction between Murton losing playing time to Cliff Floyd or Jacque Jones than Murton losing time to Angel Pagan and Freddie Bynum. Now, even if we assume that Murton is the better player (and I'm not willing to conclude that), the difference between Murton and Floyd or Jones isn't very much.

 

That is all.

[Warpticon]

Nice reversal of opinion after getting called on your statement. In the space of a few posts he's gone from below average to deserving the majority of starts. Hmmm...

The words below average was describing his defense, not the overall player. On this team he should be getting the starts until there is someone better to take them from him. Floyd certainly isn't the answer but I don't think it's an outrage that Murton isn't getting the starts.

 

Is Murton really a below average LF?

 

He's hardly the best defender I've ever seen out there, but there aren't many good defenders in LF.

 

Partial list

 

Chris Duncan

Adam Dunn

Carlos Lee

Moises Alou

Pat Burrell

Luis Gonzalez

Barry Bonds

Raul Ibanez

Garrett Anderson

Manny Ramirez

 

All of those are worse defenders than Murton, and some by a great deal (Duncan, Dunn, Manny, Burrell)

 

That floor is a huge distance from the ceiling. What's the gold standard in left now? Scott Podsednik? Carl Crawford? Hideki Matsui? Murton is definately closer to those three than he is to Ducan, Manny, Dunn, or Burrell.

Again, I never said he was a below average left fielder. I said he is below average defensively, as most left fielders are. When he starts hitting like Adam Dunn I'll stop worrying about his defense.

 

...if you're not comparing him to other left fielders, who ARE you comparing him to?

[J.R.]

In response to no particular post - but rather this thread generally:

 

There is a fundamental distinction between Murton losing playing time to Cliff Floyd or Jacque Jones than Murton losing time to Angel Pagan and Freddie Bynum. Now, even if we assume that Murton is the better player (and I'm not willing to conclude that), the difference between Murton and Floyd or Jones isn't very much.

 

That is all.

 

Excellent point.

[Warren Brusstar]

In response to no particular post - but rather this thread generally:

 

There is a fundamental distinction between Murton losing playing time to Cliff Floyd or Jacque Jones than Murton losing time to Angel Pagan and Freddie Bynum. Now, even if we assume that Murton is the better player (and I'm not willing to conclude that), the difference between Murton and Floyd or Jones isn't very much.

 

That is all.

 

Excellent point.

 

And for that very reason, this isn't something to get overly worked up about. When Murton was sitting last year while Pagan and Bynum were playing, I screamed just loudly as Regulus and other Murton-lovers. There isn't any reason to be screaming as loudly now.

[Rob]

Again, I never said he was a below average left fielder. I said he is below average defensively, as most left fielders are. When he starts hitting like Adam Dunn I'll stop worrying about his defense.

 

Who the devil are you comparing him to if it's not left fielders? Adam Everett? Yadier Molina?

[CubColtPacer]

Again, I never said he was a below average left fielder. I said he is below average defensively, as most left fielders are. When he starts hitting like Adam Dunn I'll stop worrying about his defense.

 

Who the devil are you comparing him to if it's not left fielders? Adam Everett? Yadier Molina?

 

My guess would be that he's comparing him to all corner OF's-I mean, what is the only main difference between RF and LF? Defensive ability-and considering that Murton is about to have to move to RF to get playing time (with Soriano coming to left), comparing him against other RF'ers is probably more appropriate at this point.

[Rob]

Again, I never said he was a below average left fielder. I said he is below average defensively, as most left fielders are. When he starts hitting like Adam Dunn I'll stop worrying about his defense.

 

Who the devil are you comparing him to if it's not left fielders? Adam Everett? Yadier Molina?

 

My guess would be that he's comparing him to all corner OF's-I mean, what is the only main difference between RF and LF? Defensive ability-and considering that Murton is about to have to move to RF to get playing time (with Soriano coming to left), comparing him against other RF'ers is probably more appropriate at this point.

 

Well if we want to play that game, Soriano profiles more as a CF or RF than a LF. So we can still make the argument that with Soriano's defense in left and Pie in center, Murton only needs to play as well as a typical left fielder anyways.

[CubColtPacer]

Again, I never said he was a below average left fielder. I said he is below average defensively, as most left fielders are. When he starts hitting like Adam Dunn I'll stop worrying about his defense.

 

Who the devil are you comparing him to if it's not left fielders? Adam Everett? Yadier Molina?

 

My guess would be that he's comparing him to all corner OF's-I mean, what is the only main difference between RF and LF? Defensive ability-and considering that Murton is about to have to move to RF to get playing time (with Soriano coming to left), comparing him against other RF'ers is probably more appropriate at this point.

 

Well if we want to play that game, Soriano profiles more as a CF or RF than a LF. So we can still make the argument that with Soriano's defense in left and Pie in center, Murton only needs to play as well as a typical left fielder anyways.

 

That's very true. With Soriano and Pie's range, Murton won't need quite the range that typically you'd need in RF.

 

I'm not sure you're going to see that alignment for a while though-Pie still has a decent chance of being sent down late next week, and the lineup may have Jones in CF on a daily basis until he gets traded.

[Rob]

Again, I never said he was a below average left fielder. I said he is below average defensively, as most left fielders are. When he starts hitting like Adam Dunn I'll stop worrying about his defense.

 

Who the devil are you comparing him to if it's not left fielders? Adam Everett? Yadier Molina?

 

My guess would be that he's comparing him to all corner OF's-I mean, what is the only main difference between RF and LF? Defensive ability-and considering that Murton is about to have to move to RF to get playing time (with Soriano coming to left), comparing him against other RF'ers is probably more appropriate at this point.

 

Well if we want to play that game, Soriano profiles more as a CF or RF than a LF. So we can still make the argument that with Soriano's defense in left and Pie in center, Murton only needs to play as well as a typical left fielder anyways.

 

That's very true. With Soriano and Pie's range, Murton won't need quite the range that typically you'd need in RF.

 

I'm not sure you're going to see that alignment for a while though-Pie still has a decent chance of being sent down late next week, and the lineup may have Jones in CF on a daily basis until he gets traded.

 

I think (for no real reason whatsoever) we'll send the end of Jones as a Cub before too long. I'd be surprised if it goes on more than another 3 weeks.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Warren, you may be right that the handwringing over Murton is excessive. However, I think your analysis misses something important. Your argument, I think, looks like this:

 

1) Murton and Floyd are equally productive

2) If two players are equally productive, a lineup with one of them is no more likely to win than a lineup with the other

3) If the team is no more likely to win with one lineup than another, it's completely arbitrary which lineup the team uses.

4) If it's arbitary which lineup the team uses, it's illogical to care which lineup the team uses.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5) So, it's illogical to care whether the Cubs play Murton or play Floyd.

 

 

The big problem is 3). Why? Player development and salary issues are important longer-term considerations which must be weighed alongside short-term gains in wins.

 

Suppose I grant you 1) and 2). Even if playing Murton doesn't mean that we're fielding a significantly better team, it might nevertheless be a much smarter decision because it helps us position ourselves for the future.

 

1) Whereas Murton is a long-term asset, Floyd is a relatively temporary player. Even if he did remain with the organization for a few years beyond 2007, Floyd would be unlikely to remain in a starting role. Murton, on the other hand, will be under the organization's control for years and likely will be an option for a starting role for most if not all of that period.

 

2) Over the next several years, Murton's health risk is, to say the least, not likely to be comparable to Floyd's. Nor is Murton as likely to suffer from reduced 'healthy' performance in the aftermath of injuries. Moreover, Murton can be expected to recover from (at least some types of) injuries more quickly.

 

3) Over the next several years, Murton is not likely to suffer from age-related performance dropoffs such as reduced bat speed or declining conditioning.

 

4) Over the next several years, it is likely that Murton will be physically able to perform as an everyday player. Floyd will not, even if healthy.

 

5) Over the next several years, Murton will come quite cheaply and at (more or less) projectable cost. Floyd, or players like him, will come at a cost that is much less predictable and probably not cheaper.

 

6) MURTON MIGHT (IS LIKELY TO) IMPROVE

 

 

Playing Murton offers us a path to the future that is safer in terms of both health and dollars, less likely to require supporting role players, and significantly less at risk for sudden dropoffs. I need not remind you of the value of low cost, low risk players on a team with an already high payroll, an impending need to give a payday to a young ace hitting free agency, and facing uncertainties about future funding levels. Most importantly, Murton also has a respectable shot at becoming a good player. So, even if we could all agree that Murton and Floyd are 'the same player' right now, it would still be quite logical to insist that the team play Murton.

[VanceJergins]

Just wanted to point something out:

 

In the games Murton has started, his line is .357/.400/.393. He's done very poorly as a PH and late-innings sub. In 9 PA, his line is .000/.111/.000.

 

So it seems that all the talk of Murton's struggles is greatly exaggerated and a role as a PH or late-inning sub just isn't his thing. He's tearing it up as a starter.

[NewUserName]

Just wanted to point something out:

 

In the games Murton has started, his line is .357/.400/.393. He's done very poorly as a PH and late-innings sub. In 9 PA, his line is .000/.111/.000.

 

So it seems that all the talk of Murton's struggles is greatly exaggerated and a role as a PH or late-inning sub just isn't his thing. He's tearing it up as a starter.

 

Also I am pretty sure Floyds HR was a pinchhit or late inning sub shot.

[CubColtPacer]

Just wanted to point something out:

 

In the games Murton has started, his line is .357/.400/.393. He's done very poorly as a PH and late-innings sub. In 9 PA, his line is .000/.111/.000.

 

So it seems that all the talk of Murton's struggles is greatly exaggerated and a role as a PH or late-inning sub just isn't his thing. He's tearing it up as a starter.

 

Also I am pretty sure Floyds HR was a pinchhit or late inning sub shot.

 

It was either his second or third at-bat after replacing Soriano on Monday.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Just wanted to point something out:

 

In the games Murton has started, his line is .357/.400/.393. He's done very poorly as a PH and late-innings sub. In 9 PA, his line is .000/.111/.000.

 

So it seems that all the talk of Murton's struggles is greatly exaggerated and a role as a PH or late-inning sub just isn't his thing. He's tearing it up as a starter.

 

Murton also got a couple lucky IF hits and weak bloopers to drop. I wouldn't get too excited about his numbers as a starter.

 

Murton is struggling at the plate. That's pretty apparent if you watch him. First pitch hacking and failing to work the count really stand out with a player like Murton, who is a very good 2 strike hitter. Murton is not squaring the ball up or hitting with authority like he was in the second half of last season.

 

IMO, with such a small sample size, it's better to go off what you see with the naked eye than look at a player's stats.