BP Postseason Probabilities

[Mephistopheles]

Average wins by position in AL East:  101.8 90.8 82.4 74.3 63.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees            0    0   .570   92.4   69.6   40.59301   13.60179   54.19479
Red Sox            0    0   .564   90.9   71.1   35.43132   13.81910   49.25042
Blue Jays          0    0   .494   79.1   82.9   10.53152    7.19913   17.73065
Devil Rays         0    0   .483   76.6   85.4    7.74989    5.60243   13.35232
Orioles            0    0   .465   74.1   87.9    5.69425    4.24754    9.94178

Average wins by position in AL Central:  101.3 90.2 81.3 71.6 59.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins              0    0   .558   90.9   71.1   37.31252   12.85630   50.16882
Indians            0    0   .552   90.4   71.6   35.45562   12.87536   48.33099
Tigers             0    0   .523   84.8   77.2   20.68861   10.61373   31.30234
White Sox          0    0   .453   72.2   89.8    4.74996    3.25453    8.00449
Royals             0    0   .413   65.4   96.6    1.79329    1.25870    3.05199

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.3 84.3 75.3 64.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels             0    0   .529   86.1   75.9   41.18128    4.59647   45.77775
Athletics          0    0   .494   80.4   81.6   24.46230    4.08255   28.54484
Rangers            0    0   .494   80.0   82.0   23.62475    3.96191   27.58666
Mariners           0    0   .453   72.7   89.3   10.73167    2.03048   12.76215

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  95.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.9 88.7 80.8 72.5 60.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Phillies           0    0   .535   87.8   74.2   34.14162    8.41704   42.55865
Mets               0    0   .529   86.0   76.0   28.96342    8.10600   37.06942
Braves             0    0   .506   81.8   80.2   18.94159    6.44759   25.38918
Marlins            0    0   .488   79.7   82.3   15.22222    5.46422   20.68644
Nationals          0    0   .413   66.1   95.9    2.73115    1.06657    3.79772

Average wins by position in NL Central:  99.2 90.1 83.5 77.4 70.7 61.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs               0    0   .523   86.2   75.8   27.24359    8.72163   35.96523
Brewers            0    0   .523   85.5   76.5   25.38508    8.47606   33.86115
Cardinals          0    0   .500   81.8   80.2   17.38158    6.92352   24.30511
Astros             0    0   .494   80.8   81.2   15.59199    6.27680   21.86879
Pirates            0    0   .471   76.5   85.5    9.49080    4.32960   13.82040
Reds               0    0   .442   71.4   90.6    4.90695    2.37331    7.28026

Average wins by position in NL West:  99.3 89.4 82.1 74.8 65.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Diamondbacks       0    0   .541   87.9   74.1   32.89564    8.81973   41.71537
Padres             0    0   .529   86.0   76.0   27.68645    8.49932   36.18576
Dodgers            0    0   .494   79.5   82.5   14.13974    5.69001   19.82975
Rockies            0    0   .488   78.8   83.2   12.89812    5.27597   18.17410
Giants             0    0   .488   78.3   83.7   12.38004    5.11262   17.49266

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  95.1

[oldstyle81]

whos the girl in your avatar?

[Mephistopheles]

whos the girl in your avatar?

 

well all this tells us is that prior doesnt listen to hawthorne heights and wear eyeliner.

 

Off topic, but who is that in your avatar these days?

 

gwen stefani

[oldstyle81]

whos the girl in your avatar?

 

well all this tells us is that prior doesnt listen to hawthorne heights and wear eyeliner.

 

Off topic, but who is that in your avatar these days?

 

gwen stefani

 

thats what i thought but i wasant 100 percent sure

[Geech]

Computers don't play baseball.

[A New Era]

I just don't understand. some of those numbers. One part says "average NL wildcard or somethin and then it says ~91. But the highest number there for any NL team is around 89.something. So how is the wildcard 91? Help me to understand please. :)

[soccer10k]

I just don't understand. some of those numbers. One part says "average NL wildcard or somethin and then it says ~91. But the highest number there for any NL team is around 89.something. So how is the wildcard 91? Help me to understand please. :)

 

Just to make it simple, we'll take 2 teams, the Red Sox and the Blue Jays. Let's say in simulation #1 the Red Sox win the wild card with 95 wins and the Blue Jays end up with 84. Then in simulation #2, the Blue Jays win the wild card with 94 wins and the Red Sox end up with 85 wins. Well, the average wins for the wild card winner is (95+94)/2 = 94.5 wins. The average # of wins for the Red Sox is (95+85)/2 = 90 and the average # of wins for the Blue Jays is (94+84)/2 = 89.

 

So:

 

Red Sox avg 90 wins

Blue Jays avg 89 wins

Wild Card winner avg 94.5 wins.

 

Because the wild card winner is always going to have, at worst, the fourth most wins in the league where as each individual team could theoretically have anywhere between the 1st and 14th (or 16th in the NL) wins in the American League.

[rawaction]

Indians could be great. Tampa looks like they could contend.

[BigbadB]

Tampa?

 

Who is starting for them besides Kazmir? Offensively, they look pretty solid. Pitching will once again be their weakness. It's amazing to me that they ignore that problem year after year.

 

I thought for sure they'd peddle some offense this offseason for some pitching. They're going to lose a lot of games 14-13.

[soapy]

Computers don't play baseball.

 

Of course not. The numbers play.

[CoolHandLuke]

whos the girl in your avatar?

 

well all this tells us is that prior doesnt listen to hawthorne heights and wear eyeliner.

 

Off topic, but who is that in your avatar these days?

 

gwen stefani

 

You have wonderful Avatar's.

[Balsa]

I don't see the D-Backs being that good. Sure, they got butt loads of potential, but I see them needing another year to really compete.

 

And boy, the ChiSox get NO love at all in those stats. WOW.

[ChiCubsFan]

I don't see the D-Backs being that good. Sure, they got butt loads of potential, but I see them needing another year to really compete.

 

And boy, the ChiSox get NO love at all in those stats. WOW.

 

Thats probably because the White Sox are going to be horrible this year.

 

And the D-Backs are my favorites to win the West. I don't know if that says more about the talent of the D-Backs or less about the NL West.