2007 Player projections

[snoodmonger]

This has probably been discussed elsewhere, but I can't find it.

 

I was reading tcr, and they posted player side-by-side stats projections for the Cubs starters from 4 different sources: (tht, BP, baseball think factory, and the guy's smart buddy.)

 

Link

 

I was pretty disturbed by D-Lee's projections. I know he's coming off an injury, but if he posts #s like that, do we have any chance at the postseason?

[otis89]

There is absolutely no way DLee is hitting under 30 home runs this season unless he gets injured.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

ack, triple crown stats? Win-loss? Why bother with those?

[oldstyle81]

there is no way i can see (outside of injuries) DLee having only 68 RBI's in this lineup, NO WAY

 

most of the numbers on there are extremely pesimesitc

 

hell he had 30 RBI's in 175 at bats last season

Edited March 25, 2007 by oldstyle81

[Soriano12]

I'm not reading that site until they fix those tag errors

[cubs121]

now i really know why BP picked us to finish 5th... if you think about it... if our pitching staff is as bad as there projecting, ofcourse where not going to do great.. BP projects Derrek to have a .288 22 68... NO WAY do i see that happening if he stays healthy...

[cubs121]

there is no way i can see (outside of injuries) DLee having only 68 RBI's in this lineup, NO WAY

 

most of the numbers on there are extremely pesimesitc

 

hell he had 30 RBI's in 175 at bats last season

I agree.. i think BP's projections are pretty bogus.. common Cubbies go out and prove 'em wrong... thats all i can say..

[CubColtPacer]

now i really know why BP picked us to finish 5th... if you think about it... if our pitching staff is as bad as there projecting, ofcourse where not going to do great.. BP projects Derrek to have a .288 22 68... NO WAY do i see that happening if he stays healthy...

 

BP didn't pick us 5th-that was BA. BP picked us either 1st or second IIRC, and they love our offense overall.

[Derwood]

a couple of things jump out:

 

1 - If Floyd gives us 70ish RBI, great, but I sorta hope he doesn't get the PT to accumulate that total

 

2 - I'll take 50 RBI from DeRosa thank you

 

3 - While not great, Marquis' projections are better (ERA-wise) than his numbers last year

 

4 - Can A-Ram be any more consistent?

[Rob]

now i really know why BP picked us to finish 5th... if you think about it... if our pitching staff is as bad as there projecting, ofcourse where not going to do great.. BP projects Derrek to have a .288 22 68... NO WAY do i see that happening if he stays healthy...

 

They're projecting that in 429 PA.

 

Besides, in the player profile they did for him a while back, they said he'd hit more like his 75th percentile projection if he's healthy... so translate this line to his typical 650-700 PA.

 

PA 450, R 81, HR 24, RBI 71, SB 14, AVG .302, OBP .385, SLG, .561

[Rob]

now i really know why BP picked us to finish 5th... if you think about it... if our pitching staff is as bad as there projecting, ofcourse where not going to do great.. BP projects Derrek to have a .288 22 68... NO WAY do i see that happening if he stays healthy...

 

BP didn't pick us 5th-that was BA. BP picked us either 1st or second IIRC, and they love our offense overall.

 

Yeah, they manually adjusted playing time for their team projections. They were still a bit conservative on DLee with 583 PA, but his numbers look pretty nice with 97 R, 28 HR, 87 RBI, and 18 steals.

[Backtobanks]

now i really know why BP picked us to finish 5th... if you think about it... if our pitching staff is as bad as there projecting, ofcourse where not going to do great.. BP projects Derrek to have a .288 22 68... NO WAY do i see that happening if he stays healthy...

 

If he's healthy, he could have that by midseason.

[Mephistopheles]

now i really know why BP picked us to finish 5th... if you think about it... if our pitching staff is as bad as there projecting, ofcourse where not going to do great.. BP projects Derrek to have a .288 22 68... NO WAY do i see that happening if he stays healthy...

 

If he's healthy, he could have that by midseason.

 

Its because PECOTA doesn't know what kind of injury he sustained in 2006. For all it knows, he could have ripped off his arm, literally. If you rate it out the PT its pretty good. There's also a bit more regression due to the injury, that's probably fine considering how hitters *usually* never fully recover from a wrist injury.

[Post Count Padder]

a couple of things jump out:

 

1 - If Floyd gives us 70ish RBI, great, but I sorta hope he doesn't get the PT to accumulate that total

 

2 - I'll take 50 RBI from DeRosa thank you

 

3 - While not great, Marquis' projections are better (ERA-wise) than his numbers last year

 

4 - Can A-Ram be any more consistent?

Also, while I prefer to have The Riot starting over him, I could live with those projections for Izzy.

[Mephistopheles]

ack, triple crown stats? Win-loss? Why bother with those?

 

Nostalgia.

[bjsands]

A lot of those projections, especially PECOTA, are known for being especially pessimistic. Even the BP guys acknowledge that. Those player projections are the median projections. The better the player, the better chance they exceed the median.

 

PECOTA projects the most wins any team will get this season is 93. There is NO WAY 93 wins is the most any team will get this season. Just remember that when studying the PECOTA projections. They are notoriously low.

[Mephistopheles]

A lot of those projections, especially PECOTA, are known for being especially pessimistic. Even the BP guys acknowledge that. Those player projections are the median projections. The better the player, the better chance they exceed the median.

 

not really, then it wouldn't be the median...

[bjsands]

A lot of those projections, especially PECOTA, are known for being especially pessimistic. Even the BP guys acknowledge that. Those player projections are the median projections. The better the player, the better chance they exceed the median.

 

not really, then it wouldn't be the median...

 

I know. I'm just using my intuition.

 

Carlos Zambrano's 50th percentile is projected to be 13-8 with a 3.80 ERA. I think (and hope) those are off. Just to be objective, Johan Santana's 50th percentile is 16-6 with a 3.06 ERA.

 

However, Z's 90th percentile projections are 17-7 with a 2.95 ERA and Santana's are 19-4 with a 2.16 ERA. I think those 90th percentile projections may be more likely, actually.

 

(The 90th percentile means there is a 10% chance a player's stat line will have that much value. A player's 75th percentile rating means he has a 25% chance of having that valuable a season, and so forth...)

[Ender]

Carlos Zambrano's 50th percentile is projected to be 13-8 with a 3.80 ERA. I think (and hope) those are off. Just to be objective, Johan Santana's 50th percentile is 16-6 with a 3.06 ERA

 

Zambrano's projection is probably because of how abused he's been over the past 3 years and the fact his control slipped last year to very dangerous levels, very few pitchers can walk over 100 a year and not crash and burn eventually.