Bruce Miles Piece on the Big Murt

[BigbadB]

Again, I'm not saying he's a great alternative, but I don't think he's nearly as bad as he's made to be on these boards.

 

Cedeno was rushed to the majors also. I think he would probably be a better alternative at SS than Izturis. But, I'd like Cedeno to get some more seasoning in AAA. Izturis would be better off doing the same.

 

Unfortunately, one of them will have to be at SS on opening day.

[Danny82]

CubsColtPacer (I think it was him) has broken down the statistical indicators (also considering his age and how he was rushed through the minors) several times that show that we can reasonably expect improvement from Izturis this year over his career numbers.

 

I'll look for one of his posts.

 

Again, I'm not saying he's a great alternative, but I don't think he's nearly as bad as he's made to be on these boards.

 

And again, improvement from career numbers takes him from one of the worst regulars ever to simply well below average.

But better than Neifi, which was the point of our conversation.

 

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[sethuel1]

CubsColtPacer (I think it was him) has broken down the statistical indicators (also considering his age and how he was rushed through the minors) several times that show that we can reasonably expect improvement from Izturis this year over his career numbers.

 

I'll look for one of his posts.

 

Again, I'm not saying he's a great alternative, but I don't think he's nearly as bad as he's made to be on these boards.

 

And again, improvement from career numbers takes him from one of the worst regulars ever to simply well below average.

But better than Neifi, which was the point of our conversation.

 

Hooray! If we get an improvement we'll have someone slightly better than Neifi!

[USSoccer]

CubsColtPacer (I think it was him) has broken down the statistical indicators (also considering his age and how he was rushed through the minors) several times that show that we can reasonably expect improvement from Izturis this year over his career numbers.

 

I'll look for one of his posts.

 

Again, I'm not saying he's a great alternative, but I don't think he's nearly as bad as he's made to be on these boards.

 

And again, improvement from career numbers takes him from one of the worst regulars ever to simply well below average.

But better than Neifi, which was the point of our conversation.

 

Page 4 of this link.

 

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No. The point of this conversation was to say how terrible Izturis is. I was using Neifi as perspective on his awfulness.

 

Being better than Neifi isn't anything to write home about. Many metrics have Neifi in the team photo of worst regular ever.

 

So basically, if he improves, he's slightly better than Neifi, but he's still terrible. How is that impressive or acceptable?

 

This team has the payroll and the players internally to not have to deal with such a terrible everyday flaw in it's lineup. People can rationalize Izturis all they want. He's either going to suck, or suck and then get hurt. His glove isn't going to change his suck at the plate, and he'll be lucky if his hamstring and back and shoulder injuries don't take him from being a good defensive SS to a slightly above average one.

 

And then what do you have? An expensive, crappy IF who can't stay healthy and can't get on base or slug.

[Danny82]

I responded to your statement that you would take Neifi over Izturis. That was the point of our conversation. If you've discussed Izturis with others in this thread, fine, but the subject matter of our discussion was who was more preferable between Neifi and Izturis.

[USSoccer]

I responded to your statement that you would take Neifi over Izturis. That was the point of our conversation. If you've discussed Izturis with others in this thread, fine, but the subject matter of our discussion was who was more preferable between Neifi and Izturis.

 

No. You're wrong.

 

One sort of good season isn't going to cut it. His career OBP is below .300. That's terrible. I'd rather have Neifi, and I hated Neifi.

EDIT:

 

Izturis' Career BA/OBP/SLG%: .259 .295 .336

Neifi's: Career BA/OBP/SLG%: .268 .298 .376

 

Neifi's actually the better offensive player. That's pathetic.

 

EDIT #2:

 

Zambrano's Career BA/OBP/SLG% .212 .223 .355

 

His SLG% is higher than Izturis'. That's extra-pathetic.

 

or, the original point:

 

Keep in mind Izturis' injuries of late may have an appreciable effect on his defensive ability.

 

That and he's beyond terrible with the bat. His offensive lack of production will offset any defensive benefits he'll possibly provide.

 

What I'm saying is given our in house SS options, he's probably the 3rd best option in my world.

 

I was never discussing who I'd rather have. I was discussing the fact that Izturis sucks, and providing examples to highlight that. Hence, the Neifi reference. Z was also referenced as well. The "I'd rather have Neifi" is hyperbole, used to highlight the level of Izturis' awfulness.

 

If you can't defend your point, don't try and change my point to get out of the argument.

[CubColtPacer]

CubsColtPacer (I think it was him) has broken down the statistical indicators (also considering his age and how he was rushed through the minors) several times that show that we can reasonably expect improvement from Izturis this year over his career numbers.

 

I'll look for one of his posts.

 

Again, I'm not saying he's a great alternative, but I don't think he's nearly as bad as he's made to be on these boards.

 

And again, improvement from career numbers takes him from one of the worst regulars ever to simply well below average.

But better than Neifi, which was the point of our conversation.

 

Page 4 of this link.

 

viewtopic.php?t=38595&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=45

 

No. The point of this conversation was to say how terrible Izturis is. I was using Neifi as perspective on his awfulness.

 

Being better than Neifi isn't anything to write home about. Many metrics have Neifi in the team photo of worst regular ever.

 

So basically, if he improves, he's slightly better than Neifi, but he's still terrible. How is that impressive or acceptable?

 

This team has the payroll and the players internally to not have to deal with such a terrible everyday flaw in it's lineup. People can rationalize Izturis all they want. He's either going to suck, or suck and then get hurt. His glove isn't going to change his suck at the plate, and he'll be lucky if his hamstring and back and shoulder injuries don't take him from being a good defensive SS to a slightly above average one.

 

And then what do you have? An expensive, crappy IF who can't stay healthy and can't get on base or slug.

 

From breaking down the numbers, I can't see how you would think there is absolutely no chance that Izturis will be just fine for a SS this year. Is there a pretty decent chance that the injuries will hurt him and cause him to be well below average? Definitely-but if not for Izturis's injuries, he would already be an average to above average shortstop with the way he was developing. His numbers said that his bat was etting continually better every single year of his minor league and major league career before the injuries with no hiccups or setbacks-the first huge setback was the big injuries, and it will have to be seen if that is going to cause him to lose his development or if he can resume where he left off.

[USSoccer]

From breaking down the numbers, I can't see how you would think there is absolutely no chance that Izturis will be just fine for a SS this year. Is there a pretty decent chance that the injuries will hurt him and cause him to be well below average? Definitely-but if not for Izturis's injuries, he would already be an average to above average shortstop with the way he was developing. His numbers said that his bat was etting continually better every single year of his minor league and major league career before the injuries with no hiccups or setbacks-the first huge setback was the big injuries, and it will have to be seen if that is going to cause him to lose his development or if he can resume where he left off.

 

Considering his shoulder is degeneratively arthritic, he's going to have to deal with injuries for a while.

 

And it doesn't matter why he's bad. The fact that he's likely to be bad is grounds enough to want to see a better player at that position.

[Danny82]

I'm not changing your point. I was simply challenging a statement made in one of your posts. A statement I directly quoted in my initial post. My challenge to that point was the scope of my "argument." I'm not "trying to get out" of anything. Regardless, there's really nothing else to be said between us on this point. Edited February 26, 2007 by Danny82

[RichHillIsABeast]

He's shown flashes of being a very good ballplayer. I doubt the Cubs give up on him so easily. He just wasn't emotionally ready to become an ML ballplayer.

So did Jason DuBois.

 

Personally, I think it was his attitude. He was too complacent with being in Chicago instead of working his butt off.

And where is your information for this? That's conjecture, plain and simple.

 

His bat will be fine. I don't see .800 OPS from him being out of line with his minor league numbers or ability. With stellar defense, which he's fully capable of, he's very much a quality ML SS.

I'm sorry, but that is way out of line. His minor league career OPS is .692.

 

Last year, in 534 ABs, he put up a .610 OPS. His OBP was .271 and his K/BB total was 17/109.

 

I actually agree with his defensive skills, and think those errors were just flukes. But he's looking like a Neifi Perez at best right now.

 

Jason Dubois shouldn't be compared with Cedeno. They have nothing in common.

 

Any time I saw Cedeno (BP and FP) he looked lackadaisical. Not to mention Bruce saying he needed to do some growing up. So no, it's not just conjecture.

 

It's pretty silly to use his minor league career numbers when he showed so much offensive progression as he advanced through the system. He was a whopping 17 when he was playing rookie ball for the Cubs and didn't really start turning it on until AA after a decent start in rookie ball. Sorry he didn't take off right away. That shouldn't be held against him. His K/BB was trending in the right direction the last few seasons before his first full season in the majors. Give the kid a break.

 

Has Cedeno ever OPSed .800+? Yup, in rookie ball and AAA. It's not so far fetched.

 

And Bill James projected Cedeno to hit .310/.358/.442/.800 last season.

[CubColtPacer]

From breaking down the numbers, I can't see how you would think there is absolutely no chance that Izturis will be just fine for a SS this year. Is there a pretty decent chance that the injuries will hurt him and cause him to be well below average? Definitely-but if not for Izturis's injuries, he would already be an average to above average shortstop with the way he was developing. His numbers said that his bat was etting continually better every single year of his minor league and major league career before the injuries with no hiccups or setbacks-the first huge setback was the big injuries, and it will have to be seen if that is going to cause him to lose his development or if he can resume where he left off.

 

Considering his shoulder is degeneratively arthritic, he's going to have to deal with injuries for a while.

 

And it doesn't matter why he's bad. The fact that he's likely to be bad is grounds enough to want to see a better player at that position.

 

I'm saying that it's decently likely that he won't be horrible this year. If he is, then he will be replaced either during the season or after the season-a closer look at his numbers shows though that he has a much, much better chance of putting up an average season for a SS than his career numbers would indicate. From that analysis, I have high hopes for Izturis, but I will want him pulled if he is not getting the job done at mid-season.

[USSoccer]

Regardless, there's really nothing else to be said between us on this point.

 

Fair enough.

[soccer10k]

He's shown flashes of being a very good ballplayer. I doubt the Cubs give up on him so easily. He just wasn't emotionally ready to become an ML ballplayer.

So did Jason DuBois.

 

Personally, I think it was his attitude. He was too complacent with being in Chicago instead of working his butt off.

And where is your information for this? That's conjecture, plain and simple.

 

His bat will be fine. I don't see .800 OPS from him being out of line with his minor league numbers or ability. With stellar defense, which he's fully capable of, he's very much a quality ML SS.

I'm sorry, but that is way out of line. His minor league career OPS is .692.

 

Last year, in 534 ABs, he put up a .610 OPS. His OBP was .271 and his K/BB total was 17/109.

 

I actually agree with his defensive skills, and think those errors were just flukes. But he's looking like a Neifi Perez at best right now.

 

Jason Dubois shouldn't be compared with Cedeno. They have nothing in common.

 

Any time I saw Cedeno (BP and FP) he looked lackadaisical. Not to mention Bruce saying he needed to do some growing up. So no, it's not just conjecture.

 

It's pretty silly to use his minor league career numbers when he showed so much offensive progression as he advanced through the system. He was a whopping 17 when he was playing rookie ball for the Cubs and didn't really start turning it on until AA after a decent start in rookie ball. Sorry he didn't take off right away. That shouldn't be held against him. His K/BB was trending in the right direction the last few seasons before his first full season in the majors. Give the kid a break.

 

Has Cedeno ever OPSed .800+? Yup, in rookie ball and AAA. It's not so far fetched.

 

And Bill James projected Cedeno to hit .310/.358/.442/.800 last season.

 

Bill James must have been on some pretty strong drugs when he made that prediction.

[RichHillIsABeast]

He's shown flashes of being a very good ballplayer. I doubt the Cubs give up on him so easily. He just wasn't emotionally ready to become an ML ballplayer.

So did Jason DuBois.

 

Personally, I think it was his attitude. He was too complacent with being in Chicago instead of working his butt off.

And where is your information for this? That's conjecture, plain and simple.

 

His bat will be fine. I don't see .800 OPS from him being out of line with his minor league numbers or ability. With stellar defense, which he's fully capable of, he's very much a quality ML SS.

I'm sorry, but that is way out of line. His minor league career OPS is .692.

 

Last year, in 534 ABs, he put up a .610 OPS. His OBP was .271 and his K/BB total was 17/109.

 

I actually agree with his defensive skills, and think those errors were just flukes. But he's looking like a Neifi Perez at best right now.

 

Jason Dubois shouldn't be compared with Cedeno. They have nothing in common.

 

Any time I saw Cedeno (BP and FP) he looked lackadaisical. Not to mention Bruce saying he needed to do some growing up. So no, it's not just conjecture.

 

It's pretty silly to use his minor league career numbers when he showed so much offensive progression as he advanced through the system. He was a whopping 17 when he was playing rookie ball for the Cubs and didn't really start turning it on until AA after a decent start in rookie ball. Sorry he didn't take off right away. That shouldn't be held against him. His K/BB was trending in the right direction the last few seasons before his first full season in the majors. Give the kid a break.

 

Has Cedeno ever OPSed .800+? Yup, in rookie ball and AAA. It's not so far fetched.

 

And Bill James projected Cedeno to hit .310/.358/.442/.800 last season.

 

Bill James must have been on some pretty strong drugs when he made that prediction.

 

It was determined from his minor league numbers and a handful of AB in the majors. Pure statistical projections. Again, it's not far fetched at all to think that Ronny Cedeno can put up .800 OPS in the major leagues.

 

Will he this season or next season? Probably not, but the potential is there.

[BigbadB]

Yeah, even though Cedeno may reach the potential to have an 800 OPS season, it's not a fair projection for him in his first full season in the majors.

[CuseCubFan69]

Yeah, even though Cedeno may reach the potential to have an 800 OPS season, it's not a fair projection for him in his first full season in the majors.

 

I saw some very good AB's out of Cedeno last year and I hope that was a sign for things to come. I hope Lou+co can continue to build on that. I also like having Tremmal (sp) around as a coach, that'll be good for Ronny IMO.

[radarluv1]

i'm hoping it doesnt take half a season to replace itzy if he's putting up 650 OPS. ronny needs to have a good start in iowa and force jim's hand here. no other team is going to make their ss available for a trade the first few months of the season.

[CubColtPacer]

i'm hoping it doesnt take half a season to replace itzy if he's putting up 650 OPS. ronny needs to have a good start in iowa and force jim's hand here. no other team is going to make their ss available for a trade the first few months of the season.

 

I don't know if 650 will be enough to replace Izzy with Cedeno very quickly-I mean, Cedeno would have to improve a pretty good amount from last year to be an improvement over those numbers. 650 might be bad enough for them to make a trade at mid-season, but not to be replaced by Cedeno without injuries.

[CuseCubFan69]

i'm hoping it doesnt take half a season to replace itzy if he's putting up 650 OPS. ronny needs to have a good start in iowa and force jim's hand here. no other team is going to make their ss available for a trade the first few months of the season.

 

I don't know if 650 will be enough to replace Izzy with Cedeno very quickly-I mean, Cedeno would have to improve a pretty good amount from last year to be an improvement over those numbers. 650 might be bad enough for them to make a trade at mid-season, but not to be replaced by Cedeno without injuries.

 

It might depend on how well the rest of the team is hitting too. You might be able to carry Izturis if the rest of the team is hitting well but if they are struggling, it's going to hurt having his bat in the lineup at 650.

[radarluv1]

and i'm expecting non-spectacular D from him, too. but hopefully it wont matter as we score 5 runs/game and the pitching staff stays healthy. 8-)

[CuseCubFan69]

and i'm expecting non-spectacular D from him, too. but hopefully it wont matter as we score 5 runs/game and the pitching staff stays healthy. 8-)

 

It's actually kind of nice to have some decent hitting pitchers too. It would be kind of funny to see Lou pinch hit Izzy and then let the pitcher hit.

[CubColtPacer]

and i'm expecting non-spectacular D from him, too. but hopefully it wont matter as we score 5 runs/game and the pitching staff stays healthy. 8-)

 

From what I've heard, Izturis is not one of those players that makes it "look flashy", but rather than he's just very smooth and very consistent in what he does. I'll be interested to see people's opinions on this at mid-season, and I guess the extent of the injuries will be much better known by then.

[goonys evil twin]

i'm hoping it doesnt take half a season to replace itzy if he's putting up 650 OPS. ronny needs to have a good start in iowa and force jim's hand here. no other team is going to make their ss available for a trade the first few months of the season.

 

I don't know if 650 will be enough to replace Izzy with Cedeno very quickly-I mean, Cedeno would have to improve a pretty good amount from last year to be an improvement over those numbers. 650 might be bad enough for them to make a trade at mid-season, but not to be replaced by Cedeno without injuries.

 

It might depend on how well the rest of the team is hitting too. You might be able to carry Izturis if the rest of the team is hitting well but if they are struggling, it's going to hurt having his bat in the lineup at 650.

 

More importantly, it's pretty safe to assume nobody in the Cubs organization is going to think at all about a 650 OPS, what it means, and whether it should be replaced. If Izzy is hitting .275, with a .310 OBP and .315 SLG, they aren't going to be thinking about his 625 OPS.

 

He's probably going to have to do something like hit .220 for 3 months with less than stellar defense before they think about replacing him.

[CuseCubFan69]

and i'm expecting non-spectacular D from him, too. but hopefully it wont matter as we score 5 runs/game and the pitching staff stays healthy. 8-)

 

From what I've heard, Izturis is not one of those players that makes it "look flashy", but rather than he's just very smooth and very consistent in what he does. I'll be interested to see people's opinions on this at mid-season, and I guess the extent of the injuries will be much better known by then.

 

I'm pretty excited to see how the whole team fits together and how Izturis looks is something I'm really curious about. Actually the whole middle D except for Barrett is going to be interesting to see develop.

[CubColtPacer]

i'm hoping it doesnt take half a season to replace itzy if he's putting up 650 OPS. ronny needs to have a good start in iowa and force jim's hand here. no other team is going to make their ss available for a trade the first few months of the season.

 

I don't know if 650 will be enough to replace Izzy with Cedeno very quickly-I mean, Cedeno would have to improve a pretty good amount from last year to be an improvement over those numbers. 650 might be bad enough for them to make a trade at mid-season, but not to be replaced by Cedeno without injuries.

 

It might depend on how well the rest of the team is hitting too. You might be able to carry Izturis if the rest of the team is hitting well but if they are struggling, it's going to hurt having his bat in the lineup at 650.

 

More importantly, it's pretty safe to assume nobody in the Cubs organization is going to think at all about a 650 OPS, what it means, and whether it should be replaced. If Izzy is hitting .275, with a .310 OBP and .315 SLG, they aren't going to be thinking about his 625 OPS.

 

He's probably going to have to do something like hit .220 for 3 months with less than stellar defense before they think about replacing him.

 

That's a good point, and you're probably right about your projections. They know he hasn't played much in quite a while, so I think that the organization is going to at least give him 2-3 months to get acclimated again before thinking about replacing him. If he gets hurt, that's when Cedeno possibly has a chance to earn the job before Izturis comes back though.