Lou Says Cubs Will Be Playing in October

[cbbryan]

When you put such little emphasis on defense at the SS position, I can understand why you feel that way.

 

At the expense of having a player who's a negative factor on the offense? You're right I don't. It's not mutually exclusive; you can find a good defense SS who isn't incompetent when he hits.

 

I don't buy that Cesar Izturis can suck at the plate but be an asset simply because he plays good defense at SS. This team is not good enough to have a complete cipher in the batting order.

 

10 years ago, Cesar might have been a HOF cliber SS ala Ozzie Smith (career .262 hitter)

[Rob]

When you put such little emphasis on defense at the SS position, I can understand why you feel that way.

 

At the expense of having a player who's a negative factor on the offense? You're right I don't. It's not mutually exclusive; you can find a good defense SS who isn't incompetent when he hits.

 

I don't buy that Cesar Izturis can suck at the plate but be an asset simply because he plays good defense at SS. This team is not good enough to have a complete cipher in the batting order.

 

10 years ago, Cesar might have been a HOF cliber SS ala Ozzie Smith (career .262 hitter)

 

Career 0.075 IsoD... compared to 0.035 for Izturis.

 

And Ozzie was so much better with the glove it's not even funny.

[Soul]

4) Supplanting Izturis at SS

 

The light bulb that went on for Ronnie in the second half of the winter where his walk rate quadrupled is a very hopeful sign. He may not be the 2003 version of Izturis in the field, but neither is the 2006 version of Izturis. If Ronnie could push Cesar out of a job by the break, it could be great thing for this team.

 

I certainly would look forward to supplanting Izturis @ SS.

 

But Cedeno just doesn't look like a major-league caliber ballplayer to me. I'm glad the kid is working on his eye; maybe he could work on it a little more and see what happens in a year or two.

 

We'll need to make a deal or else SS is going to be a sore spot all year, IMHO.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Everyone is saying if Prior is 2003 form we should be NL favorites. I think if Prior just pitches ~175 innings, has a ~4.00 ERA, and no one else has major injuries, we're the NL favorites. If Prior is in 2003 form, we are league favorites in my opinion. There doesn't seem to be a dominating team out there this year.

 

As for whoever said Izturis could improve to a league-average SS...that is all we need out of him.

[cbbryan]

When you put such little emphasis on defense at the SS position, I can understand why you feel that way.

 

At the expense of having a player who's a negative factor on the offense? You're right I don't. It's not mutually exclusive; you can find a good defense SS who isn't incompetent when he hits.

 

I don't buy that Cesar Izturis can suck at the plate but be an asset simply because he plays good defense at SS. This team is not good enough to have a complete cipher in the batting order.

 

10 years ago, Cesar might have been a HOF cliber SS ala Ozzie Smith (career .262 hitter)

 

Career 0.075 IsoD... compared to 0.035 for Izturis.

 

And Ozzie was so much better with the glove it's not even funny.

 

Thanks, I was kidding. Guess that's my fault, I should have been more clear!

[Soul]

Everyone is saying if Prior is 2003 form we should be NL favorites. I think if Prior just pitches ~175 innings, has a ~4.00 ERA, and no one else has major injuries, we're the NL favorites. If Prior is in 2003 form, we are league favorites in my opinion. There doesn't seem to be a dominating team out there this year.

 

As for whoever said Izturis could improve to a league-average SS...that is all we need out of him.

 

Really? I think we need stellar defense from him just to keep from vomiting every time we see him on the lineup card.

 

He's going to need to save a heck of a lot of runs defensively to make up for that bat. We need GG defense from Izzy, IMO.

[MPrior]

I would include Lee being able to produce at relatively close to 2005 levels to the list of keys to the season.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Everyone is saying if Prior is 2003 form we should be NL favorites. I think if Prior just pitches ~175 innings, has a ~4.00 ERA, and no one else has major injuries, we're the NL favorites. If Prior is in 2003 form, we are league favorites in my opinion. There doesn't seem to be a dominating team out there this year.

 

As for whoever said Izturis could improve to a league-average SS...that is all we need out of him.

 

Really? I think we need stellar defense from him just to keep from vomiting every time we see him on the lineup card.

 

He's going to need to save a heck of a lot of runs defensively to make up for that bat. We need GG defense from Izzy, IMO.

 

Oh, well yeah, definitely. I meant if he was a league-average SS at the plate, that's all we'd need out of him offensively. We DEFINITELY need gold glove defense out of him.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

4) Supplanting Izturis at SS

 

The light bulb that went on for Ronnie in the second half of the winter where his walk rate quadrupled is a very hopeful sign. He may not be the 2003 version of Izturis in the field, but neither is the 2006 version of Izturis. If Ronnie could push Cesar out of a job by the break, it could be great thing for this team.

Placing the shortstop situation so high is the polar opposite of “Neifi saved us” :D

 

Though it is too early to give up on Cedeno, it is extremely unlikely to have improved enough to be a major impact this year. Even if he improves it the offensive area, he showed himself to be a horrendous defender. Healthy, Izturis is still is an above average defender.

 

I’m surprised you are so down on Izturis. As 22 year old starter he had a .253 OBP. At 23 .282, at 24 .330, and at 25 a .322 the first half of the season. Though hardly stellar, it shows great improvement for a young player. Then he didn’t hit a wall, but the wall hit him. Tommy john and back problems, then the hammy problems. He was hurting late in 2005 and 2006 with only about 250 ab in 1 ½ seasons since. If he has a health season, and with good coaching, I don’t think it would be a stretch to say he could continue his earlier progress and end up in the .350 or so obp range. Obviously, even if he hangs out with Barry Bonds, he will never hit for power.

 

If this was All-Star break 2005, would you have considered Cesar an improving young player?

[Guest]

Other than the mental lapses, I'm not sure why you characterize Ronny as a "horrible" defender. I think those disappear with more experience and more success at the plate. I think, as many players do, that he carried his struggles from one portion of the game to another. I think he'll at least diminish the gaffes to the point of being normal - every player as a couple of those per year.

 

Do we really know what kind of defender Izturis is at this point? He has two of the big three injuries to kill defensive ability - bad legs and a bum wing. Let's hope he doesn't get a bad back this year to complete the trifecta.

 

There's certainly a chance Cesar is an improving player and we'll see him stay completely healthy and trot out a .350 OBP this year. But would you wager even odds where I take an OBP below .300, you take an OBP above .350 and anything in the middle we call a draw?

 

Here's my thinking on Ronny's offense:

 

In 2004, he played with Von Joshua at West Tenn and really turned his career to that point around. He didn't really walk a great deal more, but reportedly became more selective at the plate and chose his pitches to drive. In 2005, he really continued that success at Iowa. In 2006, he struggled initially at the plate as many young players do in the first full year. To overcome this, he had coaches preaching aggressiveness at the plate and he spiraled down as the year went on. I was tempted to write him off because of his lack of adjustments as the season wore on.

 

What I saw this winter gave me some hope.

 

He started off miserably. I think he had either one or two walks in his first 100 at bats. His average and slugging were awful. But then something clicked. He started walking enough that by the end of the season his walk rate was better than 1 per 10 PA's. By choosing his pitches more carefully and letting the game come to him, he started to really drive the ball and his power spiked.

 

I don't know if that change is sustainable. I certainly wouldn't just automatically throw him into the lineup over Cesar and run with it. But I'm really looking forward to seeing what he'll do this year under either Joshua or Perry. And I'm hoping that by the ASB, we would be very comfortable with Ronny at SS.

[Guest]

Oh, the reason I place SS so high is that it is the easiest position on the team to upgrade from last year. We were so awful there last season that even an average performance would be a huge asset to the team.

[CuseCubFan69]

Oh, the reason I place SS so high is that it is the easiest position on the team to upgrade from last year. We were so awful there last season that even an average performance would be a huge asset to the team.

 

I don't have a lot of confidence in Cedeno and I don't see him having offensive numbers that are that much better than Izturis. I need to hear another suggestion for SS that makes this better than just Cedeno.

[CuseCubFan69]

Here are the keys Lou lists as needed for a successful season:

 

"That's going to be big for us," Piniella said. "Soriano gives us a lot of energy in center field with his speed out there and it also frees up the corner spots for Cliff Floyd, (Matt) Murton, Jacques Jones and Ward. If you ask me what the keys to this season are going to be, I'd tell you Soriano's successful conversion to center field, keeping my shortstop (Cesar Izturis) healthy and getting our closer (Ryan Dempster) back, confidence-wise."

My five keys to a successful Cubs season:

 

1) A healthy and fully recuperated Mark Prior

 

There is nothing bigger than this that is still up in the air. Adding a 2003/2004 Mark Prior to the rotation would make this the team to beat in the NL.

 

2) Soriano hitting like 2006 instead of 2005

 

Biggest x factor on the offensive side

 

3) Hill is for real

 

If Hill can show that his control gains from 2005-2006 and that his home run prevention from 2006 are sustainable...he's going to be a very, very good pitcher. Because he's going to strike a whole bunch of people out.

 

4) Supplanting Izturis at SS

 

The light bulb that went on for Ronnie in the second half of the winter where his walk rate quadrupled is a very hopeful sign. He may not be the 2003 version of Izturis in the field, but neither is the 2006 version of Izturis. If Ronnie could push Cesar out of a job by the break, it could be great thing for this team.

 

5) Wood able to close

 

If Kerry is healthy enough to pitch a closer's load from the pen, we don't have to be concerned with whether or not Dempster can close. If Ryan hangs onto the job through great performance, fantastic. Otherwise we have a potential dominator out there if he can go.

 

 

If these five things go the Cubs way (and they all very well could), this team will be a powerhouse. Heck, if even the first few of them go the Cubs way, we'll be the team to beat in the NL.

 

I hope Hill is for real too. I think he'll be fine and if he has figured this game out I'll be thrilled. But....he has to be able to pitch well again you're right. I wonder what his workout was over the off season?

[cubweiser03]

Dusty: "My teams are always in contention in September, I dont play meaningless games."

Lou: "We are playing in October"

 

Damn right Lou.

 

Izzy is near the bottom on my priority list for this year, no team is perfect, if they dont go to the playoffs because of him they musta had a helluva year otherwise. Don't get me wrong, it is important he do well. Nobody in the NL comes close to scaring me. If Prior is healthy and solid they are ones to beat. Can still make the playoffs but much more has to go right.

[Jehrico]

Other than the mental lapses, I'm not sure why you characterize Ronny as a "horrible" defender. I think those disappear with more experience and more success at the plate. I think, as many players do, that he carried his struggles from one portion of the game to another. I think he'll at least diminish the gaffes to the point of being normal - every player as a couple of those per year.

 

Do we really know what kind of defender Izturis is at this point? He has two of the big three injuries to kill defensive ability - bad legs and a bum wing. Let's hope he doesn't get a bad back this year to complete the trifecta.

 

There's certainly a chance Cesar is an improving player and we'll see him stay completely healthy and trot out a .350 OBP this year. But would you wager even odds where I take an OBP below .300, you take an OBP above .350 and anything in the middle we call a draw?

 

Here's my thinking on Ronny's offense:

 

In 2004, he played with Von Joshua at West Tenn and really turned his career to that point around. He didn't really walk a great deal more, but reportedly became more selective at the plate and chose his pitches to drive. In 2005, he really continued that success at Iowa. In 2006, he struggled initially at the plate as many young players do in the first full year. To overcome this, he had coaches preaching aggressiveness at the plate and he spiraled down as the year went on. I was tempted to write him off because of his lack of adjustments as the season wore on.

 

What I saw this winter gave me some hope.

 

He started off miserably. I think he had either one or two walks in his first 100 at bats. His average and slugging were awful. But then something clicked. He started walking enough that by the end of the season his walk rate was better than 1 per 10 PA's. By choosing his pitches more carefully and letting the game come to him, he started to really drive the ball and his power spiked.

 

I don't know if that change is sustainable. I certainly wouldn't just automatically throw him into the lineup over Cesar and run with it. But I'm really looking forward to seeing what he'll do this year under either Joshua or Perry. And I'm hoping that by the ASB, we would be very comfortable with Ronny at SS.

I'm with you on Ronny. Key with him I think is he has to be handled correctly in order to establish his confidence at that level. His continued sucktitude last year was due in part, I think, to Dusty and crew continuing to tell him he was taking good cuts and to keep doing what he was doing. I think he will benefit more than anyone on the roster by the change in coaching staff if given the chance.

[Knightlife_in_Lubbock]

Izturis' health isn't all that important.

 

If he plays gold glove caliber defense and hits about .280+ in the 8 hole, I think his health is definitely important.

 

If Cesar Izturis hits over .280 I'll buy everyone here Coke. Because the odds are signifigantly stacked against him.

 

As was noted, his career OBP is .295. He's only OBP's over .300 twice, and one of those was a hearty .302.

 

He's terrible, and he'd help the team more on the DL than he would in the batting order.

 

 

Watch it Micheal Irvin is lurking now that he is unemployed.

[CuseCubFan69]

Other than the mental lapses, I'm not sure why you characterize Ronny as a "horrible" defender. I think those disappear with more experience and more success at the plate. I think, as many players do, that he carried his struggles from one portion of the game to another. I think he'll at least diminish the gaffes to the point of being normal - every player as a couple of those per year.

 

Do we really know what kind of defender Izturis is at this point? He has two of the big three injuries to kill defensive ability - bad legs and a bum wing. Let's hope he doesn't get a bad back this year to complete the trifecta.

 

There's certainly a chance Cesar is an improving player and we'll see him stay completely healthy and trot out a .350 OBP this year. But would you wager even odds where I take an OBP below .300, you take an OBP above .350 and anything in the middle we call a draw?

 

Here's my thinking on Ronny's offense:

 

In 2004, he played with Von Joshua at West Tenn and really turned his career to that point around. He didn't really walk a great deal more, but reportedly became more selective at the plate and chose his pitches to drive. In 2005, he really continued that success at Iowa. In 2006, he struggled initially at the plate as many young players do in the first full year. To overcome this, he had coaches preaching aggressiveness at the plate and he spiraled down as the year went on. I was tempted to write him off because of his lack of adjustments as the season wore on.

 

What I saw this winter gave me some hope.

 

He started off miserably. I think he had either one or two walks in his first 100 at bats. His average and slugging were awful. But then something clicked. He started walking enough that by the end of the season his walk rate was better than 1 per 10 PA's. By choosing his pitches more carefully and letting the game come to him, he started to really drive the ball and his power spiked.

 

I don't know if that change is sustainable. I certainly wouldn't just automatically throw him into the lineup over Cesar and run with it. But I'm really looking forward to seeing what he'll do this year under either Joshua or Perry. And I'm hoping that by the ASB, we would be very comfortable with Ronny at SS.

I'm with you on Ronny. Key with him I think is he has to be handled correctly in order to establish his confidence at that level. His continued sucktitude last year was due in part, I think, to Dusty and crew continuing to tell him he was taking good cuts and to keep doing what he was doing. I think he will benefit more than anyone on the roster by the change in coaching staff if given the chance.

 

What I've noticed is that a lot of posters think that Lou and company can help a lot of players but I never see Izturis in this equation. If Lou can help him see the light it's possible the Cubs might have a decent SS there. If he take get Izzy to be more selective it's possible he might not be the negative that many think he is going to be. I'm not saying this is going to happen but as I feel for a lot of Lou topics let's wait and see what develops.

[Wheelimus]

I simply want the best man for the job to win it.

 

If we magically get the Cesar that put in that great half season before being injured, cool. If we get the other Cesar, then he has to be the games most expensive late inning defensive replacement.

[Jon]

I would include Lee being able to produce at relatively close to 2005 levels to the list of keys to the season.

I'm not sure I'd put that quite even with the big question mark that is Alfonso Soriano, but that's at least a close second in biggest factors for the offense.

[hardcorecubfan]

I hope it is the playoffs and not a double header rain-out we had in Late august