Hill a long reliever?

[CUBZ99]

Who wrote it?

 

Looks like it's the new Sun-Times beat writer for the Cubs, Gordon Wittenmyer.

 

last year he covered the twins. on xm homeplate the other day he pretty much said he doesnt know anything about the cubs

 

That makes me feel better about the guy. I'll wait until he learns a little bit about the Cubs before I give up on him. If he saw Rich Hill pitch, he'd probably be singing a different tune.

 

how does that make you feel better about him? it makes me think he's an incompetent moron who is incapable of any research whatsoever.

 

Wow, this guy is taking a beating. His other articles this spring have been pretty good and his conjecture that Hill could end up as the long man, is not that far fetched. Almost every beat writer so far has reported that the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation are open, and the battle is between Prior, Hill, Miller, and Marshall, with Hill having an edge. If Miller, Prior out pitch him in Spring Training it is possible that Hill may be the long man. Doesn't mean that it is necessarily fair to Hill or the right move, but it is no more far fetched than some of the other stories that have been printed.

[abuck1220]

i was referring to him admitting that he didn't know anything about the cubs.

 

i wouldn't be surprised if he was right about hill.

[Mephistopheles]

oh, good times.

 

I'm with you. With Guzman and Hill possibly in Iowa, the I-Cubs may have nearly as good a rotation as the Cubs if Lilly and Marquis can't keep the ball in the park.

Let's ask ZiPS....

 

3.46 Zambrano

4.09 Prior

4.95 Marquis

4.26 Lilly

4.97 Miller

 

Average ~ 4.35

 

3.65 Hill

4.90 Guzman

4.64 Mateo

5.34 Marshall

4.94 Gallagher

 

Average ~ 4.69

 

I dunno if Gallagher will hold down the five spot in Iowa, but for the sake of argument let's include him. It's close but that's a very negatve projection for a healthy Angel Guzman.

 

If you do the same averages using PECOTA it's:

 

4.64 ~ Chicago

4.83 ~ Iowa (only b/c of Mateo's 5.42

 

Last but certainly not least, Bill James Projections of Eternal Optimism would grant the Chicago Cubs with an average ERA of 4.06, thanks to the 3.98 projection to Wade Miller in all of 40 innings. Oh well.

 

It is close. Which is sad. very sad.

[Sarcastic]

oh, good times.

 

I'm with you. With Guzman and Hill possibly in Iowa, the I-Cubs may have nearly as good a rotation as the Cubs if Lilly and Marquis can't keep the ball in the park.

Let's ask ZiPS....

 

3.46 Zambrano

4.09 Prior

4.95 Marquis

4.26 Lilly

4.97 Miller

 

Average ~ 4.35

 

3.65 Hill

4.90 Guzman

4.64 Mateo

5.34 Marshall

4.94 Gallagher

 

Average ~ 4.69

 

I dunno if Gallagher will hold down the five spot in Iowa, but for the sake of argument let's include him. It's close but that's a very negatve projection for a healthy Angel Guzman.

 

If you do the same averages using PECOTA it's:

 

4.64 ~ Chicago

4.83 ~ Iowa (only b/c of Mateo's 5.42

 

Last but certainly not least, Bill James Projections of Eternal Optimism would grant the Chicago Cubs with an average ERA of 4.06, thanks to the 3.98 projection to Wade Miller in all of 40 innings. Oh well.

 

It is close. Which is sad. very sad.

 

I know that these projections are much more accurate than the, "well, I think..." method, but doesn't it seem that they are a little optimistic about some of the minor league pitchers? Who really believes that Mateo could be a decent #4? All of those projections (barring Guzman's) seem pretty optimistic to me. In addition, they don't seem to project returns from injury well. If Prior and Miller are both completely healthy, it seems likely that they will be pitching a bit better than their projections. If Miller does that badly, it wouldn't be long before he gets replaced.

[jam1975]

I really have a hard time believing that Hill won't be in the rotation, barring a really really terrible showing in ST.

 

I seem to remember always hearing that breaking ball pitchers always faired worse in the dry Arizona air since the ball doesn't have as much movement. Is this something that has affected Hill in past spring trainings? Does anyone remember how he pitched last year in ST?

[David]

This is insanity, guys. Stop flipping out over the speculation of a few local sportswriters who have earned zero credibility over the years.

 

Hill will be in the rotation, barring injury or a flat out terrible spring, for the Chicago Cubs this season. I don't doubt it for one second.

 

I'll go even further. There is no way that Wade Miller is going to go out and impress everyone into giving him a rotation spot. He's done. He hasn't even been a very good pitcher in what, 5 years? At best, he'll have a solid spring and take a long relief spot.

 

This is my opinion. Obviously, you don't have to take it as fact. But it's worth just as much as the opinions of these hack writers.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I really have a hard time believing that Hill won't be in the rotation, barring a really really terrible showing in ST.

 

I seem to remember always hearing that breaking ball pitchers always faired worse in the dry Arizona air since the ball doesn't have as much movement. Is this something that has affected Hill in past spring trainings? Does anyone remember how he pitched last year in ST?

 

Hill was bouncing curveballs in the dirt 5 feet in front of the plate last ST. It was enough to cost him a spot in the rotation.

[UMFan83]

Sweet so I can plan for my vacation in October without having to worry about it interfering with the postseason.

 

If Hill does not start the season in the rotation, I am going to seek out Lou Piniella and throw my shoe at him. What a stupid, idiotic organization if this is true. Stupid stupid stupid stupid. 99 years and counting

[YearofDaCubs]

It would be an embarrassment to the organization if their best starter the last two months of the season (better than Zambrano) does not have a rotation spot the following season because they signed someone who sported a six-plus ERA.

 

If that happens the Cubs deserve to lose.

 

i would mull rooting against them if that happened.

Agreed. They would deserve to lose fans. I doubt it happens though. If Hill is clearly the better starting pitcher I think he will pitch and start. I think Miller would be the first to go over Marquis and others. His contract is manageable and can be easily released if necessary.

[mspcanes1]

He's not making a ton of money so it's not financially awkward to bench him as it would be Marquis.

 

for some reason i don't see sweet lou having a problem benching anyone regardless of their salary. in fact if management tried to step in and say something about it, i could see sweet lou beatin' some ass :evil:

[UMFan83]

It would be an embarrassment to the organization if their best starter the last two months of the season (better than Zambrano) does not have a rotation spot the following season because they signed someone who sported a six-plus ERA.

 

If that happens the Cubs deserve to lose.

 

i would mull rooting against them if that happened.

Agreed. They would deserve to lose fans. I doubt it happens though. If Hill is clearly the better starting pitcher I think he will pitch and start. I think Miller would be the first to go over Marquis and others. His contract is manageable and can be easily released if necessary.

 

Whats the date that we can start trading newly signed players? Isn't it like June 1? If he pitches well out of a long relief role, we'd at least be able to get a midlevel prospect for him.

[Danny82]

I am simply dumbfounded by the worked up responses in this thread.

 

Until you actually hear or see something from the organization that indicates that Hill won't be in the rotation, why get all worked up about it? Seems like a lot of wasted energy to me.

[Jehrico]

Sweet so I can plan for my vacation in October without having to worry about it interfering with the postseason.

 

If Hill does not start the season in the rotation, I am going to seek out Lou Piniella and throw my shoe at him. What a stupid, idiotic organization if this is true. Stupid stupid stupid stupid. 99 years and counting

If both Miller and Hill do well, I think Hill gets the spot before Miller. Miller should be hoping for someone else to bomb out.

[abuck1220]

I really have a hard time believing that Hill won't be in the rotation, barring a really really terrible showing in ST.

 

I seem to remember always hearing that breaking ball pitchers always faired worse in the dry Arizona air since the ball doesn't have as much movement. Is this something that has affected Hill in past spring trainings? Does anyone remember how he pitched last year in ST?

 

Hill was bouncing curveballs in the dirt 5 feet in front of the plate last ST. It was enough to cost him a spot in the rotation.

 

i don't think that's the case at all. if i remember correctly, he had one or two really bad outings and was pretty good the rest of the time. he was lights out one time when i saw him in arizona.

[abuck1220]

I am simply dumbfounded by the worked up responses in this thread.

 

Until you actually hear or see something from the organization that indicates that Hill won't be in the rotation, why get all worked up about it? Seems like a lot of wasted energy to me.

 

you're right...hill has never been kept out of the rotation at the expense of a higher paid, less productive veteran.

[David]

I am simply dumbfounded by the worked up responses in this thread.

 

Until you actually hear or see something from the organization that indicates that Hill won't be in the rotation, why get all worked up about it? Seems like a lot of wasted energy to me.

 

QFT

[CubColtPacer]

I am simply dumbfounded by the worked up responses in this thread.

 

Until you actually hear or see something from the organization that indicates that Hill won't be in the rotation, why get all worked up about it? Seems like a lot of wasted energy to me.

 

you're right...hill has never been kept out of the rotation at the expense of a higher paid, less productive veteran.

 

Well, actually sort of yes, sort of no. Hill's spot turned into Sean Marshall last year, so a veteran was not the person who beat Hill out. You could argue that he should have been in the rotation in June, but that's just one month-that's hardly a convincing sample size for Hill being left out because the other player is a veteran.

[abuck1220]

you really only think there has been one month of baseball where hill should have been in the rotation but wasn't?

[Jon]

Hill being left out of the rotation is a possibility at this point. He probably won't be the one sitting at AAA or in the bullpen this time, but it is certainly a possibility.

 

But that's all a result of what already happened. Hendry wasted $21 million and there's no going back.

 

The talk right now coming from the media or the organization is rather pointless, though. Cactus League action has yet to being and the outcome won't be determined for weeks.

[CubColtPacer]

I really have a hard time believing that Hill won't be in the rotation, barring a really really terrible showing in ST.

 

I seem to remember always hearing that breaking ball pitchers always faired worse in the dry Arizona air since the ball doesn't have as much movement. Is this something that has affected Hill in past spring trainings? Does anyone remember how he pitched last year in ST?

 

Hill was bouncing curveballs in the dirt 5 feet in front of the plate last ST. It was enough to cost him a spot in the rotation.

 

i don't think that's the case at all. if i remember correctly, he had one or two really bad outings and was pretty good the rest of the time. he was lights out one time when i saw him in arizona.

 

Hill's outings last spring:

 

2 innings/1 hit/0 runs/1K/0BB

2 innings/4 hits/4 runs/4K/1BB/1HR allowed

2 innings/5 hits/5 runs/1K/2BB

3 innings/0 hits/0 runs/5K/3BB

4 innings/5 hits/1 run/4K/0BB

2 innings/2 hits/2 runs/3K/4BB

 

It's certainly possible I missed one or two of his outings last spring-if I did, it was not intentional. It looks like he had a little bit of everything-2 really good innings, 7 good innings, 2 below average innings, and 4 horrible innings. It wasn't the best spring for him, although he did get better at the end until his shaky last outing.

[Danny82]

you really only think there has been one month of baseball where hill should have been in the rotation but wasn't?

 

He didn't give much of an indication that he belonged in the majors the first half of last season. Hard to say there is a "should have" there when he was getting shallacked most every time they sent him out early on.

[CubColtPacer]

you really only think there has been one month of baseball where hill should have been in the rotation but wasn't?

 

It's possible that Hill should have come up faster from the minors in early 2006 when the Cubs starters were struggling, but I agree more with the Cubs that they wanted to get his confidence up at that point. I do agree that once they brought him up, they probably should have kept him there, but I don't see all this other time that he should have been in the rotation but wasn't-that time after he was sent down adds up to a month or possibly two.

I don't feel for him losing the job in ST last year-he wasn't guaranteed a spot, and he didn't show near enough to earn the spot.

[UMFan83]

I am simply dumbfounded by the worked up responses in this thread.

 

Until you actually hear or see something from the organization that indicates that Hill won't be in the rotation, why get all worked up about it? Seems like a lot of wasted energy to me.

 

You're right, the Cubs have given me lots of reasons not to overreact over the last 99 years...

[Jon]

you really only think there has been one month of baseball where hill should have been in the rotation but wasn't?

 

He didn't give much of an indication that he belonged in the majors the first half of last season. Hard to say there is a "should have" there when he was getting shallacked most every time they sent him out early on.

Hill at AAA:

 

April - .149/.221/.230 with a 0.80 WHIP and 33/7 K/BB

May - .245/.275/.265 with a 1.03 WHIP and 21/1 K/BB

June - .180/.225/.261 with a 0.79 WHIP and 41/6 K/BB

July - .170/.239/.260 with a 0.82 WHIP and 40/7 K/BB

 

And the big league team/rotation sucked.

 

Rothshild was never very patient with Hill, nor was Hendry. We'll have to see if that changes this year.

[Danny82]

I don't care about his minor league numbers.

 

What did he do in the majors early in the season?

 

Is it ever his fault for not performing? Or is it always somebody on the staff's instead?