AL Central

[Backtobanks]

With many "experts" saying good things about the Indians this year, I realized the White Sox could very well end up in 4th place in their division. There's no reason to think the Twins or Tigers ought to regress very much and the Indians might overtake the White Sox. I despise the Sox, but I must admit they would probably have the best 4th place team in baseball.

[CuseCubFan69]

Things have certainly changed for that division eh? It seemed like just a few years ago winning 85 games would take that division now that number might get you 4th.

[UMFan83]

Probably the best division in baseball. If the AL East wasn't so top heavy, it might stake that claim, but I'd have to go with the Central right now.

[CuseCubFan69]

Probably the best division in baseball. If the AL East wasn't so top heavy, it might stake that claim, but I'd have to go with the Central right now.

 

The AL overall looks so much tougher than the NL. Because of that the Mariners should send Ichiro to the Cubs to assure themselves of a top 3 pick.

[bc2k]

With many "experts" saying good things about the Indians this year, I realized the White Sox could very well end up in 4th place in their division. There's no reason to think the Twins or Tigers ought to regress very much and the Indians might overtake the White Sox. I despise the Sox, but I must admit they would probably have the best 4th place team in baseball.

 

I don't see the Sox finishing below 3rd since the 2007 Twins lost Radke to retirement and Liriano to injury.

 

I'd expect the Tigers to repeat, followed by the Indians, Sox, Twins and Royals.

[nilodnayr]

With many "experts" saying good things about the Indians this year, I realized the White Sox could very well end up in 4th place in their division. There's no reason to think the Twins or Tigers ought to regress very much and the Indians might overtake the White Sox. I despise the Sox, but I must admit they would probably have the best 4th place team in baseball.

 

I don't see the Sox finishing below 3rd since the 2007 Twins lost Radke to retirement and Liriano to injury.

 

I'd expect the Tigers to repeat, followed by the Indians, Sox, Twins and Royals.

 

Bonser, Garza, and possibly Perkins and Baker might surprise you (they also might not). Radke was average last year and although Liriano was amazing, it was only for half the year in the rotation. The season might depend on how quick Gardenhire gives the heave-ho to Ortiz and Silva if they suck.

[moochpuppy]

I don't think you guys are giving the Sox enough credit here. They have one of the most productive lineups in baseball to go along with one of the toughest rotations. If the starting pitching holds up this season and gets their ERA down .50 from last year the Sox should win the Central.

 

The Twins, I think, are the biggest threat. They have been the most consistant in the division and their young players keep coming through.

 

The Tigers are going to fall off a bit and finish 3rd. The Indians are dangerous at the plate but their pitching scares no one. The Royals, well, their the Royals.

 

2007 Standings:

Sox 97-65

Twins 93-69

Tigers 87-75

Indians 80-82

Royals 63-99

[Mephistopheles]

The indians were probably the best team in the division last year, you can throw the W-L records out the door.

[Soriano12]

It's fun to listen to The Score in Chicago and hear all the Sox fans that think they are going to win that division.

:lol:

[moochpuppy]

The indians were probably the best team in the division last year, you can throw the W-L records out the door.

 

That's the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard.

[Soul]

It's fun to listen to The Score in Chicago and hear all the Sox fans that think they are going to win that division.

:lol:

 

It's not just Sox fans. I was watching Chicago Tribune live and all the "experts" had the Sox winning well over 90 games, Thome 30+ home runs and over 110 RBIs, Konerko the same, Dye an MVP candidate, etc. etc.

 

Just an amazing amount of Sox optimism considering they just gutted their starting rotation and don't know if their starting SS will even be allowed to return to America enough to start regularly.

 

I believe Detroit's the favorite to win that division, although I wouldn't want to throw my hat in that ring because one-year wonders do happen.

[moochpuppy]

It's fun to listen to The Score in Chicago and hear all the Sox fans that think they are going to win that division.

:lol:

 

No less humorous than Cub fans. At this time of most fans think their team has a shot at the playoffs.

 

And why shouldn't Sox fans feel that way? They are coming off 99 and 90 win seasons. They have the same lineup and four of the five same starting pitchers. They've made moves to try and improve the bullpen and the bench. Based on all of this, White Sox fans should think they have a shot at the division the same way Cubs fans do after all the moves Hendry has made this offseason and with a healthy Derrick Lee.

[Danny82]

The indians were probably the best team in the division last year, you can throw the W-L records out the door.

 

That's the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard.

 

Seconded. Well, maybe not the most ridiculous, but it's up there.

 

The Indians finished in fourth place and 18 games out of first, yet they were the best team in the division. Good stuff.

[CoolHandLuke]

The indians were probably the best team in the division last year, you can throw the W-L records out the door.

 

That's the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard.

 

Seconded. Well, maybe not the most ridiculous, but it's up there.

 

The Indians finished in fourth place and 18 games out of first, yet they were the best team in the division. Good stuff.

 

Based on run differential they were much better than their record indicates. Maybe not the best, but definitely better than a 4th place team. They were real unlucky.

[Soriano12]

="moochpuppyNo less humorous than Cub fans. At this time of most fans think their team has a shot at the playoffs.

 

 

What are you talking about? Most Cub fans think the team will be improved, but the optimism is cautios.

 

Sox fans are simply homers. There is no way they win that division.

[CubinNY]

The indians were probably the best team in the division last year, you can throw the W-L records out the door.

 

That's the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard.

 

Seconded. Well, maybe not the most ridiculous, but it's up there.

 

The Indians finished in fourth place and 18 games out of first, yet they were the best team in the division. Good stuff.

 

Based on run differential they were much better than their record indicates. Maybe not the best, but definitely better than a 4th place team. They were real unlucky.

 

That is a convetional assumption in sabermetric circles, but not necessarily true. Over the course of 162 games luck plays very little roll in the overall outcome of a season.

[Danny82]

The indians were probably the best team in the division last year, you can throw the W-L records out the door.

 

That's the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard.

 

Seconded. Well, maybe not the most ridiculous, but it's up there.

 

The Indians finished in fourth place and 18 games out of first, yet they were the best team in the division. Good stuff.

 

Based on run differential they were much better than their record indicates. Maybe not the best, but definitely better than a 4th place team. They were real unlucky.

 

Or maybe they don't have any mental toughness and lost a lot of close games for that reason. Who knows. It's still a ridiculous statement to say they were the best team in that division. Silly wins, like they have anything to do with the question.

[moochpuppy]

="moochpuppyNo less humorous than Cub fans. At this time of most fans think their team has a shot at the playoffs.

 

 

What are you talking about? Most Cub fans think the team will be improved, but the optimism is cautios.

 

Sox fans are simply homers. There is no way they win that division.

 

Pot. Kettle. Black. :wink:

[Soriano12]

="moochpuppyNo less humorous than Cub fans. At this time of most fans think their team has a shot at the playoffs.

 

 

What are you talking about? Most Cub fans think the team will be improved, but the optimism is cautios.

 

Sox fans are simply homers. There is no way they win that division.

 

Pot. Kettle. Black. :wink:

 

You are accusing me of being a Cubs optimist? Now thats funny.

[CoolHandLuke]

I wasn't necessarily agreeing with the statement that the Indians were the best team in the division, just trying to point out that there were a more talented team than their record indicated. I don't really know whether or not it is true but (assuming no personnel changes, obviously not realistic) I would guess that pythagorean record has more predictive value than standard w-l.

 

I think we can all agree that the Indians, Sox, Twins and Tigers comprise arguably the best division in baseball. Should be a fun battle.

[CubinNY]

I wasn't necessarily agreeing with the statement that the Indians were the best team in the division, just trying to point out that there were a more talented team than their record indicated. I don't really know whether or not it is true but (assuming no personnel changes, obviously not realistic) I would guess that pythagorean record has more predictive value than standard w-l.

 

I think we can all agree that the Indians, Sox, Twins and Tigers comprise arguably the best division in baseball. Should be a fun battle.

 

I agree.

 

However, the pythagorean record is simply a standard, by that I mean that a team's pythagorean record says what they "should have" won given their run differential. Should have is the key phrase here, it's a projection and not predicitive of anything. That being said, teams that generally score more runs then they give up win more than teams that don't.

 

Yet a team could have four aces and one tomato can pitching. For simplicity let's take out bullpens and assume every pitcher pitches 9 innings.

 

They could have a run differntial of 4 with the aces and lose the game with tomato can pitching by 10 runs. In this case their run differential would be -6 and they could still be 4-1. This could play out for an entire season and the team would have a .750 winning %, win 121 games and have a pythagorrean record of 76-86.

 

A better method would be looking at the Standard Deviation Score. By that I mean looking at how far from the mean (all MLB teams) the team's run scored and runs allowed were.

[BigbadB]

Anyone poking fun at Cleveland is in for quite a surprise. Their rotation is just about as good as any other team in baseball with

 

Sabathia

Lee

Westbrook

Byrd

Sowers

 

They beefed up the bullpen in the offseason to protect leads, and it's arguably the best bullpen in the AL Central.

 

The offense will score a lot of runs. Marte, Peralta, Barfield and Garko is as young and talented as it gets. The outfield with Jason Michaels, Trot Nixon, Grady Sizemore, David Delucci and Casey Blake makes for a lot of mix and match for quality results. And I have yet to mention Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.

 

They scored a lot of runs last year and only replaced the non-productive guys like Aaron Boone, Ronnie Belliard and Ben Broussard.

 

This team will be very good this year. No one will run away with the division. Even the Royals are much better than they were last year.

[daske17]

Not for nothing, but Rob Neyerdescribes Grady Sizemore as the best overall player in the MLB. And compares him favorably to Duke Snider.

[Danny82]

I, for one, was not poking fun at them. I know they have a lot of young talent...although I wouldn't expect much from Marte this year. Also, I wouldn't go so far as to call Ben Broussard "non-productive."

 

My post was merely criticizing the assertion that they were the best team in that division last year.

 

And FWIW, that rotation is not nearly as good as you make it out to be. It's closer to average than top of the line (like the 10-15 range by my quick estimation). Plus, I don't think their bullpen is any more than average, and not better than the Twins' or Tigers'.

Edited February 14, 2007 by Danny82

[Soriano12]

Not for nothing, but Rob Neyerdescribes Grady Sizemore as the best overall player in the MLB. And compares him favorably to Duke Snider.

 

I love Sizemore, but no way is he the best player in baseball, best CF, yes.