Cards Re-sign Preston Wilson, 1yr/1 Mil

[XZero771679666304]

How is it the cardinal can come to ST with 1 starter and the rest rookies with not even a half year under their belt and junk, and cardinals fans can be happy with that?

 

That be like us having a plan for this rotation. . .

 

Zambrano

Hill

Marshall

Guzman

and Rusch

 

And just expecting everone to step up and be great, or acceptable.

 

The Cards score more runs than the Cubs. Their rotation can afford to be worse than ours. Also, 2/5 of our rotation is composed of an injury riddled Miller/Prior and Jason Marquis. After losing Weaver and Suppan, their rotation will probably not match last year's, however, and the Cards haven't really added much on offense or pitching wise, other than the aforementioned Wilson. The Cubs should have a somewhat better starting rotation but the Cards should have a significantly better offense. Honestly, everyone in the central looks pretty mediocre at this point (save the Pirates, who still suck, and Houston, who will only have a shot if Clemens comes back again). I think everybody other than those two teams could win the division if things break their way. It will probably come down to who is healthier.

 

I'm going to need some convincing that the Cardinals offense is even slightly better than the Cubs, never mind significantly better.

 

 

 

Their approach to the rotation should be familiar, because it's what we've done the past few years with a different variable. Instead of "if these guys stay healthy" it's "if these young guys progress/if duncan can turn these guys around".

 

They scored around 65 more runs than us last season, despite Edmonds being injured for a good part of the season. We've added Soriano and subtracted Pierre for an upgrade, but everything else has been kind of a lateral move. DeRosa may or may not be better than Todd Walker offensively. Izturis is no better than Cedeno or Perez offensively. If Lee stays healthy, we'll be better at 2 positions. We may make up some without Dusty giving all those ABs to the likes of Perez and Bynum. Our offense will be better than last year's, but last year's was terrible (ahead of only Pittsburgh), and St. Louis's offense was 6th in the NL. I think the Cubs move up, and finish maybe 8th or 10th in the NL, with St. Louis about where they were last year.

 

If you go position by position though, it doesn't work out so well. The Cubs have Izturis while the Cardinals have Molina-that's a wash. DeRosa and Belliard are probably about the same. That leaves

Lee, Aramis, Soriano, Jones, Barrett, Murton vs Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Duncan, Encarnacion (am I missing a Cardinal OF), Eckstein

 

Pujols is easily the best on that list-but Encarnacion and Eckstein are worse than any of the Cubs hitters as well. I'd take those Cub 6 hitters vs the Cardinals 6.

 

Belliard isn't a Card anymore, Adam Kennedy is their 2B.

 

But I still agree.

[CubColtPacer]

How is it the cardinal can come to ST with 1 starter and the rest rookies with not even a half year under their belt and junk, and cardinals fans can be happy with that?

 

That be like us having a plan for this rotation. . .

 

Zambrano

Hill

Marshall

Guzman

and Rusch

 

And just expecting everone to step up and be great, or acceptable.

 

The Cards score more runs than the Cubs. Their rotation can afford to be worse than ours. Also, 2/5 of our rotation is composed of an injury riddled Miller/Prior and Jason Marquis. After losing Weaver and Suppan, their rotation will probably not match last year's, however, and the Cards haven't really added much on offense or pitching wise, other than the aforementioned Wilson. The Cubs should have a somewhat better starting rotation but the Cards should have a significantly better offense. Honestly, everyone in the central looks pretty mediocre at this point (save the Pirates, who still suck, and Houston, who will only have a shot if Clemens comes back again). I think everybody other than those two teams could win the division if things break their way. It will probably come down to who is healthier.

 

I'm going to need some convincing that the Cardinals offense is even slightly better than the Cubs, never mind significantly better.

 

 

 

Their approach to the rotation should be familiar, because it's what we've done the past few years with a different variable. Instead of "if these guys stay healthy" it's "if these young guys progress/if duncan can turn these guys around".

 

They scored around 65 more runs than us last season, despite Edmonds being injured for a good part of the season. We've added Soriano and subtracted Pierre for an upgrade, but everything else has been kind of a lateral move. DeRosa may or may not be better than Todd Walker offensively. Izturis is no better than Cedeno or Perez offensively. If Lee stays healthy, we'll be better at 2 positions. We may make up some without Dusty giving all those ABs to the likes of Perez and Bynum. Our offense will be better than last year's, but last year's was terrible (ahead of only Pittsburgh), and St. Louis's offense was 6th in the NL. I think the Cubs move up, and finish maybe 8th or 10th in the NL, with St. Louis about where they were last year.

 

If you go position by position though, it doesn't work out so well. The Cubs have Izturis while the Cardinals have Molina-that's a wash. DeRosa and Belliard are probably about the same. That leaves

Lee, Aramis, Soriano, Jones, Barrett, Murton vs Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Duncan, Encarnacion (am I missing a Cardinal OF), Eckstein

 

Pujols is easily the best on that list-but Encarnacion and Eckstein are worse than any of the Cubs hitters as well. I'd take those Cub 6 hitters vs the Cardinals 6.

 

Belliard isn't a Card anymore, Adam Kennedy is their 2B.

 

But I still agree.

 

Thank you for the correction-and Belliard and Kennedy are somewhat similar, so it's still the same comparison :D

[Amazing_Grace]

How is it the cardinal can come to ST with 1 starter and the rest rookies with not even a half year under their belt and junk, and cardinals fans can be happy with that?

 

That be like us having a plan for this rotation. . .

 

Zambrano

Hill

Marshall

Guzman

and Rusch

 

And just expecting everone to step up and be great, or acceptable.

 

The Cards score more runs than the Cubs. Their rotation can afford to be worse than ours. Also, 2/5 of our rotation is composed of an injury riddled Miller/Prior and Jason Marquis. After losing Weaver and Suppan, their rotation will probably not match last year's, however, and the Cards haven't really added much on offense or pitching wise, other than the aforementioned Wilson. The Cubs should have a somewhat better starting rotation but the Cards should have a significantly better offense. Honestly, everyone in the central looks pretty mediocre at this point (save the Pirates, who still suck, and Houston, who will only have a shot if Clemens comes back again). I think everybody other than those two teams could win the division if things break their way. It will probably come down to who is healthier.

 

I'm going to need some convincing that the Cardinals offense is even slightly better than the Cubs, never mind significantly better.

 

 

 

Their approach to the rotation should be familiar, because it's what we've done the past few years with a different variable. Instead of "if these guys stay healthy" it's "if these young guys progress/if duncan can turn these guys around".

 

They scored around 65 more runs than us last season, despite Edmonds being injured for a good part of the season. We've added Soriano and subtracted Pierre for an upgrade, but everything else has been kind of a lateral move. DeRosa may or may not be better than Todd Walker offensively. Izturis is no better than Cedeno or Perez offensively. If Lee stays healthy, we'll be better at 2 positions. We may make up some without Dusty giving all those ABs to the likes of Perez and Bynum. Our offense will be better than last year's, but last year's was terrible (ahead of only Pittsburgh), and St. Louis's offense was 6th in the NL. I think the Cubs move up, and finish maybe 8th or 10th in the NL, with St. Louis about where they were last year.

 

If you go position by position though, it doesn't work out so well. The Cubs have Izturis while the Cardinals have Molina-that's a wash. DeRosa and Kennedy are probably about the same. That leaves

Lee, Aramis, Soriano, Jones, Barrett, Murton vs Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Duncan, Encarnacion (am I missing a Cardinal OF), Eckstein

 

Pujols is easily the best on that list-but Encarnacion and Eckstein are worse than any of the Cubs hitters as well. I'd take those Cub 6 hitters vs the Cardinals 6.

 

Looking at the individual numbers on paper, it doesn't look like the Cards should be that much better, but last year they were. The thing that saves Eckstein is that he's a leadoff man and it doesn't matter how crappy he is if he just gets on base for Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, which he does at a good clip (.351 career OBP).

 

I just don't know if our offense is 60+ runs better than last year's. Really it's all just speculation at this point. If DeRosa, Jones, and Soriano equal their output from last season and Lee has another career year, then the Cubs could have an edge on offense. On the other hand, if those four guys hit for their career averages, then I think St. Louis should still have a decided edge. And no you listed the 3 OFers, Edmonds, Duncan, and Encarnacion.

 

The Cubs should have a better rotation, though, and, as someone else mentioned, with Wainwright starting, their bullpen is weakened. I would say the Cubs could be better than the Cardinals overall or the Cardinals could be better. On paper, neither team seems to me to be obviously superior. They both have some question marks. Most of ours are on offense, and most of theirs are in the rotation. Man the central is weak.

 

EDIT: And it's not like St. Louis was a dominant team last year either. They won a terrible division and got hot at the right time. Worst team to ever win a WS.

[SouthSideRyan]

I didn't actually crunch the numbers but if we're assuming the same output from the Cards offensively, I definitely think Derrek Lee instead of Neifi and Soriano instead of Pierre is enough to make up 65 runs of offense.

[wolf stansson]

Can Carpenter and Kip Wells stay healthy for an entire season?

Carpenter has thrown 644 and 2/3 innings in the last 3 seasons. It's time to start assuming he'll be healthy.

 

Wells and team doctors say he is back to 100% and as evidenced by his back-to-back 121 and 129 era+ seasons before his injuries, he isn't total trash.

 

will now also be thin in the pen once they remove Wainright from the equation.

Not really. Isringhausen is apparently healthy. He was apparently hurt from the outset of last season and is apparently going to be 100% for the start of this season.

 

Taking that at face value (not that it is necessarily safe to do so) since he has been a top 5 closer when healthy since we signed him, the back end is safe.

 

We have also have:

Looper - 124 era+, 698 ops vs righties.

Kinney - 136 era+, 585 ops against, 552 ops vs righties, 1.84 era against righties.

Johnson - Not very good at all in late call up, but with big slider potential to be good is there. Performed awfully well in playoffs.

Flores - Terrible last season, but like Johnson very good in playoffs. For a better sample size, look at his '05 where he had an era+ of 124 in 50 appearances. He suffered from not having another reliable left hander and got exposed quickly.

Rincon - Injured last year. Career era+ of 126.

Thompson - '06 era+ of 132, career 138 in 83 appearances.

 

There are a few MiLB guys who could possibly perform adequately.

 

Troy Cate RHP - FSL, 34g, 41 inn, 1.54 era, 58k, 13bb. The only reason I think he can go from the FSL to the majors is because he is really old. I think he is 29. Possibly another Josh Kinney find.

Chris Narveson LHP - PCL, 15 gs, 80 ip, 2.81 era.

 

Blake Hawksworth is intriguing. Could be this year's Wainwright if absolutely necessary, but realistically is a year away. Former #1 prospect but fell due to injuries, 23 years old, lost some velocity after surgery but regained form as season ended as noted by higher K rate despite being promoted to more difficult competition. Arsenal a lot like Anthony Reyes except has a much better curve and not quite as good of change. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start at AAA given the lack of pitching there now that Reyes, Wainwright and possibly Narveson will be gone.

 

Last season he split between A and AA.

A - 14 gs, 7-2, 2.47 era, 83.2 IP, 55k, 19 bb.

AA - 13 gs, 4-2, 79.2 IP, 3.39 era, 66K, 31 bb.

 

Bernie Miklacz and Derrick Goold of the STL Post-Dispatch have mentioned surprise stud prospect Jamie Garcia as a sleeper to make the team out of camp. That to me is retardedly preposterous given his age (20) and the organization's hesitancy to over promote pitching prospects since the Rick Ankiel debacle. These comments were a while ago and I doubt he was even extended an invitation to spring training. He is however, extremely polished for his age and has not only good stuff but also that personal joy of Dave Duncan's, the ability to induce a ton of ground balls. He needs to do well at AA before any talk of big league innings gets printed again.

 

This isn't meant as a feel sorry post for Cardinal fans, but I really don't understand what they are doing this offseason.

FWIW, Cardinals' principal owner Bill DeWitt said they are exploring trades for another starting pitcher. Rumors of Penny/Pavano/Lieber.

 

I also don't think it is a stretch to think that Reyes, Wainwright, Wells, half season of Mulder and whoever they get can will post better than the 82 ERA+ than we got from Suppan, Ponfat, Weaver, injured Mulder and Marcrap last year.

 

Rolen will be a full season removed from a surgery that traditionally takes a full season to recover from, Pujols will probably be Pujols, Kennedy will probably be better than what we had for most of last season with Miles/Luna/Belliard, Edmonds was hurt so nobody knows just how much of last season can be attributed to decline or injury, Yadier Molina can't possibly be any more terrible, and Isringhausen was apparently hurt from the outset of last season and is apparently going to be 100% for the start of this season. Pecota has Duncan projected to an ops of 844 which would be an upgrade over the nightmare of Taguchi, Jrod, Schumacker etc that we had for much of last season.

 

So basically, there are an awful lot of question marks, but I don't think it is time to panic yet. If our rotation is what it is now at the end of spring training however, I will be upset.

 

There is something to be said for the championship grace period among a fan base.

 

PS, sorry about the minor league tangent, but I can't sleep and it was fun to actually do some stimulated baseball thinking.

[Soul]

You're taking an awwwwwwwful lot of reliever stats and ERA+'s from years ago to build that hope on, wolf.

[BigbadB]

You're taking an awwwwwwwful lot of reliever stats and ERA+'s from years ago to build that hope on, wolf.

 

And my point was missed. The Cardinals filled a brand new stadium all year (higher ticket prices?) and won a World Series. What have they done this offseason to reward the fans? Preston Wilson wouldn't cut it for me.

[wolf stansson]

And my point was missed. The Cardinals filled a brand new stadium all year (higher ticket prices?) and won a World Series. What have they done this offseason to reward the fans? Preston Wilson wouldn't cut it for me.

Yes I did.

There is something to be said for the championship grace period among a fan base.

You're taking an awwwwwwwful lot of reliever stats and ERA+'s from years ago to build that hope on, wolf.

And you used an awful lot of w's to tell me.

So basically, there are an awful lot of question marks, but I don't think it is time to panic yet. If our rotation is what it is now at the end of spring training however, I will be upset.

I'm by no means optimistic. I was just telling him why Cardinals fans aren't panicking. We all feel pretty mediocre, which is just what our team is; mediocre.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

And my point was missed. The Cardinals filled a brand new stadium all year (higher ticket prices?) and won a World Series. What have they done this offseason to reward the fans? Preston Wilson wouldn't cut it for me.

Yes I did.

There is something to be said for the championship grace period among a fan base.

You're taking an awwwwwwwful lot of reliever stats and ERA+'s from years ago to build that hope on, wolf.

And you used an awful lot of w's to tell me.

So basically, there are an awful lot of question marks, but I don't think it is time to panic yet. If our rotation is what it is now at the end of spring training however, I will be upset.

I'm by no means optimistic. I was just telling him why Cardinals fans aren't panicking. We all feel pretty mediocre, which is just what our team is; mediocre.

 

I'll be honest -- I haven't read a single one of your posts since you changed your avatar.

[wolf stansson]

I'll be honest -- I haven't read a single one of your posts since you changed your avatar.

The eye is uncontrollably drawn to the left.

[Soul]

I'll be honest -- I haven't read a single one of your posts since you changed your avatar.

The eye is uncontrollably drawn to the left.

 

It is an awwwwwwwwfully nice avatar.

[wolf stansson]

I'll be honest -- I haven't read a single one of your posts since you changed your avatar.

The eye is uncontrollably drawn to the left.

 

It is an awwwwwwwwfully nice avatar.

In this situation the increased w's are appropriate.

[NCCubFan]

I'll be honest -- I haven't read a single one of your posts since you changed your avatar.

The eye is uncontrollably drawn to the left.

 

It is an awwwwwwwwfully nice avatar.

In this situation the increased w's are appropriate.

More w's than the Cardinals will see this year. :wink: