A look at the current pitching staff

[CubsWin]

Miller is $1.5. That's your disposable contract.

 

To me it seems like a pretty good balance. There's a wide open spot, so if Guzman looks like Cy Young, it's not like he's blocked. If Prior shows up and surprises, it's not like there isn't a place to put him.

 

The only way you've got a surplus/opportunity problem is if both Prior and Guzman look like Cy Young. Well, how big of a "problem" is that likely to be?

That's what I'm saying. Well put.

[BigbadB]

Iowa could be looking pretty good in 2007.

 

Pie, Patterson, Coats, McGehee, Hoffpauir, Fontenot, Montanez, Moore, Pagan?

 

Marmol, Guzman, Marshall, Mateo, Ryu, Piggy, Wells

 

Novoa, Rapada

 

 

Still think someone will get dealt for a bat at the major league level.

 

Marmol or Marshall for Church?

[Guest]

Iowa could be looking pretty good in 2007.

 

Pie, Patterson, Coats, McGehee, Hoffpauir, Fontenot, Montanez, Moore, Pagan?

 

Marmol, Guzman, Marshall, Mateo, Ryu, Piggy, Wells

 

Novoa, Rapada

 

 

Still think someone will get dealt for a bat at the major league level.

 

Marmol or Marshall for Church?

The pitching staff should be very strong...I'm not as convinced about the hitters.

[BigbadB]

Is Sing still around?

[Soul]

Yeah, it's starting to look very much like Jim is going to dangle guys like Guzman & Marmol for that fabled "good lefty bat" he keeps talking about.

 

I don't think any of those guys are off the table (as some have said). Jim's going to be looking to trade.

[abuck1220]

hill starts in AAA (or is traded for a jay gibbons type turd) if all those guys are healthy.

This analysis defies any and all logic, abuck. Hendry stakes his reputation on Hill long before he makes good at the major league level refusing to include him in deals that would have brought back much better players than Jay Gibbons, but now that Hill has shown he can be dominate in the bigs, he'll give up on him, drop him out of the rotation for someone with a low base contract like Wade Miller and give him up for a "turd".

 

If you really believe that, be my guest, but don't expect anyone else to take your comments seriously.

 

first of all, i've never heard from hendry himself that hill was off limits (ie refusing to trade hill for dunn)...that was all speculation, as far as i know. i don't think i've ever read a quote from hendry giving a strong endorsement of hill.

 

second of all, his refusal to put him in the rotation last year while rusch was throwing scored batting practice tells me that he doesn't think the highest of hill. it took a complete roster collapse and hill pitching like johan santana for the second half of the season to even bring hill's name into consideration for '07. i flat out don't think the cubs value hill that much. and the way they treated him last season tells me more about how they value him than what hendry allegedly refused to trade him for.

 

also, hendry knows his job is on the line this season. and if you think he'd rather stake his job on rich hill than wade miller or jason marquis, then i guess we disagree.

 

if z, lilly, marquis, miller and prior are all healthy, i don't think there's any way hill makes the rotation.

[abuck1220]

 

This is what it is going to look like if Hendry isn't going to count on Prior or Miller which everyone here was calling for him to do. Chances are one or maybe even both of Prior and Miller won't start the season on the 25-man roster. Also, bullpen arms can still be traded opening a spot for Miller to start the season in the pen instead of sending Hill down to AAA no matter how well he is performing. Thinking that the Cubs would demote Rich Hill even if he is pitching better than the other veteran options doesn't make much sense. The reason why the Cubs are covering their bases with options is so that they can have the best chance of winning. They will go with the 5 guys that give them the best chance to win, period. And thats how it should be, no?

 

yet, that's exactly what they did when the cubs were 500 games out of first place, hill was striking out 15 a night in AAA and rusch was giving up eight runs per start.

[craig]

I think there's a huge difference between Miller being healthy, throwing 95 mph with movement and Miller being healthy in that his arm doesn't hurt, but throwing mostly 85-87. The healthy and 94-95mph Miller, I want that dude on the team. The 86-88mph Miller, very different value, regardless of whether his arm hurts or not. The 95mph Miller, he's on the team, one way or another. The 86mph Miller, he's not bumping Hill.

 

Listen, I won't be surprised if Prior or Miller come to camp and say their arms feel fine. But if they are throwing 83, you ship them to Mesa on rehab and have them build up their strength and velocity.

 

The chance that Miller and Prior will both come to camp so healthy and throwing so well that you can't even consider popping them on rehab, that is so remote that it's really not worth worrying about.

[CubsWin]

 

This is what it is going to look like if Hendry isn't going to count on Prior or Miller which everyone here was calling for him to do. Chances are one or maybe even both of Prior and Miller won't start the season on the 25-man roster. Also, bullpen arms can still be traded opening a spot for Miller to start the season in the pen instead of sending Hill down to AAA no matter how well he is performing. Thinking that the Cubs would demote Rich Hill even if he is pitching better than the other veteran options doesn't make much sense. The reason why the Cubs are covering their bases with options is so that they can have the best chance of winning. They will go with the 5 guys that give them the best chance to win, period. And thats how it should be, no?

 

yet, that's exactly what they did when the cubs were 500 games out of first place, hill was striking out 15 a night in AAA and rusch was giving up eight runs per start.

Perhaps you missed it, but I remember an article about the work they were doing with Hill down at AAA. Hill failed pretty miserably in his first stint up with the Cubs last season, certainly worse than what Rusch was expected to do at the time. Remember, Rusch hadn't sucked that way the previous two seasons, so the expectation was that even if he struggled, he wouldn't struggle all year, and he would likely be better than what Hill did his first time up.

 

When Rusch continued to suck and when Hill accomplished what his pitching coach wanted him to accomplish, I think it was spotting the fastball with consistency or something like that, then he was brought up. It is a perfectly logical time line.

 

When you know the facts and have a fair view of what was reasonable to expect Rusch to do, what Hendry did makes perfect sense.

[A New Era]

 

This is what it is going to look like if Hendry isn't going to count on Prior or Miller which everyone here was calling for him to do. Chances are one or maybe even both of Prior and Miller won't start the season on the 25-man roster. Also, bullpen arms can still be traded opening a spot for Miller to start the season in the pen instead of sending Hill down to AAA no matter how well he is performing. Thinking that the Cubs would demote Rich Hill even if he is pitching better than the other veteran options doesn't make much sense. The reason why the Cubs are covering their bases with options is so that they can have the best chance of winning. They will go with the 5 guys that give them the best chance to win, period. And thats how it should be, no?

 

yet, that's exactly what they did when the cubs were 500 games out of first place, hill was striking out 15 a night in AAA and rusch was giving up eight runs per start.

 

That's exactly what DUSTY did. Who overrode many of LR descisions. That is NOT what Piniella and Rothschild will do. And they wouldn't have done that last year either.

[abuck1220]

 

This is what it is going to look like if Hendry isn't going to count on Prior or Miller which everyone here was calling for him to do. Chances are one or maybe even both of Prior and Miller won't start the season on the 25-man roster. Also, bullpen arms can still be traded opening a spot for Miller to start the season in the pen instead of sending Hill down to AAA no matter how well he is performing. Thinking that the Cubs would demote Rich Hill even if he is pitching better than the other veteran options doesn't make much sense. The reason why the Cubs are covering their bases with options is so that they can have the best chance of winning. They will go with the 5 guys that give them the best chance to win, period. And thats how it should be, no?

 

yet, that's exactly what they did when the cubs were 500 games out of first place, hill was striking out 15 a night in AAA and rusch was giving up eight runs per start.

Perhaps you missed it, but I remember an article about the work they were doing with Hill down at AAA. Hill failed pretty miserably in his first stint up with the Cubs last season, certainly worse than what Rusch was expected to do at the time. Remember, Rusch hadn't sucked that way the previous two seasons, so the expectation was that even if he struggled, he wouldn't struggle all year, and he would likely be better than what Hill did his first time up.

 

When Rusch continued to suck and when Hill accomplished what his pitching coach wanted him to accomplish, I think it was spotting the fastball with consistency or something like that, then he was brought up. It is a perfectly logical time line.

 

When you know the facts and have a fair view of what was reasonable to expect Rusch to do, what Hendry did makes perfect sense.

 

yeah, if you buy the whole 'see, hill just needed to work on _____, which we knew all along, which is why we sent him to AAA, and now he's good, excuse me while i pat myself on the back' routine that baker/hendry/rothschild were selling. i don't but that. the reason hill improved last year was b/c he got more experience, not b/c he learned a secret magic trick in AAA. he was doing the same thing in AAA after his demotion as he was before. it was just a matter of getting more work in at the big league level.

 

do you really think they'll send a healthy miller to the pen at hill's expense?

[CubsWin]

hill starts in AAA (or is traded for a jay gibbons type turd) if all those guys are healthy.

This analysis defies any and all logic, abuck. Hendry stakes his reputation on Hill long before he makes good at the major league level refusing to include him in deals that would have brought back much better players than Jay Gibbons, but now that Hill has shown he can be dominate in the bigs, he'll give up on him, drop him out of the rotation for someone with a low base contract like Wade Miller and give him up for a "turd".

 

If you really believe that, be my guest, but don't expect anyone else to take your comments seriously.

 

first of all, i've never heard from hendry himself that hill was off limits (ie refusing to trade hill for dunn)...that was all speculation, as far as i know. i don't think i've ever read a quote from hendry giving a strong endorsement of hill.

Hendry doesn't comment directly on possible trade talks, but there were several reports from other GMs that Hendry was not willing to part with Hill for the player they were trying trade to the Cubs. Perhaps you just need to read more.

 

also, hendry knows his job is on the line this season. and if you think he'd rather stake his job on rich hill than wade miller or jason marquis, then i guess we disagree.

Yep, we do. I think Hendry would rather "stake his job" on the 5 best pitchers, whoever that may be.

 

if z, lilly, marquis, miller and prior are all healthy, i don't think there's any way hill makes the rotation.

Healthy? Just healthy? Okay...

 

Hill pitched better in August and September than Wade Miller ever has, even when he was fully healthy. Miller was "healthy" enough to pitch at the end of last season and performed much worse than Hill did who has never had health concerns as long as he has been with the Cubs. ...not Kerry...So, I'm not certain why you are so convinced that Hendry would go with Miller and Prior if they are just healthy enough to pitch. But if that's the position you want to take, be my guest.

Edited December 9, 2006 by CubsWin

[abuck1220]

 

This is what it is going to look like if Hendry isn't going to count on Prior or Miller which everyone here was calling for him to do. Chances are one or maybe even both of Prior and Miller won't start the season on the 25-man roster. Also, bullpen arms can still be traded opening a spot for Miller to start the season in the pen instead of sending Hill down to AAA no matter how well he is performing. Thinking that the Cubs would demote Rich Hill even if he is pitching better than the other veteran options doesn't make much sense. The reason why the Cubs are covering their bases with options is so that they can have the best chance of winning. They will go with the 5 guys that give them the best chance to win, period. And thats how it should be, no?

 

yet, that's exactly what they did when the cubs were 500 games out of first place, hill was striking out 15 a night in AAA and rusch was giving up eight runs per start.

 

That's exactly what DUSTY did. Who overrode many of LR descisions. That is NOT what Piniella and Rothschild will do. And they wouldn't have done that last year either.

 

hendry's the guy that decides who to bring up, send down, cut, etc. hill was in AAA b/c hendry, at least to some extent, wanted him there.

[abuck1220]

i'd love to read more. please point to a quote from a gm saying hendry wouldn't part with hill for player X. keep in mind, however, that hendry refusing to trade hill for player X may just as easily be hendry's lack of interest in player X, as it would be his love for hill.

[CubsWin]

 

This is what it is going to look like if Hendry isn't going to count on Prior or Miller which everyone here was calling for him to do. Chances are one or maybe even both of Prior and Miller won't start the season on the 25-man roster. Also, bullpen arms can still be traded opening a spot for Miller to start the season in the pen instead of sending Hill down to AAA no matter how well he is performing. Thinking that the Cubs would demote Rich Hill even if he is pitching better than the other veteran options doesn't make much sense. The reason why the Cubs are covering their bases with options is so that they can have the best chance of winning. They will go with the 5 guys that give them the best chance to win, period. And thats how it should be, no?

 

yet, that's exactly what they did when the cubs were 500 games out of first place, hill was striking out 15 a night in AAA and rusch was giving up eight runs per start.

Perhaps you missed it, but I remember an article about the work they were doing with Hill down at AAA. Hill failed pretty miserably in his first stint up with the Cubs last season, certainly worse than what Rusch was expected to do at the time. Remember, Rusch hadn't sucked that way the previous two seasons, so the expectation was that even if he struggled, he wouldn't struggle all year, and he would likely be better than what Hill did his first time up.

 

When Rusch continued to suck and when Hill accomplished what his pitching coach wanted him to accomplish, I think it was spotting the fastball with consistency or something like that, then he was brought up. It is a perfectly logical time line.

 

When you know the facts and have a fair view of what was reasonable to expect Rusch to do, what Hendry did makes perfect sense.

 

yeah, if you buy the whole 'see, hill just needed to work on _____, which we knew all along, which is why we sent him to AAA, and now he's good, excuse me while i pat myself on the back' routine that baker/hendry/rothschild were selling. i don't but that. the reason hill improved last year was b/c he got more experience, not b/c he learned a secret magic trick in AAA. he was doing the same thing in AAA after his demotion as he was before. it was just a matter of getting more work in at the big league level.

Okay, you think they are all slimy, self-congratulatory liars. Got it. Clearly that will give you a certain bias when reading articles about them. Let's see if we can find that article and see if there were any quotes from Rich Hill in there. Maybe he went along with their lies because he lacks any self-respect, too.

 

do you really think they'll send a healthy miller to the pen at hill's expense?

If Hill is pitching better, yes. To think otherwise would be to think that Hendry and Piniella are idiots who don't know that going with your best 5 pitchers in your starting rotation is the best way to win baseball games. You don't think that, do you?

[CubsWin]

i'd love to read more. please point to a quote from a gm saying hendry wouldn't part with hill for player X. keep in mind, however, that hendry refusing to trade hill for player X may just as easily be hendry's lack of interest in player X, as it would be his love for hill.

If you want to read the articles, google them. I've already read them. It's not important enough to me to be your librarian.

 

And regardless, it is a gauge of his value of Hill over and against the other player involved.

[CoolHandLuke]

i'd love to read more. please point to a quote from a gm saying hendry wouldn't part with hill for player X. keep in mind, however, that hendry refusing to trade hill for player X may just as easily be hendry's lack of interest in player X, as it would be his love for hill.

If you want to read the articles, google them. I've already read them. It's not important enough to me to be your librarian.

 

And regardless, it is a gauge of his value of Hill over and against the other player involved.

 

I hope this is not what you do for any bibliographies you have to write.

 

You are trying to prove your point about Hill, so the burden of backing up your point is on you.

[Backtobanks]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

[Tedward]

I think the number of pitchers on the roster is now ideal, given the Miller/Wood/Prior situation.

 

You've got 13 guys. Sure, that's an excess problem...... in the impossible event that not only do Prior, Wood, and Miller all show up healthy, but the other 10 indended guys all stay healthy.

 

In the almost impossible event that all 13 guys do show up healthy, well, then you can worry about who's out. That's so unlikely it's not even worth fussing about. Certainly there is no need to be trading anybody on account of surplus, that's for sure.

 

Miller is $1.5. That's your disposable contract.

 

Guzman, Marshall, Marmol, and Mateo provide some rotation depth. None are guys you should assume are ready, although any of them might be. And, if any of them look superb in spring, Prior will be on the DL and Miller you can cut, or send to more rehab because his arm isn't still as strong as it was, or move to the pen in place of Wood or whomever else is hurt.

 

Novoa, Marmol, and Miller provide some bullpen depth, for Wood or whomever else is disabled there.

 

To me it seems like a pretty good balance. There's a wide open spot, so if Guzman looks like Cy Young, it's not like he's blocked. If Prior shows up and surprises, it's not like there isn't a place to put him.

 

The only way you've got a surplus/opportunity problem is if both Prior and Guzman look like Cy Young. Well, how big of a "problem" is that likely to be?

 

Ideally some of the Guzman/Marshall/Mateo/Marmol crowd will get a lot of Iowa time, like Hill did last year, and will dominate. So that perhaps when they do get a shot, like Hill his second round they'll really be ready, which Guzman and Ryu most certainly were not this past year.

 

If those guys pitch well at AAA, they will be very valuable properties. Right now, they aren't really. It's not like any of them has both the polish and the stuff to be the main bait for getting Westbrook or Jennings or Vernon Wells or Brad Penny or whomever. They all look interesting but not that big-league ready. A good year at Iowa could change that a lot.

 

Marquis could be a disaster. But I also think he has some Jacque potential. A year ago everybody was fuzzed that Jacque was getting too much too long. Where would Pie be able to squeeze in with both Pierre and Jacque blocking things? And how could you possible move jacque's contract? It took only a couple months for Jacque's value/contract to be quite movable, and now if we move him just as a salary dump, most of the posters who ripped his signing in the first place will now rip Hendry for not getting more value for him.

 

I'm just thinking that Marquis has a shot to pitch decently enough so thatnext year he might look as appealing an average pitcher as Padilla, Meche, and Lilly. Or, at least at $14/2 rather than $40/4 he might look as attractive. So, if Prior fills #5, Guzman looks like Cy Young but he's blocked by Marquis, I imagine that if Marquis does decent you'll have a chance to move him and his salary next winter, to clear a space for Guzman (or Marshall, or marmol, or whomever...) and clear a little payroll to spend on Prior or shortstop or CF or whatever.

 

Nice post Craig. Well thought out.

[BigbadB]

If Prior comes back 100%, Hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half, the Cubs are going to be pretty good.

 

If they can land Church with something along the lines of Marshall and Novoa, I think they will have a very solid team going into the 2007 season. I wouldn't call it great, but definitely a favorite to win their division.

 

Maybe trade Jones for a bench guy who can play 3rd. Hmmm.

 

Jacque Jones to Atlanta, Marcus Giles to San Diego, Russell Branyan to Cubs (Cubs get some cash or a prospect)

[frostwyrm]

Will there even be money to keep Z beyond 2007? It would be tragic if Z walks because we are carrying overpriced mediocrities Marquis and Lilly.

[cbbryan]

Will there even be money to keep Z beyond 2007? It would be tragic if Z walks because we are carrying overpriced mediocrities Marquis and Lilly.

 

From what I've heard, Z's agent and Hendry where suppose to sit down sometime around spring training and try to work out an extension.

[abuck1220]

 

do you really think they'll send a healthy miller to the pen at hill's expense?

If Hill is pitching better, yes. To think otherwise would be to think that Hendry and Piniella are idiots who don't know that going with your best 5 pitchers in your starting rotation is the best way to win baseball games. You don't think that, do you?

 

yes, i do. hendry has done it before. estes and rusch were both worse than several other options, and it didn't stop him from keeping them on the roster.

 

it's like you haven't watched the cubs the past few seasons...have you not seen clearly inferior players get priority? neifi, estes, rusch, lenny harris, ordonez, bynum, etc.

[abuck1220]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

[CubsWin]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

No way? He just did it a couple of months ago.