Some thoughts on Soriano's OBP

[kroth1342]

Clearly the amount of debate regarding Soriano's OBP and whether or not he will perform at a 2006 OBP level or regress towards his career average echoes the desires of this board for the team to increase their OBP overall. I think some work by Nate Silver can enlighten us as to Soriano's value towards increasing OBP and the Cubs' run scoring ability.

 

In an article from 2005, Silver attempts to quantify the value of a SB compared to a time reaching base (TRB). Referencing only leadoff situations, Silver found a SB worth 36.6% of a TRB. As he put it: "20 steals are about as valuable as 7 walks." He further goes on to describe a formula to calculate stolen base adjusted OBP (SBOBP):

 

(H + BB + HBP + (SB * .366)--CS) / (PA-SH)

 

For 2006, Soriano's SBOBP:

 

(179 + 67 + 9 + (41 * .366) - 17) / (716 - 2) = .354

an increase of .003 from his .351 OBP

 

For his career:

 

(1091 + 224 + 55 + (210 * .366) - 60) / (4189 - 8) = .331

an increase of .006 from his career .325 OBP

 

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Potentially just as important, however, is factor in a player's ability to use his baserunning skills to score runs at a rate higher than the replacement level runner. To accomplish this, Silver alters his metric slightly to account for the aforementioned stat, Equivalent Basestealing Runs (EqBr):

 

New SBOBP

 

(H + BB + HBP + (SB * .366) - CS + (EqBr * 2.27) / (PA - SH)

 

(179 + 67 + 9 + (41 * .366) - 17 + (1.4 * 2.27) / (716 - 2) = .358

 

A note: the value used for EqBr is from Soriano's 2005 season. I am not sure how much these metrics fluctuate from year to year, but an increase to 2.0 EqBr means a .360 SBOBP, and to 3.0 means a .364 SBOBP.

 

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Clearly, with a player like Soriano, OBP is not and never will be his primary addition to the ballclub. What I think is important, is that we recognize that if he steals bases and runs the bases in an efficient manner, he will be doing his part to increase his (and the Cubs') scoring chances for 2007 and beyond - regardless of OBP.

 

Link:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4344

[Abe Frohman]

Perhaps the Cubs could get Jeff Pentland to work with him the way he did with Sammy. If Soriano could cut down on the K's, and more importantly - walk 50-100 times a year - he would be an absolute MONSTER offensively.

[tkenm356]

I have a lot of faith in Gerald Perry. I think he'll be able to turn our hitters patience around at least a little, if not a lot. Plus, while Soriano had a .351 total OBP last year, his OBP from the lead off spot was a comfy .368. The last time he primarily hit lead-off prior to joining the Nationals was in 2003 with NY, when he was still walloping the ball and was just starting to hit his prime. I think with his early prime years behind him, and him being in the middle of it, he's grown accustomed to the lead-off spot. I don't think a .350OBP isn't out of line for Soriano to reach, especially if he had a .368 one in the lead off spot last year, and especially if Gerald Perry teaches our hitters the patience they so desperately need.

 

That's just me though

[radarluv1]

Clearly the amount of debate regarding Soriano's OBP and whether or not he will perform at a 2006 OBP level or regress towards his career average echoes the desires of this board for the team to increase their OBP overall. I think some work by Nate Silver can enlighten us as to Soriano's value towards increasing OBP and the Cubs' run scoring ability.

 

In an article from 2005, Silver attempts to quantify the value of a SB compared to a time reaching base (TRB). Referencing only leadoff situations, Silver found a SB worth 36.6% of a TRB. As he put it: "20 steals are about as valuable as 7 walks." He further goes on to describe a formula to calculate stolen base adjusted OBP (SBOBP):

 

(H + BB + HBP + (SB * .366)--CS) / (PA-SH)

 

For 2006, Soriano's SBOBP:

 

(179 + 67 + 9 + (41 * .366) - 17) / (716 - 2) = .354

an increase of .003 from his .351 OBP

 

For his career:

 

(1091 + 224 + 55 + (210 * .366) - 60) / (4189 - 8) = .331

an increase of .006 from his career .325 OBP

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Potentially just as important, however, is factor in a player's ability to use his baserunning skills to score runs at a rate higher than the replacement level runner. To accomplish this, Silver alters his metric slightly to account for the aforementioned stat, Equivalent Basestealing Runs (EqBr):

 

New SBOBP

 

(H + BB + HBP + (SB * .366) - CS + (EqBr * 2.27) / (PA - SH)

 

(179 + 67 + 9 + (41 * .366) - 17 + (1.4 * 2.27) / (716 - 2) = .358

 

A note: the value used for EqBr is from Soriano's 2005 season. I am not sure how much these metrics fluctuate from year to year, but an increase to 2.0 EqBr means a .360 SBOBP, and to 3.0 means a .364 SBOBP.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Clearly, with a player like Soriano, OBP is not and never will be his primary addition to the ballclub. What I think is important, is that we recognize that if he steals bases and runs the bases in an efficient manner, he will be doing his part to increase his (and the Cubs') scoring chances for 2007 and beyond - regardless of OBP.

 

Link:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4344

 

i couldnt read the whole article, but i think it makes more sense to see SBs as a way to complement SG% not OBP. obviously scoring runs is the goal, but SBs are sort of a way to add a base/PA, but not decreasing the percentage at which you make an out like OBP.

[dan.gold]

uppin this powerful thread

[Ding Dong Johnson]

uppin this powerful thread

 

For what reason?

[CubinNY]

uppin this powerful thread

 

For what reason?

 

B/c Soriano can't get on base?

[dan.gold]

Okay, I'd say that my biggest problem with this message board is people overreaction to the most minor events and daily changes in the Cubs universe. For example, I remember after Mark Prior had his good ST outing (don't remember which one it was) that someone had his 2008 or 2009 salary at $10+ million. Then Prior has a bad outing, and are (unsurprisingly) posts about trading, releasing, or figuring out what to do with Prior. Oh, but god forbid someone makes a "Prior towel drill" or "Prior injury" joke, because the lords of the board who decide what is and isn't appropriate will smote thee down.

 

Obviously no one is pleased with Soriano's play up to this point (6th inning against Arroyo), but what I was impressed with was kroth1342's ability to taking something from BP (a website the majority of the board reads/co-signs) and apply it to the Cubs' acquisition of Soriano and our need for increased OBP at the top of the lineup. I found it an intelligent, innovative post, markedly different from the usual short, sound bite-esque posts that can dominate this board at time. It was an inciteful attempt to stimulate discussion on the board.

 

In the future, I'd certainly like to read more posts like this, and that's why I was uppin it.

[Soriano12]

Okay, I'd say that my biggest problem with this message board is people overreaction to the most minor events and daily changes in the Cubs universe. For example, I remember after Mark Prior had his good ST outing (don't remember which one it was) that someone had his 2008 or 2009 salary at $10+ million. Then Prior has a bad outing, and are (unsurprisingly) posts about trading, releasing, or figuring out what to do with Prior. Oh, but god forbid someone makes a "Prior towel drill" or "Prior injury" joke, because the lords of the board who decide what is and isn't appropriate will smote thee down.

 

Obviously no one is pleased with Soriano's play up to this point (6th inning against Arroyo), but what I was impressed with was kroth1342's ability to taking something from BP (a website the majority of the board reads/co-signs) and apply it to the Cubs' acquisition of Soriano and our need for increased OBP at the top of the lineup. I found it an intelligent, innovative post, markedly different from the usual short, sound bite-esque posts that can dominate this board at time. It was an inciteful attempt to stimulate discussion on the board.

 

In the future, I'd certainly like to read more posts like this, and that's why I was uppin it.

 

With no search function how did you find this thread? Bookmark?

[dan.gold]

Okay, I'd say that my biggest problem with this message board is people overreaction to the most minor events and daily changes in the Cubs universe. For example, I remember after Mark Prior had his good ST outing (don't remember which one it was) that someone had his 2008 or 2009 salary at $10+ million. Then Prior has a bad outing, and are (unsurprisingly) posts about trading, releasing, or figuring out what to do with Prior. Oh, but god forbid someone makes a "Prior towel drill" or "Prior injury" joke, because the lords of the board who decide what is and isn't appropriate will smote thee down.

 

Obviously no one is pleased with Soriano's play up to this point (6th inning against Arroyo), but what I was impressed with was kroth1342's ability to taking something from BP (a website the majority of the board reads/co-signs) and apply it to the Cubs' acquisition of Soriano and our need for increased OBP at the top of the lineup. I found it an intelligent, innovative post, markedly different from the usual short, sound bite-esque posts that can dominate this board at time. It was an inciteful attempt to stimulate discussion on the board.

 

In the future, I'd certainly like to read more posts like this, and that's why I was uppin it.

 

With no search function how did you find this thread? Bookmark?

 

about a million clicks through the forum

[Ding Dong Johnson]

what I was impressed with was kroth1342's ability to taking something from BP...

 

Don't tweak anything giving yourself a pat on the back. If ever a statement deserved this: :roll:

[cubweiser03]

In an article from 2005, Silver attempts to quantify the value of a SB compared to a time reaching base (TRB). Referencing only leadoff situations, Silver found a SB worth 36.6% of a TRB. As he put it: "20 steals are about as valuable as 7 walks." He further goes on to describe a formula to calculate stolen base adjusted OBP (SBOBP):

 

(H + BB + HBP + (SB * .366)--CS) / (PA-SH)

 

For 2006, Soriano's SBOBP:

 

(179 + 67 + 9 + (41 * .366) - 17) / (716 - 2) = .354

an increase of .003 from his .351 OBP

 

Silver is only referencing 'only leadoff situations' but then applies ALL 41SBs to Soriano's SBOBP. He came up with the 36.6% value based on leadoff situations, i bet if he runs numbers on SB with 1 and 2 outs it is going to be less. The already recognized charts of runs scored with getting runners on with no outs, 1 out and 2 out would lead us to this conclusion also.

 

I think its much simplier to just subtract the CS from the OBP and then add the 41SB to his SLG % if you want to put a value to the SB's.

[E.J.]

Okay, I'd say that my biggest problem with this message board is people overreaction to the most minor events and daily changes in the Cubs universe. For example, I remember after Mark Prior had his good ST outing (don't remember which one it was) that someone had his 2008 or 2009 salary at $10+ million. Then Prior has a bad outing, and are (unsurprisingly) posts about trading, releasing, or figuring out what to do with Prior. Oh, but god forbid someone makes a "Prior towel drill" or "Prior injury" joke, because the lords of the board who decide what is and isn't appropriate will smote thee down.

 

Obviously no one is pleased with Soriano's play up to this point (6th inning against Arroyo), but what I was impressed with was kroth1342's ability to taking something from BP (a website the majority of the board reads/co-signs) and apply it to the Cubs' acquisition of Soriano and our need for increased OBP at the top of the lineup. I found it an intelligent, innovative post, markedly different from the usual short, sound bite-esque posts that can dominate this board at time. It was an inciteful attempt to stimulate discussion on the board.

 

In the future, I'd certainly like to read more posts like this, and that's why I was uppin it.

 

With no search function how did you find this thread? Bookmark?

 

about a million clicks through the forum

 

Or the fact that it was your own thread so it was probably no problem for you to find it. I can't even say how completely ridiculous it is to bump a thread you made under a different name and then pat yourself on the back with your new name.

[cubweiser03]

Okay, I'd say that my biggest problem with this message board is people overreaction to the most minor events and daily changes in the Cubs universe. For example, I remember after Mark Prior had his good ST outing (don't remember which one it was) that someone had his 2008 or 2009 salary at $10+ million. Then Prior has a bad outing, and are (unsurprisingly) posts about trading, releasing, or figuring out what to do with Prior. Oh, but god forbid someone makes a "Prior towel drill" or "Prior injury" joke, because the lords of the board who decide what is and isn't appropriate will smote thee down.

 

Obviously no one is pleased with Soriano's play up to this point (6th inning against Arroyo), but what I was impressed with was kroth1342's ability to taking something from BP (a website the majority of the board reads/co-signs) and apply it to the Cubs' acquisition of Soriano and our need for increased OBP at the top of the lineup. I found it an intelligent, innovative post, markedly different from the usual short, sound bite-esque posts that can dominate this board at time. It was an inciteful attempt to stimulate discussion on the board.

 

In the future, I'd certainly like to read more posts like this, and that's why I was uppin it.

 

With no search function how did you find this thread? Bookmark?

 

about a million clicks through the forum

 

Or the fact that it was your own thread so it was probably no problem for you to find it. I can't even say how completely ridiculous it is to bump a thread you made under a different name and then pat yourself on the back with your new name.

 

Ha thats funny, i never paid attention to how old this thread was til now.

[Jehrico]

what I was impressed with was kroth1342's ability to taking something from BP...

 

Don't tweak anything giving yourself a pat on the back. If ever a statement deserved this: :roll:

I was about to comment on a newb with 23 posts criticizing the whole board until I saw this post. I figured you'd already said more than I could have.

[Soriano12]

dan.pwned.

[BigbadB]

Alright. Enough now.

[hardcorecubfan]

I think we then agree that he should not be a lead-off hitter put him as a #5

[BigbadB]

I think we then agree that he should not be a lead-off hitter put him as a #5

 

I'm perfectly fine with him at lead off. And I probably won't be changing my mind on that anytime soon.

[Butterscup1679666578]

I think we then agree that he should not be a lead-off hitter put him as a #5

 

I'm perfectly fine with him at lead off. And I probably won't be changing my mind on that anytime soon.

 

Same here. Until there is a larger sample size showing he is really struggling at the top, I don't think we should even think about bumping him.

[NCCubFan]

I don't think we should even think about bumping him.

Bump his thread, yes. Bump him, no. :D

[hardcorecubfan]

I think we then agree that he should not be a lead-off hitter put him as a #5

 

I'm perfectly fine with him at lead off. And I probably won't be changing my mind on that anytime soon.

 

How long would it take you then to change your mind? Just curious

[papabear58]

What does uppin a thread mean?

[Jehrico]

I think we then agree that he should not be a lead-off hitter put him as a #5

 

I'm perfectly fine with him at lead off. And I probably won't be changing my mind on that anytime soon.

I'm torn on this one. Normally, I would say his skill set is more appropriate for hitting behind Aramis. However, his historical dropoff in production when he's not hitting leadoff makes me hesitant to gamble with his slot in the lineup. Any gain we might make by putting someone with higher OBP would be more than overriden by the drop in production from Soriano. That is, if you assume his historical splits between different positions in the lineup holds true.

[seanimal]

I think we then agree that he should not be a lead-off hitter put him as a #5

 

I'm perfectly fine with him at lead off. And I probably won't be changing my mind on that anytime soon.

I'm torn on this one. Normally, I would say his skill set is more appropriate for hitting behind Aramis. However, his historical dropoff in production when he's not hitting leadoff makes me hesitant to gamble with his slot in the lineup. Any gain we might make by putting someone with higher OBP would be more than overriden by the drop in production from Soriano. That is, if you assume his historical splits between different positions in the lineup holds true.

 

I think having a leadoff hitter that can hit 40 hr is pretty awesome. Just my $.02