Cubs Pursuing Lilly

[abuck1220]

I'm not sure that's true. Dempster has only started a handful of games in the past few years, and was worse then Meche has ever been.

 

He's also been as good as Meche has ever been. And he's much less expensive. Risk is more than the player's ability, but his cost. Ryan Dempster is Meche in 2 years. Live arm, has shown glimpses, but never put it together. The biggest difference is that Dempster put together 3 straight years of 200+ innings, while Meche never did, and Ryan is far less expensive.

 

When was the last time Dempster was as good as Meche has ever been? 2001? 2000? He last pitched 200 innings in 2002, and he was bad. I understand the spirit of what you are saying, but saying Ryan is no bigger a gamble in the rotation than Meche is a real stretch.

I'd wager that someone from the group of Dempster, Cotts, Marshall or Guzman could match Meche's numbers next year.

 

I'm not confident of that. Not remotely.

 

meche's era+ the last three years have been 86, 85 and 97. marshall's was 83 last year. you could say that meche is/will be better, but he's not $9.7 mil better. if meche is $9.7 mil better than marshall, zambrano is going to get a $600 mil contract.

[Garwilly]

I'm not sure that's true. Dempster has only started a handful of games in the past few years, and was worse then Meche has ever been.

 

He's also been as good as Meche has ever been. And he's much less expensive. Risk is more than the player's ability, but his cost. Ryan Dempster is Meche in 2 years. Live arm, has shown glimpses, but never put it together. The biggest difference is that Dempster put together 3 straight years of 200+ innings, while Meche never did, and Ryan is far less expensive.

 

When was the last time Dempster was as good as Meche has ever been? 2001? 2000? He last pitched 200 innings in 2002, and he was bad. I understand the spirit of what you are saying, but saying Ryan is no bigger a gamble in the rotation than Meche is a real stretch.

I'd wager that someone from the group of Dempster, Cotts, Marshall or Guzman could match Meche's numbers next year.

 

I'm not confident of that. Not remotely.

 

meche's era+ the last three years have been 86, 85 and 97. marshall's was 83 last year. you could say that meche is/will be better, but he's not $9.7 mil better. if meche is $9.7 mil better than marshall, zambrano is going to get a $600 mil contract.

 

I am fine with this.

[goonys evil twin]

zambrano is going to get a $600 mil contract.

 

I am fine with this.

 

He could probably leverage that contract into buying the Cubs, and then solve all their problems.

[VanceJergins]

zambrano is going to get a $600 mil contract.

 

I am fine with this.

 

He could probably leverage that contract into buying the Cubs, and then solve all their problems.

 

But then he'd be saddled with a $600 mil contract to begin his reign. Maybe he could then convince himself to take a massive pay cut for the good of his company.

[XZero771679666304]

I'm not sure that's true. Dempster has only started a handful of games in the past few years, and was worse then Meche has ever been.

 

He's also been as good as Meche has ever been. And he's much less expensive. Risk is more than the player's ability, but his cost. Ryan Dempster is Meche in 2 years. Live arm, has shown glimpses, but never put it together. The biggest difference is that Dempster put together 3 straight years of 200+ innings, while Meche never did, and Ryan is far less expensive.

 

When was the last time Dempster was as good as Meche has ever been? 2001? 2000? He last pitched 200 innings in 2002, and he was bad. I understand the spirit of what you are saying, but saying Ryan is no bigger a gamble in the rotation than Meche is a real stretch.

I'd wager that someone from the group of Dempster, Cotts, Marshall or Guzman could match Meche's numbers next year.

 

I'm not confident of that. Not remotely.

 

meche's era+ the last three years have been 86, 85 and 97. marshall's was 83 last year. you could say that meche is/will be better, but he's not $9.7 mil better. if meche is $9.7 mil better than marshall, zambrano is going to get a $600 mil contract.

 

So we'd be better off not signing guys like Lilly and Meche, and just slot Marshall and company into the empty slots and pray we can get the needed innings out of them?

 

The market is freaky crazy, and we need guys likely to give us innings. I don't like it, but it's something that we need to reconcile with. Counting on our mediocre and unproven kids because top talent is unavailable would be a poor way to go about things if we want any chance in 2007. Nothing I saw in the performance or numbers of Marshall, Guzman, Mateo or Marmol gave me any kind of confidence that they will get appreciably better, or be able to pitch a full season. Gil Meche and Ted Lilly were at least decent last year, which is more than can be said for most of our in house options.

 

Holding out for Schmidt could prove to be a disaster if doesn't sign with the Cubs. Hendry is going to have to get a couple of starters, even if it's guys like Meche and Lilly. I would hope he could get Schmidt as well.

 

But if the Cubs go into the season with Zambrano, Hill and Prior, Miller, Marshall, Guzman, Mateo, Dempster, Cotts and Marmol as the options for the rotation, you can kiss 2007 goodbye.

 

We could do that and load up for 2008, which may be the smartest thing, but we all know that isn't going to happen. If you don't like the idea of signing guys like Lilly and Meche for 2-3X what they're worth, you had better avert your eyes.

[fromthestretch]

zambrano is going to get a $600 mil contract.

 

I am fine with this.

 

He could probably leverage that contract into buying the Cubs, and then solve all their problems.

 

But then he'd be saddled with a $600 mil contract to begin his reign. Maybe he could then convince himself to take a massive pay cut for the good of his company.

 

It would be interesting to see how the union would react to that since he'd be player AND owner in that scenario. :lol:

[fromthestretch]

So we'd be better off not signing guys like Lilly and Meche, and just slot Marshall and company into the empty slots and pray we can get the needed innings out of them?

 

How are Meche and Lilly guaranteed to give you the innings you need?

[goonys evil twin]

So we'd be better off not signing guys like Lilly and Meche, and just slot Marshall and company into the empty slots and pray we can get the needed innings out of them?

 

The market is freaky crazy, and we need guys likely to give us innings. I don't like it, but it's something that we need to reconcile with.

 

You might be right, but then we might have to reconcile with the idea that the Cubs's most realistic goal is just being over .500. To me, there isn't much difference in satisfaction between being a 95 loss team or a 82 loss team. Jim seems to be willing to pay a ton of money to insure his team doesn't lose 90 games next year. But I'm not sure he's coming close to building a team that can win 90, let alone the 95-100 you need to be an elite team (and what his payroll should demand).

 

With all the praise he heard when the Cubs went back to back .500 seasons, it wouldn't be a surprise if that was his realistic goal, and what he needs to do to keep his job.

[CubinNY]

 

So we'd be better off not signing guys like Lilly and Meche, and just slot Marshall and company into the empty slots and pray we can get the needed innings out of them?

Holding out for Schmidt could prove to be a disaster if doesn't sign with the Cubs. Hendry is going to have to get a couple of starters, even if it's guys like Meche and Lilly. I would hope he could get Schmidt as well.

 

But if the Cubs go into the season with Zambrano, Hill and Prior, Miller, Marshall, Guzman, Mateo, Dempster, Cotts and Marmol as the options for the rotation, you can kiss 2007 goodbye.

 

IMO going into the seaon hoping Hill, Marshall, et al. improve is equivalent to going into the seaon hoping Meche and Lilly maintain.

 

Neither option is good.

[Elrhino]

o we'd be better off not signing guys like Lilly and Meche, and just slot Marshall and company into the empty slots and pray we can get the needed innings out of them?

 

We're going to have to pray we get the needed innings out of Lilly and Meche too. Neither one have proven themselves to be dependable workhorses in their careers.

[XZero771679666304]

 

So we'd be better off not signing guys like Lilly and Meche, and just slot Marshall and company into the empty slots and pray we can get the needed innings out of them?

Holding out for Schmidt could prove to be a disaster if doesn't sign with the Cubs. Hendry is going to have to get a couple of starters, even if it's guys like Meche and Lilly. I would hope he could get Schmidt as well.

 

But if the Cubs go into the season with Zambrano, Hill and Prior, Miller, Marshall, Guzman, Mateo, Dempster, Cotts and Marmol as the options for the rotation, you can kiss 2007 goodbye.

 

IMO going into the seaon hoping Hill, Marshall, et al. improve is equivalent to going into the seaon hoping Meche and Lilly maintain.

 

Neither option is good.

 

No, neither is good. But I would put Meche and Lilly slightly higher on the probability scale.

[goonys evil twin]

No, neither is good. But I would put Meche and Lilly slightly higher on the probability scale.

 

And you're going to pay an enormous premium for that slight probability.

[XZero771679666304]

No, neither is good. But I would put Meche and Lilly slightly higher on the probability scale.

 

And you're going to pay an enormous premium for that slight probability.

 

No, but Jim Hendry and the tribune are, and I can understand some of the logic.

 

This is all I am trying to say: I would feel more comfortable with Meche or Lilly, money not withstanding. Lilly and Meche represent a safer bet than our in house options, but will come at a ridiculous premium. Hendry, in all likelihood, is going to pay that ridiculous premium, and rather than have my head explode thinking about the financial ramifications, I am trying to rationalize it as best I can.

[goonys evil twin]

No, neither is good. But I would put Meche and Lilly slightly higher on the probability scale.

 

And you're going to pay an enormous premium for that slight probability.

 

No, but Jim Hendry and the tribune are, and I can understand some of the logic.

 

This is all I am trying to say: I would feel more comfortable with Meche or Lilly, money not withstanding. Lilly and Meche represent a safer bet than our in house options, but will come at a ridiculous premium. Hendry, in all likelihood, is going to pay that ridiculous premium, and rather than have my head explode thinking about the financial ramifications, I am trying to rationalize it as best I can.

 

I definitely see what they are thinking.

 

All I'm saying is they are paying a huge sum in an attempt to guarantee mediocrity. Their goal seems to be to not lose 95 games, as opposed to try and field the best team possible.

 

I'd rather lose 100 in pursuit of 100 wins than win 81 in pursuit of 85 wins.

[TruffleShuffle]

No, neither is good. But I would put Meche and Lilly slightly higher on the probability scale.

 

And you're going to pay an enormous premium for that slight probability.

 

No, but Jim Hendry and the tribune are, and I can understand some of the logic.

 

This is all I am trying to say: I would feel more comfortable with Meche or Lilly, money not withstanding. Lilly and Meche represent a safer bet than our in house options, but will come at a ridiculous premium. Hendry, in all likelihood, is going to pay that ridiculous premium, and rather than have my head explode thinking about the financial ramifications, I am trying to rationalize it as best I can.

 

I definitely see what they are thinking.

 

All I'm saying is they are paying a huge sum in an attempt to guarantee mediocrity. Their goal seems to be to not lose 95 games, as opposed to try and field the best team possible.

 

I'd rather lose 100 in pursuit of 100 wins than win 81 in pursuit of 85 wins.

 

The question is, how can the Cubs reasonably pursue 100 wins with the team they have now?

[goonys evil twin]

The question is, how can the Cubs reasonably pursue 100 wins with the team they have now?

 

If the money is truly there, you could sign Schmidt and Bonds, and then fill in the rotation with your leftovers and hope a couple guys improve.

 

It's not an ideal approach. Hendry took away the chance for an ideal roster a long time ago.

[XZero771679666304]

No, neither is good. But I would put Meche and Lilly slightly higher on the probability scale.

 

And you're going to pay an enormous premium for that slight probability.

 

No, but Jim Hendry and the tribune are, and I can understand some of the logic.

 

This is all I am trying to say: I would feel more comfortable with Meche or Lilly, money not withstanding. Lilly and Meche represent a safer bet than our in house options, but will come at a ridiculous premium. Hendry, in all likelihood, is going to pay that ridiculous premium, and rather than have my head explode thinking about the financial ramifications, I am trying to rationalize it as best I can.

 

I definitely see what they are thinking.

 

All I'm saying is they are paying a huge sum in an attempt to guarantee mediocrity. Their goal seems to be to not lose 95 games, as opposed to try and field the best team possible.

 

I'd rather lose 100 in pursuit of 100 wins than win 81 in pursuit of 85 wins.

 

The question is, how can the Cubs reasonably pursue 100 wins with the team they have now?

 

They can't, that's the problem. The best they can do is go after the best that's out there, which unfortunately isn't very good. The Cubs picked a poor offseason to start spending.

[goonys evil twin]

They can't, that's the problem. The best they can do is go after the best that's out there, which unfortunately isn't very good. The Cubs picked a poor offseason to start spending.

 

If they went for the best that's out there they wouldn't be looking at Lilly and Meche.

[nilodnayr]

No, neither is good. But I would put Meche and Lilly slightly higher on the probability scale.

 

And you're going to pay an enormous premium for that slight probability.

 

No, but Jim Hendry and the tribune are, and I can understand some of the logic.

 

This is all I am trying to say: I would feel more comfortable with Meche or Lilly, money not withstanding. Lilly and Meche represent a safer bet than our in house options, but will come at a ridiculous premium. Hendry, in all likelihood, is going to pay that ridiculous premium, and rather than have my head explode thinking about the financial ramifications, I am trying to rationalize it as best I can.

 

I definitely see what they are thinking.

 

All I'm saying is they are paying a huge sum in an attempt to guarantee mediocrity. Their goal seems to be to not lose 95 games, as opposed to try and field the best team possible.

 

I'd rather lose 100 in pursuit of 100 wins than win 81 in pursuit of 85 wins.

 

The question is, how can the Cubs reasonably pursue 100 wins with the team they have now?

 

Umm, isnt' that why we are talking about them acquiring players? Does that mean they should not do everything in their power to put together a team that could win 100 games?

 

Sure, if money were no option I would prefer Lilly/Meche by a bit. Goonys point is the marginal advantage they have over Marshall/Guz is way too small compared to their cost. While, the marginal advantage Schmidt has over Lilly/Meche is relatively equivalent if not a bargain compared to the cost difference.

[XZero771679666304]

They can't, that's the problem. The best they can do is go after the best that's out there, which unfortunately isn't very good. The Cubs picked a poor offseason to start spending.

 

If they went for the best that's out there they wouldn't be looking at Lilly and Meche.

 

I'm not convinced they're not interested in Schmidt, but I wonder about his willingness to come to Chicago. I hope he does, but doubt he will. Zito would be an unmitigated disaster in the NL central.

 

In lieu of Schmidt, Lilly and Meche seem to be the top options.

[TruffleShuffle]

Umm, isnt' that why we are talking about them acquiring players? Does that mean they should not do everything in their power to put together a team that could win 100 games?

 

Sure, if money were no option I would prefer Lilly/Meche by a bit. Goonys point is the marginal advantage they have over Marshall/Guz is way too small compared to their cost. While, the marginal advantage Schmidt has over Lilly/Meche is relatively equivalent if not a bargain compared to the cost difference.

 

The Cubs can't win 100 games this year unless they sign Schmidt, Bonds, Zito, and maybe another bench player.

[XZero771679666304]

Umm, isnt' that why we are talking about them acquiring players? Does that mean they should not do everything in their power to put together a team that could win 100 games?

 

Sure, if money were no option I would prefer Lilly/Meche by a bit. Goonys point is the marginal advantage they have over Marshall/Guz is way too small compared to their cost. While, the marginal advantage Schmidt has over Lilly/Meche is relatively equivalent if not a bargain compared to the cost difference.

 

The Cubs can't win 100 games this year unless they sign Schmidt, Bonds, Zito, and maybe another bench player.

 

If the Cubs signed Schmidt and Prior came back healthy, they could win 100 with the current offense, IMO. I think the Cubs will be either good or great in 2007, with Prior being the deciding factor between the two.

[BigbadB]

Umm, isnt' that why we are talking about them acquiring players? Does that mean they should not do everything in their power to put together a team that could win 100 games?

 

Sure, if money were no option I would prefer Lilly/Meche by a bit. Goonys point is the marginal advantage they have over Marshall/Guz is way too small compared to their cost. While, the marginal advantage Schmidt has over Lilly/Meche is relatively equivalent if not a bargain compared to the cost difference.

 

The Cubs can't win 100 games this year unless they sign Schmidt, Bonds, Zito, and maybe another bench player.

 

If the Cubs signed Schmidt and Prior came back healthy, they could win 100 with the current offense, IMO. I think the Cubs will be either good or great in 2007, with Prior being the deciding factor between the two.

 

I don't see the Cubs offense as being good enough. Figure Blanco at nearly 50 games, and you have a line up that features Blanco, Izturis and DeRosa (who is really an unknown in productivity this coming year), and who knows who will be in CF. The offense still needs a lot of work.

[TruffleShuffle]

Umm, isnt' that why we are talking about them acquiring players? Does that mean they should not do everything in their power to put together a team that could win 100 games?

 

Sure, if money were no option I would prefer Lilly/Meche by a bit. Goonys point is the marginal advantage they have over Marshall/Guz is way too small compared to their cost. While, the marginal advantage Schmidt has over Lilly/Meche is relatively equivalent if not a bargain compared to the cost difference.

 

The Cubs can't win 100 games this year unless they sign Schmidt, Bonds, Zito, and maybe another bench player.

 

If the Cubs signed Schmidt and Prior came back healthy, they could win 100 with the current offense, IMO. I think the Cubs will be either good or great in 2007, with Prior being the deciding factor between the two.

 

Well, I guess the Cubs will be good in 2007.

[baseball7897]

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs are offering Ted Lilly at least $40 million and maybe $44 million for four years.

 

The report states that the Cubs, like the Jays, are hoping to sign both Lilly and Gil Meche.