Cubs sign Soriano

[JWCUB]

Wow. Just wow. The Cubs really do want to win.

[Soriano12]

Consider this, in 2014, 17 million will probably be a bargain for a 38 year old

CF with declining skills.

[Chocolate Milk]

I have a hard time being too critical of this signing without knowing what our payroll will be. If it is $130M+ there will be tons of money to upgrade CF, and add 2 high quality starters. If it is 105 we are in a financial bind at the moment.

 

Exactly. This signing is only cost prohibitive if the Cubs make it so. If they refuse to spend to sign other players because of this contract, then obviously it will be harmful. If it doesn't effect their spending too much, then it will probably be alright. There's no hard cap here. The Cubs can do whatever they want.

 

This signing says to me that they are going spend more than they have in past. If that's the case (it's clearly pure speculation at this point), I'm not really worried about the money.

[nilodnayr]

Now thats just ridiculous. I realize you like Drew, but lets try dealing in reality.

 

It's not ridiculous.

 

Pierre to Soriano for 526 outs = + 30 runs

Pierre to JD Drew for (120/162)*526 outs = + 37 runs

 

Sure, there is a margin for error. Like some of those displaced outs from Drew having a higher OBP going to scrubs like Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Regardless, at the worst Drew for 120 games is the same as Soriano for 162 games.

 

And the assumption of Pie = Pierre

 

what numbers are you using? last year? career? three year? which ever makes your point stronger?

 

??

its a couple pages back but I think it was an average of 2005 and 2006 ML EqA and PECOTAs 2007 projection, which ended up being slightly ahead of whatever Pierre # he used. So regardless of last year, career, three year, it is accurate looking at the Pie information that is available.

[A New Era]

I have a hard time being too critical of this signing without knowing what our payroll will be. If it is $130M+ there will be tons of money to upgrade CF, and add 2 high quality starters. If it is 105 we are in a financial bind at the moment.

 

Exactly. This signing is only cost prohibitive if the Cubs make it so. If they refuse to spend to sign other players because of this contract, then obviously it will be harmful. If it doesn't effect their spending too much, then it will probably be alright. There's no hard cap here. The Cubs can do whatever they want.

 

This signing says to me that they are going spend more than they have in past. If that's the case (it's clearly pure speculation at this point), I'm not really worried about the money.

 

All signs (articles) point to JH not slowing down. I have no doubt JH will sign atleast 2 pitchers of the quality of a Westbrook at a Meche.

[Rob]

I have a hard time being too critical of this signing without knowing what our payroll will be. If it is $130M+ there will be tons of money to upgrade CF, and add 2 high quality starters. If it is 105 we are in a financial bind at the moment.

 

Exactly. This signing is only cost prohibitive if the Cubs make it so. If they refuse to spend to sign other players because of this contract, then obviously it will be harmful. If it doesn't effect their spending too much, then it will probably be alright. There's no hard cap here. The Cubs can do whatever they want.

 

This signing says to me that they are going spend more than they have in past. If that's the case (it's clearly pure speculation at this point), I'm not really worried about the money.

 

All signs (articles) point to JH not slowing down. I have no doubt JH will sign atleast 2 pitchers of the quality of a Westbrook at a Meche.

 

Since when is Meche quality?

[Bull]

the problem with the suggestion of trading Izturis is, again, viewing things in a vacuum. you sign Lugo, everyone knows you are desperate to dump Izturis. Boston and Toronto could get by with what they had and just wait for him to be released if they want him and the Cubs would be paying Izturis to play for a different team. other than that, I don't know of a market for him (why would Cleveland want Izturis?)

 

Sign Lugo to "play CF". Then trade Izturis and move Lugo to short.

 

a $4.5M bluff? not when at least one of the other players has a much bigger stack than you.

not a bluff. just legitimately not desperate to trade.

[BigSlick]

Soriano is not very good.

 

I never thought I would have somone tell me a 40/40 guy is

not very good. Priceless.

 

He's alright, but as a guy who's a supposed "lead off" guy, he doesn't have a great OBP. If he gives us 40/40 this year and out then for sure he's worth it.

 

Its a mite big, but its better than not having anyone. Hopefully he's not a disaster in Center Field. He turned out to be an above average defender in left field, IIRC.

 

We'll have a lineup consisting of Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Soriano, decent Right Fielder....etc. It'll be a decent offense.

 

Now lets lock up some pitching.

[jjgman21]

no worries on the quote issue, they are long behind us

 

I disagree, the critics (me, KC, TT, Jon, Navin, and Rob) are using all the information taht is available to make our claim. We do not propose to know everything or be able to predict what will happen in the future.

 

you may have wanted to hold onto that before KC's posts about Pie.

 

Im not sure what KC used for Pie's numbers if by chance Drew did go down for 40 or how many ever games, but I'm guessing he used MLE. KC, can you expound?

 

I wasn't talking about the numbers. I was talking about his assertion that 40 games in the majors before he is ready won't hurt his development.

 

That is pure speculation on both parts. And I think you agreed that because it would be 40 continuous games rather than riding the pine for a bunch of time it probably wouldnt be too bad. In fact many players claim that it really helps them to have a cup of coffee not only to see major league pitchers but to really understand the schedule, lifestyle, media, and all other intangible differences between a minor leaguer and major league life.

 

no, it's not speculation on both parts. I clearly stated I think it may have a negative impact on development and the Cubs shouldn't take the chance. KC clearly stated that it definitely wouldn't. the entire point of this discussion was your erroneous claim that the harsh critics don't "propose to know everything or be able to predict what will happen in the future."

 

seems to me KC made a pretty definitive statement about what would happen in the future.

[Andy]

Consider this, in 2014, 17 million will probably be a bargain for a 38 year old

CF with declining skills.

I seriously doubt that. But it's still worth the risk IMO.

[Chocolate Milk]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

[shnsajax]

Consider this, in 2014, 17 million will probably be a bargain for a 38 year old

CF with declining skills.

I seriously doubt that. But it's still worth the risk IMO.

 

If he gets on the juice around 36-37 then he will just be getting ready to peak :-).

[A New Era]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

 

Good point Chocolate Milk! Weren't there alot of people last year arguing that batting position didn't matter? Not saying those are the same people who say Soriano at lead-off is a bad idea though. .

[killthegoat06]

I may be mistaken, but isn't Jones our only left-handed hitter (Izturis doesnt count as a hitter)? Isn't it bad if we have 1, potentially no left handed hitters?

[jjgman21]

Now thats just ridiculous. I realize you like Drew, but lets try dealing in reality.

 

It's not ridiculous.

 

Pierre to Soriano for 526 outs = + 30 runs

Pierre to JD Drew for (120/162)*526 outs = + 37 runs

 

Sure, there is a margin for error. Like some of those displaced outs from Drew having a higher OBP going to scrubs like Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Regardless, at the worst Drew for 120 games is the same as Soriano for 162 games.

 

And the assumption of Pie = Pierre

 

what numbers are you using? last year? career? three year? which ever makes your point stronger?

 

??

its a couple pages back but I think it was an average of 2005 and 2006 ML EqA and PECOTAs 2007 projection, which ended up being slightly ahead of whatever Pierre # he used. So regardless of last year, career, three year, it is accurate looking at the Pie information that is available.

 

I was asking for the numbers he used for the Soriano v. Drew comparison actually. I am curious to see if people are continuing to inflate Soriano's 04-05 and ignore his 02-03 to make their point.

 

anyone up for having JD's .778 OPS from 2002 in this Cubs team in 2007?

 

again, I would have preferred Drew, I just want intellectual honesty in these arguments, especially when they use alot of stats many of us don't have a complete grasp of.

[UK1679666180]

I may be mistaken, but isn't Jones our only left-handed hitter (Izturis doesnt count as a hitter)? Isn't it bad if we have 1, potentially no left handed hitters?

 

Not if the RH'ers can hit RH'ers.

[A New Era]

I may be mistaken, but isn't Jones our only left-handed hitter (Izturis doesnt count as a hitter)? Isn't it bad if we have 1, potentially no left handed hitters?

 

No.

[jjgman21]

I may be mistaken, but isn't Jones our only left-handed hitter (Izturis doesnt count as a hitter)? Isn't it bad if we have 1, potentially no left handed hitters?

 

didn't hurt the 84 Cubs or the mid 90's Astros.

 

 

the biggest danger is certain types of pitchers will continue to dominate the Cubs lineup. the Soriano signing does nothing to address that.

[Soriano12]

I think the best move now would be to jump Jacque and put Pie full time in CF in 07. We have enough offensive fire to protect him in the lineup.

[nilodnayr]

 

no, it's not speculation on both parts. I clearly stated I think it may have a negative impact on development and the Cubs shouldn't take the chance. KC clearly stated that it definitely wouldn't. the entire point of this discussion was your erroneous claim that the harsh critics don't "propose to know everything or be able to predict what will happen in the future."

 

seems to me KC made a pretty definitive statement about what would happen in the future.

 

unrelated, but I was looking at Pie's splits from this year and noticed his BABIP was .342!! That doesn't give me much confidence in his 282 BA.

 

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=429712

[Mephistopheles]

seems to me KC made a pretty definitive statement about what would happen in the future.

 

all i said was that i based on the past its a good estimation that the drop off from pierre to pie was insignificant. i then used the career averages from soriano and lugo.

 

that's pretty standard and isnt projecting much

 

 

and on a side note, the mere fact that we can even consider arguing lugo means more than soriano to the cubs offense, certainly means with the contract differences soriano was a terrible choice

Edited November 20, 2006 by Mephistopheles

[Butterscup1679666578]

I think the best move now would be to jump Jacque and put Pie full time in CF in 07. We have enough offensive fire to protect him in the lineup.

 

I really don't like a lineup with 3 question marks in Pie, Izturis, and DeRosa.

[UK1679666180]

I think the best move now would be to jump Jacque and put Pie full time in CF in 07. We have enough offensive fire to protect him in the lineup.

 

1/3rd of the line-up will have to be protected.

 

(Izturis, Pie, SP)

[XZero771679666304]

I think the best move now would be to jump Jacque and put Pie full time in CF in 07. We have enough offensive fire to protect him in the lineup.

 

 

I know he's not popular, but that seems to be an extreme way of getting rid of him.

[jjgman21]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

 

Good point Chocolate Milk! Weren't there alot of people last year arguing that batting position didn't matter? Not saying those are the same people who say Soriano at lead-off is a bad idea though. .

 

actually, alot of them are the same people who scream that Pierre was leading off.

 

I think it does matter. if you have 8 hitters who have similar numbers it doesn't matter, but there are ways to stack the lineup to increase the chances of scoring runs.

 

IMO, Soriano's low OBP and high SLG screams to be put around the 6 hole. that way he drives in the 4 and 5 batters instead of the much fewer 8 and 9 batters, while not making outs in front of Aramis and Lee, and he also has speed so the lower end of the order doesn't need an extra base hit to drive him in when he gets on.