The market for mediocre pitching

[goonys evil twin]

I get the feeling that the run on mediocre pitchers we saw a couple years ago is going to pale in comparison to this offseason. Mediocre journeymen pitchers have dominated in the playoffs. Suppan just guaranteed himself $30 million easy, and quite possibly more.

 

The standard innings eater contract was 3/27 a couple years ago, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few 3/33, or even 4 year deals for some of the less than inspiring pitchers on the free agent market.

[JeffH]

What do you figure Schmidt will command?

[goonys evil twin]

What do you figure Schmidt will command?

 

Somebody might toss out something like 5/60, but if people are concerned about the health/age factors, it might be more like 4/48-50. I think he can get more than 3 years though.

[The Q]

I agree, as a Red Sox fan this is very distrubing. The Sox need some pitching but you're gonna be payin through the nose for...Jeff Suppan? No freakin way.

 

This is gonna be an ugly off season. Hopefully Theo learned his lesson about trying to go bargain basement on SPs (cough cough Matt Clement cough cough).

[goonys evil twin]

This is gonna be an ugly off season. Hopefully Theo learned his lesson about trying to go bargain basement on SPs (cough cough Matt Clement cough cough).

 

I wouldn't call that bargain basement. He was an expensive pickup. Bargain basement is guys like Miguel Batista or Jeff Suppan before this year.

[The Q]

I mean trying to not go out and sign an ace and instead try to patch together a staff with a few mediocre starters (signing Clement and Wells for basically the same amount as re-signing Pedro) and overpaying for mediocre pitching.

 

What a terrible off season that was btw:

 

Russ Ortiz

Carl Pavano

Matt Clement

 

Horrible Horrible signings.

 

You CANNOT CANNOT CANNOT overpay for mediocre pitching. You're better off saving your money and buying a better bullpen and more offense than paying Jeff Suppan $30 million.

[Derwood]

Pavano was a horrible signing because he was always hurt. We never saw what he could really do in NY

[Soriano12]

I'll laugh my ass off when Gil Meche gets 9 mil+ a season.

 

:lol:

[The Q]

Pavano was a horrible signing because he was always hurt. We never saw what he could really do in NY

 

I agree with that 100%.

 

Pavano is actually a family friend and I was very dissapointed he took less money to go to the Yanks (the b*tch wanted him there, but then she got cold feet about marriage and dumped him....serves him right lol) but I just hope some NL team takes a shot at him and he gets back to doin what he does.

[Mephistopheles]

Carl Pavano may have been hurt the entire time in New York, but I still don't think he would have performed well if healthy.

[Bruno7481]

Suppan isn't unhittable, but he is a very solid pitcher. He is very reliable, making 30+ starts and around 180-200 innings the past 4 years. Has pretty good control and an ERA around 3.80-4.15.

 

Depending on what happens during the winter I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him in to be a # 3 or 4. The Cubs need someone better than him, but pairing him up with a #1 or 2 wouldn't be a bad move.

 

 

Having said all that, he has probably made himself a lot of money with his pitching lately. I wouldn't pay him THAT much.

[Derwood]

Carl Pavano may have been hurt the entire time in New York, but I still don't think he would have performed well if healthy.

 

you're entitled to that opinion, but is has no basis in stats

[kylescubs23]

I agree Bruno, I was all for Suppan as our 3/4 starter, but now he has probably priced himself out of our range. He's not spectacular, but he is solid and makes his starts, a couple things we desperately need.

[The Q]

His career ERA+ is 101. That just defines mediocre.

[fromthestretch]

I'll laugh my ass off when Gil Meche gets 9 mil+ a season.

 

:lol:

 

 

I'll be crying if the Cubs are the ones that give him that much.

[Vinestal]

I'll laugh my ass off when Gil Meche gets 9 mil+ a season.

 

:lol:

 

 

I'll be crying if the Cubs are the ones that give him that much.

 

LOL thats just the kind of thing I could see us doing to, I wouldnt put it past Hendry, I mean look at what he gave Rusch anything is possible.

[The Q]

Meche could be a fantastic addition in the NL. Look at Chris Carpenter. He was terrible in Toronto...but had great stuff (like Meche)....and became a Cy Young guy in the NL.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Meche could be a fantastic addition in the NL. Look at Chris Carpenter. He was terrible in Toronto...but had great stuff (like Meche)....and became a Cy Young guy in the NL.

 

Difference is...the Cards signed Carpenter on the cheap, with the hope that once he got healthy he would reward them for their patience; which he has. Meche, IMO, will not be cheap to sign. Quite frankly, he won't be worth the bills he might get.

[NewUserName]

I should look this up by my guess is that over 75% of free agent pitchers arent "worth" what is paid for them. If you are going overpay money to bring in starting pitching, Jeff Suppan wouldnt be a bad pickup. Eats innings, good control and stays healthy. Very good 4/5 starter. Good 3/4. Personnally I would rather overpay him than Jason Schmidt. I am not saying Suppan is better, just wont cost has much and Schmidt has been fragile lately.

[Derwood]

Meche could be a fantastic addition in the NL. Look at Chris Carpenter. He was terrible in Toronto...but had great stuff (like Meche)....and became a Cy Young guy in the NL.

 

Difference is...the Cards signed Carpenter on the cheap, with the hope that once he got healthy he would reward them for their patience; which he has. Meche, IMO, will not be cheap to sign. Quite frankly, he won't be worth the bills he might get.

 

Our version of "could be great for cheap" is Miller. If he re-signs again, which I don't know why he wouldn't. The Cubs paid him for a year to rehab, the least he could do is sign for another year with us.

[ltb]

Carl Pavano may have been hurt the entire time in New York, but I still don't think he would have performed well if healthy.

 

you're entitled to that opinion, but is has no basis in stats

 

perhaps you should look at his stats before you post?

 

career ERA+: 100

 

2 of his 8 seasons included an ERA+ of over 100. that means he was below average, in terms of ERA+, for 3/4 of his time in the major leagues.

 

that's a statistical basis for being mediocre.

[The Q]

With Pavano you can throw most of his stats out cause he was really only healthy for 2 or 3 of his seasons.

[TruffleShuffle]

There are two kinds of mediocre free agent pitchers. There are the guys with higher strikeout rates and the "still unfilled potential" tag who can command $10 million or more per season. See Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, Carl Pavano. Andy Pettitte slots in as a little better than average, but still wildly overrated and overpaid.

 

Then there are the underappreciated mediocre starters like Suppan, Batista, Kenny Rogers for most of his career, Tim Wakefield. These guys usually have some things in common:

 

-low strikeout rates

-don't throw all that hard

-never had a really great year that stands out

-pitch in a hitter's park

-played in fairly low profile settings (non-playoff teams, small markets, or was nothing better than a 3rd/4th starter in the playoffs)

-didn't do anything really special in the playoffs (Derek Lowe would've made at least $3M less per year if not for his performance in the '04 playoffs)

-rather hittable, but low walk rates

-toward the middle or end of their career; no "potential" left to fulfill

 

 

These are guys who can be had from the bargain bin at $3-6M per year, half of what some of the guys above are making - and the bargain guys are just as good (going by ERA+) as the overrated guys. I'm hoping the Cubs bring in one of the $5M or so bargain guys who they can count on to pitch 200 innings with an ERA+ around 100.

[jtownie]

Meche could be a fantastic addition in the NL. Look at Chris Carpenter. He was terrible in Toronto...but had great stuff (like Meche)....and became a Cy Young guy in the NL.

 

Difference is...the Cards signed Carpenter on the cheap, with the hope that once he got healthy he would reward them for their patience; which he has. Meche, IMO, will not be cheap to sign. Quite frankly, he won't be worth the bills he might get.

Meche still has injury concerns as well. I'm not saying he won't get over-paid this off-season but with the Yanks SP debacle with overpaying Pavano and Wright I have to believe a lot of teams will be hesitant to overpay for Meche.

[rawaction]

 

 

These are guys who can be had from the bargain bin at $3-6M per year, half of what some of the guys above are making - and the bargain guys are just as good (going by ERA+) as the overrated guys. I'm hoping the Cubs bring in one of the $5M or so bargain guys who they can count on to pitch 200 innings with an ERA+ around 100.

 

I hope so too, but I hope that's not all they bring in, if the Cubs seriously want to improve their pitching.