Offseason Emphasis should be on pitching

[b_wiggy_66]

I have seen many posts regarding peoples 2007 teams. Most people are trying to bolster the lineup first. I think the number one priority should be pitching. The average team ERA for the 8 teams in the postseason this year is 4.14 while the Cubs ERA this year was 4.74. 24th in all of baseball. The Cubs need to get some solid big league starters who will pitch at least 175 innings if not more and put up an ERA under 4.25. At one point this year we had a rotation full of guys who had never pitched above AA before. Pitching is number one, specifically starting pitching. Look at 2003 we had Prior, Wood, Zambrano, and Clement all putting up good numbers and look where it took us. Hendry need to get starting pitchers this offseason, and at least 2 of them.

[SouthSideRyan]

And you're the starter of the Julio Lugo bandwagon :)

 

Anywho, I think the reason that I would focus on offense first is that there are a lot of pitchers in our system who in a best case scenario could throw 175 innings of 4.25 ERA. On the position player side, I don't see the same potential/depth.

[Handlebar McSkullet]

I agree to a point, i think the reason for the offensive empthasis is because they have a chance to sign one of the two best hitters(Soriano or Carlos Lee) in FA. Both have stated a desire to come here, and both fill a need.

 

But I agree that they need to bolster the rotation. If they cant get schmidt(im not even thinking about Zito), then signing mid range starters like Wolf or Lilly for example would be helpful.

[muntjack]

I sincerely believe we are not going to be giving starts to players like Les Walrond or Ryan O'Malley next year. Nor should we have to rush half a dozen AA kids into major roles on the staff.

 

Considering what we went through this year, an ERA under 5.00 is incredible.

[BigbadB]

I think the emphasis should be on improving wherever you can improve.

 

Why only concentrate on pitching? The offense was bad too.

 

The Cubs have developed ZERO position talent through their minor leagues. Aramis could walk. Most of us want Pierre gone as fast as he runs out a grounder to the 2nd baseman.

 

This team needs a lot of help. The #1 priority should be to improve wherever they can improve.

[Soriano12]

Great Freakin avatar!

 

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/images/mlb/fla/girardi_vert.jpg

[b_wiggy_66]

Well thanks and I agree that the offense needs to be addressed as well, but I believe that the starting pitching should be 1st priority. They need a couple of guys (not just one in Zito or Scmidt) like a Padilla, Wolf, Suppan, Lilly, heck I even think that Jeff Weaver will bounce back next year, and he is very durable. I'm not real big on Zito he walke 99 guys this year and his fly ball pitching would not bode well in Wrigley. However, if they could get Schmidt or Matsuzaka and still get one of those other guys, obviously that would be the best case scenario.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think most focus on the offense, because we have a number of young pitchers who, if they mature, could form the backbone of a successful staff. They weren't ready this year, but our prospects of filling out a strong rotation internally are much greater than filling out the line-up internally.

 

We have an ace in Zambrano. Then, there is Prior. What we will get from him is unknown, but he must be accounted for.

 

After those two, there's Hill followed by the litany of young arms in Marshall, Mateo, Guzman, Ryu, and Marmol. That's a lot of arms for a few spots.

 

Do we need to add some pitching? Yes, I think we do. I'd like to add one big time pitcher and one big time position player. I think both are needed.

[Backtobanks]

We all know that pitching is the name of the game, but the Cubs' offense wouldn't win many games unless the pitching staff throws 80 shutouts. I do think one FA starter (Zito or Schmidt) with Miller re-signed might get by. Zambrano, Zito/Schmidt, Hill, Prior, Marshall/Mateo/Guzman would be okay, but we need a Soriano/Andruw Jones along with Craig Wilson to platoon with JJones before we can say the offense is okay.

[Shilzzz]

And you're the starter of the Julio Lugo bandwagon :)

 

Anywho, I think the reason that I would focus on offense first is that there are a lot of pitchers in our system who in a best case scenario could throw 175 innings of 4.25 ERA. On the position player side, I don't see the same potential/depth.

 

sorry southsideryan, but i'm going to pick on yours.

 

how many times can you remember the best case scenario working out for the cubs?

 

personally i'm tired of if's. rich hill, okay. guzman is not ready. marshall is very mediocre. mateo will be good, maybe even very good, but not next year. we should not be comfortable with rich hill being any higher than a number four(with prior and miller taking turns on the disabled list/number 5 slot).

 

so that leaves us with two open spots. two very easy to fill open spots with all the 'talented young pitching' the cubs have. and i know at least a few responses will be that we should just keep the talented young pitching, but think about it realistically... what does hendry do? what will hendry do especially once he gets larry bowa? he isn't going to rebuild, because if he rebuilds then he failed with two of the greatest talented young arms any team has ever had, which would equal the end of his career in baseball.

 

the offense needs a plan at the plate more than two or three free agents/trade acquisitions. if, and i know what i said about if's, hendry can get a decent hitting coach offense will be less of a problem than pitching as the roster stands now.

[third eye]

J-Shils,

 

I'm with you. Yes the potential is there. But if we don't think we can get a 200 inning sub 4 ERA out of both the 2 and 3 slots from people we know have done it in the past, I think we're screwed. Hendry has acknowledged that it was a mistake to not have better proven pitching depth this year. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that he will go with a couple of number 4 starters through trade or free agency and assume that Hill will be a number two. I hope I'm wrong about this.

[SouthSideRyan]

the offense needs a plan at the plate more than two or three free agents/trade acquisitions. if, and i know what i said about if's, hendry can get a decent hitting coach offense will be less of a problem than pitching as the roster stands now.

 

Couldn't you say the same thing about our team's pitching philosophies? (Ironically going the opposite way; by NOT walking every other hitter)

 

I just look at right now if the starting pitching isn't addressed at all you have Zambrano/Hill/Prior/2 of Marshall/Mateo/Guzman/Marmol/Ryu/Gallagher/Veal

 

If the lineup isn't addressed at all you have 2 of Theriot/Izturis/Cedeno, 1 of Pagan/Pie, and Moore all the lineup.

 

My main problem is the backup plan for position players is ugly.

 

I don't want to see Cesar Izturis anywhere on this team next year, but I also don't want to see Ronny Cedeno leave Iowa until he reestablishes himself as a capable hitter there. That leaves the best of the 3 options for 2 spots as the much debated Ryan Theriot. I'm a fan of Theriot and would rather this thread not turn into another debate about him, but the point stands that if he's the most reliable of your Middle IF heading into next year, it's gonna be kinda ugly up the middle.

 

I don't want to see Pie in a major leauge uniform until he proves his 2nd half in Iowa wasn't a small sample size. If he keeps it up, I'm fine with him up around June, but I also don't want Angel Pagan, everyday player up until that point.

 

I have no problem playing a couple inexperienced guys on the team, but I don't want Felix Pie heading into the season as the 6 hitter (or even worse, leadoff)because we spent all our money on pitching

 

And before it's brought up, no I don't feel all or even most of those pitchers I listed for the 2 spots will be ready, but I'm fairly confident that choosing from those 7 pitchers you can sort it out and find 2 that would give you #4 stuff at virtually no cost.

[soccer10k]

I think the emphasis should be on improving wherever you can improve.

 

Why only concentrate on pitching? The offense was bad too.

 

The Cubs have developed ZERO position talent through their minor leagues. Aramis could walk. Most of us want Pierre gone as fast as he runs out a grounder to the 2nd baseman.

 

This team needs a lot of help. The #1 priority should be to improve wherever they can improve.

 

I agree completely. The Cubs need an all around improvement. If they focus on fixing either the offense or the pitching but not both, they will be a 4th place team at best next year.

[Guest]

Ah, if only I had some time on my hands.

 

What I want to do is to study the autocorrelation of 200 IP seasons by a pitcher. In other words, does a pitcher having a 200 IP season in year 1 accurately predict that he's going to have a 200 IP season in year 2?

 

My feeling is that a single 200 IP season only weakly predicts another 200 IP season in the coming year. However, multiple 200 IP seasons in a row would probably correlate pretty strongly (though I'm still guessing it would be under 0.7). Multiple 200 IP seasons and strong peripherals would correlate even more strongly, I think.

 

Anyway, where I'm going with this is that I'm not sure it's a whole lot safer to get a guy who has "proven" he can pitch 200 innings.

[frostwyrm]

Ah, if only I had some time on my hands.

 

What I want to do is to study the autocorrelation of 200 IP seasons by a pitcher. In other words, does a pitcher having a 200 IP season in year 1 accurately predict that he's going to have a 200 IP season in year 2?

 

My feeling is that a single 200 IP season only weakly predicts another 200 IP season in the coming year. However, multiple 200 IP seasons in a row would probably correlate pretty strongly (though I'm still guessing it would be under 0.7). Multiple 200 IP seasons and strong peripherals would correlate even more strongly, I think.

 

Anyway, where I'm going with this is that I'm not sure it's a whole lot safer to get a guy who has "proven" he can pitch 200 innings.

How about Zito? He's exceeded 210 innings for 6 straight seasons.

[TheDude]

I believe pitching must be a focus as well. The team certainly needs one major bat to slide in among Ramirez, Lee, Jones, and Barret, but it's not a bad lineup if managed correctly, and healthy.

 

But the Cubs starting pitching was as ugly I have ever seen, with dozens of starts under 5 innings. Three starters with 100 innings. Almost 700 bloddy walks. No team can win that.

 

The team needs two starting pitchers with light historical health issues, at least one of which is named Schmidt :).

[goonys evil twin]

I believe pitching must be a focus as well. The team certainly needs one major bat to slide in among Ramirez, Lee, Jones, and Barret, but it's not a bad lineup if managed correctly, and healthy.

 

But the Cubs starting pitching was as ugly I have ever seen, with dozens of starts under 5 innings. Three starters with 100 innings. Almost 700 bloddy walks. No team can win that.

 

The team needs two starting pitchers with light historical health issues, at least one of which is named Schmidt :).

 

I have a pretty big hangup with Schmidt and health issues. It seems every year he's flirting with disaster with some sort of arm issue, even though he has thrown 200+ 3 of the past 5 years. But he did miss starts in 2005, 2000 and 2001. In fact, up until 2003 he was a major question mark as far as IP/performance was concerned. Compare Schmidt to a guy like Mussina, who threw 200+ for 6 straight years before signing with the Yankees, and consistently putting up very solid ERA+ numbers during that time. Things started out great for Mussina in NY, but the past few years he's been pretty inconsistent, and has failed to put up 200 innings for 3 straight years.

 

Schmidt didn't start putting up great ERA+ numbers until 2003. And he'll start his new contract 2 years older than Mussina started his deal with NY, without the stable history. I'm sure he'll have at least 1, and probably 2 great years if he signs a 4-year deal. But I think he's going to be a huge risk for both uneven performance, and large amounts of games missed.

 

I just can't get over my hangup with Schmidt's inconsistently and health concerns. I'll be thrilled if the Cubs sign him (which I'm sure they won't), but something tells me we're going to go through a lot of ups and downs if he comes here.

[BigbadB]

How many teams are going to be in the bidding for Schmidt and Zito?

[Magnetic Curses]

How many teams are going to be in the bidding for Schmidt and Zito?

 

the thing is, we can afford to throw enough money at them to get them. why not do that?

 

it doesn't matter where people believe they will or will not go, the cubs have the money. and hendry's best quality is that he understands the place of pitching in the baseball dynamic. he misunderstands everything else, but he's got that going for him.

 

if we get schmidt and zito (and we have the money) and make a few other more minor moves, we're instantly in the playoffs next year, assuming health (and poth pitchers have been healthy).

 

there is not one other combination of players out there that can do that for us. not one.

[goonys evil twin]

How many teams are going to be in the bidding for Schmidt and Zito?

 

the thing is, we can afford to throw enough money at them to get them. why not do that?

 

Because it's stupid to put all your eggs in the pitching basket and ignore offense when offense has been your biggest problem for several years. You can cite the fluke teams that look good only because of pitching, but year in year out the real contenders are the teams that are good at pitching and hitting. It's asinine to purposefully make yourself a one dimensional team.

[Magnetic Curses]

How many teams are going to be in the bidding for Schmidt and Zito?

 

the thing is, we can afford to throw enough money at them to get them. why not do that?

 

Because it's stupid to put all your eggs in the pitching basket and ignore offense when offense has been your biggest problem for several years. You can cite the fluke teams that look good only because of pitching, but year in year out the real contenders are the teams that are good at pitching and hitting. It's asinine to purposefully make yourself a one dimensional team.

 

i think it's more asinine to make yourself mediocre at both, which is all that would happen.

 

might as well make yourslef excellent at pitching, when many teams have been successfull doing just that.

[goonys evil twin]

i think it's more asinine to make yourself mediocre at both, which is all that would happen.

 

might as well make yourslef excellent at pitching, when many teams have been successfull doing just that.

 

I have no interest in mediocre at both, and there's no reason why you would be. You aren't guaranteeing excellent pitching, there's no such thing.

[Shilzzz]

the offense needs a plan at the plate more than two or three free agents/trade acquisitions. if, and i know what i said about if's, hendry can get a decent hitting coach offense will be less of a problem than pitching as the roster stands now.

 

Couldn't you say the same thing about our team's pitching philosophies? (Ironically going the opposite way; by NOT walking every other hitter)

 

I just look at right now if the starting pitching isn't addressed at all you have Zambrano/Hill/Prior/2 of Marshall/Mateo/Guzman/Marmol/Ryu/Gallagher/Veal

 

If the lineup isn't addressed at all you have 2 of Theriot/Izturis/Cedeno, 1 of Pagan/Pie, and Moore all the lineup.

 

My main problem is the backup plan for position players is ugly.

 

I don't want to see Cesar Izturis anywhere on this team next year, but I also don't want to see Ronny Cedeno leave Iowa until he reestablishes himself as a capable hitter there. That leaves the best of the 3 options for 2 spots as the much debated Ryan Theriot. I'm a fan of Theriot and would rather this thread not turn into another debate about him, but the point stands that if he's the most reliable of your Middle IF heading into next year, it's gonna be kinda ugly up the middle.

 

I don't want to see Pie in a major leauge uniform until he proves his 2nd half in Iowa wasn't a small sample size. If he keeps it up, I'm fine with him up around June, but I also don't want Angel Pagan, everyday player up until that point.

 

I have no problem playing a couple inexperienced guys on the team, but I don't want Felix Pie heading into the season as the 6 hitter (or even worse, leadoff)because we spent all our money on pitching

 

And before it's brought up, no I don't feel all or even most of those pitchers I listed for the 2 spots will be ready, but I'm fairly confident that choosing from those 7 pitchers you can sort it out and find 2 that would give you #4 stuff at virtually no cost.

 

well let me rephrase myself by saying that i don't believe that the offense should stand put. there are definate improvements to be had, however, pitching is what wins championships and ultimately if a championship isn't won then the season wasn't successful.

 

cedeno should be nowhere near wrigley. he is basically neifi perez only younger. though i'm not sure how you figure that either moore, pagan or pie will have to be in the lineup. it's hard to believe that hendry would be willing to go young at center or third, and if he does go young in center or third then he will have to, have to, upgrade at a corner of spot or second, and second base seems to be the easiest to fill(though maybe least efficient spot to upgrade between the three considering the corners as they stand). and as much as i dislike hendry's abilities as a general manager, i can't see a scenario where he lets ramirez just walk. now pierre he may not be albe to bring back, but if he leaves jim will probably(i know, i know) fill the void with someone like dave roberts, who will certainly be more productive if the centerfielder must leadoff.

 

as far as pie goes, i just don't see where he fits in to this club next year. murton should stay in left and jones is going to be hard to move without eating alot of contract, and it would be even more difficult to replace jones with pie, given how pie struggles when he first moves to a new level. with the lack of power in left, i just can't see jim jumping to put pie there. what could be an interesting move would be to move jones to center and bring in a one year rental in right(vernon wells?), and after next year see what happens. maybe the team is horrible again and jones gets moved at the deadline and pie gets his shot then?

 

all in all there are alot alot alot of moves, very strategic(sp) ones at that, to be made to bring this team to championship contender status. should the cubs be going after a ton of free agents this off season? probably not. is hendry going to go young and try to build anew? probably not. so again, if they are going to try to contend, pitching is what has to be solid. and it's going to be real real hard to rely on marshall and mateo every fifth day.

[Shilzzz]

i think it's more asinine to make yourself mediocre at both, which is all that would happen.

 

might as well make yourslef excellent at pitching, when many teams have been successfull doing just that.

 

I have no interest in mediocre at both, and there's no reason why you would be. You aren't guaranteeing excellent pitching, there's no such thing.

 

one can't guarantee excellent pitching anymore than one can guarantee excellent hitting.

[Magnetic Curses]

i think it's more asinine to make yourself mediocre at both, which is all that would happen.

 

might as well make yourslef excellent at pitching, when many teams have been successfull doing just that.

 

I have no interest in mediocre at both, and there's no reason why you would be. You aren't guaranteeing excellent pitching, there's no such thing.

 

if that's the case, what are we doing on a message board, speculating?