Baker: Lee would've won us 10-15 games on his own

[Banedon]

Would the Cubs' record have been drastically different this year had Derrek Lee not been injured? It depends on whom you ask.

 

"You can figure he'd make up 10, 12, 15 games by himself," Baker said. "Our offense would have been in a lot better situation. He's a Gold Glove, a Silver Bat. He'd have made a tremendous difference as well as some of the other guys we lost. Angel Pagan would have been our fourth outfielder. We really miss [Kerry] Wood and [Mark] Prior. You deal with what's at hand and who you have to work with right now."

 

Lee begs to differ.

 

"It's easy to pin the blame on that," Lee said of the Cubs' 18-40 record during his first DL stint. "The bottom line is we didn't play good baseball. Even if I was in there, if we don't play good baseball, we're not going to win. [The record] was more due to the way we played than the injury."

 

Of course he would've made the team better, but to say he would've won that many games on his own is really reaching. This last month is going to be just full of excuses, isn't it?

[Marco4]

At least Derrek's speaking a little bit of sense.

[abuck1220]

even if he would have made up that many games (and he wouldn't have), the team would still be a gigantic disappointment.

[AR-Baseball-Fan]

If Derrek was player/manager the record might have been 10-15 games better.

[C.C.]

Good god! I can't wait for Dusty to go! Stop making excuses! :x

[Mizzou]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

[cheapseats]

His WARP was 10.6 last year, so Lee added 10-11 wins above a replacement last year.

 

However, not many expected him to replicate his 2005. The PECOTA system projected him at 6.8 wins this season.

 

If Lee had given them an extra 7 wins this year, they'd still be at 61-70 and in 5th place in the NL Central. Instead of being the 2nd worst team in the NL, they'd be the 3rd worst.

 

Nice excuse, Dusty.

[CubColtPacer]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

 

I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good?

[BeerHere]

It's one excuse after another. When he's not making an excuse(injuries, rookies), he's setting one up for use later (racist mail). This man is a pathetic, old-school former player who refuses to take any responsibility for the teams poor fundamentals, baserunning gaffs, throwing to the wrong base, no-walk approach. He's gotta go and I believe Hendry sees it now. The season was over by June and I think Hendry realized it. Out of respect he's given him the rest of the season so he doesn't have to fire the man he hired.

[Rob]

His WARP was 10.6 last year, so Lee added 10-11 wins above a replacement last year.

 

However, not many expected him to replicate his 2005. The PECOTA system projected him at 6.8 wins this season.

 

If Lee had given them an extra 7 wins this year, they'd still be at 61-70 and in 5th place in the NL Central. Instead of being the 2nd worst team in the NL, they'd be the 3rd worst.

 

That's assuming we actually got replacement level production in his place. And since the primary beneficiary of the injury was Neifi, with Walker moving over to first base... it's quite possible we didn't get replacement level production from either position.

 

While I haven't looked at the numbers yet, I'd be quite surprised if the tandem proved to be above replacement level as a whole.

[Soul]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

 

I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good?

 

I also agree. And I found it quite strange when Lee went down that so many people flocked to this idea that it wouldn't mean anything. I remember there was some kind of statistical analysis, but come on. At some point common sense must prevail.

 

You don't just pull superstars off a team and say everything is the same. I'm sure someone can put together a stat sheet that shows the Cardinals would be just fine without Pujols, too.

 

That said, Dusty's excuses have become boring. Even if they're correct, nobody wants to hear them anymore. He needs to leave town worse than any Cub manager I can remember, including Lee Elia.

[C.C.]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

 

I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good?

 

I also agree. And I found it quite strange when Lee went down that so many people flocked to this idea that it wouldn't mean anything. I remember there was some kind of statistical analysis, but come on. At some point common sense must prevail.

 

You don't just pull superstars off a team and say everything is the same. I'm sure someone can put together a stat sheet that shows the Cardinals would be just fine without Pujols, too.

 

That said, Dusty's excuses have become boring. Even if they're correct, nobody wants to hear them anymore. He needs to leave town worse than any Cub manager I can remember, including Lee Elia.

 

He honestly should've been let go at the break. All this stuff is just making him look worse. It's a shame...If he just kept his mouth shut for the last 3 months, he could've walked away with dignity and class.

[Tracer Bullet]

His WARP was 10.6 last year, so Lee added 10-11 wins above a replacement last year.

 

However, not many expected him to replicate his 2005. The PECOTA system projected him at 6.8 wins this season.

 

If Lee had given them an extra 7 wins this year, they'd still be at 61-70 and in 5th place in the NL Central. Instead of being the 2nd worst team in the NL, they'd be the 3rd worst.

 

That's assuming we actually got replacement level production in his place. And since the primary beneficiary of the injury was Neifi, with Walker moving over to first base... it's quite possible we didn't get replacement level production from either position.

 

While I haven't looked at the numbers yet, I'd be quite surprised if the tandem proved to be above replacement level as a whole.

 

Two things:

 

1. If I'm not mistaken, those numbers are for the year. If Lee finishes the season, he will have played roughly 2 months total. So if over the year he's worth 7 games over a replacement, we lost about 4-5 games w/ a standard replacement for the 4 months he was out.

 

2. You have to give credit/blame where it's due. Yes, the loss of DLee = more Neifi and Mabry. But we could have used Walker and Theriot at 1b/2b or acted earlier to get a replacement level 1B. Even after we acquired Nevin, Dusty was still playing Mabry regularly at 1B. So whatever we lost above the 4-5 games calculated in 1, I credit to Dusty.

[Soul]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

 

I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good?

 

I also agree. And I found it quite strange when Lee went down that so many people flocked to this idea that it wouldn't mean anything. I remember there was some kind of statistical analysis, but come on. At some point common sense must prevail.

 

You don't just pull superstars off a team and say everything is the same. I'm sure someone can put together a stat sheet that shows the Cardinals would be just fine without Pujols, too.

 

That said, Dusty's excuses have become boring. Even if they're correct, nobody wants to hear them anymore. He needs to leave town worse than any Cub manager I can remember, including Lee Elia.

 

He honestly should've been let go at the break. All this stuff is just making him look worse. It's a shame...If he just kept his mouth shut for the last 3 months, he could've walked away with dignity and class.

 

Probably true. Honestly, I can't remember feeling less interest in the Cubs than I do right now. I haven't even been paying attention to Dusty's antics, because it was obvious in May that June, July, August, and September were just going to be more of the same.

 

Once the big losing streak came after Lee went down, and it became clear that Hendry would sit on his butt and do nothing ---- this season became a foregone conclusion.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's no way Lee is the difference in 10-15 games. If 2-3 is absurd, then 10-15 is even moreso.

[C.C.]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

 

I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good?

 

I also agree. And I found it quite strange when Lee went down that so many people flocked to this idea that it wouldn't mean anything. I remember there was some kind of statistical analysis, but come on. At some point common sense must prevail.

 

You don't just pull superstars off a team and say everything is the same. I'm sure someone can put together a stat sheet that shows the Cardinals would be just fine without Pujols, too.

 

That said, Dusty's excuses have become boring. Even if they're correct, nobody wants to hear them anymore. He needs to leave town worse than any Cub manager I can remember, including Lee Elia.

 

He honestly should've been let go at the break. All this stuff is just making him look worse. It's a shame...If he just kept his mouth shut for the last 3 months, he could've walked away with dignity and class.

 

Probably true. Honestly, I can't remember feeling less interest in the Cubs than I do right now. I haven't even been paying attention to Dusty's antics, because it was obvious in May that June, July, August, and September were just going to be more of the same.

 

Once the big losing streak came after Lee went down, and it became clear that Hendry would sit on his butt and do nothing ---- this season became a foregone conclusion.

 

I still watch or pay attention to every game. I can't help it! It's like watching a train wreck...I just can't look away! I watch the games now to watch the young starters...There really is nothing else...

[Guest]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

I believe that the comments on 2-3 wins was based on the initial estimate that he was only supposed to miss 6 weeks (or around 1/4 of the season). As others have posted, Lee was worth around 10 wins above a Neifi/Mabry level player last year. Divide that by 4 and you get 2-3 wins.

Edited August 29, 2006 by Tim

[Fred Hornkohl]

With Lee in the lineup, the CUBS are 16-17 and score 4.79 R/G. Without him, they are 38-60 and score 4.03 runs per game.

 

                   AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
CUBS w/Lee       1126  158  311   62   11   32  491  147   88  213  0.276  0.328  0.436  0.764
CUBS without     3354  395  878  158   24   99 1381  378  232  503  0.262  0.313  0.412  0.725

 

That difference of .76 R/G times the 98 games he's missed comes to 74.48 runs, or approximately 7 wins. What really killed the team when Lee was out is the fact that the pitching went into the tank as well.

 

                     IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
CUBS w/Lee        289.7  264  158  143  134  253   47  4.16  7.86  1.46  1.37  4.44
CUBS without      862.0  881  519  476  417  702  124  4.35  7.33  1.29  1.51  4.97

 

The CUBS' pitching went from 4.79 R/G to 5.30, accounting for another 50 runs, or approximately 5 wins.

 

Those 12 wins make the CUBS 66-65 on the season, and all of that plus $1.39 will buy you coffee down at the truckstop, no?

[soapy]

Seven wins sounds reasonable to me. Having said that, the Cubs would still be terrible with an extra 10 wins, so who cares.

[wastra]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

 

I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good?

 

That's Lee's point. It's not just that he was out, it's that the rest of the guys sucked living butt while he was out. Even with him in the game, if the team around him continued to suck living butt, we still lose. A lot.

[Lefty]

I think it's very possible that we would've won 10-15 more games with Lee in the lineup. Certainly a heck of a lot more than the 2-3 that some people were saying when he first went down. That was one of the most absurd things I had ever read.

 

I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good?

 

Well, Lee missed more time than we thought. Cub 1Bs, including Lee have hit .253./.337/.408 this year. Take out Walker's time at first and replace it with Perez' "production," gives us .247/.313/.406. That is about 4.3 runs per game. Lee at .290/.380/.550 is about 7.4 RPG. Cub 1Bs have used up about 14 games this year. So Lee would have been worth about mid 40s runs, or about 4 or 5 wins.

 

How does a bad team become good? By having many players contribute. Do you realize how much dead weight the Cubs are carrying (and playing)?

 

Cub starters besides Zambrano have a 5.84 ERA. The NL average is about 4.8. An average supporting cast for Zambrano would be worth another 6 or 7 games. Right there, a healthy Lee and average starters after Zambrano gets us to .500 and in the wild card race. I assume we'd still have Maddux and Walker making us look even better.

 

We would still have Pierre and Cedeno making outs at an alarming rate. We would still have underproductive corner outfielders. And with average starters after Zambrano, we would be wondering how golden we would be with a healthy Prior and Wood who we assume would be above average.

 

PECOTA projected the Cubs to win 85 games with Prior, Wood and Lee 115 runs above replacement. Given that when Prior pitched he was below replacement, and that the Cubs have gotten some pretty lousy performances from the rest of the replacements, a win total of about 70 makes sense.

[halplm]

Lee is worth more than just his production for one reason and one reason only. He would be automatically filled in the lineup card every day... taking one more decision out of the hands of Baker every day... that right there is worth 5-10 games... ;)

[cubweiser03]

At first when i read this article i was pissed. Then i read Lee's comments and did a complete 180 and became very happy. Lee totally contradicts what the manager is saying. Instead of buying Dusty's usual spin control he thumbs his nose at him. The last time Dlee said something negative about the teams performance Dusty came back with the 'no we showed up but we didnt come to play defense' bullcrap. This is at least the second time the best everyday player on the team and the manager are not on the same page.

[C.C.]

At first when i read this article i was pissed. Then i read Lee's comments and did a complete 180 and became very happy. Lee totally contradicts what the manager is saying. Instead of buying Dusty's usual spin control he thumbs his nose at him. The last time Dlee said something negative about the teams performance Dusty came back with the 'no we showed up but we didnt come to play defense' bullcrap. This is at least the second time the best everyday player on the team and the manager are not on the same page.

 

I was very happy with the Lee quote! It's good to see your team leader stepping up and setting the record straight.

[Banedon]

At first when i read this article i was pissed. Then i read Lee's comments and did a complete 180 and became very happy. Lee totally contradicts what the manager is saying. Instead of buying Dusty's usual spin control he thumbs his nose at him. The last time Dlee said something negative about the teams performance Dusty came back with the 'no we showed up but we didnt come to play defense' bullcrap. This is at least the second time the best everyday player on the team and the manager are not on the same page.

 

In the paper either yesterday or the day before, there was a quote where Lee put the fault of the season on the players, and said he'd like to have Dusty back.