The Soccer Thread

[USSoccer]

Bright side is Portugal need goals and will press to score and win.

 

 

Not good news at all, since their defense blows and Ghana will probably crush them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Bright side is Portugal need goals and will press to score and win.

 

 

Not good news at all, since their defense blows and Ghana will probably crush them.

 

 

Yeeeeeppp.

 

There's basically two choices:

 

1) Germany feels like not trying

2) Ghana crushes our hopes yet again.

[shnsajax]

Bright side is Portugal need goals and will press to score and win.

 

 

Not good news at all, since their defense blows and Ghana will probably crush them.

 

That's the other side. I know, it sucks. We can hang with and beat Germany.

 

Having Yedlin and Brooks play key roles in the WC is something I never thought would happen.

[Janelle-Alexis]

So what needs to happen for us to advance? Still a good chance for it to happen correct?

 

Hope I'm right about this, I'd appreciate any corrections.

 

USA wins = Group winner

USA draw = Group runner-up

USA loss + Ghana/Portugal draw = Group runner-up

 

 

If USA loses and Ghana win

------------------

Any result other than one goal win for Ghana and one goal loss for USA = Ghana advances on goal differencial.

 

 

If Ghana wins by one and USA loses by one, they tie in goal differencial:

 

Ghana doesn't outscore USA on Thursday = USA advances on total goals scored

Ghana outscores USA by 1 goal = They tie on goals scored and USA advances via head-to-head result

Ghana outscores USA by 2 goals or more on Thursday = Ghana advances on total goals scored.

 

 

If USA loses and Portugal wins

------------------

If Portugal margin of victory + USA margin of defeat is >5 (e.g. 3-0 Portugal win and 0-3 USA loss) = Portugal advances on goal differencial

If Portugal margin of victory + USA margin of defeat is <5 = USA advances

 

 

If Portugal margin of victory + USA margin of defeat equals 5 they tie in goal differencial:

 

Portugal outscores USA by 3 goals on Thursday = Portugal advances on total goals scored.

Portugal outscores USA by 2 goals = Drawing of lots (tied in points, goal differencial, goals scored, and head-to-head)

Portugal outscores USA by less than 2 goals = USA advances

[USSoccer]

Its one thing to expect Germany to play for a draw if its tied at the 60th, 65th minute. Its another to think they'll come out flat again, or play to a gentleman's draw.

 

Them coming out like garbage yesterday hurt, but blowing a win like we did tonight is a killer blow. Now they have an extra day of rest and didn't play in the Amazon. We're screwed, barring a draw between GHA and POR.

[Guest]

Maybe it's because I didn't see the 2nd half of Ghana/Germany, but I don't buy at all that they're sure to steamroll Portugal.

[USSoccer]

Maybe it's because I didn't see the 2nd half of Ghana/Germany, but I don't buy at all that they're sure to steamroll Portugal.

 

You need to see the second half. They were a lot better than Germany, and Portugal aren't that good.

 

The only thing there that might help is that Muntari is missing that game due to yellow card accumulation.

[Guest]

Maybe it's because I didn't see the 2nd half of Ghana/Germany, but I don't buy at all that they're sure to steamroll Portugal.

 

You need to see the second half. They were a lot better than Germany, and Portugal aren't that good.

 

The only thing there that might help is that Muntari is missing that game due to yellow card accumulation.

 

Maybe a more complete thought is that it seems pretty dissonant to both consider Germany sure to roll us and for Ghana to be sure to crush Portugal, especially with the respective stakes for each team. Individually I'd slightly favor Ghana and favor Germany by a little more, but we're a 75% favorite to advance for a reason too.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Germany's going to win it all. Podolski hasnt even played yet. He'll score 2 against the US. This [expletive] is over.

[CubInOK]

No idea what to do from now until Thursday morning. Go to work? Socialize? How?

 

wtf are we going to do thursday?!?!??!

I took the day off.

 

Me too.

I did too.

[UMFan83]

Has drawing of lots ever occurred in the World Cup before?

[Guest]

Jurgen knows how to cheer me up ever so slightly.

 

@KurtLarSUN Klinsmann asked about collusion with GER: "The US is known to give all they have in every single game, otherwise Mexico wouldn't be here."

[USSoccer]

Maybe it's because I didn't see the 2nd half of Ghana/Germany, but I don't buy at all that they're sure to steamroll Portugal.

 

You need to see the second half. They were a lot better than Germany, and Portugal aren't that good.

 

The only thing there that might help is that Muntari is missing that game due to yellow card accumulation.

 

Maybe a more complete thought is that it seems pretty dissonant to both consider Germany sure to roll us and for Ghana to be sure to crush Portugal, especially with the respective stakes for each team. Individually I'd slightly favor Ghana and favor Germany by a little more, but we're a 75% favorite to advance for a reason too.

 

I'm rating Germany to roll us because they have an extra day of rest, and they were better than us anyway, and I'd bet on some sort of hangover from the letdown tonight. Also, the fact that Jones, Bradley, Beckerman and Dempsey have played 716 of 720 minutes so far is bound to catch up at some point. The sensitivity over the 1982 debacle, and the desire to appear they aren't conspiring for a draw is going to turn into a 2-0, 3-1 loss.

 

I'm rating Ghana to beat Portugal because they have an extra day of rest, a better midfield, and Portugal still have no Coentrao, and a bad defense.

 

I don't trust 538's numbers as far as I can thrown them.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Can someone tell me why FIFA designed the tie-breaker system so that if Ghana and the US both earn four points and the US beat Ghana head-to-head, Ghana could still advance over the US? I mean this is a tournament, head-to-head results should be the first tiebreaker used in a two-way tie.

[Guest]

http://i.imgur.com/XL6zUIz.png

[brinoch]

That was pretty brutal. I don't even know why you pass the ball in to Bradley at that point. Put it out of bounds. Go to the corner. Sit with it on the sideline. Anywhere but the middle of the field. And Cameron had a terrible game, no doubt. It hurts to give up a goal in the 95th minute -- when there shouldn't have been that much stoppage time to begin with.

 

But let's look on the bright side, if any of were told that we'd be on 4 points at this point prior to the start of the World Cup, we'd all have been extremely happy. Yes, we should have won. But let's be honest, we were lucky to beat Ghana.

 

Looking ahead, I think we will hang with Germany. First, although we were a little lucky to defeat Ghana (and unlucky to not have defeated Portugal), Germany hasn't looked that awesome. Ghana was able to move in space and create chances. Plus, Germany has absolutely zero incentive to push forward too aggressively. Conservative play favors them because they win the group with a draw and still qualify against virtually any loss based on goal differential. Expect a defense-first approach by them. If we score, they'll push to equalize similar to what we saw from Portugal today. We'll get our opportunities to score, and our speed, properly deployed, can give them trouble -- see Ghana. But first and foremost, they want to win the group -- and they can win the group by simply holding down the fort and not getting outside of themselves.

 

BTW, I actually think Portugal looked far stronger today with a younger line-up than they did with their older "experienced" line-up. Frankly, I think they fell behind and melted down against Germany. They were much more composed today. Likewise, Ghana really need to win by more than 1 goal in order to really have a chance to advance -- this will open counterattacking opportunities for Portugal, which they are, in fact, good at. Ghana can be very vulnerable to the counter.

[Guest]

Can someone tell me why FIFA designed the tie-breaker system so that if Ghana and the US both earn four points and the US beat Ghana head-to-head, Ghana could still advance over the US? I mean this is a tournament, head-to-head results should be the first tiebreaker used in a two-way tie.

 

No idea but it's pretty stupid.

[Guest]

Last time I felt like this was 2003.

 

The pain would be lessened a bit it Croatia can win tomorrow, but I'm not holding out much hope.

 

The optimist in me says I should be happy with the 4 points. Not just because I'd have taken it without thinking twice before the tourney but because of the Ghana game. At the same time, expectations change and when you have 3 pounds in the bag and are 2-1 up going into the last minute, you expect to win. If we manage to get through, this game gets largely forgotten. If not, it will be like 2003.

[wvcbxl]

I'm rating Germany to roll us because they have an extra day of rest, and they were better than us anyway, and I'd bet on some sort of hangover from the letdown tonight.

 

Germany will play to win, period.

We'll see how it goes next Thursday - you can count on all of Belgium watching the early games closely. :wink:

[Guest]

Nate Silver has the most bogus combover I've ever seen. The multiple camera angles on World Cup Tonight's weird sitting in barcaloungers segment are not doing him favors.

 

You weren't lying. I fastforwarded just to see it.

 

Just embrace the baldness, Nate. It's not the end of the world.

[kujay]

Has drawing of lots ever occurred in the World Cup before?

 

Old article, but provides the answers ye seek:

 

http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/19/fifa-and-the-drawing-of-lots-a-brief-history/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

[USSoccer]

The more I think about it, the more I cannot understand why:

 

-Beckerman doesn't haul William down immediately

-Why is Beckerman there and not off to the left?

-Where is Jones?

-Why is CR7 in that much space late?

-Why are all 5 defenders on the field that far forward, to the point where you let a guy behind you?

 

I dunno. If they scored because someone outjumped one of the CB's, its a lot easier to take. But we played the stoppage time extremely naive, and paid a price for our lack of tactical nous and general lack of composure late.

[Exile on Waveland]

The more I think about it, the more I cannot understand why:

 

-Beckerman doesn't haul William down immediately

-Why is Beckerman there and not off to the left?

-Where is Jones?

-Why is CR7 in that much space late?

-Why are all 5 defenders on the field that far forward, to the point where you let a guy behind you?

 

I dunno. If they scored because someone outjumped one of the CB's, its a lot easier to take. But we played the stoppage time extremely naive, and paid a price for our lack of tactical nous and general lack of composure late.

 

Yeah, lot of questions. Like you said in a previous post (I think it was you, sorry, in a daze), the US lost on a counter when leading with less than a minute remaining in stoppage. The defensive line seemed too high, the midfielders certainly weren't all deep enough, the players were too casual with the ball when booting it to the corner would have been fine (this was true against Ghana too), Ronaldo was lost (and even worse, lost on DMB's side, who was absolutely gassed), and no professional foul either?

[Exile on Waveland]

Can someone tell me why FIFA designed the tie-breaker system so that if Ghana and the US both earn four points and the US beat Ghana head-to-head, Ghana could still advance over the US? I mean this is a tournament, head-to-head results should be the first tiebreaker used in a two-way tie.

 

No idea but it's pretty stupid.

 

Yes, very stupid. Using goal-differential makes sense, but having goals scored over head-to-head is dumb.

[Mark Priors Calves]

Germany tries to win because they'd rather play the 2nd place team in Group H. They've seen the US team scrap and get late goals. They won't play cautious for a possible tie with the Uas their opponent.