a day later....

[Handlebar McSkullet]

I think spending money next year on a frank cattalonatto + starting pitching would serve this team with what we now have

[1908]

I think he'll improve because he's only 26, has more talent that Neifi and had a VERY productive first half offensively a couple years ago pre-injury.

Some hitters make drastic leaps in production in their mid-to-late twenties, but it isn't very common. So it becomes an argument of possibility versus probability. Here's hoping your unlikely optimism holds true.

 

Let's say hypothetically he maintains where he is for his career...is that so bad for a 8 hole hitter?

Yes, it's atrocious.

[Ocu-Master]

 

Have him run the numbers and tell me who'll win the World Series the next 5 years. I'm planning a Vegas trip late in the year and could really use some cash.

 

Did Bill predict Bobby Abreu's power numbers falling off so dramatically? That information would have been nice before my fantasy draft.

 

 

You can point at any one player and say the PECOTA projectios were off, personally, I'll wait until the end of the season before daming the Abreu prediction but on the whole they are one of the better publicly available projections. These numbers are based on past performance, comparable players, age factors, etc.

 

What is your prediction based on?

[bring stone back]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projections from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

Have him run the numbers and tell me who'll win the World Series the next 5 years. I'm planning a Vegas trip late in the year and could really use some cash.

 

Did Bill predict Bobby Abreu's power numbers falling off so dramatically? That information would have been nice before my fantasy draft.

 

Well, if the projections are so off base, make yours and we'll see which come closer. PECOTA has its flaws, but comprehensively, it's been extremely reliable.

 

I can't in good faith argue with Tom Landry....

 

I'm making no bold predictions, but what I am saying IF we acquire a Grud or Loretta type player at 2B and in the 2 hole what is wrong with those numbers from your 8 hole hitter and a great shortstop?

 

Who's to say he can't have an Orlando Cabrera type of offensive resurgence?

[CubColtPacer]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projections from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

How would he get these numbers? That .245 slugging for example-the lowest slugging he has ever had in his career was .303-and that was when he was 22 and breaking into the league.

Somebody brought up the point of why people would think he would improve-the simple answer is that he has improved every year in his career until he got hurt. His OBP went from .253 to .282 to .330 in 3 years, and was at .387 the next year-and then he played hurt, and it dropped down to the .302 number. We can't be sure about this years numbers yet-he hasn't had enough at-bats. For example, his OBP jumped 6 points tonight-and if he goes 0 for 4 tomorrow, it could go down those 6 points just as fast. So now that he's coming back healthy from the surgery, we simply expect him to keep improving like he did every year right up to the injury. Is it a sure thing that he will do that? Of course not-but it is perfectly reasonable that a man who improved every single year from 22 years old till 25 will continue to improve now that he is healthy again.

[bring stone back]

I think he'll improve because he's only 26, has more talent that Neifi and had a VERY productive first half offensively a couple years ago pre-injury.

Some hitters make drastic leaps in production in their mid-to-late twenties, but it isn't very common. So it becomes an argument of possibility versus probability. Here's hoping your unlikely optimism holds true.

 

Let's say hypothetically he maintains where he is for his career...is that so bad for a 8 hole hitter?

Yes, it's atrocious.

 

My God then...let's get him out of baseball if that's the case.

[1908]

My God then...let's get him out of baseball if that's the case.

Better yet, let's all use hyperbole and strawmen to make our points. That would make for really fun discussions.

 

This is going nowhere constructive. Believe what you will.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projections from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

How would he get these numbers? That .245 slugging for example-the lowest slugging he has ever had in his career was .303-and that was when he was 22 and breaking into the league.

Somebody brought up the point of why people would think he would improve-the simple answer is that he has improved every year in his career until he got hurt. His OBP went from .253 to .282 to .330 in 3 years, and was at .387 the next year-and then he played hurt, and it dropped down to the .302 number. We can't be sure about this years numbers yet-he hasn't had enough at-bats. For example, his OBP jumped 6 points tonight-and if he goes 0 for 4 tomorrow, it could go down those 6 points just as fast. So now that he's coming back healthy from the surgery, we simply expect him to keep improving like he did every year right up to the injury. Is it a sure thing that he will do that? Of course not-but it is perfectly reasonable that a man who improved every single year from 22 years old till 25 will continue to improve now that he is healthy again.

 

One of the strengths of PECOTA is that it compares players to historical equivalents. Why you ask that there might be a dip in SLG% is a key point. Players career numbers aren't that consistent. Players have gains and losses over the course of individual seasons. In fact, it is highly unrealistic to assume he will put up gains in every subsequent season without having a dip somewhere.

[bring stone back]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projections from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

How would he get these numbers? That .245 slugging for example-the lowest slugging he has ever had in his career was .303-and that was when he was 22 and breaking into the league.

Somebody brought up the point of why people would think he would improve-the simple answer is that he has improved every year in his career until he got hurt. His OBP went from .253 to .282 to .330 in 3 years, and was at .387 the next year-and then he played hurt, and it dropped down to the .302 number. We can't be sure about this years numbers yet-he hasn't had enough at-bats. For example, his OBP jumped 6 points tonight-and if he goes 0 for 4 tomorrow, it could go down those 6 points just as fast. So now that he's coming back healthy from the surgery, we simply expect him to keep improving like he did every year right up to the injury. Is it a sure thing that he will do that? Of course not-but it is perfectly reasonable that a man who improved every single year from 22 years old till 25 will continue to improve now that he is healthy again.

 

I think arguing a more optimistic point of view or taking a let's give this guy a chance vantage point is pointless.

[Ocu-Master]

If that's the direction we're going, let me put my flame retardant suit on.

 

Also, for the non-calculator inclined, there are stats other than VORP quoted in that projection. (perhaps you've head of a calculation called batting average)

 

I don't need stats, buddy, I watch the PLAYERS.

 

Who says I don't watch the players too? Lose the attitude, I'm just adding info to the conversation. The fact that you watch the players doesn't invalidate the science of statistics.

[Ocu-Master]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projections from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

How would he get these numbers? That .245 slugging for example-the lowest slugging he has ever had in his career was .303-and that was when he was 22 and breaking into the league.

Somebody brought up the point of why people would think he would improve-the simple answer is that he has improved every year in his career until he got hurt. His OBP went from .253 to .282 to .330 in 3 years, and was at .387 the next year-and then he played hurt, and it dropped down to the .302 number. We can't be sure about this years numbers yet-he hasn't had enough at-bats. For example, his OBP jumped 6 points tonight-and if he goes 0 for 4 tomorrow, it could go down those 6 points just as fast. So now that he's coming back healthy from the surgery, we simply expect him to keep improving like he did every year right up to the injury. Is it a sure thing that he will do that? Of course not-but it is perfectly reasonable that a man who improved every single year from 22 years old till 25 will continue to improve now that he is healthy again.

 

I think arguing a more optimistic point of view or taking a let's give this guy a chance vantage point is pointless.

 

bah, the .245 is a typo, fixed in the original post in 3...2...1...

[Geech]

Who says I don't watch the players too? Lose the attitude, I'm just adding info to the conversation. The fact that you watch the players doesn't invalidate the science of statistics.

 

I'm not serious. I have a BP subscription myself.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well dammit, Steve Stone said we should have traded for him, and by golly if Stone said it, it must be gospel.

 

Stone is clarivoyant you know. If this pitcher can throw a slider that catches the inside corner and dives into the dirt, he should get a strike out here....

[bring stone back]

My God then...let's get him out of baseball if that's the case.

Better yet, let's all use hyperbole and straw men to make our points. That would make for really fun discussions.

 

This is going nowhere constructive. Believe what you will.

 

okay....he's played one game in a Cubs uniform, is only 26 with room to improve yet he's atrocious. Okay...you're right.

[Ocu-Master]

Who says I don't watch the players too? Lose the attitude, I'm just adding info to the conversation. The fact that you watch the players doesn't invalidate the science of statistics.

 

I'm not serious. I have a BP subscription myself.

 

lol, had me fooled ;)

[1908]

My God then...let's get him out of baseball if that's the case.

Better yet, let's all use hyperbole and straw men to make our points. That would make for really fun discussions.

 

This is going nowhere constructive. Believe what you will.

 

okay....he's played one game in a Cubs uniform, is only 26 with room to improve yet he's atrocious. Okay...you're right.

Yet another straw man. Awesome. G'night.

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

Cubs fans are funny!

[Ocu-Master]

My God then...let's get him out of baseball if that's the case.

Better yet, let's all use hyperbole and straw men to make our points. That would make for really fun discussions.

 

This is going nowhere constructive. Believe what you will.

 

okay....he's played one game in a Cubs uniform, is only 26 with room to improve yet he's atrocious. Okay...you're right.

 

Well you're leaving out a lot of other information we have about him, such as his past performance at the plate. You're certainly welcome to your opinion that he will improve. I hope he does, but with the available information, I (and others) don't feel he's going to be that beneficial to the team.

[bring stone back]

My God then...let's get him out of baseball if that's the case.

Better yet, let's all use hyperbole and straw men to make our points. That would make for really fun discussions.

 

This is going nowhere constructive. Believe what you will.

 

okay....he's played one game in a Cubs uniform, is only 26 with room to improve yet he's atrocious. Okay...you're right.

Yet another straw man. Awesome. G'night.

 

What do you want me to say? He's young with room to improve yet you deem him atrocious offensively and that's all there is to it, right?

[bring stone back]

My God then...let's get him out of baseball if that's the case.

Better yet, let's all use hyperbole and straw men to make our points. That would make for really fun discussions.

 

This is going nowhere constructive. Believe what you will.

 

okay....he's played one game in a Cubs uniform, is only 26 with room to improve yet he's atrocious. Okay...you're right.

 

Well you're leaving out a lot of other information we have about him, such as his past performance at the plate. You're certainly welcome to your opinion that he will improve. I hope he does, but with the available information, I (and others) don't feel he's going to be that beneficial to the team.

 

Defense doesn't count? Being arguably the best at his position in the game should count for something.

[Ocu-Master]

 

What do you want me to say? He's young with room to improve yet you deem him atrocious offensively and that's all there is to it, right?

 

We want you to stop writing writing loaded sentences like the one quoted above.

[bring stone back]

 

What do you want me to say? He's young with room to improve yet you deem him atrocious offensively and that's all there is to it, right?

 

We want you to stop writing writing loaded sentences like the one quoted above.

 

Tell me what to say so I can jump on board with this "Cubs suck, Hendry sucks, everyone sucks" bandwagon.

 

What I said above may have been loaded, but in response to 1908 it was absolutely right.

Edited August 2, 2006 by bring stone back

[bhogg]

Many things can be argued, however, it is pure fact that the Cubs suck.

 

The only thing that can be argued is the level of suckiness which they reach.

[Ocu-Master]

My God then...let's get him out of baseball if that's the case.

Better yet, let's all use hyperbole and straw men to make our points. That would make for really fun discussions.

 

This is going nowhere constructive. Believe what you will.

 

okay....he's played one game in a Cubs uniform, is only 26 with room to improve yet he's atrocious. Okay...you're right.

 

Well you're leaving out a lot of other information we have about him, such as his past performance at the plate. You're certainly welcome to your opinion that he will improve. I hope he does, but with the available information, I (and others) don't feel he's going to be that beneficial to the team.

 

Defense doesn't count? Being arguably the best at his position in the game should count for something.

 

Defense certainly counts, which is probably why he's got a less bad WARP (wins above replacement level) projection, my guess would be that its value in the Cubs lineup won't go as far in the wins column as having better hiting, but that's my opinion at this point.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I skipped a few pages, so pardon me if this was pointed out somewhere.

 

Izturis is horrible offensively. DEFENSE WAS NOT THIS TEAM'S PROBLEM.