a day later....

[bring stone back]

(I laugh when I hear fans say look at our payroll and how bad we are YET say we can't depend on Wood and Prior anymore. Fine, if that's the case, then don't give me the payroll argument. The two of them are getting maybe $18 million this year mostly on the DL. It's one or the other).

 

I don't get the link you're making between the 2 at all.

 

What I'm saying is I'm sick of people that say "we can't rely on Wood or Prior at all" like they're not even part of the team and if they become the 4th or 5th starters...great.

 

All while Prior and Wood account for roughly $18 million this year. How can you complain about our high payroll and lack of success when 20% of the payroll is always on the DL? You can be sure if I were the GM and I had $13 million wrapped up in one player I'd damn well be counting on him...how can you not be counting on these two when they acouunt for so much of your payroll?

 

Our team's success is largely dependant on them. We can't look at these two as afterthoughts. They either have to produce like front-line starters or get rid of both of them.

 

That has nothing to do with anything in this thread. Most people would agree that having 2 pitchers like that hurt all the time is a major handicap, but what most also say is that in order to not rely on the pitching staff, you need a consistent offense. That's what people mean when they say that Hendry is stupid for putting all his eggs in the pitching staff. You have to have balance.

 

I'm responding to a question from another poster about a comment I made before so you'll have to direct the relevance to him...not me.

 

I do think we have balance. Pierre didn't produce early and Lee went down and it killed our offense. We have Barrett, Lee, Ramirez and Jones...I'd take that quartet over a LOT of 3-6 in the NL. What has killed us this year is Ramirez and Pierre's slow starts and the black hole that is left field. Murton should not be starting in the major leagues.

Edited August 2, 2006 by bring stone back

[bring stone back]

(I laugh when I hear fans say look at our payroll and how bad we are YET say we can't depend on Wood and Prior anymore. Fine, if that's the case, then don't give me the payroll argument. The two of them are getting maybe $18 million this year mostly on the DL. It's one or the other).

 

I don't get the link you're making between the 2 at all.

 

What I'm saying is I'm sick of people that say "we can't rely on Wood or Prior at all" like they're not even part of the team and if they become the 4th or 5th starters...great.

 

All while Prior and Wood account for roughly $18 million this year. How can you complain about our high payroll and lack of success when 20% of the payroll is always on the DL? You can be sure if I were the GM and I had $13 million wrapped up in one player I'd damn well be counting on him...how can you not be counting on these two when they acouunt for so much of your payroll?

 

Our team's success is largely dependant on them. We can't look at these two as afterthoughts. They either have to produce like front-line starters or get rid of both of them.

 

That has nothing to do with anything in this thread. Most people would agree that having 2 pitchers like that hurt all the time is a major handicap, but what most also say is that in order to not rely on the pitching staff, you need a consistent offense. That's what people mean when they say that Hendry is stupid for putting all his eggs in the pitching staff. You have to have balance.

 

I'll tie this all back into the Izturis subject, though: Having him on this team and planning on starting him and Cedeno in the middle IF means you have 2 positions where you will be below average offensively. That hurts your offense, which puts more pressure on the pitching staff that's always hurt.

 

Who's to say Cedeno will definitely start at 2B next year? He'll play out the string this year but I am all for getting someone else and improving there. (I feel we kept the wrong 2B a couple years ago and should have kept Grud over Walker but that's just me).

[bring stone back]

Saying he is a young neifi is nothing but blind hatred.

OPS+ per season over first 4 years of career.

 

Neifi

85

70

61

66

 

Cesar

52

61

88

68

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

[1908]

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

I could make an educated guess based on his career production to date. What would you use to make your guess?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Saying he is a young neifi is nothing but blind hatred.

OPS+ per season over first 4 years of career.

 

Neifi

85

70

61

66

 

Cesar

52

61

88

68

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

No one can say with certainty, but based on his track record, he'll be a below average hitter.

[Salazar89]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

Offers their two cents on the Izturis addition......................

 

Tradition had its disadvantages

[Geech]

Rusch and Neifi are overpaid...yes. I feel that Jacque Jones is a good player and is producing this year. We may have paid a little over market value, but he's been one of our most consistent weapons offensively this year and has played well in right field.

 

Don't throw Jacque in with those two...

 

Jacque's production has been mediocre for a corner outfielder, and this has actually been one of his better years so far. Given the length and dollars of the contract, it sure looks like another case of Jim Hendry overpaying for mediocrity...

 

Which is precisely what the Cobs are risking with Izturis. He's never even had an average offensive season, and as much as his defense is lauded he won't be a good player without some very substantial improvements at the plate. While those improvements might come, the Cobs already have substantial dollars tied up in him next year. If they end up starting Cedeno at second with Izturis at short, then the only room for improvement is left field in a very weak free agent class.

 

In short, this move is the precurser to another year of offensive futility.

[bhogg]

This trade will look better depending upon how things fall in the off season.

 

I can't imagine that we'll see the cubs stick with the same team we see now.

 

Who's to say Izturis will not be moved? Cedeno now becomse expendable.

 

A full year of ARam, Lee, Prior, and Z will do wonders for our record. If Hendry can sign a power bat in the OF and a top notch pitcher, things could be really good next year.

 

 

There are sooooo many things that can (and will) happen over the next 4 months. It's going to be fun to watch it all unfold.

 

 

 

 

As for why some fans care so much about salary --- Salary is a necessary evil when talking about a teams' players and possibilites for getting players.

[bring stone back]

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

I could make an educated guess based on his career production to date. What would you use to make your guess?

 

So what you're saying is once you turn 26 years old, that's your peak offensively? No player has ever improved? Damn...

 

Let's get a legitimate starting outfielder in left, a Loretta or Grud type at 2B next year and put Izturis in the 8 hole. I'm very comfortable having the best defensive shortstop in baseball being a below average hitter at #8.

[CUBZ99]

Saying he is a young neifi is nothing but blind hatred.

OPS+ per season over first 4 years of career.

 

Neifi

85

70

61

66

 

Cesar

52

61

88

68

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

No one can say with certainty, but based on his track record, he'll be a below average hitter.

 

If we are willing to give Cedeno a chance, there is no reason that Izturis doesn't deserve a chance. Tonight he looked pretty sharp at the plate. I know that it is only one night, but he appears to be healthy and his swing is nothing like Neifi's (in fact he seemed to be a fairly patient hitter). He is only 26 so lets give the guy a chance and see what he can do.

[1908]

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

I could make an educated guess based on his career production to date. What would you use to make your guess?

So what you're saying is once you turn 26 years old, that's your peak offensively? No player has ever improved? Damn...

Nice straw man. I didn't say that at all. Why do you think Izturis will improve? How much do you think he will improve?

[bhogg]

I'd love to see someonw like Loretta at 2b. He seems like he'd be a good #2 hitter.

 

 

Finding someone to hit second could really set the lineup for the cubs --- it allows guys like Barrett and Jones to hit in more realistic spots (6th and 7th) --- assuming a big bat is picked up in LF. If not, we'll have to hope the new manager sees murton as a possible #2 hitter.

 

Regardless, I really don't want to see Izturis hitting 2nd.

[bring stone back]

This trade will look better depending upon how things fall in the off season.

 

I can't imagine that we'll see the cubs stick with the same team we see now.

 

Who's to say Izturis will not be moved? Cedeno now becomse expendable.

 

A full year of ARam, Lee, Prior, and Z will do wonders for our record. If Hendry can sign a power bat in the OF and a top notch pitcher, things could be really good next year.

 

 

There are sooooo many things that can (and will) happen over the next 4 months. It's going to be fun to watch it all unfold.

 

 

 

 

As for why some fans care so much about salary --- Salary is a necessary evil when talking about a teams' players and possibilites for getting players.

 

Well said....agree 100%.

[Ocu-Master]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projections from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .345 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

Edited August 2, 2006 by Ocu-Master

[bhogg]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projectsion from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

 

 

Bill Pecota doesn't know what he's talking about. . . . .

 

 

 

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/bill_pecota_autograph.jpg

[bring stone back]

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

I could make an educated guess based on his career production to date. What would you use to make your guess?

So what you're saying is once you turn 26 years old, that's your peak offensively? No player has ever improved? Damn...

Nice straw man. I didn't say that at all. Why do you think Izturis will improve? How much do you think he will improve?

 

I think he'll improve because he's only 26, has more talent that Neifi and had a VERY productive first half offensively a couple years ago pre-injury.

 

Let's say hypothetically he maintains where he is for his career...is that so bad for a 8 hole hitter? The key is getting rid of Cedeno in the offseason for a Loretta or Grud type 2B next year.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projectsion from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

That's an understatement.

[Geech]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projectsion from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

Oh, VORP this and VORP that. We need to get all that calculator crap out of baseball.

[Ocu-Master]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projectsion from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

 

 

Bill Pecota doesn't know what he's talking about. . . . .

 

 

 

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/bill_pecota_autograph.jpg

 

but look at his intagibles! He's got special dice that he uses to determine those numbers

[bring stone back]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projections from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

Have him run the numbers and tell me who'll win the World Series the next 5 years. I'm planning a Vegas trip late in the year and could really use some cash.

 

Did Bill predict Bobby Abreu's power numbers falling off so dramatically? That information would have been nice before my fantasy draft.

[bhogg]

i wonder what Bill Pecota's PECOTA prjections were?

[Ocu-Master]

Oh, VORP this and VORP that. We need to get all that calculator crap out of baseball.

 

If that's the direction we're going, let me put my flame retardant suit on.

 

Also, for the non-calculator inclined, there are stats other than VORP quoted in that projection. (perhaps you've head of a calculation called batting average)

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about...

 

Five year PECOTA projections from BP:

 

 
Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP
2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3
2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3
2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8
2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9
2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0

 

Doesn't look good.

 

Have him run the numbers and tell me who'll win the World Series the next 5 years. I'm planning a Vegas trip late in the year and could really use some cash.

 

Did Bill predict Bobby Abreu's power numbers falling off so dramatically? That information would have been nice before my fantasy draft.

 

Well, if the projections are so off base, make yours and we'll see which come closer. PECOTA has its flaws, but comprehensively, it's been extremely reliable.

[bring stone back]

i wonder what Bill Pecota's PECOTA prjections were?

 

first time I actually laughed out loud here....well done I say.

[Geech]

If that's the direction we're going, let me put my flame retardant suit on.

 

Also, for the non-calculator inclined, there are stats other than VORP quoted in that projection. (perhaps you've head of a calculation called batting average)

 

I don't need stats, buddy, I watch the PLAYERS.