Z's walks and pitch counts

[dvdd127]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

[illiniguy]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

[WrigleyField 22]

With Big Z I dont worry about the walks as much as I worry about the pitch counts... and I dont really worry much about the pitch counts either.. and Zambrano is not a cry baby about a little bit of pain like Prior is.

 

Why do some people assume Prior is just a big wuss and cant take pain? Did I miss the quote from any reliable source that said his injuries were overblown by him? Also sometimes a coach forces the issues and takes caution with a players pain.

[WrigleyField 22]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

 

It would be classic Dusty to push the blame off on anyone else besides himself.

[dvdd127]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

 

It would be classic Dusty to push the blame off on anyone else besides himself.

Dude.. some of his injuries are things he should have been able to pitch through.. I'll admit that all of them are not things he should have been able to pitch through.... but some of them definately are.

[dvdd127]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

 

It would be classic Dusty to push the blame off on anyone else besides himself.

No this is facts... Wood has had back problems since he is a kid... and needs to find a different occupation.

[soccer10k]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

 

Yup, Dusty caused Kerry to have to undergo Tommy John surgery after the 1998 season.

 

Also, you claim Kerry wasn't ruined in 2003 yet claim he was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. But I believe Johnnie B Baker was the Cubs manager in 2003. So you are, in essence, contradicting yourself.

[illiniguy]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

 

Yup, Dusty caused Kerry to have to undergo Tommy John surgery after the 1998 season.

 

Also, you claim Kerry wasn't ruined in 2003 yet claim he was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. But I believe Johnnie B Baker was the Cubs manager in 2003. So you are, in essence, contradicting yourself.

Well in 2003 Woody was great, but by being as abused as he was a lot of people point to that season as the beginning of the end of both he and Prior. In '98 it wasn't Dusty's fault, but a lot of pitchers come back from one arm surgery. Reguardless of all of this though it should be clear to everyone that Dusty is doing the same thing with Z now that he did with both of these guys before they were always hurt and I think it is scary that upper management allows it.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

This was posted on a cardinals msg board about a month ago when discussing the Mulder trade,I thought you guys might find this part interesting:

 

Yep, it's my opinion on Big Z as well. Back in the day, I used to post "Big Z Over/Under" threads on that other forum. Although I freely admit that there is definitely significant variability and some pitchers legitimately can "take it," my solid expectation is that Big Z will be a pretty different pitcher starting around the age of 26 or so.

 

In fact, although this season it is probably too early to draw any meaningful conclusions, we MIGHT already be seeing signs of it now. Overall, he looks like he is having a good year -- striking out more than a batter per inning, less than a hit per inning, ERA of about 3.30, etc -- right?

 

Well, check this out:

OPS-against from 2002 to now: 688, 653, 648, 629 -- and 735.

GB:FB rates from 2002 to now: 2.10, 2.28, 1.64, 1.62 -- and 1.35.

HR/9ip: .38, .60, .85-- and .95.

Fielding Independent Pitching: 3.63, 3.72, 3.88 -- and 4.40.

BB/9ip: 3.95, 3.48, 3.47 -- and now 5.56.

 

Is he suffering a loss of control and command? Are batters finding it easier to get the ball in the air against him? Do his peripherals suggest that he is less effective, and suggest that if he pitches exactly the way he is now, he'll get much worse results going forward? YES, to all of the above. I wouldn't say that he'll keep going this way -- YET -- because it is too early in the year to assume that this is a "trend" that can be used to make projections or predictions. But Steverino's Axiom of Young Pitcher Workloads would expect that by the end of the year, we'll be saying yes to all of the above.

 

Actually, this is one of the things about the Mulder trade that I never liked, from the first rumor to when the trade was announced. He was a pitcher with a lot of major league innings and pitches at a young age, and we acquired him right at the age where we typically start to see the toll of that. No doubt some pitchers do bounce back from the Workload Doldrums -- but most do not, and why take the risk???

 

 

 

Why do injuries go UP after age 24? Doesn't that disprove my theory? Actually, no. It fits.

 

Obviously there are many reasons, based on the individuals and the injuries. But the fact that injuries go up after age 24 is completely consistent with my theory. The overwork at a young age increases the risk of injuries and loss of effectiveness later. Note that all along I've said things like "Zambrano may well be a different pitcher starting around his age 26 season" and "the reason I didn't like the Mulder trade, among others, was that he was at the age where the toll often starts to catch up, and there were disturbing signs that he fit the profile."

 

Why 90 pitches? Why age 22 or 25 or what-have-you? Because I've seen data that helped me arrive at those numbers.

 

I'm not gonna suggest that it is EXACTLY these ages or PRECISELY those pitch counts for ALL YOUNG PLAYERS. There are exceptions. Maybe Zambrano ends up being someone who can "take it." Maybe Clemens is (although if my memory serves -- Clemens had leg problems til he was about 23, and didn't pitch more than 135 innings until 1986 -- turning 24 during that season -- meaning he really was not worked all that hard at ages 21-22-23).

 

But by the by, for every example of a pitcher who piled up pitches before age 25 and stayed durable and effective, I can show you ones who did not. Gooden, Fernando, Koufax --

 

PM me if you want the link. :wink:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This was posted on a cardinals msg board about a month ago when discussing the Mulder trade,I thought you guys might find this part interesting:

 

Yep, it's my opinion on Big Z as well. Back in the day, I used to post "Big Z Over/Under" threads on that other forum. Although I freely admit that there is definitely significant variability and some pitchers legitimately can "take it," my solid expectation is that Big Z will be a pretty different pitcher starting around the age of 26 or so.

 

In fact, although this season it is probably too early to draw any meaningful conclusions, we MIGHT already be seeing signs of it now. Overall, he looks like he is having a good year -- striking out more than a batter per inning, less than a hit per inning, ERA of about 3.30, etc -- right?

 

Well, check this out:

OPS-against from 2002 to now: 688, 653, 648, 629 -- and 735.

GB:FB rates from 2002 to now: 2.10, 2.28, 1.64, 1.62 -- and 1.35.

HR/9ip: .38, .60, .85-- and .95.

Fielding Independent Pitching: 3.63, 3.72, 3.88 -- and 4.40.

BB/9ip: 3.95, 3.48, 3.47 -- and now 5.56.

 

 

Those numbers are skewed by Z's April where he walked a ton of guys, which is the same reason his FIP and BB/9 are higher. His OPS against is already down below 650. And while his GB:FB rates are going up, so are his K rates.

 

That said, Z's workload is a huge cause for concern.

[stitchface]

I wonder if hitters are laying off more pitches since they can't hit them? Also he seems to throw that slider more this year. He reminds me of Kevin Brown - not a good thing.

[badger1679666666]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

 

Yup, Dusty caused Kerry to have to undergo Tommy John surgery after the 1998 season.

 

Also, you claim Kerry wasn't ruined in 2003 yet claim he was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. But I believe Johnnie B Baker was the Cubs manager in 2003. So you are, in essence, contradicting yourself.

 

Not sure but isn't Tommy John surgery on the ELBOW, and his current problems with his SHOULDER. (and yes I am sure it was sarcasm). And don't give me overcompensation crap, he was healthy for 3 years in 2001-2003. If he was overcompensating I doubt it would have taken 3 years to catch up with him with the way he throws.

 

Dusty ruined both of them, plain and simple. He was ruined in 2003, the effects took place after that season.

[CubColtPacer]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

 

Yup, Dusty caused Kerry to have to undergo Tommy John surgery after the 1998 season.

 

Also, you claim Kerry wasn't ruined in 2003 yet claim he was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. But I believe Johnnie B Baker was the Cubs manager in 2003. So you are, in essence, contradicting yourself.

 

Not sure but isn't Tommy John surgery on the ELBOW, and his current problems with his SHOULDER. (and yes I am sure it was sarcasm). And don't give me overcompensation crap, he was healthy for 3 years in 2001-2003. If he was overcompensating I doubt it would have taken 3 years to catch up with him with the way he throws.

 

Dusty ruined both of them, plain and simple. He was ruined in 2003, the effects took place after that season.

 

What about 2002? He threw 2 more innings in 1 more game then-now, I know he didn't throw quite as many pitches in 2002-but if 2003 completely destroyed his arm, is it possible that 2002 started him down the road towards that?

[dvdd127]

Dusty ruined Wood and Prior by using them heavily in 2003. They were 1-2 in pitches thrown that year, and Prior was like 240 behind Wood, despite missing 3 starts. And why the hell did he let Prior throw 120 pitches with a 10-run lead in game 2 of the NLCS??

no need to dwell on the past..and personally I think Wood was ruined before he got to the majors because of his back issues he had as a kid.. as for Prior.. as I said in the other thread... I think he will return to form next year.

That is just irresponsible. Wood wasn't ruined in 98 or 01,02,03. He was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. Plain and simple.

 

Yup, Dusty caused Kerry to have to undergo Tommy John surgery after the 1998 season.

 

Also, you claim Kerry wasn't ruined in 2003 yet claim he was ruined by Johnnie B Baker. But I believe Johnnie B Baker was the Cubs manager in 2003. So you are, in essence, contradicting yourself.

WTF, Baker was not even here in 98... and also, I didnt claim he wasnt ruined in 2003... he was. he just had a lucky year where nothing was bothering him... oh and I will go out on a limb and say that right now.. all the talk about his shoulder is a cover up.. and the truth is.. its his back thats hurting him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

With Big Z I dont worry about the walks as much as I worry about the pitch counts... and I dont really worry much about the pitch counts either.. and Zambrano is not a cry baby about a little bit of pain like Prior is.

 

Why do some people assume Prior is just a big wuss and cant take pain? Did I miss the quote from any reliable source that said his injuries were overblown by him? Also sometimes a coach forces the issues and takes caution with a players pain.

 

Prior sure was a wuss going back out there to pitch after colliding with Giles in 03.

 

And he sure was a wuss for returning quicker than expected from the line drive on the elbow.

[dvdd127]

With Big Z I dont worry about the walks as much as I worry about the pitch counts... and I dont really worry much about the pitch counts either.. and Zambrano is not a cry baby about a little bit of pain like Prior is.

 

Why do some people assume Prior is just a big wuss and cant take pain? Did I miss the quote from any reliable source that said his injuries were overblown by him? Also sometimes a coach forces the issues and takes caution with a players pain.

 

Prior sure was a wuss going back out there to pitch after colliding with Giles in 03.

 

And he sure was a wuss for returning quicker than expected from the line drive on the elbow.

If I recall correctly he missed his next start or was taken out of that game after the collision..

[CaliforniaRaisin]

With Big Z I dont worry about the walks as much as I worry about the pitch counts... and I dont really worry much about the pitch counts either.. and Zambrano is not a cry baby about a little bit of pain like Prior is.

 

Why do some people assume Prior is just a big wuss and cant take pain? Did I miss the quote from any reliable source that said his injuries were overblown by him? Also sometimes a coach forces the issues and takes caution with a players pain.

 

Prior sure was a wuss going back out there to pitch after colliding with Giles in 03.

 

And he sure was a wuss for returning quicker than expected from the line drive on the elbow.

If I recall correctly he missed his next start or was taken out of that game after the collision..

 

He missed 4 starts with a pretty serious shoulder injury. But he actually went out right after the collision/injury and pitched. I think that's the opposite of being a wuss, but that's obviously just me.

[Crash]

With Big Z I dont worry about the walks as much as I worry about the pitch counts... and I dont really worry much about the pitch counts either.. and Zambrano is not a cry baby about a little bit of pain like Prior is.

 

Why do some people assume Prior is just a big wuss and cant take pain? Did I miss the quote from any reliable source that said his injuries were overblown by him? Also sometimes a coach forces the issues and takes caution with a players pain.

 

Prior sure was a wuss going back out there to pitch after colliding with Giles in 03.

 

And he sure was a wuss for returning quicker than expected from the line drive on the elbow.

If I recall correctly he missed his next start or was taken out of that game after the collision..

 

Acctually in an incredibly foolish move by Baker and the Cubs they let Prior go out and pitch several innings after the the collision with Giles and then only later in the game took him out.

[dvdd127]

Prior sure was a wuss going back out there to pitch after colliding with Giles in 03.

 

And he sure was a wuss for returning quicker than expected from the line drive on the elbow.

If I recall correctly he missed his next start or was taken out of that game after the collision..

 

Acctually in an incredibly foolish move by Baker and the Cubs they let Prior go out and pitch several innings after the the collision with Giles and then only later in the game took him out.

and then he missed his next start right?

[dvdd127]

In 2003, he finished third in the National League's Cy Young Award voting after compiling an 18-6 won-loss record despite missing significant time after an on-field collision with Atlanta Braves second baseman Marcus Giles. Due to the collision, both Prior and Giles were forced to miss the 2003 All-Star Game, to which they had been selected to perform in.

yes.. he missed time after the collision

[scs_paradise]

In 2003, he finished third in the National League's Cy Young Award voting after compiling an 18-6 won-loss record despite missing significant time after an on-field collision with Atlanta Braves second baseman Marcus Giles. Due to the collision, both Prior and Giles were forced to miss the 2003 All-Star Game, to which they had been selected to perform in.

yes.. he missed time after the collision

 

?

 

that's your evidence that he is a wuss? Dude try again dude.