Barrett batting second

[UK1679666180]

Like I said that's not top to btm, you're talking about half to two-thirds. If you don't have a complete line-up of guys who get on base then you have to place those who do in an optimal position.

 

I think line-ups of all OBPs are rare and you'd need the payroll to put forth that type of luxury (SS, CF, and Cs with the ability to get on base and not be a liability defensively) will be expensive. Then, you need the organization to take a hard-line stance towards building a team with OBP as its primary goal and willing to overspend to do it.

[mul21]

 

Yeah, and if you throw out a couple of 1 game wonders in Theriot and Barrett, he's also been our best option in the number 2 slot. :wink:

 

04/03 - 07/18      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
Theriot             4    2    2    1    1    0    5    0    1    0  0.500  0.600  1.250  1.850
Barrett             4    1    2    1    0    0    3    1    0    1  0.500  0.500  0.750  1.250
Perez              54    6   18    4    0    0   22    4    1    4  0.333  0.339  0.407  0.747
Walker            109   14   30    6    1    2   44   10    8   14  0.275  0.319  0.404  0.723
Murton             12    1    3    0    0    0    3    0    1    4  0.250  0.308  0.250  0.558
Cedeno             97    6   25    1    2    1   33    5    2   20  0.258  0.273  0.340  0.613
Hairston           27    4    5    1    0    0    6    0    0    6  0.185  0.185  0.222  0.407
Pierre             13    2    2    0    0    0    2    0    0    2  0.154  0.154  0.154  0.308
Bynum              13    1    2    0    0    0    2    0    0    2  0.154  0.154  0.154  0.308
Pagan               4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000

 

Does anyone actually believe that where a player hits in the batting order has a major affect on how they hit?

 

Absolutely. Look at Renteria's numbers in the 2 spot vs. the 6 his last couple of years in STL. Huge difference if I remember correctly. Baseball is so ridiculously mental that is does make a difference, especially if your hitting approach is better tailored to one area of the order or another. Great example would be CPatt.

[goonys evil twin]

Derrek Lee's RBI total may have been higher with higher OBP in front of him, but the team's run production probably would not have been. That is what matters. Lee's RBI goes up if you flip a better OBP from the bottom to the top, but the run production at the bottom goes down.

 

What matters is those extremely low OBPs were on the team, not where they hit.

How about Aram and Pierre, batting adjacent in the order? Aram has excellent ability to advance baserunners, Pierre has very poor ability to advance baserunners. Aram hits home runs, Pierre does not. Aram is a very slow runner who clogs basepaths, Pierre is a very fast runner who does not clog basepaths. How can it not make a difference which of these guys bats first?

 

Bases don't get clogged.

[frostwyrm]

Derrek Lee's RBI total may have been higher with higher OBP in front of him, but the team's run production probably would not have been. That is what matters. Lee's RBI goes up if you flip a better OBP from the bottom to the top, but the run production at the bottom goes down.

 

What matters is those extremely low OBPs were on the team, not where they hit.

How about Aram and Pierre, batting adjacent in the order? Aram has excellent ability to advance baserunners, Pierre has very poor ability to advance baserunners. Aram hits home runs, Pierre does not. Aram is a very slow runner who clogs basepaths, Pierre is a very fast runner who does not clog basepaths. How can it not make a difference which of these guys bats first?

 

Bases don't get clogged.

We all laugh about Dusty's baseclogging talk, but there are exceptionally slow runners who really do clog things up. Aram with a bad hammy is like having an arthritic granny on base.

[CubColtPacer]

The difference between the best possible order and the worst possible order above is just less than 1 run. Dusty's orders, as ridiculous as they are sometimes, don't approach the level of stupidity of leading off with the pitcher, batting Pierre cleanup, etc.

 

Dusty's batting orders might be able to cost us a third of a run or half a run sometimes, but, as others have said, who is in the lineup is more important than the batting order. That's where Dusty really fails.

 

I've never believed the argument that batting order has very little effect on run production.

 

How many more RBI would Derrek Lee have had last year with 2 .400 OBP guys hitting 1st and 2nd in the order? How many more RBI would Neifi Perez have had? How many more RBI would Burnitz have had? Good OBP gets wasted when it is followed by poor AVG/SLG.

 

There is a particular reason that it makes sense to have good OBP guys hitting first in the game. There is also a particular reason that it makes sense to have your biggest boppers hitting directly behind those guys.

 

And just less than 1 run is a significant increase offensively. Just less than a run a game would propel this Cub team from 30th in the league to 10-12th in run production. That is very significant.

 

I consider 1 run a game significant, too.

 

However, note that the worst possible lineup, the one that would produce just 3.5 runs a game, is one in which the pitcher bats first, Juan Pierre hits cleanup, and Barrett and Nevin bat 8 and 9. As bad as Dusty is at lineup construction, he's never filled out such an atrocious card.

 

Therefore, adding 1 run per game through batting order construction is a pipe dream. The difference between the optimum batting order and the one Dusty used last night is .273 runs per game. That would be good enough to put the Cubs in 29th place in runs scored instead of 30th.

 

I have a question. Are there worse batting orders Dusty has used? I know you mentioned that Tuesday night's game was a .273 effect. Would that be normal, or would it be slightly higher if Neifi or Cedeno was in the 2 spot, for example?

I think .273 runs a game might still be significant even though. I know the Cubs are so far behind this year that it would not put them very much higher. How about last year though? That would have put us from 20th to 13th in runs scored if that effect was the same from game to game. So I guess I'm just wondering if that was a higher or lower difference of runs than a normal Dusty lineup.

[soccer10k]

Did you see the post-game show? They did a survey asking where Barrett should bat, and fifth got the most votes with second, second. Third wasn't a choice.

 

And then where does Barrett bat today? Third.