Do we have any position players worth a darn?

[CubsWin]

The answer to the question is no, there aren't any position players that are worth a darn. Combine the players' own weaknesses with the inept development team and you can make a ton of money betting against any of these guys doing anything good for the Cubs.

 

 

There's a couple of guys who could make nice bench players, but the Cubs will just their option clocks start early, then never let them play because they are too young for such a role. And maybe 1 or 2 of these guys will actually develop into decent major leaguers, but it won't be for the Cubs.

 

 

For an administration that focused so heavily on overhauling the minor league system, the Cubs have done, and continue to do a horrible job of getting any value whatsoever out of hitting prospects.

I find this view very unbalanced toward the negative. Goony is only considering the worst case scenario of these players and only seeing them coming true. I think it is very possible that some of these position players hit as really good players.

 

And what Goony said about being able to make a lot of money betting against any of these Cub prospects ever making it can be said about almost every prospect in the minors. Struggling to produce the next great position player isn't exclusively a Cubs problem.

[CubinNY]

Struggling to produce the next great position player isn't exclusively a Cubs problem.

 

No, it's primarily a problem of low and mid-market clubs who are hampered by financial concerns. The Cubs are in the same boat as KC, Cincinnatti, Pittsburgh, and Tampa.

 

But, by the same token the Cubs have focused on pitching prospects over the last decade with their high draft picks. Even so their track record is pretty piss poor.

[craig]

I would say the answer is basically no, we don't have any significant position prospects. Pie is likely to have a major league career, very possibly a pretty good one. But he's always been a high-K guy, and other than his brief AA season he's never projected a lot of power, and his base-stealing has struggled enough that it's wishful thinking to project him as a base-stealing difference maker. He's a good fielder, his hitting perhaps projects into a Jacque Jones someday if things go well for him?

 

Fox is a bad fielding catcher, and those aren't too popular in the majors. Had 3 passed balls the other day! Barrett is considered a weak receiver, andhe averages what, about 8-10 passed balls a year? And following his promotion, Fox hasn't hit much either. Chance, yes. Probability to ever be an asset starting catcher, not more than 20% IMO.

 

Eric Patterson is a high-K guy with little power. He's got a chance to play in the majors in some capacity, but again his probability of become an every-day 2B who's better than average is probably small, I'd guess 20% at best.

 

I'd probably give Moore maybe a 5% chance of becoming an asset starter?

 

Dopirak was horrendous at Daytona last year, with a .670 OPS (without factoring in the impact of his 20+ DP's-hit-into, plus his bad defense and baserunning). He's been even worse this year, with an empty .567 OPS, although of course he'll get a pass because he had an injury. But I think it's very, very unlikely that he'll ever translate his BP power into big-league game AB's.

 

Daytona doesn't have any players. Probably the best probability for any of Daytona's players to become a decent big-league starter is Ryan Harvey.... as a pitcher. And given that he's never pitched a professional strike, that probably speaks to what an empty scene Daytona is for position players.

 

Peoria, the players there are young enough so that it's harder to write them off. Reed and Yusuf Carter appear to be the two best prospects there.

 

Boise doesn't really have anybody except Colvin, who's off to a horrible start. Mesa has no position prospects at all, yet.

 

Obviously they are prospects, and things can change. Perhaps some long-shot will emerge as a real player.

 

But it looks to me like this may be the worst collection of position prospects that the Cub farms have ever had during my 25 years of closely following the Cub farms. Hopefully Pie will figure something out in time and become a good player.

[goonys evil twin]

I find this view very unbalanced toward the negative. Goony is only considering the worst case scenario of these players and only seeing them coming true. I think it is very possible that some of these position players hit as really good players.

 

You and many others have made similar accusations about me in the past. But the fact is I've been right. I know ineptitude when I see it.

 

I'm not just look at worst case scenario. Take Ryan Harvey for instance. His entire career path has bordered on worst case scenario so far. At some point, you have to narrow the range between worst case and best case, and come up with a realistic case that fits the bill. Almost every one of these guys has disappointed immensely. No position player has shot up the rankings. None of them are flirting with best of the best status around the league. None of them are doing anything special.

 

The excuse that all prospects are a big gamble doesn't hold any water. We aren't talking about the Cubs having the same woes as everybody else. For one, they have more resources than most other organizations. But they've been pretty much THE worst organization at developing position players for nearly 2 decades. That's not run-of-the-mill bad luck with prospects. That's a pretty clear indictment of their ability to draft, sign and develop position players.

 

You don't have to have a negative bias against the Cubs to have a very negative view against their position playing prospects.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Do we have any position players worth a darn?

 

No.

[ChiefsVoice]

Don't forget Jesus Valdez....this kid is always over looked and under-rated. he should have been a MWL all-star. He has a hit in 63 of 80 games played this year...does not have more than a 3 game hitless streak all-season....has some pop (4 hr, 2nd on team in RBI) and some spead (15 doubles, 8 steals)....doesnt draw many walks (11) but has just 44 K in 330 TPA. He also has 3 hit streaks of at least 8 games including a 19 gamer. I know he missed all of 2004, but last year he was .244/5/38 and this year he is .302 and on pace for 7 HR and 73 RBI...significant improvements for a 21 year old...

 

Id rank our position prospects as follows:

Reed (great defensive C with strong arm who can also play 3b and 1b)

Carter (just learning the OF, best athlete ive seen in a long time in Peo.)

Johnston (remember the kid is 19! great arm and range)

Valdez (see above)

Norwood (damn i wish he wouldnt have lost all of 2005)

Reynolds (turning into a great defensive 3Bman)

 

Of the guys we had last year I'd rank them this way:

Garciaparra (ha!)

Patterson (please keep doubting him, its hilarious)

Fuld (having a great 2006. would be an ideal 4th OF)

Harvey (too early to give up on that much power and great arm)

and I don't see any other 2005 Chiefs making an impact at the MLB level.

 

Just two cents worth from a guy who has actually seen these kids (and i stress the word kids!) play, practice and work hard every single day.

[Hacking Out Machine]

Don't forget Jesus Valdez....this kid is always over looked and under-rated. he should have been a MWL all-star. He has a hit in 63 of 80 games played this year...does not have more than a 3 game hitless streak all-season....has some pop (4 hr, 2nd on team in RBI) and some spead (15 doubles, 8 steals)....doesnt draw many walks (11) but has just 44 K in 330 TPA. He also has 3 hit streaks of at least 8 games including a 19 gamer. I know he missed all of 2004, but last year he was .244/5/38 and this year he is .302 and on pace for 7 HR and 73 RBI...significant improvements for a 21 year old...

 

Id rank our position prospects as follows:

Reed (great defensive C with strong arm who can also play 3b and 1b)

Carter (just learning the OF, best athlete ive seen in a long time in Peo.)

Johnston (remember the kid is 19! great arm and range)

Valdez (see above)

Norwood (damn i wish he wouldnt have lost all of 2005)

Reynolds (turning into a great defensive 3Bman)

 

Of the guys we had last year I'd rank them this way:

Garciaparra (ha!)

Patterson (please keep doubting him, its hilarious)

Fuld (having a great 2006. would be an ideal 4th OF)

Harvey (too early to give up on that much power and great arm)

and I don't see any other 2005 Chiefs making an impact at the MLB level.

 

Just two cents worth from a guy who has actually seen these kids (and i stress the word kids!) play, practice and work hard every single day.

 

OK....

 

I hate to generalize, but I'll take some words or phrases that pepper what we can take as characteristics(mostly positive) about these guys, coming from someone in the know:(Remember, the original post asked if we have any IMPACT position players):

 

Valdez: "some pop", "doesn't draw many walks", "just 44 K in 330 PA"(i.e., puts the ball in play, just like our major league club)

 

Carter: "learning", "athlete"

 

Reed: "Defensive C", "strong arm", flexible..can play a lot of positions(paraphrasing)

 

Johnston: "great arm" "range" (Nothing wrong with good range at short, mind you)

 

Reynolds: "Defensive 3b man"

 

Forgive me if I'm not giddy with anticipation.

 

My question is this: Can any of these guys actually hit? Is there a single one of these guys that knows what the heck they are doing in the box, or are we stuck with guys, even at the A ball level, who top out as "flexible, athletic types" who have no instinctive clue how to play baseball?

 

I wish that just once, instead of talking about someone's athleticism, or strong arm, or ability to suck at several differenct positions, you could say, "this guy pounds the hell out of the ball". Is it too much to ask to have even ONE of these kind of guys, even at the low A level??

[sporrer17]

Reed is a very good hitter at this stage of his career. He struggled big time early on, and he didn't have a great year last year. He's always been considered a good bet to hit for a high average, he's got good speed (especially for a catcher...14 SB) He's hitting .300+ with a couple of HRs and pretty good speed, a nice #2 hitter. He's got good D, will stick at C, but can play 1b/3b as well.

 

Carter is a good athlete with power potential (6 HR in 101 AB). He's still pretty raw IMO, but he's got the skills. And he's even taken 12 BB in 101 AB.

 

Johnston is still very young (turned 19 in March) and he's good at taking walks (.305 OBP despite hitting under .200). He's got tools to play, but he's tremendously raw. There's still time, considering he's one of the youngest players in his league. He went deep off Hoffman in the only ST AB he had this year.

[Outshined_One]

My question is this: Can any of these guys actually hit? Is there a single one of these guys that knows what the heck they are doing in the box, or are we stuck with guys, even at the A ball level, who top out as "flexible, athletic types" who have no instinctive clue how to play baseball?

 

I wish that just once, instead of talking about someone's athleticism, or strong arm, or ability to suck at several differenct positions, you could say, "this guy pounds the hell out of the ball". Is it too much to ask to have even ONE of these kind of guys, even at the low A level??

 

Mark Reed is probably the guy you want out of that list. He's probably the best hitting prospect down there, which is a major plus considering his D at catcher. He needs to work on his patience a bit, but he projects to hit for decent power and already has established himself as a potential .300+ AVG guy, much like his brother Jeremy.

 

Out of everyone else on Nate's list, it gets a bit more questionable. Carter has a powerful bat with surprisingly good patience so far, but his average needs work. Johnston is the most intriguing guy since he has one of the best IsoDs in the system (.109), but needs to work on upping his average to a respectable level (although, he's holding his own for a 19 year old in the MWL). Valdez makes me leery because of his lack of walks, but he's shown himself to be a good high contact guy. Norwood needs to get moved up at some point, but again, the lack of walks make me curious. As for Reynolds, he might not hit enough to be an everyday 3B.

 

I'd agree with Nate's rankings. As things stand right now, Reed has the best chance to come up and be a good everyday guy. In terms of ceilings as hitters, Carter's is the best due to his good power.

[craig]

I like Mark Reed as a prospect. But in terms of hack's question, Reed does not exactly profile as an impact hitter. The current Reed is hitting in the .290's, which seems nice, but that's boosted by a flukishly high .376 BABIP. His 23% K-rate befits a guy with Harvey-like power, not a guy with only 2 HR's and only 11 XBH in 233 AB. His .075 IsoP this year is less than Juan Pierre.

 

I hope he develops well, that in time he looks like a good defensive catcher even relative to big-leaguers. And that his power boosts in time and his K's reduce. Given the very low hitting standards for big-league catchers, it's possible that he'll become an asset starter someday. But if so, that will be as a #7 or #8 hitter, maybe a #2 hitter, not a middle-of-the-order type impact bat.

 

There just aren't that many impact hitters with K/HR ratios of 53/2. And who are low-walk hackers besides. It probably speaks to how poverty-stricken the Cubs are that a guy with a .708-OPS is the "impact hitting prospect" of our low-A.

 

Again, I'm not saying he's not a good prospect. No team has 25 impact players, and good teams benefit a lot from having solid players

 

Of the Peoria guys, Carter seems the guy who could become an impact hitter. He seems to have genuine power, and he has a chance to be patient. His 6HR/26K ratio is six times better than Reed's, and if his BABIP equalled Reed's, he'd be hitting .319. Obviusly his average is low. But his career and season has been so short that the sample size doesn't prove much.

[ChiefsVoice]

I like Mark Reed as a prospect. But in terms of hack's question, Reed does not exactly profile as an impact hitter. The current Reed is hitting in the .290's, which seems nice, but that's boosted by a flukishly high .376 BABIP. His 23% K-rate befits a guy with Harvey-like power, not a guy with only 2 HR's and only 11 XBH in 233 AB. His .075 IsoP this year is less than Juan Pierre.

 

I hope he develops well, that in time he looks like a good defensive catcher even relative to big-leaguers. And that his power boosts in time and his K's reduce. Given the very low hitting standards for big-league catchers, it's possible that he'll become an asset starter someday. But if so, that will be as a #7 or #8 hitter, maybe a #2 hitter, not a middle-of-the-order type impact bat.

 

There just aren't that many impact hitters with K/HR ratios of 53/2. And who are low-walk hackers besides. It probably speaks to how poverty-stricken the Cubs are that a guy with a .708-OPS is the "impact hitting prospect" of our low-A.

 

Again, I'm not saying he's not a good prospect. No team has 25 impact players, and good teams benefit a lot from having solid players

 

Of the Peoria guys, Carter seems the guy who could become an impact hitter. He seems to have genuine power, and he has a chance to be patient. His 6HR/26K ratio is six times better than Reed's, and if his BABIP equalled Reed's, he'd be hitting .319. Obviusly his average is low. But his career and season has been so short that the sample size doesn't prove much.

 

Hitting in the .290s??? Today (july 9) is the first game ALL SEASON that will start wil Mark hitting under .300 and it has taken a 0-18 slump that has dropped him below .300. He was at .343 leading the league in hitting at the All-Star Break. This kid can hit and he will be a good hitting catcher at the MLB level.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I find this view very unbalanced toward the negative. Goony is only considering the worst case scenario of these players and only seeing them coming true. I think it is very possible that some of these position players hit as really good players.

 

You and many others have made similar accusations about me in the past. But the fact is I've been right. I know ineptitude when I see it.

 

I'm not just look at worst case scenario. Take Ryan Harvey for instance. His entire career path has bordered on worst case scenario so far. At some point, you have to narrow the range between worst case and best case, and come up with a realistic case that fits the bill. Almost every one of these guys has disappointed immensely. No position player has shot up the rankings. None of them are flirting with best of the best status around the league. None of them are doing anything special.

 

The excuse that all prospects are a big gamble doesn't hold any water. We aren't talking about the Cubs having the same woes as everybody else. For one, they have more resources than most other organizations. But they've been pretty much THE worst organization at developing position players for nearly 2 decades. That's not run-of-the-mill bad luck with prospects. That's a pretty clear indictment of their ability to draft, sign and develop position players.

 

You don't have to have a negative bias against the Cubs to have a very negative view against their position playing prospects.

 

You were being excessively negative. A couple have futures as bench players, with maybe some becoming okay major leaguers elsewhere? That's hyperbole and you know it.

[Fro]

It's getting pretty pathetic at this point, especially with how hyped our minor league system was. One would think we could at least produce a few solid position players and a stud or two over the last 10 years.

 

Something has to change as far as scouting/development of hitters, because they're just not getting things done down there. I also think we need to change the ratio of signing pitching over hitting to be less lopsided, because what's happening right now is we hang on to pitchers too long and they end up losing value (Juan Cruz, Rich Hill), or we ship out A ball guys out and they turn into studs. The whole "we'll have a million stud pitchers and will be able to trade them for big bats" hasn't worked out.

[UBlink]

OK, just looking at the A+ Florida State League, 3 of the top 4 OPS leaders are from Daytona. Fox is the leader, already been promoted to AA where he's not exactly lighting it up. Fuld is number 3, but currently on the DL. Craig is number 4, wondering what he's doing in A+. But still, if 3 of the top 4 OPS guys in the league are not considered prospects, what does that say about the rest of the league?

[Outshined_One]

OK, just looking at the A+ Florida State League, 3 of the top 4 OPS leaders are from Daytona. Fox is the leader, already been promoted to AA where he's not exactly lighting it up. Fuld is number 3, but currently on the DL. Craig is number 4, wondering what he's doing in A+. But still, if 3 of the top 4 OPS guys in the league are not considered prospects, what does that say about the rest of the league?

 

Fuld came back yesterday.

 

Most of the best hitters are too old for the league. It's not a good year for hitters in the FSL.

[jaydee]

Struggling to produce the next great position player isn't exclusively a Cubs problem.

 

No, it's primarily a problem of low and mid-market clubs who are hampered by financial concerns. The Cubs are in the same boat as KC, Cincinnatti, Pittsburgh, and Tampa.

 

But, by the same token the Cubs have focused on pitching prospects over the last decade with their high draft picks. Even so their track record is pretty piss poor.

 

Yah, Tampa is really having trouble developing position players. I don't think financial concerns matter much in developing players other than signability issues.

[CubsWin]

I find this view very unbalanced toward the negative. Goony is only considering the worst case scenario of these players and only seeing them coming true. I think it is very possible that some of these position players hit as really good players.

 

You and many others have made similar accusations about me in the past. But the fact is I've been right. I know ineptitude when I see it.

 

I'm not just look at worst case scenario. Take Ryan Harvey for instance. His entire career path has bordered on worst case scenario so far. At some point, you have to narrow the range between worst case and best case, and come up with a realistic case that fits the bill. Almost every one of these guys has disappointed immensely. No position player has shot up the rankings. None of them are flirting with best of the best status around the league. None of them are doing anything special.

 

The excuse that all prospects are a big gamble doesn't hold any water. We aren't talking about the Cubs having the same woes as everybody else. For one, they have more resources than most other organizations. But they've been pretty much THE worst organization at developing position players for nearly 2 decades. That's not run-of-the-mill bad luck with prospects. That's a pretty clear indictment of their ability to draft, sign and develop position players.

 

You don't have to have a negative bias against the Cubs to have a very negative view against their position playing prospects.

 

You were being excessively negative. A couple have futures as bench players, with maybe some becoming okay major leaguers elsewhere? That's hyperbole and you know it.

I don't disagree that there is reason to doubt the Cubs ability to identify, draft and develop great position players.

 

I also don't disagree that we shouldn't be too excited about the current crop in general.

 

But, on a message board, all you have to go on are the poster's words, and your words, Goony, were indefensibly negative. You may not have meant them exactly the way you wrote them. You may have just been being colorful in your description of the mediocre state of the current crop of position prospects, but there really is no way for me to know that, so I take you at your word and respond accordingly.

 

I think it is very clear that the words you chose were unbalanced to the negative.

[CubsWin]

Struggling to produce the next great position player isn't exclusively a Cubs problem.

 

No, it's primarily a problem of low and mid-market clubs who are hampered by financial concerns. The Cubs are in the same boat as KC, Cincinnatti, Pittsburgh, and Tampa.

 

But, by the same token the Cubs have focused on pitching prospects over the last decade with their high draft picks. Even so their track record is pretty piss poor.

 

Yah, Tampa is really having trouble developing position players. I don't think financial concerns matter much in developing players other than signability issues.

What great position player have the Yankees produced lately? Robinson Cano? Its been a while since guys like Jeter and Posada. If money equals position player prospects, how do you explain the lack of guys coming out of the Yankees organization? How's Dioner Navarro turning out? Is Nick Johnson an all-star? Soriano's got some talent and he's had a great first half, but his career numbers paint a more complete picture.

 

And the Red Sox have really been pumping out the position player all-stars. Varitek came from Seattle. Ramirez from Cleveland. Ortiz from Minnesota. Damon, now on the Yanks, came from KC. There is Kevin Youklis who is doing pretty darn good this year and looks like a good one, but thats just one. Certainly with all that money the Red Sox can produce more than just one good position prospect? There's Freddy Sanchez, but he turned 28 before putting up really good numbers. Who's to say that Cedeno won't have a season like Sanchez is having this year when he turns 28?

 

I think we can safely say that money can influence the level of prospects a team can get, but it doesn't add up dollar for dollar.

 

Cedeno is pretty good all around. He still has some learning to do, thats for sure. Pie's future is still pretty darn bright. EPatt is getting it done at AA pretty well. Scott Moore has got a problem with strikeouts, but he has certainly answered a lot of the questions that plagued him before coming to the Cubs, suggesting that maybe Cubs instructors have helped in his case. They need to help him some more before he can have an impact at the major league level, but he is still just 22.

 

There are others worth mentioning, but all in all, it is a pretty mediocre bunch right now. However, thats not to say that there aren't several from this current group who have a shot to be pretty good to great major leaguers.

[CubsWin]

But to answer the question originally posed, are there any position players worth a darn right now? No, not at the moment, but that can change quickly. Nobody is on fire, red hot at the moment. But several have the ability to become that way very quickly.

 

Pie started the season that way but is struggling right now. But that doesn't mean that we should lose faith in him. There is a lot of evidence suggesting that he will turn it on again at some point. And he has plenty of time.

 

Brian Dopirak injured his foot in April and reports are that he can't generate any power right now. But that doesn't mean he never will. He was impressive while playing with the Cubs during spring training. He had such an amazing year in '04 that he vaulted to the top of many people's prospect list. Its not like that never happened. It just isn't happening right now. Can it happen again for him? Yes. Will it? That's why they play the games. He is also just 22 years old and playing at AA.

 

Jonathon Mota just turned 19 a month ago. He played and hit well enough to get promoted to High-A Daytona and is putting up similar numbers there as he did in Peoria. He is a really young, apparently slick fielding SS, so he doesn't have any power at this point, but he is hitting .281 on the year so far. Might he be a position player worth a darn? Yes. Its just too early to tell.

 

Might Patterson be worth a darn? Yes. I'd like to see the Cubs bring him up for the 2nd half of this year and trade Todd Walker, but I highly doubt they'll give up on this season like I would.

 

The aforementioned Reed? Perhaps. But he is clearly not a complete hitter right now.

 

So I think the answer is no, at the moment, there are no position-prospect sure things firing on all cylinders in the Cubs system.

[NCCubFan]

Might Patterson be worth a darn? Yes. I'd like to see the Cubs bring him up for the 2nd half of this year and trade Todd Walker, but I highly doubt they'll give up on this season like I would.

Even if the Cubs finally face reality and give up on the season, Patterson shouldn't be called up yet. He's having a good season in AA, but this is only his second pro season. They ruined his brother's development by calling him up before he was ready; hopefully they won't do the same thing with Eric. I wouldn't mind a September callup, but I doubt that would happen since they'd need to add him to the 40-man roster and start the option clock to do so.

[CuseCubFan69]

Could Scott Moore be moved to left or 2nd base?

[sporrer17]

Could Scott Moore be moved to left or 2nd base?

 

He's definitely athletic enough to play either position, as I believe he was a SS in Detroit's system for a bit, or at least drafted as one. I'm not sure where more of his problems come from (throwing/hands) defensively, but if it's his arm, he could make a nice move to 2b and be a very good hitting 2b.

 

Or he could be moved to LF and probably do a very nice job. He's got speed, power, and an okay average. Decent job of drawing walks too. Solid IsoD (.064) and pretty decent IsoP (.210). The average could stand to come up a bit, but if he is a .270 hitter with a .335 OBP and .480 SLG in the bigs, he could be a very valuable part of any team, especially with good speed and HR power.

[CuseCubFan69]

Could Scott Moore be moved to left or 2nd base?

 

He's definitely athletic enough to play either position, as I believe he was a SS in Detroit's system for a bit, or at least drafted as one. I'm not sure where more of his problems come from (throwing/hands) defensively, but if it's his arm, he could make a nice move to 2b and be a very good hitting 2b.

 

Or he could be moved to LF and probably do a very nice job. He's got speed, power, and an okay average. Decent job of drawing walks too. Solid IsoD (.064) and pretty decent IsoP (.210). The average could stand to come up a bit, but if he is a .270 hitter with a .335 OBP and .480 SLG in the bigs, he could be a very valuable part of any team, especially with good speed and HR power.

 

I was hoping he was athletic enough to switch postions if he had too and that's good to hear...thanks sporrer!

[imb]

I don't know about that. 2nd basemen usually turn into thirdbasemen, not vice versa.

[CuseCubFan69]

I don't know about that. 2nd basemen usually turn into thirdbasemen, not vice versa.

 

Kind of like Ryne Sandberg, right? It can be done and it depends on the athlete.