Lee or Dunn?

[Backtobanks]

During the offseason, many posters just drooled at the thought of getting Dunn to play LF. Also, many posters dismiss the availability of Carlos Lee. I admit that I'm an old-timer in regards to sabermetrics, but I would love to see Lee playing for the Cubs. A guy who averages 30 HRs and 105 RBIs while hitting .284 sounds like a pretty solid corner OF to my 1950s statistical mind. With Dunn, you have 3 choices......HR, SO, or BB. Neither is a great defensive OFer, but Dunn makes anybody look good. Abreu would be great, but at what cost and for how long? Obviously, I think we all agree that Cabrera is the answer, but CLee wouldn't be a bad second choice.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wow, Lee's all the way down to a .339 OBP.

 

Regarding Lee v. Dunn, every season of Dunn's career except '03 is better than any season in Lee's career. He's also 4 years younger.

[goonys evil twin]

A guy who averages 30 HRs and 105 RBIs while hitting .284 sounds like a pretty solid corner OF to my 1950s statistical mind.

 

That's the problem, he doesn't average 30/105 per season. He averages that per 162 games played, but he's only played 162 once. He's only surpassed the 100 RBI mark twice.

 

Anybody could drive in 100 RBI in the middle of even a mediocre lineup. That's no accomplishment. Carlos is a good hitter. But he's far from great. And he has some serious drawbacks to his offensive game, more than Dunn.

[dalgreen]

I'd take Dunn. Your reasons for Lee would be just about what Hendry's reasons would be. Except you left out the part of him wanting to play here.

[Neuby]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

[soccer10k]

A guy who averages 30 HRs and 105 RBIs while hitting .284 sounds like a pretty solid corner OF to my 1950s statistical mind.

 

That's the problem, he doesn't average 30/105 per season. He averages that per 162 games played, but he's only played 162 once. He's only surpassed the 100 RBI mark twice.

 

Anybody could drive in 100 RBI in the middle of even a mediocre lineup. That's no accomplishment. Carlos is a good hitter. But he's far from great. And he has some serious drawbacks to his offensive game, more than Dunn.

 

That's not exactly a good way to measure a players worth. He's played 150+ games in 5 of 7 seasons.

 

I would take Dunn though. Lee hasn't put up a .900+ OPS in a season yet and he's 30 (although he is on pace for his first this year). Dunn put up a .900+ OPS the last two years, is on pace for another this year and put one up in 244 AB's in 2001 and he's only 26.

[goonys evil twin]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

[goonys evil twin]

That's not exactly a good way to measure a players worth. He's played 150+ games in 5 of 7 seasons.

 

I'm not measuring his worth with games played numbers. I'm refuting the claim that he averages 30/105, which is just not true.

[srbin84]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

True, I'm not saying Lee is as good offensively as Dunn, but a hit is better than a walk, even if it isn't for extra bases.

[soccer10k]

That's not exactly a good way to measure a players worth. He's played 150+ games in 5 of 7 seasons.

 

I'm not measuring his worth with games played numbers. I'm refuting the claim that he averages 30/105, which is just not true.

 

Fair enough. And I agree with you in the 30/105 point you made.

[baseball7897]

The choice is a simple one for me. I would rather have D-Lee than Dunn. Lee brings so much more to a team. He runs, he hits for average, plays the best 1b in the league, hits for power and he is a leader.

[soccer10k]

The choice is a simple one for me. I would rather have D-Lee than Dunn. Lee brings so much more to a team. He runs, he hits for average, plays the best 1b in the league, hits for power and he is a leader.

 

It's Carlos Lee not DLee.

[baseball7897]

The choice is a simple one for me. I would rather have D-Lee than Dunn. Lee brings so much more to a team. He runs, he hits for average, plays the best 1b in the league, hits for power and he is a leader.

 

It's Carlos Lee not DLee.

 

My bad. I thought they were talking about D-lee.

[srbin84]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

 

And both are better than an out. Dunn makes significantly fewer outs while hitting for the same power. He's better.

[srbin84]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

 

And both are better than an out. Dunn makes significantly fewer outs while hitting for the same power. He's better.

 

That's what I said a few posts ago. Saying average doesn't matter at all though is foolish. A single is better than a walk.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

 

And both are better than an out. Dunn makes significantly fewer outs while hitting for the same power. He's better.

 

That's what I said a few posts ago. Saying average doesn't matter at all though is foolish. A single is better than a walk.

 

Average matters very little compared to OBP and SLG. Using it as a means to try to rip Dunn, which is what Neuby was doing, is foolish.

[srbin84]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

 

And both are better than an out. Dunn makes significantly fewer outs while hitting for the same power. He's better.

 

That's what I said a few posts ago. Saying average doesn't matter at all though is foolish. A single is better than a walk.

 

Average matters very little compared to OBP and SLG. Using it as a means to try to rip Dunn, which is what Neuby was doing, is foolish.

 

That's fine, but goony is wrong for saying it has no value. Don't even try to tell me a walk is just as good as a single.

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

 

And both are better than an out. Dunn makes significantly fewer outs while hitting for the same power. He's better.

 

That's what I said a few posts ago. Saying average doesn't matter at all though is foolish. A single is better than a walk.

 

 

Average matters very little compared to OBP and SLG. Using it as a means to try to rip Dunn, which is what Neuby was doing, is foolish.

 

That's fine, but goony is wrong for saying it has no value. Don't even try to tell me a walk is just as good as a single.

 

I agree for the most part, but the Cubs are a team that need to take walks. Unless all their singles are deep in the count see a lot of pitch singles.

 

They need to take more pitches and the willingness to draw walks are a way they can do it. Hits are great, but isn't this fundamentally what Baker and Clines and company teach?

[Neuby]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

 

And both are better than an out. Dunn makes significantly fewer outs while hitting for the same power. He's better.

 

That's what I said a few posts ago. Saying average doesn't matter at all though is foolish. A single is better than a walk.

 

Average matters very little compared to OBP and SLG. Using it as a means to try to rip Dunn, which is what Neuby was doing, is foolish.

 

That's fine, but goony is wrong for saying it has no value. Don't even try to tell me a walk is just as good as a single.

 

Foolish or not I don't want a guy who's production is soley based on the long ball. Dunn doesn't hit 4 any kind of average , strike outs a ton, no speed, and can't play anywhere but first base badly at that . Is that enough to rip Dunn? There's no way he's worth 3 of are top prospects as comapared to Lee.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Foolish or not I don't want a guy who's production is soley based on the long ball. Dunn doesn't hit 4 any kind of average , strike outs a ton, no speed, and can't play anywhere but first base badly at that . Is that enough to rip Dunn? There's no way he's worth 3 of are top prospects as comapared to Lee.

 

Dunn's production isn't solely based on the long ball just because he's a power hitter with a low AVG. The prior discussion wasn't considering the costs to get them.

[BigbadB]

Don't even try to tell me a walk is just as good as a single.

 

No one will argue that a walk is better than a single. But, just to give you an idea how little the Cubs respect the walk, digest these numbers. Pay very close attention to these numbers:

 

Cubs hitters this year: 669 hits

Cubs opponents (you know, the teams that have held the Cubs to less than 30 wins so far this year): 639 hits

 

The Cubs have outhit their opponents this year by 30 hits. Why do you suppose the Cubs have been outscored 392-298 if hits are so much better than walks?

 

Because, the other team is getting on base more often than the Cubs

 

Cubs hitters getting on base (minus HBP): 848

Cubs opponents getting on baes (minus HBP): 952

 

I'll take the guys who get on base more.

 

Dunn gets on base more than Lee.

 

But, this isn't factoring in what it would take to get these players.

[srbin84]

Don't even try to tell me a walk is just as good as a single.

 

No one will argue that a walk is better than a single. But, just to give you an idea how little the Cubs respect the walk, digest these numbers. Pay very close attention to these numbers:

 

Cubs hitters this year: 669 hits

Cubs opponents (you know, the teams that have held the Cubs to less than 30 wins so far this year): 639 hits

 

The Cubs have outhit their opponents this year by 30 hits. Why do you suppose the Cubs have been outscored 392-298 if hits are so much better than walks?

 

Because, the other team is getting on base more often than the Cubs

 

Cubs hitters getting on base (minus HBP): 848

Cubs opponents getting on baes (minus HBP): 952

 

I'll take the guys who get on base more.

 

Dunn gets on base more than Lee.

 

But, this isn't factoring in what it would take to get these players.

 

Again, Dunn is better than Lee.

[imb]

No one thinks that a single is better than a walk. But when looking at two players, if one gets on base significantly more than the other, it doesnt matter if that obp is registered via walk or bat on ball, what matters is that he makes fewer outs.

[Rob]

Foolish or not I don't want a guy who's production is soley based on the long ball. Dunn doesn't hit 4 any kind of average , strike outs a ton, no speed, and can't play anywhere but first base badly at that . Is that enough to rip Dunn? There's no way he's worth 3 of are top prospects as comapared to Lee.

 

Of course you don't, that'd be foolish.

 

But Dunn does happen to bring more than the long ball. He also has the moderately-less long ball, also known as the double. And as I'm sure you've had crammed into your head more than you care for, the son of a gun draws walks... tons of them.

 

And would you believe it, his career average comes in at .246 Pretty darn close to that arbitrary .250 number you pulled as the cutoff earlier, if I'm not mistaken.

 

As I'm sure you're well aware, most good players have that one career year where they get lucky and hit for a higher batting average that they normally would. Now, think about how amazing Dunn would be in that one year. Gambling on that would definately be worth passing on proven mediocrity like Carlos Lee, don't you think?

 

Oh, and insterestingly enough, BP's measure of his speed puts him in the 60th percentile for MLB players... and I'm inclined to side with them on this matter, looking back at 2002 where he stole 19 bags leads me to believe he's not completely devoid of speed, as you said.