Prospect Spotlight #1 - Felix Pie

[Guest]

I’ll be honest here: Most of my articles tend to be pretty long, pretty much because I love hearing myself talk. (Or, to be even more pathetically accurate in this case, I love reading what I have typed.) This leads to complicated, ambitious, and most of all infrequent entries to the articles section of NSBB that drone on and on about correlation coefficients, persistence, and sample sizes. Let me assure my beloved fans – if I have any, and if I do you guys really should get out more – that I’ll still probably write the occasional long, complicated, and droning article. There will just be a bunch of shorter, mostly informative (as opposed to analytical) articles in between. What’s the impetus for the sudden change in my work quota, and what will these articles entail? Read on.

 

I’ve recently been fortunate enough to stumble across a gigantic treasure-trove of baseball stats. The detail and scope of this data even outclass Retrosheet’s vaunted event files, though that comes at a price. Retrosheet is slow getting their PBP data out the door, but when it is finally available you can be extremely confident in its completeness and accuracy. The PBP database I’ve been putting together has lots of detailed information from every level of organized baseball, but it hasn’t had the advantage of being scrutinized for errors or omissions by an army of baseball nerds. Therefore, some data is bound to be missing or even wrong. It’s not a huge margin, mind you: If I were to guess I’d say that this database is about 98% complete and the data that is there is 99.7% accurate. In other words, good enough for me, particularly when you consider some of the cool things you can do with it. Speaking of cool things…

 

Read and provide feedback, please!

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

BK, could I request an article on Scott Moore?

[Guest]

BK, could I request an article on Scott Moore?

He's officially in the queue. :) (Though he won't be next. I promised some detailed info on Gallagher to Serena about a month and a half ago and have yet to get around to it. He's next!)

[Guest]

I should also note that reports on players on lower levels won't be quite as detailed. (Pitch location/sequence data for levels below AAA is sketchy at best, bordering on completely unreliable.)

 

I can do any player you can think of, though, right down to guys in the rookie leagues of Venezuela and the Dominican.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

BK, I like the detailed charts and graphs, but I think the casual fan might want your interpretations or analysis as to what they show and what that means for the player.

[Jon]

That's awesome. I'll post suggestions later, but it looks like that backs up my impressions on the number of Ks looking he's had as of late.

 

Edit: I'd like to request Eric Patterson. And I agree with Vance about the interpretation.

[Outshined_One]

Oooooooooo...pretty colors. ;)

 

One thing I would like to see tracked over this season would be how Pie's IsoD and IsoP have been doing over the course of the season.

 

Also, I'd like to request an analysis of Dylan Johnston.

[Laura]

BK, could I request an article on Scott Moore?

He's officially in the queue. :) (Though he won't be next. I promised some detailed info on Gallagher to Serena about a month and a half ago and have yet to get around to it. He's next!)

 

HOORAY!!! \:D/

 

Let me assure my beloved fans – if I have any, and if I do you guys really should get out more – that I’ll still probably write the occasional long, complicated, and droning article.

 

Quoted for truth! (and I finally have a new rank!) :)

[BeerHere]

Well done BK.

[TB_11]

Very nice work BK - VERY impressive. Would it be possible to compare years for the same player? I know the analysis will be skewed as players advance (or retreat) through the minors, but it would still be interesting to see.

[fiver]

The stats BK provided that outline where (RF, RCF, etc.) Pie puts balls into play and how (FB, GB, LD, etc) he puts them into play suggest that Pie is in the mold of Jaqcue Jones, IMO. I don't have the same numbers for Jones right in front of me when making this comparison, but Jones certainly hits mostly line drives and sharply hit ground balls to right field. From watching Jones hit in '06, it's apparent that he hits a lot of popups and lazy fly balls to left field when he reaches for outside pitches instead of driving the ball to LF Judging from the stats, Pie takes a similar swing at these outside pitches. Both Jones and Pie hit a significant amount of line drives to the opposite field gap. Both strike out a tremendous amount.

 

Am I mistaken? I'd love to see the same stats for Jacque. Does the comparison stop there? I wonder if their pitch sequence tracking stats are similar.

[CoolHandLuke]

The stats BK provided that outline where (RF, RCF, etc.) Pie puts balls into play and how (FB, GB, LD, etc) he puts them into play suggest that Pie is in the mold of Jaqcue Jones, IMO. I don't have the same numbers for Jones right in front of me when making this comparison, but Jones certainly hits mostly line drives and sharply hit ground balls to right field. From watching Jones hit in '06, it's apparent that he hits a lot of popups and lazy fly balls to left field when he reaches for outside pitches instead of driving the ball to LF Judging from the stats, Pie takes a similar swing at these outside pitches. Both Jones and Pie hit a significant amount of line drives to the opposite field gap. Both strike out a tremendous amount.

 

Am I mistaken? I'd love to see the same stats for Jacque. Does the comparison stop there? I wonder if their pitch sequence tracking stats are similar.

 

:shock: :shock: #-o

 

Nice read, looking forward to more.

[Chris]

Great work! Looking forward to the article on Gallagher!

[Guest]

BK, could I request an article on Scott Moore?

He's officially in the queue. :) (Though he won't be next. I promised some detailed info on Gallagher to Serena about a month and a half ago and have yet to get around to it. He's next!)

 

HOORAY!!! \:D/

Yeah, sorry it's taken me so long getting back to you on that one.

 

Very nice work BK - VERY impressive. Would it be possible to compare years for the same player? I know the analysis will be skewed as players advance (or retreat) through the minors, but it would still be interesting to see.

I might be able to cajole some limited data from 2005 into the database, but it won't be any time soon. For now we'll just have to live data from 2006 on.

 

The stats BK provided that outline where (RF, RCF, etc.) Pie puts balls into play and how (FB, GB, LD, etc) he puts them into play suggest that Pie is in the mold of Jaqcue Jones, IMO.

I don't really see it. Jones's stats for 2006: (Sorry they aren't fomatted prettily:)

  n.a      lf    lcf     cf     rcf     rf
1  H# 15.0000 38.000 24.000 61.0000 37.000
2  H%  0.0857  0.217  0.137  0.3486  0.211
3 AVG  0.6000  0.263  0.583  0.2787  0.378
4 SLG  1.2667  0.579  0.917  0.3934  0.730
5 GB%  0.3077  0.357  0.378  0.7333  0.600
6 LD%  0.3077  0.143  0.216  0.1778  0.169
7 FB%  0.3846  0.339  0.405  0.0889  0.231
8 PU%  0.0000  0.161  0.000  0.0000  0.000

I'd say it looks like Jones uses the whole field better than Pie, particularly when he drives the ball up the middle. We should keep in mind, though, that these stats are coming from a a career half-season for Jones.

[fiver]

I don't really see it. Jones's stats for 2006: (Sorry they aren't fomatted prettily:)

  n.a      lf    lcf     cf     rcf     rf
1  H# 15.0000 38.000 24.000 61.0000 37.000
2  H%  0.0857  0.217  0.137  0.3486  0.211
3 AVG  0.6000  0.263  0.583  0.2787  0.378
4 SLG  1.2667  0.579  0.917  0.3934  0.730
5 GB%  0.3077  0.357  0.378  0.7333  0.600
6 LD%  0.3077  0.143  0.216  0.1778  0.169
7 FB%  0.3846  0.339  0.405  0.0889  0.231
8 PU%  0.0000  0.161  0.000  0.0000  0.000

 

I'd say it looks like Jones uses the whole field better than Pie, particularly when he drives the ball up the middle. We should keep in mind, though, that these stats are coming from a a career half-season for Jones.

 

I was basing the comparison on earlier in the year as I haven't watched the Cubs play very much in the last month and a half. Judging from the numbers though, I was way off target.

 

Edit - one really shouldn't try to make a comparison b/w the very detailed hitting statistics of one player and a perception of another player based upon a limited visual evaluation. Earlier in the season, it did appear to me that Jacque was mostly a pull hitter, occassionaly powering a ball to the opposite field gap, and very rarely hitting a ball to LF with any authority.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fascinating read, thank you much, BK.

 

I'd request a look at Mark Reed, Donnie Veal and Carlos Marmol, if possible. I know Veal and Reed might be especially difficult since they were/are in Peoria.

[NorthsideAvenger]

BK;

 

Appreciate the time and effort for that analysis, and whatnot...but I haven't the clue what you just said. :-k

 

Was it in english, or should I go to college and get a PHD in some mathematical course, to understand what you just wrote. =D> on the research, and th detail report, but again....what your said could had been written in Arabic for all I know.

 

My belief is that while studying statistics can be vital, it can be overrated, and overstated. Again baseball isn't play through statistics, or on paper, it play on a Diamond.

[soapy]

Great article, BK. Keep up the good work.

[shawndgoldman]

Your Felix Pie article was fantastic! I was wondering if you can provide the same type of data for the hitters our pitching prospects face. I've been debating whether or not Rich Hill is a "AAAA pitcher" with Al Yellon over at Bleed Cubbie Blue. The big problem with Hill at the MLB level to date has been his high walk rate... the big question is what causes the high walk rate. Al believes that Hill has a curveball that major leaguers lay off of when it misses the zone but that minor league hitters swing at even when its in the dirt. I tend to think Hill's nibbled at the corners more at the MLB level due to either fear of the better hitters or due to the coaching of Larry Rothschild and Dusty Baker. The problem i envision is a correctable one but the one Al thinks is causing trouble has to do with a lack of talent, so determining which one is really the cause of Hill's troubles will go a long way towards telling us what we can expect out of him in the future.

 

The swing rate, contact rate, and location charts you showed for Pie would be incredibly powerful tools for resolving this debate. If Al's right, then the swing rate should be much higher for Hill's AAA appearances than his major league ones, and there should be a big blue spot low in the zone for Hill's AAA opponent swing% chart that isn't there (or is at least more green) for the same chart at the MLB level. If i'm right, then the swing rates should stay relatively constant between AAA and MLB but the pitch rate should be higher outside the zone for Hill's MLB appearances.

 

Either way, thanks for doing this! The data is fantastic!

[Guest]

Your Felix Pie article was fantastic! I was wondering if you can provide the same type of data for the hitters our pitching prospects face. I've been debating whether or not Rich Hill is a "AAAA pitcher" with Al Yellon over at Bleed Cubbie Blue. The big problem with Hill at the MLB level to date has been his high walk rate... the big question is what causes the high walk rate. Al believes that Hill has a curveball that major leaguers lay off of when it misses the zone but that minor league hitters swing at even when its in the dirt. I tend to think Hill's nibbled at the corners more at the MLB level due to either fear of the better hitters or due to the coaching of Larry Rothschild and Dusty Baker. The problem i envision is a correctable one but the one Al thinks is causing trouble has to do with a lack of talent, so determining which one is really the cause of Hill's troubles will go a long way towards telling us what we can expect out of him in the future.

 

The swing rate, contact rate, and location charts you showed for Pie would be incredibly powerful tools for resolving this debate. If Al's right, then the swing rate should be much higher for Hill's AAA appearances than his major league ones, and there should be a big blue spot low in the zone for Hill's AAA opponent swing% chart that isn't there (or is at least more green) for the same chart at the MLB level. If i'm right, then the swing rates should stay relatively constant between AAA and MLB but the pitch rate should be higher outside the zone for Hill's MLB appearances.

 

Either way, thanks for doing this! The data is fantastic!

Acutally, Hill is next on my list of players to do. I've been working on getting some more detailed breakdowns (such as all existing tables/graphs broken into R/L splits) and hopefully will be done with that in the next couple of days. I had originally planned to just look at his AAA numbers, but it may be interesting to see how differently he has fared in the majors. The big caveat with that is his relatively small number of MLB innings. Any conclusions drawn from a couple dozen innings won't be on the firmest footing no matter which side the data supports.

 

At any rate, I hope to have Rich's report done by the time he takes the Hill in the AAA all-star game. Just to give you a preview, though, I'd say that you're both a bit right. Hill was definitely missing the strike zone more often in the majors, but it also looks like MLB batters were doing a better job of laying off bad pitches (whether they were in the zone or not) than their AAA counterparts. On another interesting note, it doesn't look as if it's Rich's curve that's giving him troubles in the majors. The big difference to me seems to be how batters handle his fastball up in the zone. Minors batters tend to swing at the high cheese far more often and rarely make contact when they do; MLB hitters tend to lay off of it and do a better job of catching up to it when they do swing.

[NCCubFan]

At any rate, I hope to have Rich's report done by the time he takes the Hill in the AAA all-star game.

:lol:

[shawndgoldman]

Acutally, Hill is next on my list of players to do.

I can't express in words how excited this makes me... One of these :D will have to do.

The big caveat with that is his relatively small number of MLB innings. Any conclusions drawn from a couple dozen innings won't be on the firmest footing no matter which side the data supports.

Absolutely. One thing Al and i agree on is the only surefire way to answer the question is to give the guy more innings in the majors. I for one am all in favor of finding out what we have by doing so.

On another interesting note, it doesn't look as if it's Rich's curve that's giving him troubles in the majors.

That certainly is interesting. I'm really glad you're on the case here! Keep up the excellent work!

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

When you finish the work on Hill, can we have someone email it to Jim Hendry?

[TXCubsFan]

On another interesting note, it doesn't look as if it's Rich's curve that's giving him troubles in the majors. The big difference to me seems to be how batters handle his fastball up in the zone. Minors batters tend to swing at the high cheese far more often and rarely make contact when they do; MLB hitters tend to lay off of it and do a better job of catching up to it when they do swing.

 

I saw Rich pitch in Round Rock earlier this year, and you hit the nail on the head. At Round Rock Rich was using three pitches, including a tight rather than than 12-6 curve ball. Rich was striking out batters on high fastballs that I thought at the time major league hitters would have crushed.

 

His performance made me think he had the stuff to be a #4 starter in the majors if he'd use his off-speed pitches more in strikeout counts.

[CuseCubFan69]

The contact chart hypnotized me and when I stared at it for 2 minutes straight it said this word.....glavin.

 

Let me know if I read this right but did it look as if Pie's stats went down from the early part of the year? If so, why? His lack of adjustments, injury, pitchers making better adjustments, tired?

 

Also, IMO if a player, even if they let a few strikes go by, can learn to read a pitch better by doing that....they will be better off in the long run. It's the one step back 2 steps forward IMO. He's missing those strikes by taking but if he really learns and I'm hoping Joshua is helping with this, he will be a complete hitter. If he gets down on himself after letting those go by he'll just be another low OBP guy unless he has a heck of a batting average.

 

Thanks for the breakdown...pretty cool stuff.