ESPN 1000 Reporting the Cardinals after Craig Wilson

[MPrior]

Two points:

 

1, remember that Haren is in the AL, whereas Mulder is in the NL. So the disparity between their performance since the trade is even wider than it looks at first.

 

2, if you only get one stat, then ERA may be the best way to look at a pitcher (although that's certainly up for debate - there are lots of others which I think are probably just as useful - OPS against being just one), in the same way that OPS is the best for batters, if you only get one.

 

Tangentially, OPS is actually, in my mind, a pretty stupid stat. It's like taking, say, home runs and stolen bases and adding them together and saying that it's meaningful. The biggest reason it gets used so much is its simplicity - it's a helpful shorthand, but that's about it. I'd much rather just get the OBP and SLG separately.

[srbin84]

I just really don't like how people completely dismiss the mental aspect of baseball.

[Outshined_One]

I just really don't like how people completely dismiss the mental aspect of baseball.

 

So what exactly are you doing with Haren, then?

[srbin84]

I just really don't like how people completely dismiss the mental aspect of baseball.

 

So what exactly are you doing with Haren, then?

 

Eight playoff relief innings in one year doesn't tell me much. I'm not saying he couldn't be a playoff ace, but that is a rare quality and Mulder had it before St. Louis and last year. The Cubs don't make the playoffs very often, so I can see why that quality might be undervalued, but I put a lot of value in it based on the two experiences I have had watching the Cubs in the playoffs as well as what I have seen of other playoff teams over the years, both good and bad.

[abuck1220]

I just really don't like how people completely dismiss the mental aspect of baseball.

 

i just really don't like how people completely dismiss the concept of sample size.

[Outshined_One]

Eight playoff relief innings in one year doesn't tell me much. I'm not saying he couldn't be a playoff ace, but that is a rare quality and Mulder had it before St. Louis and last year. The Cubs don't make the playoffs very often, so I can see why that quality might be undervalued, but I put a lot of value in it based on the two experiences I have had watching the Cubs in the playoffs as well as what I have seen of other playoff teams over the years, both good and bad.

 

Mulder had pitched in four postseason games in his life when the Cardinals had traded for him. Four games.

 

Can you really judge a guy based on that?

[abuck1220]

 

Eight playoff relief innings in one year doesn't tell me much.

 

but 24 playoff starting innings do? b/c that's how many he had when the cards got him.

[srbin84]

Some of you don't even think 7 starts over 3 seasons is enough. What do you guys want? Not everybody plays for the Yankees and Braves.

[Outshined_One]

Some of you don't even think 7 starts over 3 seasons is enough. What do you guys want? Not everybody plays for the Yankees and Braves.

 

You didn't answer my point. At the time of the trade, he had only made 4 post season starts. If the Cardinals traded for him because he was a postseason ace based on his numbers over four starts, they were fools. You can't make the 7 starts argument after the fact because he hadn't even made three of those starts when they traded for him.

 

Why trade your best prospect, your best young starter, and a good reliever for a guy based solely on the fact that he had pitched very well over a 4 game stretch in the postseason? You seem to be basing your argument only on those four games.

[srbin84]

Some of you don't even think 7 starts over 3 seasons is enough. What do you guys want? Not everybody plays for the Yankees and Braves.

 

You didn't answer my point. At the time of the trade, he had only made 4 post season starts. If the Cardinals traded for him because he was a postseason ace based on his numbers over four starts, they were fools. You can't make the 7 starts argument after the fact because he hadn't even made three of those starts when they traded for him.

 

Why trade your best prospect, your best young starter, and a good reliever for a guy based solely on the fact that he had pitched very well over a 4 game stretch in the postseason? You seem to be basing your argument only on those four games.

 

You guys have been saying 7 starts isn't enough since yesterday. You answer my question first, then I'll make my case.

[Outshined_One]

Some of you don't even think 7 starts over 3 seasons is enough. What do you guys want? Not everybody plays for the Yankees and Braves.

 

You didn't answer my point. At the time of the trade, he had only made 4 post season starts. If the Cardinals traded for him because he was a postseason ace based on his numbers over four starts, they were fools. You can't make the 7 starts argument after the fact because he hadn't even made three of those starts when they traded for him.

 

Why trade your best prospect, your best young starter, and a good reliever for a guy based solely on the fact that he had pitched very well over a 4 game stretch in the postseason? You seem to be basing your argument only on those four games.

 

You guys have been saying 7 starts isn't enough since yesterday. You answer my question first, then I'll make my case.

 

I've been saying four starts wasn't enough. That was the number of starts he had made in the postseason when the Cardinals traded for him.

[Outshined_One]

You still haven't backed up your claim that the Cardinals never trade their key prospects and players.

 

So, I take it that made Calero, Haren, and Barton expendable and not potential top guys?

[srbin84]

Some of you don't even think 7 starts over 3 seasons is enough. What do you guys want? Not everybody plays for the Yankees and Braves.

 

You didn't answer my point. At the time of the trade, he had only made 4 post season starts. If the Cardinals traded for him because he was a postseason ace based on his numbers over four starts, they were fools. You can't make the 7 starts argument after the fact because he hadn't even made three of those starts when they traded for him.

 

Why trade your best prospect, your best young starter, and a good reliever for a guy based solely on the fact that he had pitched very well over a 4 game stretch in the postseason? You seem to be basing your argument only on those four games.

 

You guys have been saying 7 starts isn't enough since yesterday. You answer my question first, then I'll make my case.

 

I've been saying four starts wasn't enough. That was the number of starts he had made in the postseason when the Cardinals traded for him.

 

Ok, well, multiple others were implying it was a joke to think 7 starts was enough to judge someone. My case for 4 is simply that there wasn't anybody else available at the time for his salary with his record of success in the postseason that had a significantly greater amount of postseason starts.......and if we are going to include every factor, that was in the prime of his career and an allstar quality pitcher. You have to deal with the market as it is. You'd love to be as certain as possible but some designations are relative to the competition. Add to the desperation of an organization and a fan base starving for a world series after multiple postseasons ending in disaster, and you have a reason to make this deal. If you can find quotes from Jocketty indicating his postseason experience did not factor into the trade, I'd like to see them.

[Outshined_One]

Ok, well, multiple others were implying it was a joke to think 7 starts was enough to judge someone. My case for 4 is simply that there wasn't anybody else available at the time for his salary with his record of success in the postseason that had a significantly greater amount of postseason starts.......and if we are going to include every factor, that was in the prime of his career and an allstar quality pitcher. You have to deal with the market as it is. You'd love to be as certain as possible but some designations are relative to the competition. Add to the desperation of an organization and a fan base starving for a world series after multiple postseasons ending in disaster, and you have a reason to make this deal. If you can find quotes from Jocketty indicating his postseason experience did not factor into the trade, I'd like to see them.

 

See, if you had just said the bolded parts from the get-go, people wouldn't have gotten on you as much. Nobody can argue that since Mulder has been very good in the regular season and that he bolstered a rotation that really needed a #2 starter. We all saw plenty of Haren during his time with the Cardinals and knew that he was not a sure thing.

 

Go back and re-read my posts. I've been critical of basing your argument solely on his postseason numbers. Like everyone else has said, his postseason numbers are incredibly small in terms of their sample size. Be it four excellent starts during his time with the A's or six total quality starts in his career (and one crap the bed start in Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS), that simply is not enough to accurately judge a guy's ability to succeed in the postseason. It's very nice, there's no question about that. But does it make him a postseason ace? No, I do not think it adequately does.

 

Using only postseason numbers to judge a guy is highly problematic. Some terrible players can go on hot streaks at the right time, while great players can go into slumps. Look at the postseason numbers for guys like Sammy Sosa (.245/.403/.415 with 2 HR in 53 ABs) or Vlad Guerrero (.180/.241/.240 with 1 HR in 50 ABs). Meanwhile, look at the postseason numbers for guys like Eric Karros (.300/.364/.560 with 4 HRs in 50 ABs) and Alex S. Gonzalez (.275/.341/.625 with 4 HRs in 40 ABs).

 

Does that make Karros and Gonzalez better than Sosa and Guerrero?

[abuck1220]

mulder sucks.

[Geech]

mulder sucks.

 

He was pitching to the situation. He knew it would be a blowout so he went ahead and gave up a lot of runs.