Proposal: If you were to raise the white flag today...

[CubinNY]

IF we decided to play for 2007, I'd give as many of the guys in the minors a shot at the show as possible, just to see who can produce at a consistent level for 2007. Find out who's ready to produce next year, fill the gaps in the offseason.

 

The problem is if you bring up minor leaguers who aren't ready, what are they going to show you? They're going to look overwhelmed at the plate and on the mound. How are you going to decide who can produce at a consistent level for 2007, if they come up and stink. Kaspar and Brenley were talking about the fact that Guzman will be a good major league pitcher. I haven't seen anything yet that suggests that.

 

I disagree with that last statement. Guz clearly has plus-stuff, but he isn't comfortable being in The Show.

 

 

Is there any guarantee that he will ever be comfortable being in The Show. Juan Cruz had plus-stuff, Rich Hill has plus-stuff, Guzman has plus-stuff, as do many AA and AAA pitchers, but all that means is they have the

potential to be a good major league pitcher. Personally, I would like the Cubs to put some of these players in a package for Craig Wilson (even if it means overpaying).

 

Neither Guzman nor Hill have pitched enough to make any claims about their ability to pitch in "the show".

 

Trading either one for the likes of Craig Wilson would be beyond stupid.

[RynoRules]

I agree. Let me clarify what I wrote above - Guz has great stuff and isn't yet comfortable in the Bigs. You need to give him a chance to show that he will be. Also - and this may just be my perception - whenevr he throws first pitch strikes, he looks great. If it is in fact that simple, it shouldn't be a diffifcult problem to fix.

[VicCub]

I don't know if this is the right time to do this, but I said as a child in the 70's that the Cubs should blow up the team and go with youngsters. (ala the Marlins 06)

 

I wish that at some point between 1978 and today we would've done that. It seems to be the only thing we haven't tried.

 

What if we were Florida? We would suffer for a couple of years (hey what's a couple of more years!), but when the prospects pan out we could do what Florida probably can't- sign 'em to long term contracts and fill in the gaps with high dollar proven FA's.

 

I think that the Marlin's model would be fun, and almost assure us of fielding a real contender in a few years. I would just feel sorry for my fellow Cub fans who are getting up in years and don't have the time to wait.

[Backtobanks]

IF we decided to play for 2007, I'd give as many of the guys in the minors a shot at the show as possible, just to see who can produce at a consistent level for 2007. Find out who's ready to produce next year, fill the gaps in the offseason.

 

The problem is if you bring up minor leaguers who aren't ready, what are they going to show you? They're going to look overwhelmed at the plate and on the mound. How are you going to decide who can produce at a consistent level for 2007, if they come up and stink. Kaspar and Brenley were talking about the fact that Guzman will be a good major league pitcher. I haven't seen anything yet that suggests that.

 

I disagree with that last statement. Guz clearly has plus-stuff, but he isn't comfortable being in The Show.

 

 

Is there any guarantee that he will ever be comfortable being in The Show. Juan Cruz had plus-stuff, Rich Hill has plus-stuff, Guzman has plus-stuff, as do many AA and AAA pitchers, but all that means is they have the

potential to be a good major league pitcher. Personally, I would like the Cubs to put some of these players in a package for Craig Wilson (even if it means overpaying).

 

Neither Guzman nor Hill have pitched enough to make any claims about their ability to pitch in "the show".

 

Trading either one for the likes of Craig Wilson would be beyond stu[/b]pid.[/quote]

 

I don't understand why trading Guzman or Hill for Craig Wilson would be stupid. The Cubs need a right-handed power-hitting 1B who can also play RF and hit with power off of the bench. That sounds exactly like Craig Wilson to me. Guzman or Hill might be overpaying, but they might end up being AAAA pitchers too.

[wastra]

At this point, it's a bit silly to say who'd you'd trade for, because it's impossible to say who's definitely available and what that team would want in return.

 

So the real discussion is who would you get off this team one way or another, and which of our minor leaguers would get the callup?

 

Bynum, Rusch, Williamson, Hairston, Perez, Jones, Pierre, and half the other righties we've used out of the pen this year (Wuertz, Aardsma, Williams) really have no business on a roster intending to compete in the next two years. So obviously, you have to start trying to find homes for them where it won't cost you all their salary to mvoe them. I wouldn't even hope to get back more than a few mid-level prospects from the whole lot of them along with some castaway garbage.

 

Who gets the PT? Pie obviously is a guy you want to give a look to. Otherwise, just let guys who've worked hard get a few minutes of fame...Sing, Greenburg, Johnson, Theriot, etc.

 

 

Ultimately, the fact that we're in the situation we're in should be inexcusable from MacPhail's view.

[frostwyrm]

Rotation for remainder of season: Zambrano/Maddux/Prior/Wood/Marshall, remainder of Hill/Guzman and Ryu next in line for rotation spot.

 

You'd keep Maddux? He'd be the first player I'd shop. He'll be one of our best trading chips, maybe the best, and I'd want to make room for all of Marshall/Hill/Ryu/Guzman to have at least occasional starts.

[LoneStarCubFan]

RonDL White can be had from the Twins...

[Caryatid]

How 'bout this one:

 

Mark Prior for Lastings Milledge and another Met top 20 prospect.

[RynoRules]

How 'bout this one:

 

Mark Prior for Lastings Milledge and another Met top 20 prospect.

 

Not a terrible idea, but largely dependent on who that other "prospect" is and whether Prior is healthy.

[hrowengartner]

The Mets said they would not trade Milledge for D-train or zito, so why would they trade him for prior?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Trading Prior right now just isn't a good idea. He has more value than you're going to get for him.

[CubfaninCA]

RonDL White can be had from the Twins...

 

For who?

 

RonDL would be a nice addition. He can hit lefties.

 

omg! just looked at his numbers. he's been a lot worse than jones and pierre.

[tgk]

I don't think it's as catastrophic as it looks. First, I don't do anything today. It's still too early for a number of reasons. 1) A hot streak puts you back in it (In all reality, the season is probably toast, but you never know. ), 2) bad PR and bad for business 3) the value of my trading chips goes up the closer I get to the deadline (assuming they perform well) and 4) there is a lot of time for injuries and poor play on other teams to add to the market.

 

My main concern is getting Wood back. I put him in the rotation and tell Dusty to treat him with Kid gloves. No extended outings, don't send him back out to face the heart of the order in the 7th, that type stuff. Give Wood every opportunity to prove he's okay. I think firing Dusty is irrelevant at this point, unless he bucks the plan.

 

Now, at the end of June if we're still in the toilet, then I start shopping. Tops on my list are Wood, Maddux, Pierre and Walker. I don't believe any one of them will be with the organizatioin next year so I do what I can to get something out of them. I'd also be willing to pay all of their '06 salary to improve the return. The money is already budgeted and by that point a large percentage of the revenue has already been realized. (I'd like to get a major league ready 2nd baseman and outfielder but I'll take the best available deal regardless of position)

 

Wood is the key, if he pitches well and you can get him to waive his no trade, he could be a great trading chip. He's a lot like Nomar in that if he stays healthy he could come back to haunt you, but unless he's willing to come back on an incentive laden deal I can't take the chance. Maddux, Pierre and Walker can bring solid or better returns, depending on their production.

 

Once Pierre is gone, I bring up Pie and play him. Maybe you sit him for match-ups but other than that he needs to be on the field.

 

Even though it would be immensely unpopular, I keep both Perez and Rusch. At their salary they have no trade value and if you pay their salary you're still not going to get anything back worth having. As foolish as it is to pay them each $5 million over two years, it's even sillier to pay them not to play and then pay for a utility infielder and a swingman when they can full both those roles just fine.

 

I go into next season with a rotation of: Prior, Z, Miller, Marshall and Hill/Guzman. Bullpen is Eyre, Dempster, Howry and Rusch. Two open spots filled by internal competition.

 

Fielder's next season are: Barrett, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Pie, Cedeno, Murton. Perez is on the bench. Hopefully I Pick up my second baseman in trade or someone is ready. The free agent class for next year isn't all that spectacular.

[badgercub]

as far as a long term approach, no player is safe and anyone is available in the right trade. Secondly, the Cubs have enough money that they don't have to unload contracts, crappy players yes, contracts no. At the deadline I would look to possibly add payroll looking toward 2007. If you can find a young power hitting right fielder about to enter his prime and will be too expensive for a small market team team next year, you see what it would take to get him ala ARam and DLee. So in other words, I don't just look at unloading some of the veterans to contenders for prospects, but also trading some prospects and cheaper talent for other teams salary concerns.

[neely crenshaw]

i am not as versed on who is available next season but i do have definite ideas on what needs to be done....

 

first jones and pierre have to stay in the lineup. i may platoon them against lefties to bring up stats. i want as much value as possible for them when i deal them at the deadline... iam praying for an injury to an outfielder so someone will have a need for jones. i would like to not have to eat any of jones deal/ i will if necessary. may have to package him with someone else for less value to get out of a stupid deal. i can not have jones and murton in the same outfield. i want murton so jones must go- especially with pie on the horizon- he will play RF(possibly center) after the deal/deals

same scenarion for hill, wood and prior. i must see what i have in them and get value up in all. prior is probably a keep but i really need wood to look good enough to deal for serious value..i do know that we are out of his 12 mil after this year and i will not resign him no matter how good/healthy he looks..eye on a deal for robinson kanoe(sp) with the yanks

i would look to deal maddux but i may just let him finsih out and not resign him..far more classy. if a contender from the west coast is interested and he agrees...i would deal for little...knowing i get another 9 mil back to sign pitching.

williams gets in the rotation as soon as a starter is dealt. time to see if he is anything or just potential. could deal him if value is up some but won't get much unless packaged perhaps with jones or pierre.

in tarding pierre, i must get a lead off guy. pie will not be it. so i will look at ss,of or 2b to fill that. i also know that wherever i get a lead off guy, one of the other spots must have some pop! we can not play in wrigley with an outfield that won't combine for 55 HRS(like this year)unless we get 30+ somewhere else. we have to have a middle of the order hitter. barrett is a great offensive catcher but if you are good, he can't hit 5th. a middle of the road outfielder like burnitz produces like a top catcher.

we probably let walker go becuse of the need for leadoff and a bomber.

our best bet is to land a 2b that can lead off and play pie, a bomber in right.

 

what i want to keep

murton

pie

cedeno

lee

aram

barrett

target the free agnet that i want to lead off and get him. yes, we may have to over pay but as of now i would rather pay furcal 13 mil, and not pay pierre and jones wht we are paying them-and still have our prospects to deal! sometimes the cost isn't all in the salary!

possibilties at 2b vidro or soriano, kanoe from yanks

could get a ss and move cedeno to 2b. if we get a vet like tejada..we may have to use cedeno in the deal

if we got soriano we would have get leadoff from the outfield..he is not leading off..vidro and kanoe are possibilties to lead off

pitching i would keep the bullpen as is with the possibilty of adding a loogy instead of ohman. rusch would be long relief unless someone would take him at the deadline

starters

zambrano

prior...i will gamble with 1 starter being a health risk but not 3

marshall

the top healthy stud free agent pitcher..#1 quality

guzman or free agent(probably based on prior status) if prior is not healthy the rest of this year...i have to have a proven starter..at least a # 3 quality. guzman and whoever wasn't dealt(williams,miller, or hill if any) would be insurance

we have 21 mil less in starters salary if wood and maddux are gone(minus any buyouts)

lineup

1.2b?

2.cedeno

3.lee

4.bomber-rf?

5.aram

6.murton

7.barrett

8.pie

9.pitcher

[NoDak]

Interesting topic. I was actually thinking of putting something very similar out there.

 

What we have to remember is that other GMs are even worse than Hendry and what Hendry does WELL is getting decent value in trades. There is evidence to the contrary, of course, but LOTS of evidence NOT to the contrary.

 

Guys we could actually get something for:

Maddux: "Proven" veteran who is haveing a very good season and, added to a roster as a #3-4 starter could be a huge boost for a team. We would not get a top tier prospect for him but someone of the calibre of Rich Hill, Ronny Cedeno or the like.

 

Wood: Regardless of what some pundits believe KW would be a boost to many rotations. He is too injury prone to be a #1 guy but he is EXACTLY the kind of pitcher that teams get in bidding wars over at the trade deadline, especially if he is 6-3 3.90 ERA or something very achievable like that. This deal would also sidestep a tricky off-season decision for CHC as Wood is likely to go Free agent or go to arbitration where there is a limit on how much his pay can be cut.

 

Walker: A mediocre (to be generous) fielder who can just plain hit. I think he actually would have some value.

 

Rusch: Yeah, I know he is not very good, but many GMs are fascinated by the fact that he throws with the "other" hand. The history of baseball is replete with bad left handed pitchers who made a career for themselves based on that fact alone. Probably a mid-level prospect in return, but it is something and CHC does not nn another lefty.

 

Addition by subraction:

 

Perez: OK, to sell Perez you have to do 2 things:

1. Downplay his ability

2. Sell him to a team with even worse options at that position who also have GMs that are not playing with full decks.

 

I think #1 would be easier to do. I am sure that some team has a box of worn out baseballs in their A-league clubhouse.

 

See what we get for these guys.

 

I liked the suggestion in a previous post to trade Pierre and move Jones to CF where his numbers would look marginally better and trade him in the offseason.

 

Like most I don't think this is the time to make any of these deals (unless a deal too good to pass up comes along) b/c right now there are vultures circling over the cubs recent losing streak and GMs hoping that Hendry panics. I start making phone calls at the end of June if CHC is still swooning

[Backtobanks]

Interesting topic. I was actually thinking of putting something very similar out there.

 

What we have to remember is that other GMs are even worse than Hendry and what Hendry does WELL is getting decent value in trades. There is evidence to the contrary, of course, but LOTS of evidence NOT to the contrary.

 

Guys we could actually get something for:

Maddux: "Proven" veteran who is haveing a very good season and, added to a roster as a #3-4 starter could be a huge boost for a team. We would not get a top tier prospect for him but someone of the calibre of Rich Hill, Ronny Cedeno or the like.

Wood: Regardless of what some pundits believe KW would be a boost to many rotations. He is too injury prone to be a #1 guy but he is EXACTLY the kind of pitcher that teams get in bidding wars over at the trade deadline, especially if he is 6-3 3.90 ERA or something very achievable like that. This deal would also sidestep a tricky off-season decision for CHC as Wood is likely to go Free agent or go to arbitration where there is a limit on how much his pay can be cut.

 

Walker: A mediocre (to be generous) fielder who can just plain hit. I think he actually would have some value.

 

Rusch: Yeah, I know he is not very good, but many GMs are fascinated by the fact that he throws with the "other" hand. The history of baseball is replete with bad left handed pitchers who made a career for themselves based on that fact alone. Probably a mid-level prospect in return, but it is something and CHC does not nn another lefty.

 

Addition by subraction:

 

Perez: OK, to sell Perez you have to do 2 things:

1. Downplay his ability

2. Sell him to a team with even worse options at that position who also have GMs that are not playing with full decks.

 

I think #1 would be easier to do. I am sure that some team has a box of worn out baseballs in their A-league clubhouse.

 

See what we get for these guys.

 

I liked the suggestion in a previous post to trade Pierre and move Jones to CF where his numbers would look marginally better and trade him in the offseason.

 

Like most I don't think this is the time to make any of these deals (unless a deal too good to pass up comes along) b/c right now there are vultures circling over the cubs recent losing streak and GMs hoping that Hendry panics. I start making phone calls at the end of June if CHC is still swooning

 

The part that I bolded and underlined shows the difference between many of us and Hendry. You stated we couldn't get a top-tier prospect, but someone along the lines of Cedeno or Hill. During the spring, Hendry put Hill on an "untouchable" list and the Cubs act like he's the second coming of Sandy Koufax whereas we see Hill as a prospect with potential.

[RyCubsFan]

Trading Prior right now just isn't a good idea. He has more value than you're going to get for him.

 

 

Ditto Kerry Wood. I'm not sure how you can say this about Prior, but then advocate trading Wood.

 

It's disheartening that not one person in this entire thread mentioned Wood for the rotation next year. His value is simply too low right now, and his upside is still too high, to trade him.

 

My 07 rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Wood, Marshall, Guzman

My position players: Lee, Ramirez, Cedeno, Barrett, Murton, Pie

Needs: RF and 2B

 

Hill and Ryu could both be decent trade chips. If we were throwing in the white flag (which I believe it is way too early to do), then I'd make the following available: Maddux, Jones, Pierre, Rusch, Williamson, Perez, Hairston, Walker, Mabry, Blanco. I'd also call up Nic Jackson to see what he could do in RF.

[sethuel1]

Trading Prior right now just isn't a good idea. He has more value than you're going to get for him.

 

 

Ditto Kerry Wood. I'm not sure how you can say this about Prior, but then advocate trading Wood.

 

It's disheartening that not one person in this entire thread mentioned Wood for the rotation next year. His value is simply too low right now, and his upside is still too high, to trade him.

 

 

That's because his contract is up at the end of this year.

[NorthsideAvenger]

The Mets said they would not trade Milledge for D-train or zito, so why would they trade him for prior?

 

Maybe because---when healthy---Prior is better then Willis and Zito?

[larhur]

actually Maddox isn't that tradable, remember he is 40+, and he talks to and helps our pitching staff just thinking about pitching, He would make a good coach.

I think Wood comes back strong, he knows how to pitch and having just about everything wrong with him at one time or another he now knows how to keep healthy.

Prior I'am not sure about, he seems to have a lot of small problems that seem to go on for a long time, still has the ability to be a NO #1 if healthy.

Z will always be dicy, walk alot of batters, strike out more and eat up innings, Great for a ball team.

Guzman probably has the best stuff of any of the Cub pitchers, Just needs many innings to refine his stuff, remember he has has arm troubles which has cut down on meaningful innings.

Hill, has great stuff, but I don't think he is consistant enough and probably will never be,

Marshall, will be good but not great as a starter, Will be a 12-10 or 10-12 year after year, The kind of lefty that beats the cubs for another team.

I think you keep

Wood

Z

Maddox

Guzman

Marshall

You trade Prior for a big Banger in the outfield, trade Jones to someone that has just had a outfield injury, for a minor league AA starting pitcher that has potential as a Major leaguer

and Hill is to be traded to a pitching starved team for their best minor league player, reguardless of position.

And the fall back plan is Miller in June to the starting staff