Prior and Wood updates

[CubsWin]

THANK GOODNESS he pitched in relief last year even though it meant he missed the first month plus of 2006. TOTALLY WORTH IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To those who gave up on the season in July, this move by the Cubs seems like a terrible one. I understand completely. It wasn't a high percentage play, but it also wasn't completely out of the realm of possibility that the Cubs could've gone a streak or the Astros lost 8 out of 10. Even though the chances weren't great, I appreciate that those in charge of actually winning baseball games didn't give up when you did.

 

Baseball is a funny game. Strange things happen. Keeping yourself open to that possibility is a wise thing to do when you are in charge of winning games, don't you think? Or would you suggest a form of moderate pessimism is the better way to go?

 

if the cubs were going to make up that kind of ground it wasn't going to be because they got a new set up man that could throw one scoreless inning three times a week.

 

regardless of whether you thought the cubs were in the race or not, the risk (wood getting hurt again or being delayed in 2006) so far outweighed any potential benefit (a set up guy who could throw three good innings a week), that it was a stupid move.

Really?

 

What would you be saying if the Cubs had pulled within 2 games of Houston by late September and were within striking distance in the last week of the season but had shut Wood down in early August? I mean its completely hypothetical, but it certainly was a possible outcome that Houston doesn't get as hot as they did, maybe one of their key starters gets injured, you never know. The only problem is that they shelved Wood early when they could have added him to their pen and the Cubs bullpen blew 4 games that they otherwise might not have if Kerry had been there. Cubs fans would have been screaming mad and rightfully so.

 

That is how a GM and manager must think when making personnel decisions. What happens to the Cubs chances if Oswalt pulls a groin? They owed it to Cubs fans to put their best 25 guys out on the field until their chances grew a bit worse. They did grow worse over the course of August and Wood was shut down.

 

They made the prudent and wise choice, just not the pessimistic one.

[CubsWin]

Isn't Wood in line to make his first start on the May 18, the game we are having our meetup?

I believe he is on track to make his first start on the 17th.

[UMFan83]

Wait, Kerry Wood still plays for the Cubs? Man this is like 1998 all over again!

[srbin84]

Isn't Wood in line to make his first start on the May 18, the game we are having our meetup?

I believe he is on track to make his first start on the 17th.

 

Unless the Cubs skip someone on the offday, and Z is first up the game after, the 17th is Marshall's start, and the 18th is Guzman's.

[UMFan83]

Isn't Wood in line to make his first start on the May 18, the game we are having our meetup?

I believe he is on track to make his first start on the 17th.

 

Unless the Cubs skip someone on the offday, and Z is first up the game after, the 17th is Marshall's start, and the 18th is Guzman's.

 

I'm assuming they want to keep Wood on his 5 day schedule and pitch him on his regular day May 17th, and push Marshall back a day until May 18. Either way, NSBB day will be fun

[abuck1220]

 

They made the prudent and wise choice, just not the pessimistic one.

 

it's may 7th, and wood hasn't pitched in a big league game b/c his rehab was delayed. i can't see how that makes the decision a wise one.

[CubfaninCA]

gotta love how the above average baseball fan, who knows more than the doctor's, who said wood wouldn't do any further damage to his arm,if he pitched.

That's not the point, and I suspect you know that.

 

The point is that the extra month delayed Wood's surgery and rehab. If he had had that extra month, he would have been pitching since mid-April.

 

huh? i was addressing someone suggesting they know more than cub doctors. i suspect you know that.

[CubsWin]

 

They made the prudent and wise choice, just not the pessimistic one.

 

it's may 7th, and wood hasn't pitched in a big league game b/c his rehab was delayed. i can't see how that makes the decision a wise one.

Well, first you would have to look at the example that I provided and agree that that was a viable possibility on August 1st. Next, you would have to try to not look at this situation with the 20/20 hindsight that you are looking at it with.

 

The Cubs have to try to win the games that are in front of them, right? That is all any team can do. You don't give up on a season just to try to ensure that Wood will be with the team in the middle of April instead of the middle of May the following year. In all likelihood what does one month of not having Wood in the rotation cost the Cubs? Two wins, maybe more, maybe less. Figure Kerry would have started 5 or 6 games in a month and the Cubs might win 3 or 4 of them. With his replacement pitcher they might win 1 or 2 of them. So we are talking about, on average, 2 less wins...maybe, right?

 

So are you telling me that Cubs management should make the pessimistic decision and give up on a season in late July/early August at the risk of possibly winning two less games the following season?

 

Remember, they are not guaranteed to win two less games. Kerry's replacement could do just as good as Kerry would have. Or Kerry could get injured all over again in spring training and not be there at all the following season. So they should give up on the possibilities of winning the season that they are currently playing to try to control an uncontrollable future season that is months away? Is that what you would have them do?

[CubsWin]

 

They made the prudent and wise choice, just not the pessimistic one.

 

it's may 7th, and wood hasn't pitched in a big league game b/c his rehab was delayed. i can't see how that makes the decision a wise one.

Well if that is all you are looking at, then, of course, you aren't going to see how that decision was a wise one.

The Cubs made the prudent and wise choice then, and it is still the prudent and wise choice today. Just because Oswalt didn't get injured, or the Astros didn't slow down and the Cubs didn't get hot, doesn't change any of it. We don't need to look far to remind ourselves how unpredictable baseball can be. Having Cubs management give up on the season in late July would have been the wrong thing to do for the Cubs and their fans.

 

This is the hingsight thing I was referring to in the previous post. You know now that the Astros didn't cool off and Oswalt didn't get injured and you are able to say I knew none of that stuff was going to happen anyway. If you truly intend to look at this fairly, then you must be willing to go back in time and look at things from the perspective that the Cubs management had on July 31st.

 

Also, if Lee doesn't get injured and the Cubs don't lose the last 6 games in a row, but instead go 5-1 and are in the thick of the division, we are all talking about how well the Cubs have done without Wood and Prior and how good they are going to be when they come back. If Rusch and Williams don't pull an el foldo and perform up to their average capabilities over the last couple of seasons, we would all be saying how well Marshall has done filling in for Wood and what a great decision it was to gamble on the Cubs coming back in August by keeping Wood around. We would all be grateful that the Cubs have management that is willing to believe in their team and doesn't pack it in in late July when things aren't looking so great.

 

In an honest discussion about this subject, we must be willing to set all of that recent history aside, and see things from an honest perspective. Based on your above quoted comments, it doesn't seem like you are doing that.

[NCCubFan]

The Cubs made the prudent and wise choice then, and it is still the prudent and wise choice today.

No, it wasn't. I'll grant you that the Cubs still had a slight (although not as realistic as you seem to think) chance of winning the Wild Card. Having Wood undergo surgery immediately wouldn't have been writing off the season, however, as you seem to think it would have been. As others have pointed out, Wood pitching in the setup role wasn't going to make or break the season. By delaying the surgery Wood needlessly missed time this year. There was no excuse for that delay. If he were still able to pitch in a starting role last year at that time then maybe you'd have a point, because then he could have made a difference. But not in the setup role.

[mhuber92211]

Wouldn't the knee surgey be the cause of the in season delay more then the fact that he pitched in the Pen last year? Even if he hadn't pitched in the Pen he still would have injured his knee and started on the DL

[CubsWin]

The Cubs made the prudent and wise choice then, and it is still the prudent and wise choice today.

No, it wasn't. I'll grant you that the Cubs still had a slight (although not as realistic as you seem to think) chance of winning the Wild Card. Having Wood undergo surgery immediately wouldn't have been writing off the season, however, as you seem to think it would have been. As others have pointed out, Wood pitching in the setup role wasn't going to make or break the season. By delaying the surgery Wood needlessly missed time this year. There was no excuse for that delay. If he were still able to pitch in a starting role last year at that time then maybe you'd have a point, because then he could have made a difference. But not in the setup role.

First things, first...Uncle Ned rules.

 

Now to your post. I'm clear that you disagree, but you failed to address any of the hypotheticals that I have laid out and the fact that there are no guarantees as to what Kerry's delayed return actually has cost the Cubs.

 

So here is another completely relevent hypothetical. Lets say the Cubs are in third place and four games back of the eventual wildcard winner come July 31st this season and all of a sudden Howry is out for the year, are you going to say, "Eh, he wouldn't have mattered anyway. No big loss", or are you going to say, "This injury will make it that much tougher to catch the team in front of us and make up those 4 games"? I'm guessing, if you are honest, it is the second one.

 

So now, you are in the exact same situation and Howry isn't injured, but you are given a choice...use Bobby Howry the rest of the year just like you have to this point or sit him and never pitch him again. If anyone answers that they would choose to sit him when all you are is 4 games out of the wildcard, they are lying to try to bolster an already weak argument.

 

The possible cost of having Kerry miss a month more than he might have the following season shouldn't come into play because the future is unknowable and a baseball team's job is to win the games in front of them. But for the sake of discussion, at the time, it was predictable that it keeping Kerry in the bullpen might cost the Cubs 2 wins this season. So the Cubs tried to win last year at the minimal cost of a possible...possible deficit of two wins the following season, and I'm glad they did.

 

Four games is not that hard to make up in two months time, is it? Are you that pessimistic? If you are, thats fine, but I'm glad that Hendry and Baker are not.

[CubsWin]

Wouldn't the knee surgey be the cause of the in season delay more then the fact that he pitched in the Pen last year? Even if he hadn't pitched in the Pen he still would have injured his knee and started on the DL

IIRC, he really only lost a couple of days from the knee surgery. He came back very quickly from that.

[Larry Horse]

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

 

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

 

:wink:

[srbin84]

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

 

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

 

:wink:

 

Agreed. I was against it too, but since it happened, I was interested to see how he would do in the role and was impressed with his performance.

[NCCubFan]

First things, first...Uncle Ned rules.

 

Now to your post. I'm clear that you disagree, but you failed to address any of the hypotheticals that I have laid out and the fact that there are no guarantees as to what Kerry's delayed return actually has cost the Cubs.

 

So here is another completely relevent hypothetical. Lets say the Cubs are in third place and four games back of the eventual wildcard winner come July 31st this season and all of a sudden Howry is out for the year, are you going to say, "Eh, he wouldn't have mattered anyway. No big loss", or are you going to say, "This injury will make it that much tougher to catch the team in front of us and make up those 4 games"? I'm guessing, if you are honest, it is the second one.

 

So now, you are in the exact same situation and Howry isn't injured, but you are given a choice...use Bobby Howry the rest of the year just like you have to this point or sit him and never pitch him again. If anyone answers that they would choose to sit him when all you are is 4 games out of the wildcard, they are lying to try to bolster an already weak argument.

 

The possible cost of having Kerry miss a month more than he might have the following season shouldn't come into play because the future is unknowable and a baseball team's job is to win the games in front of them. But for the sake of discussion, at the time, it was predictable that it keeping Kerry in the bullpen might cost the Cubs 2 wins this season. So the Cubs tried to win last year at the minimal cost of a possible...possible deficit of two wins the following season, and I'm glad they did.

 

Four games is not that hard to make up in two months time, is it? Are you that pessimistic? If you are, thats fine, but I'm glad that Hendry and Baker are not.

I view myself as being realistic at that time last year, not pessimistic. There may have been only four games to make up, but the Cubs were also behind several teams in the Wild Card race (I don't recall how many) and they were showing no signs of an extended period of good play. And the trading deadline had come and gone, so the likelihood of getting help was not very high. Therefore I (and a lot of other posters, judging from the number of complaints at the time) felt that the Cubs were MORE likely to compete this year than last, and therefore it was more important to have Wood ready for this year than pitching longer last year. I'm not questioning the doctors who said there was no risk of further injury, just saying that the surgery should have taken place immediately so he could start his rehabilitation sooner.

 

And until you mentioned it I'd totally forgotten that Ned was also known as Uncle Ned; I remember him as Master Ned.

[LoneStarCubFan]

So when Wood comes back do you think Dusty will have him play first base and move Walker back to second or will he leave Walker at first and have Wood play second? And where will he hit in the order?

[neely crenshaw]

-i am very sad that this season has already fallen to the point that once again we are waiting, hoping and praying for wood/prior to be healthy in order to save us...and it'sonly may 8

[Jon]

First things, first...Uncle Ned rules.

 

Now to your post. I'm clear that you disagree, but you failed to address any of the hypotheticals that I have laid out and the fact that there are no guarantees as to what Kerry's delayed return actually has cost the Cubs.

 

So here is another completely relevent hypothetical. Lets say the Cubs are in third place and four games back of the eventual wildcard winner come July 31st this season and all of a sudden Howry is out for the year, are you going to say, "Eh, he wouldn't have mattered anyway. No big loss", or are you going to say, "This injury will make it that much tougher to catch the team in front of us and make up those 4 games"? I'm guessing, if you are honest, it is the second one.

 

So now, you are in the exact same situation and Howry isn't injured, but you are given a choice...use Bobby Howry the rest of the year just like you have to this point or sit him and never pitch him again. If anyone answers that they would choose to sit him when all you are is 4 games out of the wildcard, they are lying to try to bolster an already weak argument.

 

The possible cost of having Kerry miss a month more than he might have the following season shouldn't come into play because the future is unknowable and a baseball team's job is to win the games in front of them. But for the sake of discussion, at the time, it was predictable that it keeping Kerry in the bullpen might cost the Cubs 2 wins this season. So the Cubs tried to win last year at the minimal cost of a possible...possible deficit of two wins the following season, and I'm glad they did.

 

Four games is not that hard to make up in two months time, is it? Are you that pessimistic? If you are, thats fine, but I'm glad that Hendry and Baker are not.

The hypothetical is irrelevent since the argument seems to be about the team's future. It's also not plausible. If Howry had an injury requiring surgery, I'd definitely shut him down. He's got 2 years left on his contract and will be much more valuable to his team during a period of a month next season than he would during the same period this season (just like Wood, only Wood would be significantly more valuable after surgery).

 

In 12 IP, what's the difference between a good ERA and a bad ERA? 3 earned runs? There's a good chance that won't even make a difference between two wins or losses. Baseball is all about the weighing the present and the future. That is what the GM's job is and Hendry made the decision to keep Wood in there. He obviously considered the future when he made that decision, but grossly misunderstood the downside to the decision. There is absolutely no way the future can be ignored. Would you say that it doesn't matter how far out of the Wild Card the team is? Would you also say that a slightly more productive veteran with absolutely no future with the team should be playing over a high-ceiling rookie in that scenario who, if played, will result in three fewer runs over that stretch? At some point, the only way to ignore the future would be to take Dusty's approach and cite a responsibility to the game to field the best team despite being out of it.

 

It's also worth pointing out that half-way through August, the Cubs were 5 games under .500. Houston was 10 games over. And yet they continued to keep Wood in the bullpen for 2 more weeks.

 

As for your post before about Hendry receiving praise about the decision if the Cubs were winning right now, I don't think you could be further from the truth. The same people who have been bashing the move, of which I am one, have been doing so consistently since it was made. That includes before the season started, before Prior was shut down, and before Hendry completed his offseason. In context, it was a terrible decision. In isolation, it still was a terrible decision.

 

The potential downside to keeping Wood pitching out of the bullpen was significantly greater than the potential benefit. It showed absolutely no vision of the team's future, which, not coincidentally, has been a problem for this organization.

[cubfan1955]

Someone will call you a pessimist instead of a realist if you give up on a team that is 15 games out with 16 to go because mathematically it's still possible. I just don't think it's good to have a guy pitching that is injured, especially a guy that can't stay healthy when he is pitching and he isn't injured. And I don't care what the doctor said. If you are pitching you are risking injury and if you are pitching injured you are really pushing your luck. There was just very little to gain and a whole lot to lose by pitching Wood out of the bullpen.

[CubsWin]

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

 

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

 

:wink:

And the funny thing is, I will only stick to my guns until someone can poke holes in the logic surrounding their decision.

[goonys evil twin]

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

 

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

 

:wink:

And the funny thing is, I will only stick to my guns until someone can poke holes in the logic surrounding their decision.

 

The holes have been poked, your refusal to acknowledge that doesn't mean they don't exist.

[abuck1220]

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

 

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

 

:wink:

And the funny thing is, I will only stick to my guns until someone can poke holes in the logic surrounding their decision.

 

sarcasm?

[CubsWin]

The hypothetical is irrelevent since the argument seems to be about the team's future.

Uh, Jon, I only set it in the future for the fun of it. It is the exact same scenario the Cubs faced on July 31st last season so it is completely relevent. It couldn't be a more relevent hypothetical.

 

It's also not plausible.

Well, oddly enough, it is almost the exact same situation (just change a few minor details) the Cubs faced with Wood last season, who was the Cubs best right-handed set-up man at the time just like Howry is now. So for all intents and purposes, it is completely plausible.

 

According to the doctors, Kerry wouldn't be further damaged if allowed to pitch with the rotator fraying. He just would have to deal with the discomfort which would get a lot easier if he is only pitching an inning instead of 6 or 7 innings. So, basically, the Cubs were presented with the exact same choice on July 31st last season that you have called not plausible.

 

You are 4 games back of the wildcard with two months to play. Anything can happen. You are given the choice of sitting your best set up man (last season Wood, this season Howry) or not sitting him and putting your best 25 on the field to try to get into the playoffs. What would you choose?

 

In 12 IP, what's the difference between a good ERA and a bad ERA? 3 earned runs? There's a good chance that won't even make a difference between two wins or losses.

Where do you get 12 IPs? Is that the amount of innings your best set up will pitch in two months? Because that is the potential difference Kerry would have made, not 12 innings. I don't know where you got that.

 

Baseball is all about the weighing the present and the future. That is what the GM's job is and Hendry made the decision to keep Wood in there.

I thought baseball and the GM's job was about winning games.

 

Would you say that it doesn't matter how far out of the Wild Card the team is?

No, Jon. That's why I mentioned that they were only 4 games out with two months to play. Come on, let's have an honest discussion, okay?

 

If they were more games back with less time to play, of course it would make a difference. It obviously did make a difference to Cubs management because they chose to shut him down on August 31st. I probably would have done it a week or so earlier, but now we are talking about a 1-2 weeks difference instead of a month. The potential impact of Kerry Wood not being with the team the next season for a period of one to two weeks is rather negligible, don't you think?

 

It's also worth pointing out that half-way through August, the Cubs were 5 games under .500. Houston was 10 games over. And yet they continued to keep Wood in the bullpen for 2 more weeks.

Here, we agree. So if you want to blame Hendry and Baker for having Kerry miss a week or two more this season than was absolutely necessary, I will gladly join you.

 

As for your post before about Hendry receiving praise about the decision if the Cubs were winning right now, I don't think you could be further from the truth. The same people who have been bashing the move, of which I am one, have been doing so consistently since it was made.

I didn't mean those of you who have been bashing the move from the beginning, I meant Cubs fans in general. If other things hadn't gone wrong (Rusch and Williams collapsing, Lee injury, Ramirez and Pierre underperforming), the Cubs would be in a much better place right now and Marshall would ostensibly be replacing Wood. Many people would look at this move as a decent gamble to take to give the Cubs their best chance of winning last season and that it has had very little to no impact on the results of the Cubs this season given Marshall's excellent performance. Unfortunately, a lot of other unrelated and unexpected things have gone wrong and so here we are.

 

The potential downside to keeping Wood pitching out of the bullpen was significantly greater than the potential benefit.

The potential downside is what...two fewer wins to date this season, maybe? The potential upside was giving the Cubs and their fans their best chance of getting into the playoffs and winning a World Series. Unless you are seeing a different downside, I don't see how you are justifying the above statement.

[CubsWin]

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

 

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

 

:wink:

And the funny thing is, I will only stick to my guns until someone can poke holes in the logic surrounding their decision.

 

sarcasm?

No, honesty.

 

I mean it. I didn't base my opinion of this move on anything other than the logic at the time the decision was made. To base it on anything else, anything including any hindsight would be unfair.

 

If someone can engage the facts and logic that I have laid out and show how it is either incomplete or faulty, I will gladly alter my opinion.