New Article: Don't Panic

[USSoccer]

Wait til Walker and Cedeno cool off, which they will, since they can't possibly sustain their current numbers. Wait til we hit a stretch of LHP and we effectively have Jose Macias in RF. This offense is going to be brutal. If Hendry has a panic button he should push it now.

 

Wait til Ramirez heats up.

[rawaction]

If you had used stats to prove your hypothetical, it would have been even more out there. Now you're asking me to use stats to "prove" mine?

 

Use your common sense. The Cubs are 61 years out from their last World Series. Yet you believe *THIS* ballclub, with Prior & Wood on the shelf, would have gone to the World Series last year where all others have failed? Come on. Who are you trying to kid?

 

If all the Cubs players repeat what they did last year in 06 vs. Astros in 05.

 

CF- Tavarez (.666 OPS) vs. Pierre (.688 OPS, career .729)

SS- Everett (.654 OPS) vs. Cedeno (1st year, but fair to say he should surpass that)

2B- Biggio (.793 OPS) vs. Walker (.829)

C- Ausmus (.682 OPS) vs. Barrett (.824)

LF- including 46 games by Berkman out there (.698 OPS) vs. Murton (1st full year, but again, should easily surpass)

 

 

Houston's starters had a 3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 6.81 K/9, thanks to a very weak 4-5. Zambrano has been better than that for the last few years. Prior has better career numbers than that. Wood is likely to be at least within striking distance of that. Maddux still should be just behind Wood. Jerome Williams just behind that.

 

And as good as the Houston bullpen was in 05 (3.63 ERA, 8.39 K/9, 1.25 WHIP), the guys that the Cubs currently have in the pen (minus Aardsma, and using career averages for Williamson) combined to put up a 2.57 ERA, 8.38 K/9, and a 1.14 WHIP. That's enough to allow for lesser years and a mediocre 6th reliever (Aardsma, Wuertz, Novoa) and still be better than Houston.

[frostwyrm]

Wait til Walker and Cedeno cool off, which they will, since they can't possibly sustain their current numbers. Wait til we hit a stretch of LHP and we effectively have Jose Macias in RF. This offense is going to be brutal. If Hendry has a panic button he should push it now.

 

Wait til Ramirez heats up.

 

I'm sure he will, but it won't be nearly enough to offset the other stuff I mentioned plus Lee's absence.

[USSoccer]

Wait til Walker and Cedeno cool off, which they will, since they can't possibly sustain their current numbers. Wait til we hit a stretch of LHP and we effectively have Jose Macias in RF. This offense is going to be brutal. If Hendry has a panic button he should push it now.

 

Wait til Ramirez heats up.

 

I'm sure he will, but it won't be nearly enough to offset the other stuff I mentioned plus Lee's absence.

 

Ramirez and Pierre haven't heated up yet, and although Jones sucks, he doesn't quite suck as bad as he's shown. I think we can weather this, especially if we get better pitching.

[rawaction]

Prior and Wood will be very good WHEN they are able to pitch.

 

Maybe :)

 

Maddux looks to be primed for a good season.

 

Based on what, three starts? :D

 

Every single spot in the Cubs rotation should easily be better than Backe,

 

Based on what, three starts? :lol:

 

And Lidge is possibly the best Closer in the NL, but Dempster was better, in the closer's role, last season.

 

OK, you lost ALL credibility there.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

Maddux looks to be good based on 3 starts, based on a contract year, based on his extra work put in this offseason. And you of all people shouldn't doubt that a 40+ yo pitcher could have a big year.

 

Dempster as Cubs closer last year. 58.1 IP, 46 hits, 12 ER, 53 Ks. 1.85 ERA. Lidge was not better than that.

[XZero771679666304]

Wait til Walker and Cedeno cool off, which they will, since they can't possibly sustain their current numbers. Wait til we hit a stretch of LHP and we effectively have Jose Macias in RF. This offense is going to be brutal. If Hendry has a panic button he should push it now.

 

Wait til Ramirez heats up.

 

Ramirez and even Jones. Pierre is just starting to get going. As bad as Jones is, he has been far worse than he usually is. It's not like the offense was firing on all cylinders or anything. To maintain the scoring pace, all that has to happen is for Ramirez, Jones and Pierre to heat up to even just their average production.

 

This team can stillscore enough to win, if the pitching is good. If the Cubs can keep themselves in the top half of the division until Wood and co. get back, they'll still have a good shot.

[frostwyrm]

Wait til Walker and Cedeno cool off, which they will, since they can't possibly sustain their current numbers. Wait til we hit a stretch of LHP and we effectively have Jose Macias in RF. This offense is going to be brutal. If Hendry has a panic button he should push it now.

 

Wait til Ramirez heats up.

 

I'm sure he will, but it won't be nearly enough to offset the other stuff I mentioned plus Lee's absence.

 

Ramirez and Pierre haven't heated up yet, and although Jones sucks, he doesn't quite suck as bad as he's shown. I think we can weather this, especially if we get better pitching.

 

Through a quirk of scheduling we've had very limited exposure to LHP thusfar, but that won't last. We're going to see just how bad Jones can be, and more LHP will hurt Walker and Pierre too. In any event I don't put much faith in Pierre to carry this offense or any other.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type=type2&sort=plateAppearances&split=31&season=2006

Edited April 21, 2006 by frostwyrm

[goonys evil twin]

This team can stillscore enough to win, if the pitching is good. If the Cubs can keep themselves in the top half of the division until Wood and co. get back, they'll still have a good shot.

 

 

Change the first good to great, and change the second good to outside.

[NCCubFan]

Use your common sense. The Cubs are 61 years out from their last World Series. Yet you believe *THIS* ballclub, with Prior & Wood on the shelf, would have gone to the World Series last year where all others have failed? Come on. Who are you trying to kid?

This ballclub, with Prior and Wood missing PART of the year, could have done very well. Remember, the 2003 team was below .500 in July and still won the division. This Cub team would not have won the division last year with all the injuries, but they could have tread water until July or August, then rallied to win the Wild Card and made big noise during the postseason. Comparing this year's team to last year's Astros is not at all a bad comparison; certainly not insane, as you think it is.

[rawaction]

This team can stillscore enough to win, if the pitching is good. If the Cubs can keep themselves in the top half of the division until Wood and co. get back, they'll still have a good shot.

 

 

Change the first good to great, and change the second good to outside.

 

Agreed. But the pitching has the potential to be great. And an outside shot while adding Lee and the financial ability to upgrade big midseason, is equal to a good shot to me.

[XZero771679666304]

Houston in 3rd in the NL in runs and 3rd in the NL in BA.

 

The Cubs are 11th in the NL in runs. Now they don't have Lee.

 

Houston has been playing the dregs of the NL so far (mostly at home in the offense box). We'll see how that holds up. Plus Ramirez, Jones and Pierre have yet to get going.

 

And for the record, Dempster's numbers as a closer last year were better (and much better so far this year) than Lidge's.

[NCCubFan]

This team can stillscore enough to win, if the pitching is good. If the Cubs can keep themselves in the top half of the division until Wood and co. get back, they'll still have a good shot.

 

 

Change the first good to great, and change the second good to outside.

If the first "good" is changed to "great," the second one remains "good." Great pitching would give the Cubs more than an outside shot.

[XZero771679666304]

This team can stillscore enough to win, if the pitching is good. If the Cubs can keep themselves in the top half of the division until Wood and co. get back, they'll still have a good shot.

 

 

Change the first good to great, and change the second good to outside.

 

I understand what you are saying, but STL and Houston aren't going to separate themselves from the pack much. All the Cubs have to do is keep their heads above water until Wood and Co. get back. And the schedule for the next month or so is conducive to that.

[Guest]

Houston in 3rd in the NL in runs and 3rd in the NL in BA.

 

The Cubs are 11th in the NL in runs. Now they don't have Lee.

The Cubs are 2nd in the NL in ERA without Prior, Miller, or Wood.

 

And I stand by my assertion that one player can only make so much of a difference no matter how good he is. In 2005, for example, Lee produced about 65 runs above an average player. So an MVP-caliber year, among the 50 greatest offensive seasons of all time, only gained the Cubs 6-7 more wins than they would have had if an average hitter had taken Lee's at-bats. (That's an average player that includes pitchers, mind you - if you replaced him with an average first baseman the difference would be even smaller.)

 

Now seven wins is a big deal... it's the difference between a .500 team and a team that has at least a decent shot at making the playoffs. I don't think losing Lee for a couple months in 2006 will be nearly that severe, however. For one thing Lee won't be missing 700 PA, he'll probably only miss 300 or so -- That cuts the difference to 3-4 games right there. There's also a strong possibility that Lee wouldn't have repeated his gaudy 2005 numbers, reducing the difference further. If Mabry, Neifi, and/or Perez can get hot (for them) for a month or two we gain back another game or so.

 

I don't have a problem with people thinking the Cubs playoff chances are slim now; I happen to agree with them. I just don't think that the Lee injury warrants someone dropping their expectations from "hopeful for playoff run" to "let's have a fire sale and rebuild for next season." Losing a couple games in the standings may be a huge difference come September, but as of now it's not sufficient reason to write off this team.

 

If the Cubs fail to make the playoffs this season it will be for reasons varied and numerous, not just the Lee injury.

[goonys evil twin]

This team can stillscore enough to win, if the pitching is good. If the Cubs can keep themselves in the top half of the division until Wood and co. get back, they'll still have a good shot.

 

 

Change the first good to great, and change the second good to outside.

If the first "good" is changed to "great," the second one remains "good." Great pitching would give the Cubs more than an outside shot.

 

Okay, then forget outside, and just change it to "a shot".

 

The Cubs do not have a good shot at making it. They are not, by any means, done, or facing an impossible task. But this was a mediocre offense with questionable pitching (capable of anywhere from bad to great) with Lee, and now they are a bad offense.

 

I understand the desire to look to the positives here, and to prevent over the top depression. But make no mistake, this is terrible news and extremely damaging to the Cubs already relatively slim chances. You're talking about a team that was nowhere near a surefire 90 win squad, and taking away the best player. And not only are you taking him away for 2-3 months, when you get him back the odds that he'll be at full strength are extremely low.

 

It's going to take great pitching, significant improvement from guys already on the team, possibly an out of nowhere emergence by a minor leaguer and definitely some sort of acquisition from outside the team in order to take this team where it needs to go.

[NCCubFan]

It's going to take great pitching, significant improvement from guys already on the team, possibly an out of nowhere emergence by a minor leaguer and definitely some sort of acquisition from outside the team in order to take this team where it needs to go.

I agree with these points; I'm just saying that I think there's a reasonable chance of this happening. Everything seemed to come together in 2003 (until game 6 of the NLCS), snd so far it seems like they have this year as well.

[goonys evil twin]

Now seven wins is a big deal... it's the difference between a .500 team and a team that has at least a decent shot at making the playoffs. I don't think losing Lee for a couple months in 2006 will be nearly that severe, however. For one thing Lee won't be missing 700 PA, he'll probably only miss 300 or so -- That cuts the difference to 3-4 games right there. There's also a strong possibility that Lee wouldn't have repeated his gaudy 2005 numbers, reducing the difference further.

 

Are those 7 wins the difference between a .500 team (81-81) and a .543 team (88-74)? That's a very large difference.

 

And I think you're making a huge mistake by just talking about him missing 2 months. He's not taking 2 months to work out with a trainer. He broke bones in his wrist. I didn't think he was going to repeat his 2005 numbers. But when he returns the odds are his numbers will be even worse. We'll be lucky to get a 900 OPS out of him down the stretch upon his return.

[frostwyrm]

Houston in 3rd in the NL in runs and 3rd in the NL in BA.

 

The Cubs are 11th in the NL in runs. Now they don't have Lee.

 

Houston has been playing the dregs of the NL so far (mostly at home in the offense box). We'll see how that holds up. Plus Ramirez, Jones and Pierre have yet to get going.

 

And for the record, Dempster's numbers as a closer last year were better (and much better so far this year) than Lidge's.

 

Check the link below. Cubs are well below average in # of PA's vs. LHP. Only 20.76% of the Cubs PA's have come vs. LHP thusfar. That won't last. As has been pointed out, the NL Central has a lot of LH SP's. Walker is due for a cooldown anyway, and more LHP will hasten it, and Jones is just plain awful vs. LHP. Pierre's not too good either.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type=type2&sort=plateAppearances&split=31&season=2006

[goonys evil twin]

It's going to take great pitching, significant improvement from guys already on the team, possibly an out of nowhere emergence by a minor leaguer and definitely some sort of acquisition from outside the team in order to take this team where it needs to go.

I agree with these points; I'm just saying that I think there's a reasonable chance of this happening. Everything seemed to come together in 2003 (until game 6 of the NLCS), snd so far it seems like they have this year as well.

 

So far it seems like everything is coming together? Wood, Prior, Miller, Eyre and Lee are all hurt. Ramirez looks like crap. They're a few over .500 early, but you can't look at this team and say everything looks like it's coming together.

[neely crenshaw]

a couple things

one: pitching dominates early. hitting comes on as the weather heast up and pitchers start wearing down. our pitching has been evry good for the most part...BUT when hitting takes off will it be good enough to continue to hold down hitters? and will we have enough hitting when the hitters take over?questionable

second: prior was really bad the last 4 months of last year. his pitch counts were up(way up) he gave up bomb after bomb. there is absolutely no way to know if he will be that pitcher(who supposedly was healthy) or the old prior. there is a good chance he will never be the stud he was in 2003.

 

three: without rehashing this again, i certainly hope we all know better than to base our hopes on wood doing anything!

 

bottom line is the stros went last year. can not take it away from them.

everyone except pittsburgh,tampa and kc could go this year. so yes this team could go. they need a whole lot of things to break their way but it could happen. not very likely but it could happen.

[badgercub]

a couple things

one: pitching dominates early. hitting comes on as the weather heast up and pitchers start wearing down. our pitching has been evry good for the most part...BUT when hitting takes off will it be good enough to continue to hold down hitters? and will we have enough hitting when the hitters take over?questionable

second: prior was really bad the last 4 months of last year. his pitch counts were up(way up) he gave up bomb after bomb. there is absolutely no way to know if he will be that pitcher(who supposedly was healthy) or the old prior. there is a good chance he will never be the stud he was in 2003.

 

three: without rehashing this again, i certainly hope we all know better than to base our hopes on wood doing anything!

 

bottom line is the stros went last year. can not take it away from them.

everyone except pittsburgh,tampa and kc could go this year. so yes this team could go. they need a whole lot of things to break their way but it could happen. not very likely but it could happen.

 

"So you're saying we got a chance"

[goonys evil twin]

second: prior was really bad the last 4 months of last year.

 

He was 6-4 with a 3.89 ERA post all star break last year. How in the world is that "really bad"? He was coming off a broken freaking elbow, and came back as good as any reasonable person could expect.

[NCCubFan]

It's going to take great pitching, significant improvement from guys already on the team, possibly an out of nowhere emergence by a minor leaguer and definitely some sort of acquisition from outside the team in order to take this team where it needs to go.

I agree with these points; I'm just saying that I think there's a reasonable chance of this happening. Everything seemed to come together in 2003 (until game 6 of the NLCS), snd so far it seems like they have this year as well.

 

So far it seems like everything is coming together? Wood, Prior, Miller, Eyre and Lee are all hurt. Ramirez looks like crap. They're a few over .500 early, but you can't look at this team and say everything looks like it's coming together.

My comment wasn't meant from the perspective of the performance of individual players; it was meant from the perspective of the team winning over 60% of the games, including coming from behind to beat the Dodgers after Lee left the game. Everything you said about specific players is true. However, Maddux has been out of the world, Dempster has been lights out, Barrett and

Walker have hit very well, and Pierre and even Jones have shown signs of improvement the last couple of games. I'm not saying it's a given that this will continue (hence my use of the words "so far"), but I am saying it isn't much of a stretch to think it could continue, at least enough for the Cubs to tread water for a couple of months.

[srbin84]

second: prior was really bad the last 4 months of last year.

 

He was 6-4 with a 3.89 ERA post all star break last year. How in the world is that "really bad"? He was coming off a broken freaking elbow, and came back as good as any reasonable person could expect.

 

That's not really bad. It's about No.3/4 starter quality. He's probably just frustrated that in addition to that, Prior had a 4.02 ERA the year before. That's cause for concern for a guy who was once one of the better pitchers in the league.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

second: prior was really bad the last 4 months of last year.

 

He was 6-4 with a 3.89 ERA post all star break last year. How in the world is that "really bad"? He was coming off a broken freaking elbow, and came back as good as any reasonable person could expect.

 

That's not really bad. It's about No.3/4 starter quality. He's probably just frustrated that in addition to that, Prior had a 4.02 ERA the year before. That's cause for concern for a guy who was once one of the better pitchers in the league.

 

Number of NL starters with an ERA below 3.89 last year: 24

 

That must be quite the pitching staff for it to be 3/4 starter quality.