DMB, PECOTA, & ZiPS projections

[UK1679666180]

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/03/2006-diamond-mind-projection-blowout.html

 

Interesting projections, on par with how I feel how the Cubs will finish, I don't see STL with that many wins and the White Sox should have more wisn than that.

[Wilson A2000]

The White Sox are better on paper than they were last year. Barring injuries there is no way they finish in third place.

[soccer10k]

The White Sox are better on paper than they were last year. Barring injuries there is no way they finish in third place.

 

Agreed. Also, out of the three simulations, the highest number of average wins for the White Sox was 85 and the PECOTA actually had them finishing below .500.

 

They should also have a clause in there that automatically puts the Braves in first no matter what since they always end up winning the division anyway.

[CubinNY]

So according to the projections the Cubs have less than a 50 % chance of making the playoffs (@45%)?

 

That sounds about right to me.

 

Call me crazy, but I think the Sox finish a distant 3rd in their division. Last year everything broke right for them and they still had to hold off the Indians at the end of the season. They are not that good.

[Wilson A2000]

They are not that good? They are better than last year, won 100 gmaes, and lost one stinking game in the playoffs while getting rid of Marte and Frank and picked up Thome and Mackowiak and the SS from Arizona. I would trade the whole darn Cub team and Baker for the Sox and Guillen. They play as a team and play hard. You gotta love that.

[CubinNY]

They are not that good? They are better than last year, won 100 gmaes, and lost one stinking game in the playoffs while getting rid of Marte and Frank and picked up Thome and Mackowiak and the SS from Arizona. I would trade the whole darn Cub team and Baker for the Sox and Guillen. They play as a team and play hard. You gotta love that.

 

No I don't love that, but I do love the baseball cliches though.

 

The Sox had a great season last year. But last year has no bearing on this year. Thome will be hard pressed to put up Big Frank's numbers and Mackowiak? Is he good?

 

Guillien will self-destruct sooner or later and the pitching will not hold up.

Edited March 22, 2006 by CubinNY

[SouthSideRyan]

They are not that good? They are better than last year, won 100 gmaes, and lost one stinking game in the playoffs while getting rid of Marte and Frank and picked up Thome and Mackowiak and the SS from Arizona. I would trade the whole darn Cub team and Baker for the Sox and Guillen. They play as a team and play hard. You gotta love that.

 

Regression, regression, regression. And no I don't have to love a team full of douchebags that I wouldn't spit on if they were on fire.(With a few exceptions)

[Jon]

They wasted outs playing small ball before they hit HRs better than the Cubs, but I don't think that's playing as a team.

[ManEatingTarp]

Looks good on paper to me.

 

Of course that's why they play the games...

 

Looks like Oakland and the Dodgers might be pretty good this year.

[TruffleShuffle]

Don't these projections know that the Braves always win the NL East?

[noisesquared]

Thome will be hard pressed to put up Big Frank's numbers

 

Guillien will self-destruct sooner or later and the pitching will not hold up.

 

I'd take Thome every day of the week over Thomas and Everett at this stage of their careers. Over the last 5 years, Thome has only played less than 143 games once. In the last 5 years Thomas has only played more than 73 games twice. Thomas is 38, Thome's 35. Thomas has only had 2 .900+ OPS healthy seasons since 1998. Thome has never had a healthy season as a full-time starter with a sub .929 OPS. Basically, since 1995, the only year Thome wasn't phenomonal was last year, when he was hurt.

 

And what Guillen did last year, seemed eerily similar to what LaRussa does in St Louis. So every year we expect the Cards to regress, and what happens? I, unfortunately, can envision the same w/ the Sox. Deep pitching staffs win divisions.