Astros have fewer questions in 2006

[Jimy is a misspell]

Astros have fewer questions in 2006

 

 

Jim Molony

 

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/n...tives&fext=.jsp

 

 

 

Edited to remove an entire article, which we do not allow at NSBB.

[Jimy is a misspell]

A bullpen of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, Russ Springer, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller and Astacio probably would have to be considered the best in baseball.

[rawaction]

1. What will the Astros get out of the 3-4-5 spots of the rotation?

2. Is Preston Wilson healthy and will he be able to produce?

3. Will Berkman's knee stay healthy?

4. How much does Biggio have left?

5. Which Morgan Ensberg will show up? Does he have Hidalgo every-other-year disease?

6. Can Everett and Ausmus hit at all?

 

The Astros have a lot of questions. They'll have a very good defense and a good bullpen. But they have questions at nearly every spot in their lineup (except when Berkman's healthy). Clemens' loss is huge. Pettitte is not as good as he pitched last year.

[Jimy is a misspell]

1. What will the Astros get out of the 3-4-5 spots of the rotation?

2. Is Preston Wilson healthy and will he be able to produce?

3. Will Berkman's knee stay healthy?

4. How much does Biggio have left?

5. Which Morgan Ensberg will show up? Does he have Hidalgo every-other-year disease?

6. Can Everett and Ausmus hit at all?

 

The Astros have a lot of questions. They'll have a very good defense and a good bullpen. But they have questions at nearly every spot in their lineup (except when Berkman's healthy). Clemens' loss is huge. Pettitte is not as good as he pitched last year.

 

1. Backe – Good big game pitcher, hasn’t been able to sustain it over the course of the season thus far. Very popular here in Houston, but is a stretch as a #3 starter IMHO. More like a solid #4, but still young so maybe he will continue to improve.

Wandy Rodriquez is likely your #4. Probably expect somewhere around 13 wins +/-3, with an ERA in the 4s. Not dominating stuff, needs to avoid the big inning. I guess, in today’s era, is a decent back end rotation guy.

#5 will either go to Astocacio, Hernandez, or Buckholz. Astacio you guys saw last year. Hernandez is the kid who came on like gangbusters about 3 or 4 years ago, then blew up his shoulder sliding headfirst into second base. He’s been working ever since to get his arm back, apparently had to completely change his approach on the bump. He has gotten some of his velocity back, but will be hurt by his time away for the WBC Venezuela club. Buckholz has the most raw talent of the group, but he’s coming off an injury and has looked tentative this spring. Might be a little green.

 

Overall, I give the #3 starter a solid “C+”, #4 a “C-/D+“, and #5 an incomplete.

 

2. Good question. Seems to be but who really knows.

 

3. He is so much better at this point, from a pain standpoint, than he was at any time last season. He has arthroscopic to remove some additional BS, and apparently is has really helped. He should return to his pre 2005 form, around .300/30/100. Pick this guy up in your fantasy drafts, he will likely drop below market value and could be a steal.

 

4. You get exactly what you had last year. Decent pop, streaks of greatness, likely will tire out for long stretches. Still an effective player. Expect to see Burke more, whether at 2B, SS or LF.

 

5. Remember that last year was his first real healthy year.

 

6. Ausmus was the best hitter on the team last year after the break. Probably will end up around .240. Everett, well, he can’t be any worse than last year. I’m off the mind set that his glove more than makes up for his bat, but a lot of people disagree. Either way, expect to see Burke some at short.

 

‘Stros have as good of a 1, 2 as any rotation in baseball, to go along with their great pen. And who knows, Clemens may just be back come early summer. If the ‘stros are in the hunt, I would almost count on it.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Back in January, I had this to say about the Astros.

 

The Astros still have work to do. If Clemens returns in May, they will be lots better. The top of the rotation is good with Oswalt and Pettitte. Backe isn't a bad #3, but there are huge question marks at the lower end of the rotation. The bullpen will be good for them, but the offense will still stuggle. They also have to still settle some issues with Bagwell and even if they do get the insurance money, is there anyone to spend it on? An outfield of Preston Wilson-Willy Taveras-Jason Lane just isn't impressive. Also, which Morgan Ensberg will appear? Will it be the stud from 2005 or the below average hitter of 2004? My guess is an 84 win season for the Astros. Clemens returning and pitching well could push that up to an 88-90 win season.

 

I'll reiterate that I don't think the Astros will be a bad team, but I don't think they are that good either. The line-up will put a lot of pressure on the pitching. While Oswalt and Pettitte are capable of winning a number of 2-1, 3-2 ,1-0 games, I think Backe, Wandy, and whoever is in the fifth spot will need more offensive support. The bullpen will be a strength, but only if the offense can give a lead to protect. I'm not too certain of that.

 

I'm guessing the line-up will be:

 

Biggio 2b

Everett SS

Berkman 1b

Wilson RF

Ensberg 3b

Lane LF

Taveras CF

Ausmus C

 

That's a below average offense. Berkman is solid and Biggio should still get on base, but Everett, while defensively good is a black hole offensively.

 

Wilson has posted OPS + of 103, 69, 115 from 2005-2003. He's 31, so a return to his prime isn't likely. I'd guess an OPS+ in the 100-105 range. Lane will provide some punch, but the bottom third of the line-up is abysmal.

 

They'll need more pitching. Clemens returning is the only thing that would make the Astros contenders in August and September.

Edited March 21, 2006 by vance_the_cubs_fan

[SouthSideRyan]

You forgot Ensberg Vance.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

You forgot Ensberg Vance.

 

Like he makes a difference.. :lol: J/k.

 

(I'll go back and edit)

[jjgman21]

A bullpen of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, Russ Springer, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller and Astacio probably would have to be considered the best in baseball.

 

Lidge is outstanding and everyone knows it, and Qualls looks to be a very solid set up man, but the Astros need Gallo and Wheeler to again pitch way over their head. Springer is absolutely nothing special. and bring that Astacio kid and his 23 HRs allowed in 100 innings work on.

 

in other words, there is a huge potential for a complete bullpen disaster in Houston, especially with replacing Clemens's 211 innings with bottom of the rotation garbola.

[ManEatingTarp]

A bullpen of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, Russ Springer, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller and Astacio probably would have to be considered the best in baseball.

 

Lidge is outstanding and everyone knows it, and Qualls looks to be a very solid set up man, but the Astros need Gallo and Wheeler to again pitch way over their head. Springer is absolutely nothing special. and bring that Astacio kid and his 23 HRs allowed in 100 innings work on.

 

in other words, there is a huge potential for a complete bullpen disaster in Houston, especially with replacing Clemens's 211 innings with bottom of the rotation garbola.

 

There's a huge potential for a complete bullpen disaster for every team. I'm convinced that bullpens are the hardest part of a ballclub to assemble. I remember a few 90s era Cardinal teams that were supposed to have great bullpens. They were great. Great at pouring gasoline on fires...

 

My point is that I don't think anyone can predict middle relievers. Closers yes, but not the guys inbetween the starter and the 27th out.

[astrosfan34]

I'll take a stab at these questions.

 

1. What will the Astros get out of the 3-4-5 spots of the rotation?

 

First off, I think Roger Clemens is going to come back. But if he doesn't:

Brandon Backe is a guy who has shown tremendous big game ability, but has yet to develop into a consistent starter. Personally, I think this is the year he does it. He has tremendous heart, that is for sure.

 

Wandy Rodriguez settled in in terms of wins near the end of last year, but he was also in the league leaders in terms of run support. Wandy has shown the ability to be dominant, and I think he will make a decent number 4 starter with 12-15 wins and a 3.20-3.50 ERA.

 

As for the fifth starter, I don't think it will be Ezequiel Astacio. It'll have to be Buchholz, Nieve, or Hirsh, because I have no confidence in Astacio.

 

2. Is Preston Wilson healthy and will he be able to produce?

I don't know. My hunch is yes, but the Astros have other outfield options should he fail.

 

3. Will Berkman's knee stay healthy?

Yes. He hasn't shown a history of major injuries, and it's safe to say he won't play flag football again anytime soon. I think he will be a candidate for NL MVP this year.

 

4. How much does Biggio have left?

Craig Biggio has been getting better every year since 2002. He's learned to take advantage of the cheap home runs to left field (and yes, they are very cheap) and poke the ball into the Crawford Boxes. He's not solid defensively, but I think he will be a good run producer. I think he's got 2-3 years left.

 

5. Which Morgan Ensberg will show up? Does he have Hidalgo every-other-year disease?

I think he'll be solid. Not as crazy as last year, but I think he's one of the top third basemen in the National League. If he would just pick a frigging stance.

 

6. Can Everett and Ausmus hit at all?

No, they can't. I think Everett will be a little better this year (he was dealing with a lot personally last year that he won't be dealing with this year), but Ausmus will fall back to earth.

 

Any offense from those two, however, is pure bonus. They make up for it with their tremendous defense. Everett is the best defensive SS in baseball, and Ausmus is one of the league's top game-callers. Roger Clemens says that Ausmus is a huge reason for his success in Houston.

 

As for the pen-it's one of the best. I think Qualls, Wheeler and Lidge could very easily make Astros games last only 6 innings on most nights. Springer is unreliable, I have no idea about Miller, and I have no faith in Mike Gallo. But none of them will have a game on their shoulders usually.

 

I think the Astros will be much better than they were last year.

[XZero771679666304]

 

I think the Astros will be much better than they were last year.

 

That's pretty optimistic.

 

I have two main reasons that I disagree.

 

1. Clemens may not come back, and even if he does, it wont be until June at the earliest (according to his agent), and there's no guarantee it will be to the Astros.

 

2. Andy Pettitte had the best year of his career last year, and it is highly unlikely he repeats his 2005 performance. His 2005 numbers were so much better than his career norms that they almost have to be considered anomalous, especially at his age.

 

The bottom line is that Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte all had career years in 2005, and at the very least have some regression from Clemens (who you will have two months less of at least), and Pettitte. If Berkman stays healthy and Wilson performs at all, you guys might be as good as you were last year. Ensberg had a breakout year, but he is actually too old for that to be considered natural progression, so regression from him is quite possible.

 

And the statement earlier in the thread about the Astros possibly having the best bullpen in baseball is pure fantasy. Outside of Lidge and Qualls, the bullpen is average at best.

 

Hell, if Dempster stays healthy, you probably don't have the best bullpen in the division.

 

The potential is there for the Astros to be better than last season, but it is equally likely they will be considerably worse.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'll take a stab at these questions.

 

1. What will the Astros get out of the 3-4-5 spots of the rotation?

 

First off, I think Roger Clemens is going to come back. But if he doesn't:

Brandon Backe is a guy who has shown tremendous big game ability, but has yet to develop into a consistent starter. Personally, I think this is the year he does it. He has tremendous heart, that is for sure.

 

Wandy Rodriguez settled in in terms of wins near the end of last year, but he was also in the league leaders in terms of run support. Wandy has shown the ability to be dominant, and I think he will make a decent number 4 starter with 12-15 wins and a 3.20-3.50 ERA.

 

As for the fifth starter, I don't think it will be Ezequiel Astacio. It'll have to be Buchholz, Nieve, or Hirsh, because I have no confidence in Astacio.

 

2. Is Preston Wilson healthy and will he be able to produce?

I don't know. My hunch is yes, but the Astros have other outfield options should he fail.

 

3. Will Berkman's knee stay healthy?

Yes. He hasn't shown a history of major injuries, and it's safe to say he won't play flag football again anytime soon. I think he will be a candidate for NL MVP this year.

 

4. How much does Biggio have left?

Craig Biggio has been getting better every year since 2002. He's learned to take advantage of the cheap home runs to left field (and yes, they are very cheap) and poke the ball into the Crawford Boxes. He's not solid defensively, but I think he will be a good run producer. I think he's got 2-3 years left.

 

5. Which Morgan Ensberg will show up? Does he have Hidalgo every-other-year disease?

I think he'll be solid. Not as crazy as last year, but I think he's one of the top third basemen in the National League. If he would just pick a frigging stance.

 

6. Can Everett and Ausmus hit at all?

No, they can't. I think Everett will be a little better this year (he was dealing with a lot personally last year that he won't be dealing with this year), but Ausmus will fall back to earth.

 

Any offense from those two, however, is pure bonus. They make up for it with their tremendous defense. Everett is the best defensive SS in baseball, and Ausmus is one of the league's top game-callers. Roger Clemens says that Ausmus is a huge reason for his success in Houston.

 

As for the pen-it's one of the best. I think Qualls, Wheeler and Lidge could very easily make Astros games last only 6 innings on most nights. Springer is unreliable, I have no idea about Miller, and I have no faith in Mike Gallo. But none of them will have a game on their shoulders usually.

 

I think the Astros will be much better than they were last year.

 

So, bascially you give the best case scenario for every question.

 

Let me do that for the Cubs:

 

1. What will get out of Juan Pierre?

 

Pierre will have a superb season. He'll be able to use the high grass to create more bunt hits, he'll thrive with Ramirez and Lee hitting behind him and prove that last year was a fluke decline. He'll post a 370+ OBP from the lead-off spot.

 

2. Is Dempster for real?

 

Dempster came into his own as a closer last year and has finally found his niche. Hitters' agressiveness late in games will continue to help him get players to swing and miss at his sliders out of the zone. There's no reason he doesn't get 40+ saves this year.

 

3. What can we expect out of Jacque Jones?

 

Dusty Baker has a reputation for getting the most out of his vets and Jones will be no exception. Jones will no longer have the pressure of being one of the features of the offense. His work with Tony Gwynn likely will help him reproduce his 2003 year where he hit over 300 with a 350 OBP.

 

4. What about the rotation?

 

Zambrano looks poised to take the next step to elite pitcher. He's in the best shape of his career. Maddux will be Maddux and post an ERA around 3.95 and win 15 games. Last season was an aberration. Rusch will be serviceable as a swing man. Williams is past his personal demons and will pitch like he did in 2003. He'll be solid as a fifth guy until Miller returns. Wood and Miller are throwing well and should be big time contributors by May. I see both returning to 2003 form and anchoring the rotation behind Zambrano and in front of Maddux. Prior, while suffering a slight setback, will return in May and show the promise he did in 2002-2003. All in all, the Cubs rotation will be among the best in baseball by the All-Star break.

 

5. Will Lee regress?

 

It's clear that Lee closed a major hole in his swing last season which resulted in his best year ever. He'll put up at least two more years like that before any decline happens.

 

6. What about the pen?

 

With Howry and Eyre added to Wuertz, Ohman, and Williams, the Cubs could have the best pen in the league.

 

When all that happens, the Cubs will be tough to beat!

 

(Optimism is fun isn't it?)

[ltb]

Wandy Rodriguez settled in in terms of wins near the end of last year, but he was also in the league leaders in terms of run support. Wandy has shown the ability to be dominant, and I think he will make a decent number 4 starter with 12-15 wins and a 3.20-3.50 ERA.

 

wait.....what?

 

3.20-3.50 ERA for wandy?

 

i don't see that coming close to happening.

[treebird]

Wandy Rodriguez settled in in terms of wins near the end of last year, but he was also in the league leaders in terms of run support. Wandy has shown the ability to be dominant, and I think he will make a decent number 4 starter with 12-15 wins and a 3.20-3.50 ERA.

 

wait.....what?

 

3.20-3.50 ERA for wandy?

 

i don't see that coming close to happening.

 

that would be an amazing 4 starter

[ltb]

Wandy Rodriguez settled in in terms of wins near the end of last year, but he was also in the league leaders in terms of run support. Wandy has shown the ability to be dominant, and I think he will make a decent number 4 starter with 12-15 wins and a 3.20-3.50 ERA.

 

wait.....what?

 

3.20-3.50 ERA for wandy?

 

i don't see that coming close to happening.

 

that would be an amazing 4 starter

 

sure would.

i suppose pettitte is set to pitch 350 innings with an 0.85 era then

[treebird]

Wandy Rodriguez settled in in terms of wins near the end of last year, but he was also in the league leaders in terms of run support. Wandy has shown the ability to be dominant, and I think he will make a decent number 4 starter with 12-15 wins and a 3.20-3.50 ERA.

 

wait.....what?

 

3.20-3.50 ERA for wandy?

 

i don't see that coming close to happening.

 

that would be an amazing 4 starter

 

sure would.

i suppose pettitte is set to pitch 350 innings with an 0.85 era then

 

clemens isnt going to be back until june though, so i wouldnt expect any more than 225 innings from him

[Mike Scott]

So, bascially you give the best case scenario for every question.

 

Yeah...those outlooks look pretty damn optimistic to me. Honestly, I'm deathly afraid of the bottom of the rotation for Houston. I have no faith in Wandy. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if this team had a solid #3, bumping Backe and Rodriguez down a spot. Taylor Buchholz is impressing people but how many playoff teams have 4th and 5th starters without amazing arms and with little to no major league experience?? I can't stand Roger Clemens' antics but man would his return transform the rotation. The bullpen is going to get worked, especially since Backe is inconsistent.

 

With that said, I'm pretty optimistic about the other areas of the club. The defense, bench and bullpen should all be very good. I'm also optimistic about the offense. This club should easily score more runs than last year's team. Is that enough to offset the end of the rotation??? I'm skeptical but a return of the Rocket would change things dramatically.

[XZero771679666304]

So, bascially you give the best case scenario for every question.

 

Yeah...those outlooks look pretty damn optimistic to me. Honestly, I'm deathly afraid of the bottom of the rotation for Houston. I have no faith in Wandy. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if this team had a solid #3, bumping Backe and Rodriguez down a spot. Taylor Buchholz is impressing people but how many playoff teams have 4th and 5th starters without amazing arms and with little to no major league experience?? I can't stand Roger Clemens' antics but man would his return transform the rotation. The bullpen is going to get worked, especially since Backe is inconsistent.

 

With that said, I'm pretty optimistic about the other areas of the club. The defense, bench and bullpen should all be very good. I'm also optimistic about the offense. This club should easily score more runs than last year's team. Is that enough to offset the end of the rotation??? I'm skeptical but a return of the Rocket would change things dramatically.

 

I think your offense will definitely be better with Wilson and a full year of Berkman, even if Ensberg declines a bit from last year's numbers.

 

Another thing to consider is that 2005 Pettitte >> 2006 Pettitte, in all probability.

[rawaction]

So, bascially you give the best case scenario for every question.

 

Yeah...those outlooks look pretty damn optimistic to me. Honestly, I'm deathly afraid of the bottom of the rotation for Houston. I have no faith in Wandy. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if this team had a solid #3, bumping Backe and Rodriguez down a spot. Taylor Buchholz is impressing people but how many playoff teams have 4th and 5th starters without amazing arms and with little to no major league experience?? I can't stand Roger Clemens' antics but man would his return transform the rotation. The bullpen is going to get worked, especially since Backe is inconsistent.

 

With that said, I'm pretty optimistic about the other areas of the club. The defense, bench and bullpen should all be very good. I'm also optimistic about the offense. This club should easily score more runs than last year's team. Is that enough to offset the end of the rotation??? I'm skeptical but a return of the Rocket would change things dramatically.

 

I see a lot of HRs in Houston's lineup. Biggio and Wilson should hit over 20. Lane, Berkman, Ensberg all will hit 30+. The problem will come if they can't get on base enough. Houston's offense looks an awful lot like the 05 Cubs. They aren't likely to get over a .340 OBP from 6 players (all but Berkman and Ensberg). Everett and Ausmus have the potential to be as bad as Patterson and Neifi were last year (albeit at the bottom of the order instead of the top). Burnitz and Wilson are a wash at best for Houston. Lane and Biggio are Barrett and Walker with more power. But that is made up by Lee and Ramirez, who last year were a notch above anything Berk and Ensberg can possibly do this year. Their offense will be improved. I think they have a potentially great defense and bullpen. But their pitching carried them last year, and that will suffer without Clemens and with Pettitte likely not being as good as he was last year.

[Derwood]

No team can win with someone as ugly as Zeke Astacio

[SouthSideRyan]

No team can win with someone as ugly as Zeke Astacio

 

I guess Florida won't be beating George Mason then.

[Derwood]

No team can win with someone as ugly as Zeke Astacio

 

I guess Florida won't be beating George Mason then.

 

Noah is ugly, but not quite as ugly as Astacio. Noah's complexion doesn't resemble Jabba the Hutt's rear end.

[Mike Scott]

I think your offense will definitely be better with Wilson and a full year of Berkman, even if Ensberg declines a bit from last year's numbers.

 

Another thing to consider is that 2005 Pettitte >> 2006 Pettitte, in all probability.

 

Yeah...almost no way Pettitte matches what he did last year. Hopefully he'll pitch 200 inninngs. He and Oswalt need to be horses to keep the pen from being overworked. The rotation really worries me.

[Mike Scott]

No team can win with someone as ugly as Zeke Astacio

 

lol. You'll be happy to know that he's be assigned to AAA Round Rock. It looks like Buchholz has the 5th spot locked up. I keep praying that Steve Sparks is going to be released.

[Mike Scott]

 

I see a lot of HRs in Houston's lineup. Biggio and Wilson should hit over 20. Lane, Berkman, Ensberg all will hit 30+. The problem will come if they can't get on base enough. Houston's offense looks an awful lot like the 05 Cubs. They aren't likely to get over a .340 OBP from 6 players (all but Berkman and Ensberg). Everett and Ausmus have the potential to be as bad as Patterson and Neifi were last year (albeit at the bottom of the order instead of the top). Burnitz and Wilson are a wash at best for Houston. Lane and Biggio are Barrett and Walker with more power. But that is made up by Lee and Ramirez, who last year were a notch above anything Berk and Ensberg can possibly do this year. Their offense will be improved. I think they have a potentially great defense and bullpen. But their pitching carried them last year, and that will suffer without Clemens and with Pettitte likely not being as good as he was last year.

 

The lack of base on balls drawn are a worry. Hopefully Biggio will start taking a few more pitches again. Anybody know if there is statistical significance for older players to have such a dramatic decrease in drawing walks?

 

Taveras was definitely better in the minors drawing walks but he probably won't continue to hit .300. I'm hoping that he'll be able to get his OBP to .340 while doing a good job of moving runners over. I think that Lane will be able to get his OBP up as well now that he's comfortable at the major league level. You are right, the team's OBP is a problem but I'm optimistic that it will improve.