April Rotation

[BigbadB]

Why? With an 11 man staff they'd still start out with 7 relievers, which is more than enough. All those relievers would have built-in days off as well.

 

Because you need someone to be able to go long innings on short notice. In April, the winds blow out a lot. Do you want Maddux giving up 12 runs in 5 innings or do you want Jon Koronka giving up 12 runs in 5 innings? Do you want to tax the entire bullpen by making them all pitch extended innings in back to back games?

 

If the wind is blowing out, everyone outside of Zambrano can get torched. I'd rather see a scrub gobble up those innings rather than a much needed starter or bullpen arm.

[badgercub]

I was making is that their value to a team (an innings eater) is that they can take the ball every 5th day and give your bullpen a break. I never said they were the end all be all of your rotation.

 

But the fact is they don't take the ball every 5th day and they don't save the bullpen because they generally get pulled earlier. A guy who gives you 200 innings of crap pitching isn't necessarily saving a thing. The claim was that the Cubs are lucky to have Rusch because he's such a good innings eater, yet the evidence would indicate the exact opposite. He only starts on occasion, and he gets knocked out earlier than most pitchers, which puts a greater strain on the bullpen, not less.

 

Like I said, take Rusch out of the equation. In this discussion we have been talking about end of the rotation pitchers, which in reality are not going to be very good. Carlos Zambrano is an innings eater, Most of the elite pitchers are innings eaters, not just because they average 6+ innings a start, but they also miss very few games due to injury. So not only is Z a great pitcher, but also an "innings eater" Prior is a great pitcher, in my opinion, but he has not been an innings eater due to the fact that he hasn't been healthy all the time. It's not just innings per start.

[goonys evil twin]

Like I said, take Rusch out of the equation. In this discussion we have been talking about end of the rotation pitchers, which in reality are not going to be very good.

 

In actuality, this discussion was all about Rusch at the beginning. So taking him out is pointless.

[badgercub]

Like I said, take Rusch out of the equation. In this discussion we have been talking about end of the rotation pitchers, which in reality are not going to be very good.

 

In actuality, this discussion was all about Rusch at the beginning. So taking him out is pointless.

 

Initially Rusch was brought up, but then teh statement was made that "anyone" could be an innings eater.

[BigbadB]

Besides the high scoring games from high winds, you also have extra inning games, rain delays. One of your few starters could take a come backer that could knock them out of the game. It's just poor planning, IMO, to not have a guy in the bullpen that you can send out there for 4 or 5 innings.

 

Not to mention the fact you have Dusty Baker managing this club. Do you want to see him sending Williamson out there for more than an inning at a time? Did you see how Baker used Chad Fox last year?

[goonys evil twin]

Why? With an 11 man staff they'd still start out with 7 relievers, which is more than enough. All those relievers would have built-in days off as well.

 

Because you need someone to be able to go long innings on short notice. In April, the winds blow out a lot. Do you want Maddux giving up 12 runs in 5 innings or do you want Jon Koronka giving up 12 runs in 5 innings? Do you want to tax the entire bullpen by making them all pitch extended innings in back to back games?

 

If the wind is blowing out, everyone outside of Zambrano can get torched. I'd rather see a scrub gobble up those innings rather than a much needed starter or bullpen arm.

 

Let's say Maddux gets lit up in Game 2. They have a day off before and after that game. Going into Game 3, your relievers will have worked, at most, 2 games in 4 days. Spread among 7 guys, there will be plenty of innings. You then have 3 games in a row, with Zambrano likely pitching the middle one, and likely eating up some innings. And another off day. The need for a true longman is grossly overrated. Wasting a roster spot on a guy who can go 3-4 innings in a blowout loss the first week would be pretty silly. At the worst, you have Williams or Rusch available in the first few games, and if they have to go, you call somebody else up to get the start.

[BigbadB]

Let's say Maddux gets lit up in Game 2. They have a day off before and after that game. Going into Game 3, your relievers will have worked, at most, 2 games in 4 days. Spread among 7 guys, there will be plenty of innings. You then have 3 games in a row, with Zambrano likely pitching the middle one, and likely eating up some innings. And another off day. The need for a true longman is grossly overrated. Wasting a roster spot on a guy who can go 3-4 innings in a blowout loss the first week would be pretty silly. At the worst, you have Williams or Rusch available in the first few games, and if they have to go, you call somebody else up to get the start.

 

We'll just have to disagree on this one, Goony. Starters aren't in full season form at the beginning of the year. Letting Zambrano throw 120 pitches in the first few weeks is just asking for trouble.

[goonys evil twin]

Like I said, take Rusch out of the equation. In this discussion we have been talking about end of the rotation pitchers, which in reality are not going to be very good.

 

In actuality, this discussion was all about Rusch at the beginning. So taking him out is pointless.

 

Initially Rusch was brought up, but then teh statement was made that "anyone" could be an innings eater.

 

He wasn't brought up, he was what the discussion was about. And if people are calling Rusch an innings eater, then lots of guys can do it. If all you need is somebody to throw 6 innings of crappy ball, it's not hard to find. Signing a guy who will give you 6 innings 30 times a year with a 5.00 ERA only makes sense if he's dirt cheap.

 

Innings eaters are the proverbial girl with good personality. It's what you call a guy who isn't good but goes out there anyway. Managers get comfortable with certain guys and keep running them out there even though they suck and usually lose. They typically keep getting pulled early, which hurts your bullpen. The only guys who actually do help save your bullpen are your elite pitchers who stay healthy. Everybody else requires help. Guys like Shawn Estes who supposedly can eat innings, get pulled in the 2nd and 3rd so often that their ability to go every 5 days is worthless.

[goonys evil twin]

Let's say Maddux gets lit up in Game 2. They have a day off before and after that game. Going into Game 3, your relievers will have worked, at most, 2 games in 4 days. Spread among 7 guys, there will be plenty of innings. You then have 3 games in a row, with Zambrano likely pitching the middle one, and likely eating up some innings. And another off day. The need for a true longman is grossly overrated. Wasting a roster spot on a guy who can go 3-4 innings in a blowout loss the first week would be pretty silly. At the worst, you have Williams or Rusch available in the first few games, and if they have to go, you call somebody else up to get the start.

 

We'll just have to disagree on this one, Goony. Starters aren't in full season form at the beginning of the year. Letting Zambrano throw 120 pitches in the first few weeks is just asking for trouble.

 

When did I ask him to do it?

 

7 relievers is more than enough to eat up the innings caused by early departures. 2 off-days in 4 days makes it all that much easier, and the third 3 days later is the icing. If you have a guy who can do the job, great. But don't reserve a spot for a pitcher who would not be used otherwise. That's when you end up going with 8 relievers and completely wasting roster spots.

[stitchface]

the wind seldom blows out in april - not sure what makes you think it does. when its cold, the wind blows in. in summertime the prevailing west and south winds blow out.

[stitchface]

Let's say Maddux gets lit up in Game 2. They have a day off before and after that game. Going into Game 3, your relievers will have worked, at most, 2 games in 4 days. Spread among 7 guys, there will be plenty of innings. You then have 3 games in a row, with Zambrano likely pitching the middle one, and likely eating up some innings. And another off day. The need for a true longman is grossly overrated. Wasting a roster spot on a guy who can go 3-4 innings in a blowout loss the first week would be pretty silly. At the worst, you have Williams or Rusch available in the first few games, and if they have to go, you call somebody else up to get the start.

 

We'll just have to disagree on this one, Goony. Starters aren't in full season form at the beginning of the year. Letting Zambrano throw 120 pitches in the first few weeks is just asking for trouble.

 

When did I ask him to do it?

 

7 relievers is more than enough to eat up the innings caused by early departures. 2 off-days in 4 days makes it all that much easier, and the third 3 days later is the icing. If you have a guy who can do the job, great. But don't reserve a spot for a pitcher who would not be used otherwise. That's when you end up going with 8 relievers and completely wasting roster spots.

 

I have to agree with goony. History has shown that when given 12 pitchers, Dusty will let 1 or 2 of them go a full week without pitching while others will pitch everyday. The answer is more efficient use of the pen not more pitchers.

[sethuel1]

Nevermind, stitchface beat me to it. Guess I should read the whole thread before responding.

[BigbadB]

When did I ask him to do it?

 

I didn't say you asked him to do it. Dusty is the manager. I don't want Dusty taxing the few starters we have in April because he's afraid to use his bullpen. If you don't have to use the long man, great. But, he should be there for blow out games just the same.

[BigbadB]

the wind seldom blows out in april - not sure what makes you think it does. when its cold, the wind blows in. in summertime the prevailing west and south winds blow out.

 

Seldom doesn't mean never. In 2004, the Cubs and Reds had nearly back to back games in early April with an 11-10 win and a 11-10 loss. It only takes one game where the wind blows out to knock a starter out in the first couple of innings. But, it's not just occasional winds blowing out. It's the chance someone tweaks something, extra innings, rain delays. Rain delays happen a lot in April.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Seldom doesn't mean never. In 2004, the Cubs and Reds had nearly back to back games in early April with an 11-10 win and a 11-10 loss. It only takes one game where the wind blows out to knock a starter out in the first couple of innings. But, it's not just occasional winds blowing out. It's the chance someone tweaks something, extra innings, rain delays. Rain delays happen a lot in April.

 

Not that it means much to the conversation, but I recall the wind blowing IN for one, if not both of those games. I could be wrong though.

[goonys evil twin]

When did I ask him to do it?

 

I didn't say you asked him to do it. Dusty is the manager. I don't want Dusty taxing the few starters we have in April because he's afraid to use his bullpen. If you don't have to use the long man, great. But, he should be there for blow out games just the same.

 

He's going to use his starters long anyway. And he's going to waste the extra man anyway.

 

There's no benefit to having a long man just for having a long man. If he would have made the team otherwise, then fine. But don't throw Rich Hill in the back of the bullpen because you might need somebody to come in during the 3rd sometime in the first two weeks.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm thinking the rotation could be aligned as follows:

 

4/3 vs Reds- Zambrano

4/5 vs Reds- Maddux

4/7 vs Cardinals- Rusch

4/8 vs Cardinals- Williams

4/9 vs Cardinals- Zambrano (5 days rest)

4/11 vs Reds- Maddux (5 days rest)

4/12 vs Reds- Rusch (4 days rest)

4/13 vs Reds- Williams (4 days rest)

 

4/14 vs the Pirates the Cubs could bring Zambrano back on 4 days rest or insert a fifth starter here. If Zambrano pitches, a fifth would be needed the next day 4/15 vs the Pirates.

 

If Prior is only going to be set back two weeks from the original 4/5 target, he may be ready to go here. If not Guzman or Hill could spot start on one of those dates. Let's pencil in Guzman or Hill for the 15th and continue.

 

4/14 vs Pirates: Zambrano (4 days rest)

4/15 vs Pirates: Hill/Guzman

4/16 vs Pirates: Maddux (4 days rest)

4/17 vs Dodgers: Rusch (4 days rest)

4/18 vs Dodgers: Williams (4 days rest)

4/19 vs Dodgers: Zambrano (4 days rest)

4/21 vs Cardinals: Maddux (4 days rest)

4/22 vs Cardinals: Rusch (4 days rest)

4/23 vs Cardinals: Williams (4 days rest)

4/24 vs Marlins: Zambrano (4 days rest)

 

A fifth starter isn't needed again until the 4/25 game. Prior and maybe even Wood could be ready to step in at that game. It's also ten days following the 4/15 game, so whoever is called up for that one could be sent down to start at Iowa and recalled for the 4/25 game if Wood or Prior is not healthy.

 

This is far from an ideal situation as it doesn't take advantage of the early off days to give starters a rest. With the exception of Zambrano and Maddux's second starts, no pitcher receives any additional rest. But it does show that the Cubs can survive the month of April with four effective pitchers.

[TheDude]

Looks about right Vance. And thanks for steering the topic back to its intent.

[Soul]

So basically:

 

Zambrano

Maddux (2 months away from his best pitching)

Junk

Junk

Optional Junk

 

 

Get ready, it's going to be a long April.

[CubDad4Ever]

Great work V, i would not differ on that rotation a bit. I think the cubs are going to be okay. They certainly are well under the radar at this point. Whether they can get it done or not , is yet to be proven. Coach L

[goonys evil twin]

This is far from an ideal situation as it doesn't take advantage of the early off days to give starters a rest. With the exception of Zambrano and Maddux's second starts, no pitcher receives any additional rest.

 

And really, Zambrano and Maddux are the only ones you'd want to give the rest to. Hopefully Williams or Rusch will get their rest later, when a better pitcher takes their job. And if Prior or Wood can pitch at some point in mid-April, you can build more rest in for Zambrano.

[badgercub]

Like I said, take Rusch out of the equation. In this discussion we have been talking about end of the rotation pitchers, which in reality are not going to be very good.

 

In actuality, this discussion was all about Rusch at the beginning. So taking him out is pointless.

 

Initially Rusch was brought up, but then teh statement was made that "anyone" could be an innings eater.

 

He wasn't brought up, he was what the discussion was about. And if people are calling Rusch an innings eater, then lots of guys can do it. If all you need is somebody to throw 6 innings of crappy ball, it's not hard to find. Signing a guy who will give you 6 innings 30 times a year with a 5.00 ERA only makes sense if he's dirt cheap.

 

Innings eaters are the proverbial girl with good personality. It's what you call a guy who isn't good but goes out there anyway. Managers get comfortable with certain guys and keep running them out there even though they suck and usually lose. They typically keep getting pulled early, which hurts your bullpen. The only guys who actually do help save your bullpen are your elite pitchers who stay healthy. Everybody else requires help. Guys like Shawn Estes who supposedly can eat innings, get pulled in the 2nd and 3rd so often that their ability to go every 5 days is worthless.

 

I am actually agreeing with most of what you are saying. I never said Rusch was good, or Estes was good. My simple point was that an innings eater saves your bullpen. That was the only point I was trying to make. Whether you define Rusch or Estes as innings eaters is up to you. No need to be so combative.

[goonys evil twin]

I am actually agreeing with most of what you are saying. I never said Rusch was good, or Estes was good. My simple point was that an innings eater saves your bullpen. That was the only point I was trying to make. Whether you define Rusch or Estes as innings eaters is up to you. No need to be so combative.

 

It all comes down to how you define innings eater then. A guy who gives you 32 starts, 215 innings and a 4.50 ERA year after year definitely has value, and part of that is in "saving a bullpen" by routinely pitching into the 7th.

 

But all too often people give the innings eater qualification to just about any starter who doesn't get hurt a lot. But just because a guy is healthy enough to go out there when called upon doesn't necessarily mean he's got much value or saving your bullpen.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This is far from an ideal situation as it doesn't take advantage of the early off days to give starters a rest. With the exception of Zambrano and Maddux's second starts, no pitcher receives any additional rest.

 

And really, Zambrano and Maddux are the only ones you'd want to give the rest to. Hopefully Williams or Rusch will get their rest later, when a better pitcher takes their job. And if Prior or Wood can pitch at some point in mid-April, you can build more rest in for Zambrano.

 

Yes, but I'd love to get Zambrano more rest than what I projected he would get. It would be nice if Prior or Wood would be ready to take the ball on 4/14 giving Zambrano an extra day of rest. Also, if Prior or Wood could be ready then, it allows Maddux and Zambrano one more day of rest the next turn as well. The 14th is only nine days after Prior was originally expected to be ready to go. I'm uncertain if this shoulder thing will delay him to the point where he would not be ready by then. I really don't see Wood being ready by then at all. Has his knee not flared up, I had always hoped that was when Wood would first take the ball.

 

I think both Wood and Prior could be ready by the 25th. If so, maybe one would be ready by 4/24 and allow Zambrano an extra day of rest there as well.

[badgercub]

I am actually agreeing with most of what you are saying. I never said Rusch was good, or Estes was good. My simple point was that an innings eater saves your bullpen. That was the only point I was trying to make. Whether you define Rusch or Estes as innings eaters is up to you. No need to be so combative.

 

It all comes down to how you define innings eater then. A guy who gives you 32 starts, 215 innings and a 4.50 ERA year after year definitely has value, and part of that is in "saving a bullpen" by routinely pitching into the 7th.

 

But all too often people give the innings eater qualification to just about any starter who doesn't get hurt a lot. But just because a guy is healthy enough to go out there when called upon doesn't necessarily mean he's got much value or saving your bullpen.

 

I agree, you can have a crappy innings eater who may save you some innings in the bullpen but is not able to keep the game close enough to give you a chance to win.