Rumor - Murton for Soriano?

[CubfaninCA]

Where's Hoops at?? Haven't seen him around for a while with his trade rumors.

[Lefty]

I don't understand how a trade for a 30/30 player who drives in 100 runs for a rookie could be so bad. I know his plane discipline isn't great, and his numbers were elevated in Texas, but the guy can hit and run. And as much as I like Murton, he's all potential until he proves it in the bigs.

 

If you are unproductive at the plate, you can't hit. Soriano is unproductive. I don't care how good he looks.

 

Murton may not be the second coming, but he's the best we have, makes $9.5 million less than Soriano, and projects to hit at least a little. By your logic, you would never play a young player. Welcome to the board Dusty!

[rjchapma]

I don't know what you guys have against Soriano so much. I'm sorry I'd take someone who hits 30 homeruns and 100 RBIs any day. You have to realize hes not going to be a 2 hitter he'll be our 5 hitter. Those numbers look pretty damn nice at that position. If all we have to give up is Murton I'd take it in a second. By the way there is no way in hell Murton will hit 30 dongs. First off hes not going to play that much because we all no Dusty won't let him. I'd take my chances on Soriano striking out alot if we can add those power numbers into our lineup. This trade won't go down anyways though. At least it won't if we only give up Murton or Walker.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I don't know what you guys have against Soriano so much. I'm sorry I'd take someone who hits 30 homeruns and 100 RBIs any day. You have to realize hes not going to be a 2 hitter he'll be our 5 hitter. Those numbers look pretty damn nice at that position. If all we have to give up is Murton I'd take it in a second. By the way there is no way in hell Murton will hit 30 dongs. First off hes not going to play that much because we all no Dusty won't let him. I'd take my chances on Soriano striking out alot if we can add those power numbers into our lineup. This trade won't go down anyways though. At least it won't if we only give up Murton or Walker.

 

His OBP was .309 last year. Neifi with power minus defense. That's Soriano.

[UMFan83]

This scenario about Murton worries me:

 

-Shows unusual power during his first big league stint in 2005 (happened)

 

-A little birdie whispers into his ear "Dude we need you to hit more HRs, you know. If you want to stay in the big leagues, quit worrying about walking and practice hitting dingers dude"

 

-Bulks up over the winter, shows up to Cubs Convention unusually bigger (happened)

 

-Posts a .500 SLG in the thin Arizona air during Spring Training

 

-Come mid-June, is demoted to AAA Iowa after his 67th warning track out of the year. Completely loses his ability to get on base with line drives and walks

 

-June 2007, is traded to Baltimore to join the Orioles OF with the 2006 Comeback POY Corey Patterson

[rjchapma]

His on base percentage doesn't matter when hes putting up those power numbers. You guys care way to much about OBP and stuff like that isnt't a big part of a power number hitters part on a team. He also can run and is a 30/30 guy which Nefi can't do. Believe me he will have a much better and productive year this year than Murton.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

His on base percentage doesn't matter when hes putting up those power numbers. You guys care way to much about OBP and stuff like that isnt't a big part of a power number hitters part on a team.

 

This is woefully incorrect.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

This scenario about Murton worries me:

 

-Shows unusual power during his first big league stint in 2005 (happened)

 

-A little birdie whispers into his ear "Dude we need you to hit more HRs, you know. If you want to stay in the big leagues, quit worrying about walking and practice hitting dingers dude"

 

-Bulks up over the winter, shows up to Cubs Convention unusually bigger (happened)

 

-Posts a .500 SLG in the thin Arizona air during Spring Training

 

-Come mid-June, is demoted to AAA Iowa after his 67th warning track out of the year. Completely loses his ability to get on base with line drives and walks

 

-June 2007, is traded to Baltimore to join the Orioles OF with the 2006 Comeback POY Corey Patterson

 

If that happens, I will buy you and your girlfriend/wife dinner! Promise!

[Andy]

This scenario about Murton worries me:

 

-Shows unusual power during his first big league stint in 2005 (happened)

 

-A little birdie whispers into his ear "Dude we need you to hit more HRs, you know. If you want to stay in the big leagues, quit worrying about walking and practice hitting dingers dude"

 

-Bulks up over the winter, shows up to Cubs Convention unusually bigger (happened)

 

-Posts a .500 SLG in the thin Arizona air during Spring Training

 

-Come mid-June, is demoted to AAA Iowa after his 67th warning track out of the year. Completely loses his ability to get on base with line drives and walks

 

-June 2007, is traded to Baltimore to join the Orioles OF with the 2006 Comeback POY Corey Patterson

Worries me as well, but all indications seem to be that the Cubs like Murton the way he is, aren't expecting him to be a human power machine and will give him more than adequate starting time in LF to prove himself. As for him bulking up, I don't look at that as worrisome. Murton really wasn't all that big to begin with, so the added weight is more likely to add energy so he won't wear down at the end of the year than it is to focus on hitting more homers.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Murton bulked up? Where'd you hear/see this? :)

 

I don't think Murton will start swinging for the fences. He's a pretty smart kid and won't stray too far from his game.

[Knightlife_in_Lubbock]

This scenario about Murton worries me:

 

-Shows unusual power during his first big league stint in 2005 (happened)

 

-A little birdie whispers into his ear "Dude we need you to hit more HRs, you know. If you want to stay in the big leagues, quit worrying about walking and practice hitting dingers dude"

 

-Bulks up over the winter, shows up to Cubs Convention unusually bigger (happened)

 

-Posts a .500 SLG in the thin Arizona air during Spring Training

 

-Come mid-June, is demoted to AAA Iowa after his 67th warning track out of the year. Completely loses his ability to get on base with line drives and walks

 

-June 2007, is traded to Baltimore to join the Orioles OF with the 2006 Comeback POY Corey Patterson

 

If that happens, I will buy you and your girlfriend/wife dinner! Promise!

 

I don't think he wants his wife to know about his girlfriend.

[UMFan83]

Murton bulked up? Where'd you hear/see this? :)

 

It was all the talk during Cubs Convention. I think Hendry recounted a story where people confused Murton for a Bears player (the Bears were also staying at the hotel before their playoff game).

 

I don't think Murton will start swinging for the fences. He's a pretty smart kid and won't stray too far from his game.

 

I don't necessarily think he will either, but a young kid that is trying to stay in the majors full time would find it wise to listen to the coaches that give him advice theoretically.

[Dr. Cub]

Is it a given that he will hit 30 HR this year? No. Do his numbers from the minors to the majors show continuing power increases? Yes.

 

All true. But let's not overstate the nature of these increases...

 

2003: 2 HR in 227 PA (0.88 HR per 100 PA)

2004: 13 HR in 514 PA (2.53 HR per 100 PA)

2005: 16 HR in 548 PA (2.92 HR per 100 PA)

 

The 2003 numbers aren't really that relevant to be honest.

 

Anyway, hitting 30 HR in a full season (which we'll call 600 PA) would mean hitting 5 HR per 100 PA. So the increase in his HR power would need to be about 5 times as great as the increase in his HR power from 2004 to 2005. And the increase would need to be made while facing much more advanced pitching, a longer season, and so on.

 

So it's not just a stretch, it's an enormous stretch. Statistically. And that's not to mention that Murton doesn't even have a 30 HR physique, a 30 HR swing, a 30 HR anything.

 

Not sure where you are getting your 2005 numbers, but I come up with 16 HR in 487 AB's for a 3.29 HR per 100 AB ratio. So the increase would not need to be nearly five times as great, as you stated it would. An increase similar to the increase from '04 to '05 would likely put him about 25HR with 600 AB. So instead of an enormous stretch, it becomes an unlikely possibility. I'm not sitting here arguing for Murton as though he were some monster power hitter, and I want him swinging for the fences. I suggested that statistically, his increases would suggest that it wouldn't be a stretch for 30 HR. Not likely mind you, but a possibility nonetheless. Maybe we're just arguing semantics.

 

What exactly does a 30 HR physique look like? Something like Chase Utley? Or maybe Biggio? Maybe Morgan Ensberg is closer? Saying Murton doesn't have a 30 HR physique or a 30 HR anything seems very abstract and meaningless, to me at least.

Edited February 21, 2006 by Dr. Cub

[Dr. Cub]

Dusty and Hendry really like the kid Murton. I hate to burst anybodies bubble but Murton is staying. And I say THANK GOD. This kid shows the patience at the plate, the ability to post good OBP, and will hit 30 HR for us in 2006.

 

The 30 homers is a bit of a stretch.

 

I don't think it's a stretch. He had 140 AB's with 7 HR. If you extend those numbers over the season he could reach 560 AB's with 28 HR. It surely isn't a given, but he demonstrated he does have the ability/power.

 

It is a stretch. The guy has not hit a combined 20 homers on any professional level during any season.

 

2003 - 2 HRs in 227 ABs

2004 - 13 HRs in 514 ABs

2005 - 17 HRs in 543 ABs

 

Does that mean he won't continue to improve? No. Does that mean he can't develop that power? No. Is it a stretch to say he will hit 30 homers in his first full MLB season? Yes.

 

I would rather him try to keep above a .350 OBP for the entire year than worry about trying to hit 30 home runs.

 

I never suggested I wanted the opposite. I surely don't want him to focus on hitting HR, especially at the expense of his OBP. Is it a given that he will hit 30 HR this year? No. Do his numbers from the minors to the majors show continuing power increases? Yes. Is it then a stretch to think that with his good plate discipline, and his continuing trend of increased power numbers that he could hit 30 HR this year? No.

 

Wow, that answer you're own question thing as they were absolute truths is fun.

 

EDIT: Did Murton play A ball last year? I don't see it, and minorleaguebaseball.com has him with the following stats:

 

AA 34 AB's with 1 HR

AAA 313 AB's with 8 HR

MLB 140 AB's with 7 HR

 

Those numbers total to 487AB's with 16 HR, which is a better ratio of HR per AB than the 2005 numbers you have. Am I missing some numbers somewhere?

 

I never suggested that you wanted him to develop power over OBP. I just listed my personal preference to end the note. To say someone will nearly double his previous power output in the highest form of professional ball in their first full season is a little bit of a stretch IMO. I would be weary of proclaiming that for people that have proven they are more adept for HRs in previous levels of play.

 

It also begins to set expectations too high IMO as well, which leads to people unfairly criticizing people for something they should have never been held accountable for in the first place. I'm not saying that person is you, but I think there are quite a few people out there with the ability to exert that line of thinking.

 

I thank you for not lumping me in with "those people", as I am most definitely not one. I can completely understand, and agree that that line of thinking may arise from those expectations. Like I posted to Diffusion, maybe it's just semantics, and how I interpret "stretch" in this context. While I don't think it likely, I wouldn't be too suprised if he hit 27-30 HR in a full season next year.

[Jehrico]

This scenario about Murton worries me:

 

-Shows unusual power during his first big league stint in 2005 (happened)

 

-A little birdie whispers into his ear "Dude we need you to hit more HRs, you know. If you want to stay in the big leagues, quit worrying about walking and practice hitting dingers dude"

 

-Bulks up over the winter, shows up to Cubs Convention unusually bigger (happened)

 

-Posts a .500 SLG in the thin Arizona air during Spring Training

 

-Come mid-June, is demoted to AAA Iowa after his 67th warning track out of the year. Completely loses his ability to get on base with line drives and walks

 

-June 2007, is traded to Baltimore to join the Orioles OF with the 2006 Comeback POY Corey Patterson

 

If that happens, I will buy you and your girlfriend/wife dinner! Promise!

 

Is that girlfriend OR wife, or girlfriend AND wife? Sounds like you're trying to get someone in trouble...

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

This scenario about Murton worries me:

 

-Shows unusual power during his first big league stint in 2005 (happened)

 

-A little birdie whispers into his ear "Dude we need you to hit more HRs, you know. If you want to stay in the big leagues, quit worrying about walking and practice hitting dingers dude"

 

-Bulks up over the winter, shows up to Cubs Convention unusually bigger (happened)

 

-Posts a .500 SLG in the thin Arizona air during Spring Training

 

-Come mid-June, is demoted to AAA Iowa after his 67th warning track out of the year. Completely loses his ability to get on base with line drives and walks

 

-June 2007, is traded to Baltimore to join the Orioles OF with the 2006 Comeback POY Corey Patterson

 

If that happens, I will buy you and your girlfriend/wife dinner! Promise!

 

Is that girlfriend OR wife, or girlfriend AND wife? Sounds like you're trying to get someone in trouble...

 

My bad... either his girlfriend or wife... not both :)

[CubfaninCA]

I don't know what you guys have against Soriano so much. I'm sorry I'd take someone who hits 30 homeruns and 100 RBIs any day. You have to realize hes not going to be a 2 hitter he'll be our 5 hitter. Those numbers look pretty damn nice at that position. If all we have to give up is Murton I'd take it in a second. By the way there is no way in hell Murton will hit 30 dongs. First off hes not going to play that much because we all no Dusty won't let him. I'd take my chances on Soriano striking out alot if we can add those power numbers into our lineup. This trade won't go down anyways though. At least it won't if we only give up Murton or Walker.

 

He doesn't take walks. As long as there's on base guys batting 1-4, I'm fine w/ a slugger like Soriano. Can't have everything.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

As I've said before, getting Soriano isn't a horrible idea. However, trading Murton to get him is.

 

If we trade Murton for Soriano, we create an even greater log jam at secondbase and then have a gaping hole in left field.

 

Regardless of what power Murton will or will not produce, he's a good player who will be under the Cubs control for the next six years. Soriano is a 10 million dollar player who would be a one year rental. Trading Murton for him without a significant plan to plug the hole in left is a shortsighted and assinine move.

[USSoccer]

As I've said before, getting Soriano isn't a horrible idea. However, trading Murton to get him is.

 

If we trade Murton for Soriano, we create an even greater log jam at secondbase and then have a gaping hole in left field.

 

Regardless of what power Murton will or will not produce, he's a good player who will be under the Cubs control for the next six years. Soriano is a 10 million dollar player who would be a one year rental. Trading Murton for him without a significant plan to plug the hole in left is a shortsighted and assinine move.

 

Exactly. Trading excess junk for him like one of our 2nd baseman and Welley is one thing, but you don't rob Peter to pay Paul.

[CubDad4Ever]

I have to concur with Vance on this one. I have been a big M M fan from early on. The combination of sound minor league numbers. Handling of higher levels quickly. First round in draft. My own evaluation from watching a rookie have better plate disclipline than many cub vets, plus adjusting after his first call up, won me over big time. I know the sample size was small. But weighing all these things makes me believe Vance is right . I think we have a 820 plus ops guy on the cheap , with room to improve that for several years. There are not as many of those guys out there as you think. I am very excited to observe his progress as a full time player. Coach L

[ThePenguin11]

The only way to trade for a guy like Soriano is to trade a few low-level prospects and another bad contract. Otherwise, it's virtually impossible. For an expensive rental, nobody's going to trade a valuable major league talent like Murton. If Soriano had a 3 year contract worth 5 million per year it would be a bit more palatable.

 

You'd have to give up a couple of high-risk / high-reward A-ballers and another bad 1-year contract to lessen the blow. Unfortunately, short of Maddux, there really aren't any bad contracts in the budget (Edit: Neifi's contract sucks, but it appears as if Jim Hendry actually wanted to overpay for this year). It seems weird since for the first time in a while we're not waiting for someone's money to come off the books, except for maybe Maddux, but he'll never get traded. He's more valuable than Soriano for this year anyway.

 

As much as I'd like to see Soriano bash a few onto Waveland, I just don't see a fit unless they took on Neifi Perez and two decent A-Ballers.

Edited February 22, 2006 by ThePenguin11

[Diffusion]

Not sure where you are getting your 2005 numbers, but I come up with 16 HR in 487 AB's for a 3.29 HR per 100 AB ratio.

 

My numbers are the same as your numbers, only I'm using 600 plate appearances instead of 600 at-bats. Personally I think it unlikely that Murton gets either.

 

The size of the increase in Murton's home run power would need to be 5.33 times greater than the increase that he made between 2004 and 2005 by measure of HR per 100 PA for him to hit 30 HR this year in 600 PA.

 

If you want to look at things from a HR per 100 AB perspective, instead of a HR per 100 PA perspective...

 

2003: 2 HR in 189 AB (1.05 HR per 100 AB)

2004: 13 HR in 455 AB (2.86 HR per 100 AB)

2005: 16 HR in 487 AB (3.29 HR per 100 AB)

 

So, if we took a full season before to be about 600 PA, then that equates, for Murton, based on his entire minor league career, to about 525 or so AB. 30 HR in 525 AB is 5.71 HR per 100 AB.

 

Going all the maths, the size of the increase in Murton's home run power would need to be 5.63 times greater than the increase that he made between 2004 and 2005 by measure of HR per 100 AB for him to hit 30 HR this year in 525 AB.

 

Giving Murton 600 AB now, the size of the increase in Murton's home run power would need to be 3.98 times greater than the increase that he made between 2004 and 2005 by measure of HR per 100 AB for him to hit 30 HR this year in 600 AB.

 

What exactly does a 30 HR physique look like? Something like Chase Utley? Or maybe Biggio? Maybe Morgan Ensberg is closer? Saying Murton doesn't have a 30 HR physique or a 30 HR anything seems very abstract and meaningless, to me at least.

 

I wouldn't call such scouting terms abstract and meaningless. They certainly have value, but there are limitations. Much the same as statistics have value, but also limitations.

Edited February 24, 2006 by Diffusion

[Diffusion]

NL, Team PA per Lineup Position, 2005

1: 760

2: 741

3: 725

4: 708

5: 693

6: 674

7: 655

8: 636

9: 616

 

But, of course, players tend not to get every single PA for their relative lineup spot. They're rested, they get injured, they're pinch-hit for, etc...

 

Number of players that got more than 600 PA last year: 85

Of which rookies: 1 (Willy Taveras)

 

Last time a rookie got more than 600 PA under Dusty Baker: Erm, hasn't happened in the last six years, maybe longer.

 

I think it unlikely that Murton will get 600 PA. I think it even more unlikely he'll get 600 AB.

Edited February 24, 2006 by Diffusion

[CubfaninCA]

As I've said before, getting Soriano isn't a horrible idea. However, trading Murton to get him is.

 

If we trade Murton for Soriano, we create an even greater log jam at secondbase and then have a gaping hole in left field.

 

Regardless of what power Murton will or will not produce, he's a good player who will be under the Cubs control for the next six years. Soriano is a 10 million dollar player who would be a one year rental. Trading Murton for him without a significant plan to plug the hole in left is a shortsighted and assinine move.

 

I'm not advocating such a deal, but Pierre, Hairston, Lee, ARam, Sori, Jones, Barrett & Nef is better than the current lineup. Soriano's quite an upgrade over Jones in the 5 hole & I wouldn't be surprised to see Soriano put up an .850 ops playing the NL Central & this is his contract season. Also, there isn't much of a drop in obp between Hairston & Walker in the 2 hole. Further,, the Cubs could resign Soriano. Money, a hitter's park & hitter's division, & great fans could change his mind.

[Dr. Cub]

Is it a given that he will hit 30 HR this year? No. Do his numbers from the minors to the majors show continuing power increases? Yes.

 

All true. But let's not overstate the nature of these increases...

 

2003: 2 HR in 227 PA (0.88 HR per 100 PA)

2004: 13 HR in 514 PA (2.53 HR per 100 PA)

2005: 16 HR in 548 PA (2.92 HR per 100 PA)

 

The 2003 numbers aren't really that relevant to be honest.

 

Anyway, hitting 30 HR in a full season (which we'll call 600 PA) would mean hitting 5 HR per 100 PA. So the increase in his HR power would need to be about 5 times as great as the increase in his HR power from 2004 to 2005. And the increase would need to be made while facing much more advanced pitching, a longer season, and so on.

 

So it's not just a stretch, it's an enormous stretch. Statistically. And that's not to mention that Murton doesn't even have a 30 HR physique, a 30 HR swing, a 30 HR anything.

 

Not sure where you are getting your 2005 numbers, but I come up with 16 HR in 487 AB's for a 3.29 HR per 100 AB ratio.

 

Read.

 

Difference between 2.92 and 2.53 is 0.39. Difference between 5.00 and 2.92 is 2.08. 2.08 divided up 0.39 is 5.33.

 

So the size of the increase in Murton's home run power would need to be 5.33 times greater than the increase that he made between 2004 and 2005 by measure of HR per 100 PA for him to hit 30 HR next year.

 

If you really want to look at things from a HR per 100 AB perspective, instead of a HR per 100 PA perspective...

 

2003: 2 HR in 189 AB (1.05 HR per 100 AB)

2004: 13 HR in 455 AB (2.86 HR per 100 AB)

2005: 16 HR in 487 AB (3.29 HR per 100 AB)

 

So, if we took a full season before to be about 600 PA, then that equates, for Murton, based on his entire minor league career, to about 525 or so AB. 30 HR in 525 AB is 5.71 HR per 100 AB.

 

Difference between 3.29 and 2.86 is 0.43. Difference between 5.71 and 3.29 is 2.42. 2.42 divided by 0.43 is 5.63.

 

So the size of the increase in Murton's home run power would need to be 5.63 times greater than the increase that he made between 2004 and 2005 by measure of HR per 100 AB for him to hit 30 HR next year.

 

So the increase would not need to be nearly five times as great, as you stated it would.

 

You're right. It would need to be more than that. It would need to be more than five times as great. 5.33 or 5.63 depending on whether you use PA or AB as the denominator.

 

The only argument you have against this is that using 525 AB or 600 PA is not enough to qualify as a full season. Still, if we use 600 AB or 700 PA or whatever, the increase is still going to have to well in excess of four times the increase between 04 and 05. Or whatever.

 

An increase similar to the increase from '04 to '05 would likely put him about 25HR with 600 AB.

 

Actually, it wouldn't.

 

So instead of an enormous stretch, it becomes an unlikely possibility.

 

No, actually, it's still an enormous stretch.

 

I'm not sitting here arguing for Murton as though he were some monster power hitter, and I want him swinging for the fences.

 

Fair enough.

 

I suggested that statistically, his increases would suggest that it wouldn't be a stretch for 30 HR.

 

Unfortunately you messed the statistics bit up completely.

 

Not likely mind you, but a possibility nonetheless.

 

If it's not likely, why would you ever say "Murton will hit 30 HR this year".

 

Maybe we're just arguing semantics.

 

No, personally, I believe that the difference between "Murton will hit 30 HR this year" and "Murton won't hit 30 HR this year" isn't semantics.

 

What exactly does a 30 HR physique look like? Something like Chase Utley? Or maybe Biggio? Maybe Morgan Ensberg is closer? Saying Murton doesn't have a 30 HR physique or a 30 HR anything seems very abstract and meaningless, to me at least.

 

Which is why I included it only as a secondary argument thrown in at the end.

 

It's called scouting by the way. And it works, to an extent. It has limitations. But so do statistics.

 

Don't need to [expletive]-foot around it or anything.

 

First bolded part: Please show me where I wrote this.

 

Second bolded part: As far as semantics go, I was referring to when Raven wrote "stretch". Did you seriously not understand that?

 

There really was no need to add the numbers up and do simple arithmetic for me. You simply could have pointed out that I used AB instead of PA when looking at 2005, and then used those numbers against what you had for the previous years. What is this new-fangled "scouting" you speak of? You didn't invent being condescending, but my, you sure are good at it.