Where will Pawelek start the year?

[cuubs4life]

any one heard if we are gonna be careful with him, and not put him in the longer season minor league teams? I would personally perfer to see him to to the longer season ball, instead of the shorter one.

 

just wounderting thanks

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm guessing he starts at Peoria.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Boise - right where he ended last season, IIRC

[rawaction]

I don't know. I'd probably keep him in Arizona for a month-to-month and a half and then put him in Peoria around mid-May. I don't think he should pressured to pitch 140-150 innings this soon. But Boise's season may be too short. Hopefully, he can get 100-120 innings, and be ready to up that by 20-30 innings in 07 at Daytona. That would still put him on track for late 08, early 09, which I think is reasonable.

[cuubs4life]

Boise - right where he ended last season, IIRC

 

I like that idea more I guess. Just to be on the safe side. put him there for about 50-70 innings then promote him late in the year.

[rawaction]

Boise - right where he ended last season, IIRC

 

I like that idea more I guess. Just to be on the safe side. put him there for about 50-70 innings then promote him late in the year.

 

Problem is, the MWL season is over before the NWL season. If he's gonna start in Boise, he may as well finish there and get an extra week of work.

[Outshined_One]

It pretty much all depends on what he shows in Minor League Spring Training at this point. The Cubs were extra careful with him last season in terms of having him on a strict pitch limit down in Mesa, so it is quite clear that they're going to be careful with him. However, if he rolls into ST and shows that he can take on more advanced hitters, I don't see why the Cubs won't at least give him a short stint at Peoria to start the season.

 

By the way, that Peoria rotation has some serious potential to be really exciting this upcoming season...not to mention really lefthanded.

[Tim]

I believe it depends on whether the Cubs wish to make any mechanical changes coming out of ST. If they do, they will leave him in EST. If not, I expect him to start in Peoria with a strict pitch count.

[cuubs4life]

I believe it depends on whether the Cubs wish to make any mechanical changes coming out of ST. If they do, they will leave him in EST. If not, I expect him to start in Peoria with a strict pitch count.

 

correct me if I am wrong, but last year wasnt there a "major flaw" in his windup that the cubs wanted to fix?

[craig]

I expect Pawelek will open at Peoria, and that Peoria could have the deepest rotation of quality prospect in the system. Pawalek, Veal, Holliman, Phelps, Billek, perhaps even Scott Taylor, and the best of Avery or Mitch Atkins or Yepez, and you might have a very intersting rotation.

 

Might need to. If Mark Reed is the best/only position prospect on the team (or will it be Davey Gregg, or Kyle Reynolds?), and if Reed doesn't improve on his poor hitting, that could be a really, really poor lineup.

 

Pawelek has already made 14 starts, and it's pretty likely that his stuff is good enough to be competent in Peoria. He's a 1st rounder, and doesn't have all the injury and other baggage that Harvey had. The plate's no further or smaller in Peoria than in Mesa or Boise, so he can practice throwing strikes anywhere.

 

Several of you have mentioned concerns about innings, for good reason. I think it's sometimes deceptive, though, we think a guy is safe if he isn't pitching box score innings. But he might be throwing just as many pitches in Mesa as he would in Peoria, who knows? The lack of box scores doesn't mean he isn't putting some pitches on his arm down there.

 

I know I'm being selfish, but I hope he starts at Peoria. It would be fun to have a prospect to track who's worth getting excited about. He might be!

[Outshined_One]

Might need to. If Mark Reed is the best/only position prospect on the team (or will it be Davey Gregg, or Kyle Reynolds?), and if Reed doesn't improve on his poor hitting, that could be a really, really poor lineup.

 

Yeah, most of the guys who are likely to be in Peoria next season don't inspire much in me. Some of the guys who were down in Mesa could double jump...but who knows? I can't say I know much about guys like Jesus Valdez, Carlos Quinones, or Jonathan Mota. They could either be potential stars in the making or be filler...but I honestly have no idea.

 

Also, I'd throw Downs on that list of potential starters in the Peoria rotation.

[craig]

Yeah, most of the guys who are likely to be in Peoria next season don't inspire much in me. Some of the guys who were down in Mesa could double jump...but who knows? I can't say I know much about guys like Jesus Valdez, Carlos Quinones, or Jonathan Mota. They could either be potential stars in the making or be filler...but I honestly have no idea.

 

Also, I'd throw Downs on that list of potential starters in the Peoria rotation.

 

Yes, Downs might start, although I hope not, since I'm pretty sure he's no more than roster-fill. I suppose he's got a Phil Norton type ceiling, but I admit I'm not that excited about these mid-80's junk lefties. Maybe his father can persuade us that he might someday grow into a Mark Guthrie fastball...

 

In recent VineLine, Cub farm people got to talk about their prospects, and a handful of the Mesa/Boise type guys got included in the top-50 list. (Including Downs). None of the Valdes/Quinones/Mota guys were included, even though both Quinones and Valdes have been in the states for what, three years already? I suspect if there were "potential stars in the making", the "glass is not only half full, it's overflowing" Cub farm hypers would have seen something in Quinones and Valdes to bump them into the top 50. Mota, he's pretty new, so I could see him being perhaps overlooked perhaps. But I wouldn't hold out any hopes that Valdes or Quinones are going to make an impact.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yeah, most of the guys who are likely to be in Peoria next season don't inspire much in me. Some of the guys who were down in Mesa could double jump...but who knows? I can't say I know much about guys like Jesus Valdez, Carlos Quinones, or Jonathan Mota. They could either be potential stars in the making or be filler...but I honestly have no idea.

 

Also, I'd throw Downs on that list of potential starters in the Peoria rotation.

 

Yes, Downs might start, although I hope not, since I'm pretty sure he's no more than roster-fill. I suppose he's got a Phil Norton type ceiling, but I admit I'm not that excited about these mid-80's junk lefties. Maybe his father can persuade us that he might someday grow into a Mark Guthrie fastball...

 

Just wait for those growth plates to take over!!

 

I want to see Pawelek in Peoria and the sooner the better, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs leave him in Mesa at least to avoid the cooler weather in the MWL. They already displayed some caution with Pawelek last year, I would expect to see some more now.

[Outshined_One]

In recent VineLine, Cub farm people got to talk about their prospects, and a handful of the Mesa/Boise type guys got included in the top-50 list. (Including Downs). None of the Valdes/Quinones/Mota guys were included, even though both Quinones and Valdes have been in the states for what, three years already? I suspect if there were "potential stars in the making", the "glass is not only half full, it's overflowing" Cub farm hypers would have seen something in Quinones and Valdes to bump them into the top 50. Mota, he's pretty new, so I could see him being perhaps overlooked perhaps. But I wouldn't hold out any hopes that Valdes or Quinones are going to make an impact.

 

Which Boise/Mesa guys were included in the Top 50 beyond obvious picks like Pawelek, Reed, and Veal? Also, the only thing I know about Valdez is that he sat out all of 2004 with some sort of injury.

 

I want to see Pawelek in Peoria and the sooner the better, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs leave him in Mesa at least to avoid the cooler weather in the MWL. They already displayed some caution with Pawelek last year, I would expect to see some more now.

 

It would be one thing if Pawelek were recovering from an injury or surgery. However, especially considering Utah isn't exactly renowned for its warm weather, I think starting Pawelek in Peoria would not be detrimental to him as long as the Cubs keep a close on his health.

[ChiefsVoice]

I expect Pawelek will open at Peoria, and that Peoria could have the deepest rotation of quality prospect in the system. Pawalek, Veal, Holliman, Phelps, Billek, perhaps even Scott Taylor, and the best of Avery or Mitch Atkins or Yepez, and you might have a very intersting rotation.

 

Might need to. If Mark Reed is the best/only position prospect on the team (or will it be Davey Gregg, or Kyle Reynolds?), and if Reed doesn't improve on his poor hitting, that could be a really, really poor lineup.

 

Don't forget guys like Yusuf Carter, John Defendis, Brandon Taylor and maybe even a recovered Ryan Norwood. And guys who finished the year here in 05 and could be back for 06.

 

And personally I think Phelps proved he is above this league, especially if he is gonna be a reliever. And Billek could easily contend for a Daytona spot in spring....

[Outshined_One]

I expect Pawelek will open at Peoria, and that Peoria could have the deepest rotation of quality prospect in the system. Pawalek, Veal, Holliman, Phelps, Billek, perhaps even Scott Taylor, and the best of Avery or Mitch Atkins or Yepez, and you might have a very intersting rotation.

 

Might need to. If Mark Reed is the best/only position prospect on the team (or will it be Davey Gregg, or Kyle Reynolds?), and if Reed doesn't improve on his poor hitting, that could be a really, really poor lineup.

 

Don't forget guys like Yusuf Carter, John Defendis, Brandon Taylor and maybe even a recovered Ryan Norwood. And guys who finished the year here in 05 and could be back for 06.

 

And personally I think Phelps proved he is above this league, especially if he is gonna be a reliever. And Billek could easily contend for a Daytona spot in spring....

 

Is there something you're indirectly telling us, Nate? O:)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

In recent VineLine, Cub farm people got to talk about their prospects, and a handful of the Mesa/Boise type guys got included in the top-50 list. (Including Downs). None of the Valdes/Quinones/Mota guys were included, even though both Quinones and Valdes have been in the states for what, three years already? I suspect if there were "potential stars in the making", the "glass is not only half full, it's overflowing" Cub farm hypers would have seen something in Quinones and Valdes to bump them into the top 50. Mota, he's pretty new, so I could see him being perhaps overlooked perhaps. But I wouldn't hold out any hopes that Valdes or Quinones are going to make an impact.

 

Which Boise/Mesa guys were included in the Top 50 beyond obvious picks like Pawelek, Reed, and Veal? Also, the only thing I know about Valdez is that he sat out all of 2004 with some sort of injury.

 

I want to see Pawelek in Peoria and the sooner the better, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs leave him in Mesa at least to avoid the cooler weather in the MWL. They already displayed some caution with Pawelek last year, I would expect to see some more now.

 

It would be one thing if Pawelek were recovering from an injury or surgery. However, especially considering Utah isn't exactly renowned for its warm weather, I think starting Pawelek in Peoria would not be detrimental to him as long as the Cubs keep a close on his health.

 

But the Cubs might be more inclined to play it safe after so many injuries, especially considering that he's now the crown (pitching) jewel in the farm system.

 

Because he's from Utah can work both ways - it's cooler there, so his arm might not be used to logging as many innings (especially compared to a HS pitcher from, say, Cali) so it might be better to bring him along slower.

 

I agree that it won't necessarily be any riskier starting him in Peoria, and as long as his mechanical flaws have been corrected, I do want to see him in Peoria. But I wouldn't be shocked if the Cubs feel they have to play it safer.

 

EDIT: That's your best sig yet.

[ChiefsVoice]

 

Is there something you're indirectly telling us, Nate? O:)

 

Nope. unfortunately I have no inside info on our roster. Just like everyone else Ive made a list of possibles, but thats about it.

[craig]

In recent VineLine, Cub farm people got to talk about their prospects, and a handful of the Mesa/Boise type guys got included in the top-50 list. (Including Downs). None of the Valdes/Quinones/Mota guys were included, even though both Quinones and Valdes have been in the states for what, three years already? I suspect if there were "potential stars in the making", the "glass is not only half full, it's overflowing" Cub farm hypers would have seen something in Quinones and Valdes to bump them into the top 50. Mota, he's pretty new, so I could see him being perhaps overlooked perhaps. But I wouldn't hold out any hopes that Valdes or Quinones are going to make an impact.

 

Which Boise/Mesa guys were included in the Top 50 beyond obvious picks like Pawelek, Reed, and Veal? Also, the only thing I know about Valdez is that he sat out all of 2004 with some sort of injury.

 

Fair question. I think there were about 8 or 10 guys who played at Mesa/Boise last year or not even. I'm going to try to remember:

*Pawelek

*Veal

*Holliiman

*Billek

*Johnston

*Taylor (Scott)

*Muyco

*Kyle Reynolds

*Simokaitis (sp?) (the Nebraska SS who hit arond .190)

*Phelps

*Sammy Baez

*Mark Reed

*Darrin Downs

*Mitch Atkins

 

So that's 14 guys from the short-season range. Most were drafted players, so perhaps there is some bias there. But if dudes like Jake Muyco and Simokaitis and Reynolds and Reed and Sammy Baez are making the list, I'd think if Valdez or Quinones had any star potential, the Cub people would have gotten at least a hint in their several years in the states. Baez made it with one year in the states; Valdez and Quinones have each had two, I think, so they might have made it too.

 

I'm hoping they did miss some guys, and some of the Latins who didn't perform very well just got left off. Particularly the SS, or one of the pitchers perhaps.

 

But it's not just a case that unless you were a 1st or 2nd rounder, you need to have some full-season baseball to make the list.

[craig]

I expect Pawelek will open at Peoria, and that Peoria could have the deepest rotation of quality prospect in the system. Pawalek, Veal, Holliman, Phelps, Billek, perhaps even Scott Taylor, and the best of Avery or Mitch Atkins or Yepez, and you might have a very intersting rotation.

 

Might need to. If Mark Reed is the best/only position prospect on the team (or will it be Davey Gregg, or Kyle Reynolds?), and if Reed doesn't improve on his poor hitting, that could be a really, really poor lineup.

 

Don't forget guys like Yusuf Carter, John Defendis, Brandon Taylor and maybe even a recovered Ryan Norwood. And guys who finished the year here in 05 and could be back for 06.

 

And personally I think Phelps proved he is above this league, especially if he is gonna be a reliever. And Billek could easily contend for a Daytona spot in spring....

 

Good points. Certainly Phelps and Billek, and perhaps even Holliman, might start higher than Peoria and leave it with not such an interesting rotation. If Pawelek were to start below Peoria, and two or three from the Phelps/Billek/Holliman were to start above Peoria, then the rotation could not be that interesting after Veal.

 

You make a good point on the hitters. I might judge that the glass is pretty empty in terms of big-league position prospects. But in terms of guys who might do well enough at A- to help Peoria score some runs and win some games, often organizational players can do that.

 

So who knows. Who might some of the OFers be? Defendis, maybe bring Flowers back..., Davey Gregg, Valdes, maybe Quinones, maybe Carter...

Infielders: Kyle Reynolds, Brandon Taylor, Norwood, Simokaitis, Mota, Drew Larsen, Elvin Puello again, maybe another round of Tony Granato...

Catchers: Reed, Muyco, more Alan Rick...

 

Doesn't sound like a very exciting list in terms of potential big-leaguers. But I guess you don't necessarily need to have big-league potential to possibly hit respectably enough in low-A league.

[craig]

And personally I think Phelps proved he is above this league, especially if he is gonna be a reliever. And Billek could easily contend for a Daytona spot in spring....

 

Nate, I have a Phelps-related question. In the report BA wrote up about Phelps for the draft, it suggested that his changeup might be his best pitch. In the recent VineLine magazine, it says about Phelps that this past summer the Cubs had him *not* use his changeup, but that he would utilize that again if they decide to use him as a rotation pitcher this summer.

 

Do you know anything about this changeup business? Or anybody else do you know anything about this?

 

In the past, it seems BA has sometimes claimed some pitch was good or promising or somebody's best pitch (Sisco and his splitter), but the Cubs have supposedly told them not to use it. I think sometimes that may be true, and for good reason. BA might not be accurate in hyping a particular pitch, or the Cubs may see it as a delivery that will lead to injury. Or in other cases I think perhaps the Cubs want the guy to not rely on that pitch for getting outs, and instead figure they need to work on their curveball.

 

I'm just curious in Phelps case. The optimist in me says it's all true. Phelps looked great last year, with his fastball and curve. But his change is even better, and when he adds his changeup into his arsenal this summer, he'll look fantastic.

 

Vineline (a very unreliable pub, by the way) also claimed that Phelps was supposedly a possibility as a 1st round pick entering last spring, before he broke his skull. I've heard BA say that he had a shot to be a "high round" pick next year, but hadn't heard them refer to as a 1st round candidate. If he really has the arm (and/or projection) to have been considered a 1st round candidate, that's pretty encouraging.

 

Just for the record, Vineline has all kinds of factual errors. They write up Ryu has throwing in the high 90's, which of course hasn't been true since his high school days in Korea. They said Marmol has been in the states or pitching in the states for only 2 years, when he's been pitching in the states for three and in the states for at least 5. They also write up Matt Craig as if he's some defensive wizard at 3B. Always a little hard to sift through their exaggeration.

[Outshined_One]

Interesting that they gave Sammy Baez some love. Here's what BA had to say about him in the AZL Top 20:

 

In a league filled with quality shortstops, Baez may have been the best defender of the bunch. He was advanced in all aspects of shortstop play, with hands, range and arm strength that graded out at 65 on the standard 20-80 scouting scale. He also has outstanding instincts.

 

But Baez ranks as no better than the fourth shortstop on the list because his bat is a liability. He can’t hit now, though he could develop power once he fills out his thin 6-foot-3 frame.

 

Definitely some promise there if he's an advanced defender.

[ChiefsVoice]

Craig-

 

All i know is that he didnt throw it here at all last year. I dont know if he plans on throwing it in 2006. I havent talked to him or anyone about him since he left here in August. I should be in Mesa in a few weeks and see what i can find out...

 

oh and Drew Larsen unfortunuately was on the released list two weeks ago. i saw you had him as a potential returnee. Great kid. I hope he latches on somewhere...

 

Nathan