Time to get behind who we have??

[Mizzou]

Our offense doesn't suck. Last year it was 9th in runs scored and 4th in OPS. And it has been improved. While not the best in the league, it certainly doesn't suck either.

 

9th in runs scored in the 16 team NL. That's bad. Below average is bad.

 

4th in OPS doesn't come close to telling the whole story. The OBP side of OPS should weigh more heavily than the SLG side. The Cubs are good with the SLG, but absolutely terrible with the OBP. This offense is not among the worst of the worst, but it's far from good at the same time. It's an enormous problem.

That's one (entirely pessimistic) way of looking at it. Take away the time that Aramis Ramirez missed, and the team would be above average in runs scored. Maybe even top 5.

 

Pessimistic? It's the god's honest truth. Just the facts, no spin. It's tough to score runs when you don't get on base very often, and the Cubs don't get on base often enough. You're the one throwing around ifs. Yeah, if everything works out perfectly the Cubs would win every game. I live in the real world where the Cubs have had a real run scoring problem for several years that is tied to an OBP problem, which is entirely based on their inability to draw walks.

 

But no, let's all pretend that's just pessimism and not the truth.

It is pessimism! And that's fine, but that's what it is. And I'm well aware of the OBP problems, but they have been addressed to a degree and I'm 100% confident that the team OBP will be a lot better than what it was last year. I'd hardly say that the offense is an "enormous problem" like you originally stated. The team had the second best batting average in the league (tied with the Cards) and the 4th best OPS last year... and it has been upgraded. I know, I know, their OBP was bad. Well, OBP isn't everything. This offense is fine.

[Houston_Cub_Fan]

I agree that JJ was a horrible signing and leaves us with a huge hole in the five slot. I'm not really optimistic about this team and few are. Two things we can hope for: Healthy pitching (seems unlikely give then past few years, but who knows) and the benefit of lowered expectations (not a whole lot of pressure on this team compared to last two years, maybe they'll loosen up in the clutch and get a few hits with runners on. I think we were second to last in team BA with RISP last year.)

 

Obviously these are big ifs.

 

I also tend to think the bullpen will be a strength this year, which is a luxury we haven't had recently.

[BigbadB]

I'll agree the bullpen has better arms than in past years, but I am not the slightest bit assured that Dusty knows how to effectively use them.

[rocket]

Our offense doesn't suck. Last year it was 9th in runs scored and 4th in OPS. And it has been improved. While not the best in the league, it certainly doesn't suck either.

 

9th in runs scored in the 16 team NL. That's bad. Below average is bad.

 

4th in OPS doesn't come close to telling the whole story. The OBP side of OPS should weigh more heavily than the SLG side. The Cubs are good with the SLG, but absolutely terrible with the OBP. This offense is not among the worst of the worst, but it's far from good at the same time. It's an enormous problem.

That's one (entirely pessimistic) way of looking at it. Take away the time that Aramis Ramirez missed, and the team would be above average in runs scored. Maybe even top 5.

 

I think the Cubs were already out of it when Aramis missed time.

[goonys evil twin]

It is pessimism! And that's fine, but that's what it is. And I'm well aware of the OBP problems, but they have been addressed to a degree and I'm 100% confident that the team OBP will be a lot better than what it was last year. I'd hardly say that the offense is an "enormous problem" like you originally stated. The team had the second best batting average in the league (tied with the Cards) and the 4th best OPS last year... and it has been upgraded. I know, I know, their OBP was bad. Well, OBP isn't everything. This offense is fine.

 

How in the world is in pessimism to point out that 9th in the league in runs scored is below average, and therefore bad for a team that should be contending? How is it pessimism to point out that the 4th best OPS was actually made up of really good SLG and really bad OBP, which was due to a terribly low number of walks taken?

 

You can't look at facts and dismiss them as pessimism. Ignoring facts does no good. Would you like it if Jim Hendry said, "well, we had a good OPS and good batting average so obviously there's no wrong with the offense." I wouldn't. That would be ignoring the reasons why a 4th ranked OPS could result in a substandard 9th place runs scored ranking.

 

This is absurd. The facts are the facts. 9th place in runs scored isn't good. It's far from good. The reason they were 9th is because they had a fatal flaw with their offense, they didn't walk. They were, and are, a very impatient team as a whole. This lack of patience leads to a poor OBP, which holds down runs scored and prevents wins.

 

This isn't pessimism. It's refusing to ignore reality.

[UK1679666180]

The Cubs OPS proved to be a poor indicator of run production, their standard deviation on offense was off the charts last year.

 

You typically want a higher deviation from your pitching staff, give a week's schedule worth of runs allowed (1, 1, 10, 2, 10, 2) you'll likely win 4 of those 6 games. Less deviation will gives you more a dramatic bell curve (4, 5, 3, 6, 4, 4), even though both staffs allowed 26 runs over the 6 games, the 1st team has a better chance of winning more games than the 2nd team.

 

Offensively, you want less deviation; using the same example (1, 1, 10, 2, 10, 2) you'll likely only win 2 of those games. Score (4, 5, 3, 6, 4, 4) and you have a much better chance of winning 3 or more of those games.

 

The Cubs had a slightly higher OPS than STL...

 

Yet, STL scored 3 runs or less in 49 games, while the Cubs scored 3 runs or less in 76 of the games. Almost half of the games the Cubs played, they scored 3 runs or less. 101 games of 4 runs or less for the Cubs .

[noisesquared]

It is pessimism! And that's fine, but that's what it is. And I'm well aware of the OBP problems, but they have been addressed to a degree and I'm 100% confident that the team OBP will be a lot better than what it was last year. I'd hardly say that the offense is an "enormous problem" like you originally stated. The team had the second best batting average in the league (tied with the Cards) and the 4th best OPS last year... and it has been upgraded. I know, I know, their OBP was bad. Well, OBP isn't everything. This offense is fine.

 

How in the world is in pessimism to point out that 9th in the league in runs scored is below average, and therefore bad for a team that should be contending? How is it pessimism to point out that the 4th best OPS was actually made up of really good SLG and really bad OBP, which was due to a terribly low number of walks taken?

 

You can't look at facts and dismiss them as pessimism. Ignoring facts does no good. Would you like it if Jim Hendry said, "well, we had a good OPS and good batting average so obviously there's no wrong with the offense." I wouldn't. That would be ignoring the reasons why a 4th ranked OPS could result in a substandard 9th place runs scored ranking.

 

This is absurd. The facts are the facts. 9th place in runs scored isn't good. It's far from good. The reason they were 9th is because they had a fatal flaw with their offense, they didn't walk. They were, and are, a very impatient team as a whole. This lack of patience leads to a poor OBP, which holds down runs scored and prevents wins.

 

This isn't pessimism. It's refusing to ignore reality.

 

I think it's pessimistic to say the 2006 offense will suck based on the fact the 2005 offense sucked, in spite of the fact that the most glaring OBP problems have at least been semi-addressed. Pierre even at his career lows would be a huge upgrade over last year's CF, and full seasons of Murton and Cedeno should be better than last year's SS and LF production. Granted, it's up to Baker to allow Murton and Cedeno to play, which is the one area I'm pessimistic about.

[UK1679666180]

It also depends on who is hitting and starting at 2B, if Perez is the starting 2B and hitting 2nd for some reason I can't think of, any improvement on offense will be severely restricted.

 

The Cubs will have to avoid severe regression from Lee & Barrett, as well as the health of Ramirez/Walker and avoiding Soph. slumps from Cedeno and Murton. I still think the offense would get a good boost if they platooned Jones, but that doesn't appear likely.

 

I assume they'll score more runs, just how much and how well they are able to spread the wealth is another story.

[CubinNY]

Our offense doesn't suck. Last year it was 9th in runs scored and 4th in OPS. And it has been improved. While not the best in the league, it certainly doesn't suck either.

 

9th in runs scored in the 16 team NL. That's bad. Below average is bad.

 

4th in OPS doesn't come close to telling the whole story. The OBP side of OPS should weigh more heavily than the SLG side. The Cubs are good with the SLG, but absolutely terrible with the OBP. This offense is not among the worst of the worst, but it's far from good at the same time. It's an enormous problem.

That's one (entirely pessimistic) way of looking at it. Take away the time that Aramis Ramirez missed, and the team would be above average in runs scored. Maybe even top 5.

 

Pessimistic? It's the god's honest truth. Just the facts, no spin. It's tough to score runs when you don't get on base very often, and the Cubs don't get on base often enough. You're the one throwing around ifs. Yeah, if everything works out perfectly the Cubs would win every game. I live in the real world where the Cubs have had a real run scoring problem for several years that is tied to an OBP problem, which is entirely based on their inability to draw walks.

 

But no, let's all pretend that's just pessimism and not the truth.

It is pessimism! And that's fine, but that's what it is. And I'm well aware of the OBP problems, but they have been addressed to a degree and I'm 100% confident that the team OBP will be a lot better than what it was last year. I'd hardly say that the offense is an "enormous problem" like you originally stated. The team had the second best batting average in the league (tied with the Cards) and the 4th best OPS last year... and it has been upgraded. I know, I know, their OBP was bad. Well, OBP isn't everything. This offense is fine.

 

Runs scored is what matters and the Cubs were well below average in that department. That is not pesimism, that is fact.

 

Maybe they have upgraded with Slap Nasty in CF but they have either stayed the same or down graded at every other position offensively.

 

How anyone cannot see that is beyond my capacity to understand.

[Mizzou]

I've never said that there's nothing wrong with the offense. I have said that its far from the enormous problem that you proclaim it to be. You continue to harp on last year's problems, yet there's no doubt that they have been improved.

 

And the reason they were 9th in runs was more because of people like Corey Patterson, Neifi Perez, and Todd Hollandsworth playing everyday. Even with those scrubs in there, if you take away Ramirez's injury, the Cubs go from below average in runs scored to above average.

[Mizzou]

Runs scored is what matters and the Cubs were well below average in that department. That is not pesimism, that is fact.

 

Maybe they have upgraded with Slap Nasty in CF but they have either stayed the same or down graded at every other position offensively.

 

How anyone cannot see that is beyond my capacity to understand.

Cedeno is the same or worse than Neifi? Murton is the same or worse than Hollandsworth/Dubois/Lawton? Not in my eyes.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

... with Slap Nasty in CF ...

 

We have a winner to the "Juan Pierre needs a new nickname" contest.

[rawaction]

Jacque Jones will finally live up to his potential as a player. Think of it this way, if Jones hits his career average of .279, and walks at the very respectable pace he did in 05 (.087 BB/PA), he will have an OBP in the mid .350's. If you think that's not very realistic, then look at his pre-All-Star numbers last year. He was on a very similar pace last year, before he fell apart.

 

HOW'S THAT FOR OPTIMISM!

[UK1679666180]

Jacque Jones will finally live up to his potential as a player. Think of it this way, if Jones hits his career average of .279, and walks at the very respectable pace he did in 05 (.087 BB/PA), he will have an OBP in the mid .350's. If you think that's not very realistic, then look at his pre-All-Star numbers last year. He was on a very similar pace last year, before he fell apart.

 

HOW'S THAT FOR OPTIMISM!

 

Having him hit a limited amount of LH'ers, would boost his numbers as well.

 

In fact, with his improved apporach at the plate, as well as being healthy and facing a limited amount of LH'ers, he would have a decent chance of being above .850 again. If he faces a full season of LH'ers, he'll probably be around .790-.800, his career OPS is about 50 points higher against RH'ers than his overall OPS.

Edited February 8, 2006 by UK

[goonys evil twin]

I've never said that there's nothing wrong with the offense. I have said that its far from the enormous problem that you proclaim it to be. You continue to harp on last year's problems, yet there's no doubt that they have been improved.

 

You were the one who brought up last year's numbers.

 

Regardless, you can't talk about this year's team without bringing up last year's. The runs scored/OBP/walk problem wasn't just something that crept up out of nowwhere. It's been a lingering problem year after year. And it is still a problem. The offense is better, but I doubt it'll be a whole lot better. It still won't be near the top of the league.

[rocket]

Runs scored is what matters and the Cubs were well below average in that department. That is not pesimism, that is fact.

 

Maybe they have upgraded with Slap Nasty in CF but they have either stayed the same or down graded at every other position offensively.

 

How anyone cannot see that is beyond my capacity to understand.

Cedeno is the same or worse than Neifi? Murton is the same or worse than Hollandsworth/Dubois/Lawton? Not in my eyes.

 

I don't see it as any certainty that Cedeno would significantly outproduce Neifi's 2005 production in a full season.

[goonys evil twin]

I think it's pessimistic to say the 2006 offense will suck based on the fact the 2005 offense sucked, in spite of the fact that the most glaring OBP problems have at least been semi-addressed. Pierre even at his career lows would be a huge upgrade over last year's CF, and full seasons of Murton and Cedeno should be better than last year's SS and LF production. Granted, it's up to Baker to allow Murton and Cedeno to play, which is the one area I'm pessimistic about.

 

You're putting words into people's mouths. The offense is a problem, but it's been acknowledged it's not the worst out there. Sure it's been improved. But at least in my eyes, not nearly as much as it could and should have been improved. And perhaps the biggest problem is it shouldn't have been as bad as it's been in the recent past if the Cubs weren't so insistent on handicapping themselves with an overly aggressive offense that refuses to walk.

 

It's not pessimism to point out weakness. It is foolish to ignore weaknesses. The offense is a problem. The health of the pitching staff is a problem. The pitching staff could conceivably be very healthy and dominant. The offense does not even offer a glimmer of hope for dominance.

[goonys evil twin]

Runs scored is what matters and the Cubs were well below average in that department. That is not pesimism, that is fact.

 

Maybe they have upgraded with Slap Nasty in CF but they have either stayed the same or down graded at every other position offensively.

 

How anyone cannot see that is beyond my capacity to understand.

Cedeno is the same or worse than Neifi? Murton is the same or worse than Hollandsworth/Dubois/Lawton? Not in my eyes.

 

You have to remember Cedeno won't get 700 PA at SS. Even if Cedeno outperforms Neifi circa 2005, Neifi will get significant time at SS. He could easily drag the overall SS production down to the level it was at, or near where it was at last year. Likewise, Murton will not get 700 PA. And the Cubs lack of OF depth could easily mean the overall LF production is very close to what it was last year. Remember, he doesn't have to just replace Hollandsworth/Dubois/Lawton, he has to also replace Murton and Hairston of 2005. It's about total production, not just peak production.

[badger1679666666]

Runs scored is what matters and the Cubs were well below average in that department. That is not pesimism, that is fact.

 

Maybe they have upgraded with Slap Nasty in CF but they have either stayed the same or down graded at every other position offensively.

 

How anyone cannot see that is beyond my capacity to understand.

Cedeno is the same or worse than Neifi? Murton is the same or worse than Hollandsworth/Dubois/Lawton? Not in my eyes.

 

I don't see it as any certainty that Cedeno would significantly outproduce Neifi's 2005 production in a full season.

 

If you would like to place a wager on it I will. Even with neifi's amazing april/may, his final numbers were still just plain awful. Cedeno will easily best those numbers.

 

And Since I'm the bandWGN driver, I have to show my support and faith - so if people want to be totally pessimistic, I'm willing to place down a friendly wager....

[goonys evil twin]

If you would like to place a wager on it I will. Even with neifi's amazing april/may, his final numbers were still just plain awful. Cedeno will easily best those numbers.

 

And Since I'm the bandWGN driver, I have to show my support and faith - so if people want to be totally pessimistic, I'm willing to place down a friendly wager....

 

I would bet Cedeno outperforms Neifi. But I'd hesitate to bet that the Cubs 2006 SS production eclipses the Cubs 2005 SS production.

[badger1679666666]

If you would like to place a wager on it I will. Even with neifi's amazing april/may, his final numbers were still just plain awful. Cedeno will easily best those numbers.

 

And Since I'm the bandWGN driver, I have to show my support and faith - so if people want to be totally pessimistic, I'm willing to place down a friendly wager....

 

I would bet Cedeno outperforms Neifi. But I'd hesitate to bet that the Cubs 2006 SS production eclipses the Cubs 2005 SS production.

 

Well that all depends on how much time Dustbrain gives to Cedeno over Neifster. But your statement very well might be right, since Nomar was on fire when he came back - and it's doubtful Cedeno will put up those 2nd half Nomar numbers in his first full year at SS.

[noisesquared]

If you would like to place a wager on it I will. Even with neifi's amazing april/may, his final numbers were still just plain awful. Cedeno will easily best those numbers.

 

And Since I'm the bandWGN driver, I have to show my support and faith - so if people want to be totally pessimistic, I'm willing to place down a friendly wager....

 

I would bet Cedeno outperforms Neifi. But I'd hesitate to bet that the Cubs 2006 SS production eclipses the Cubs 2005 SS production.

 

Well that all depends on how much time Dustbrain gives to Cedeno over Neifster. But your statement very well might be right, since Nomar was on fire when he came back - and it's doubtful Cedeno will put up those 2nd half Nomar numbers in his first full year at SS.

 

But much of Nomar's production was from 3rd base, after Ramirez went down. Nomar Had 34 appearances at 3B, compared to 26 at SS. He was hitting 238/297/337 on 8/26, when he made his first appearance at 3B, I believe.

[rocket]

Runs scored is what matters and the Cubs were well below average in that department. That is not pesimism, that is fact.

 

Maybe they have upgraded with Slap Nasty in CF but they have either stayed the same or down graded at every other position offensively.

 

How anyone cannot see that is beyond my capacity to understand.

Cedeno is the same or worse than Neifi? Murton is the same or worse than Hollandsworth/Dubois/Lawton? Not in my eyes.

 

I don't see it as any certainty that Cedeno would significantly outproduce Neifi's 2005 production in a full season.

 

If you would like to place a wager on it I will. Even with neifi's amazing april/may, his final numbers were still just plain awful. Cedeno will easily best those numbers.

 

And Since I'm the bandWGN driver, I have to show my support and faith - so if people want to be totally pessimistic, I'm willing to place down a friendly wager....

 

I said I don't think it's all that likely that he would SIGNIFICANTLY outproduce Neifi next season. I won't bet on whether Ronnie outproduces Neifi next year.

 

Though, for fun, I'll bet that Cedeno doesn't eclipse a .700 OPS in a full season (min. 300 ABs for the sake of argument).

[Ding Dong Johnson]

But much of Nomar's production was from 3rd base, after Ramirez went down. Nomar Had 34 appearances at 3B, compared to 26 at SS. He was hitting 238/297/337 on 8/26, when he made his first appearance at 3B, I believe.

 

Excellent point.

 

3B - 308/329/526/855

SS - 250/305/354/659

[Andy]

... with Slap Nasty in CF ...

 

We have a winner to the "Juan Pierre needs a new nickname" contest.

I know I'm calling him that from now on. :P