Abreu to the White Sox in the Rumor Mill

[fromthestretch]

I'd prefer to have a line-drive hitter that sprays the ball to all fields than a Sammy Sosa lite that's going to K 150 times a year. The difference in walk rates is negligible, BTW.

 

Jones isn't exactly Mr. Contact himself. He strikes out once every 4.7 at bats.

 

The Cubs could have just kept Nomar if they were interested in another game of injury roulette.

 

At least Nomar has some offensive upside.

 

Jones and Wilson are scheduled to make about the same $$$ in 2006. Jones will be paid $3M in salary plus 1/3 of his $4M signing bonus. Wilson gets $4M, plus a $500K buyout if his option is not picked up.

 

I could be wrong, but I do not believe you can receive draft pick compensation after you decline an option on a guy and allow him to become a free agent. (Wilson's option is 3/$24M, BTW. They could buy out the option and then sign him for less, conceivably.)

 

I wasn't aware there was a team option on Wilson. If he has a good season, pick it up. If he doesn't, so be it. I don't see the upside of being able to trade Jones for AA roster filler while still eating his contract in 2007.

 

Like I said, had they given him a one-year deal, I wouldn't be nearly as upset with this. Had they signed him to play CF and acquired a good bat for RF, I'd be much happier with it. Three years though is just plain wrong.

 

I'm not saying that the Cubs could have made an offer that another team would have liked, but I would have preferred making a reasonable trade for someone like Mench or Wilkerson.

[davearm]

Jones is averaging a 99 OPS+ the past 3 seasons, not 107.

Actually 125, 90 and 99 averages to 105, not 107.

 

Unless you saying Transmogrified Tiger's figures are wrong.

 

Uh, the numbers posted for '03-'05 are 106, 90, and 99, average of 98.

Whoops!

 

Well that mathematical gaffe aside, the point remains: the MLB free agent marketplace indicates that Jones has very similar value to Dye (and Wilson, for that matter).

 

If GMs implicitly project similar all-around production from these guys, then why shouldn't we? Why is Jones ~= Dye (not strictly in terms of OPS+, but overall) seen as an unreasonable expectation?

[fromthestretch]

Jones is averaging a 99 OPS+ the past 3 seasons, not 107.

Actually 125, 90 and 99 averages to 105, not 107.

 

Unless you saying Transmogrified Tiger's figures are wrong.

 

Uh, the numbers posted for '03-'05 are 106, 90, and 99, average of 98.

Whoops!

 

Well that mathematical gaffe aside, the point remains: the MLB free agent marketplace indicates that Jones has very similar value to Dye (and Wilson, for that matter).

 

If GMs implicitly project similar all-around production from these guys, then why shouldn't we? Why is Jones ~= Dye (not strictly in terms of OPS+, but overall) seen as an unreasonable expectation?

 

It's not unreasonable to expect them to put up similar numbers, although looking at the last two years for Jones, I certainly wouldn't bet money on him to produce at the same level as Dye.

 

As far as Wilson goes, you just kind of proved my point. It GMs project similar all-around production from these guys, and they're pretty much the same age, how can you justify a three-year deal for one while the other was willing to sign for a one-year deal? Were the Cubs really that hellbent on getting another left-handed bat that they had to offer three years?

[davearm]

The Cubs could have just kept Nomar if they were interested in another game of injury roulette.

 

At least Nomar has some offensive upside.

Unlike Preston Wilson, apparently.

 

I wasn't aware there was a team option on Wilson. If he has a good season, pick it up. If he doesn't, so be it. I don't see the upside of being able to trade Jones for AA roster filler while still eating his contract in 2007.

 

Like I said, had they given him a one-year deal, I wouldn't be nearly as upset with this. Had they signed him to play CF and acquired a good bat for RF, I'd be much happier with it. Three years though is just plain wrong.

 

I'm not saying that the Cubs could have made an offer that another team would have liked, but I would have preferred making a reasonable trade for someone like Mench or Wilkerson.

I would've preferred a shorter contract for Jones too... I think everyone would. But it's not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be.

 

And this whole notion of trading him for junk and eating a bunch of contract is cynical to an extreme. It's not 100% implausible of course, but man, that's really pessimistic. He might end up being, you know, valuable, and perhaps even a bargain. I'm at least willing to give him a chance to stink it up before trashing him and banishing him to Sosaville.

 

And Mench or Wilkerson are certainly viable alternatives, but it's really 6 of one, a half-dozen of the other, by the time you get done factoring in the players that would need to be dealt, versus the contracts, versus the performance expectations.

[davearm]

Jones is averaging a 99 OPS+ the past 3 seasons, not 107.

Actually 125, 90 and 99 averages to 105, not 107.

 

Unless you saying Transmogrified Tiger's figures are wrong.

 

Uh, the numbers posted for '03-'05 are 106, 90, and 99, average of 98.

Whoops!

 

Well that mathematical gaffe aside, the point remains: the MLB free agent marketplace indicates that Jones has very similar value to Dye (and Wilson, for that matter).

 

If GMs implicitly project similar all-around production from these guys, then why shouldn't we? Why is Jones ~= Dye (not strictly in terms of OPS+, but overall) seen as an unreasonable expectation?

 

It's not unreasonable to expect them to put up similar numbers, although looking at the last two years for Jones, I certainly wouldn't bet money on him to produce at the same level as Dye.

 

As far as Wilson goes, you just kind of proved my point. It GMs project similar all-around production from these guys, and they're pretty much the same age, how can you justify a three-year deal for one while the other was willing to sign for a one-year deal? Were the Cubs really that hellbent on getting another left-handed bat that they had to offer three years?

Well the short answer is that Wilson's lingering injury situation pretty much derailed his hopes for a guaranteed multi-year deal.

 

Absent that, Wilson brings 3/16, or more.

[NCCubFan]

Gary Sheffield is 70 years old,

Hogwash.

 

He isn't a day over 65. :lol:

[Magnetic Curses]

read the bolded.

 

I know you wrote Carlos would disagree, I was merely replying after seeing a few posts that questioned Hoops for writing what he wrote. It appeared to me that many thought he was nuts for thinking some GM's would think what he wrote they might think, and I happen to agree with his theory.

 

i was just defending carlos in my own weird way.

 

it really torks me off that a trade like this could go through when the cubs couldn't buy a decent deal.

[jmajew]

I haven't read this entire thread so if some of this has been said I apologize. I think this is a good trade for both teams. It will hurt neither teams future and it will help both of them in the present.

 

AVG/OBP/SLG

286/405/474

274/333/512

 

Those are both Abreu's and Dye's lines from last year. Abreu is obviously better. However, the addition of Contreras into the deal makes this an extremely fair and good deal for both teams. The Phillies need pitching in order to compete in the NL EAST. In order to get what you need you have to give away something you have an excess of. The Phillies have more offense then they need and the Sox have more pitching than they need. You always trade from your biggest strength to help your biggest need. Look at the PHillies lineup without Abreu in it. It is still possibly the best in the division.

 

Rollins, Utley, Howard, Burrell, Dye, Rowand, Lieberthall, Bell.

 

Look at the Sox pitchign staff.

Buerhle, Garland, McCarthy, Vazquez, Garcia still the best in baseball.

 

This deal would make the Phillies staff competetive this year. If Contreras and Dye bomb you can use the 17 million they save on signing players next year. For the White Sox after next season both Contreras and Dye were going to be gone anyway.

 

With regards to Contreras having only having one good half, it was because he changed his arm angle. Once he did that his pitches got more movement on them; making him harder to hit. IMO I do not think Contreras was a fluke.

[fromthestretch]

I would've preferred a shorter contract for Jones too... I think everyone would. But it's not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be.

 

And there's a great chance it's not going to turn out to be as good as we all hope and pray that it will.

 

And this whole notion of trading him for junk and eating a bunch of contract is cynical to an extreme. It's not 100% implausible of course, but man, that's really pessimistic. He might end up being, you know, valuable, and perhaps even a bargain. I'm at least willing to give him a chance to stink it up before trashing him and banishing him to Sosaville.

 

How is it cynical? You tell me what team is going to give something of value up for Jacque Jones at his current level of production. Seriously, if any team is willing to deal something of actual value for Jones, then that means one of two things:

 

1. Jones is actually earning his contract and producing well.

2. Jim Bowden is the GM of the team he's being traded to.

 

Given his level of production the last two seasons, I'd say the chances of #1 aren't exactly in his favor.

 

And Mench or Wilkerson are certainly viable alternatives, but it's really 6 of one, a half-dozen of the other, by the time you get done factoring in the players that would need to be dealt, versus the contracts, versus the performance expectations.

 

That's just it though, both of those guys are actually worth giving up something for. Wilkerson has a much better OBP and more power (last season's forearm injury notwithstanding), while Mench is younger than Jones and already produces as well if not better.

 

I'm not bashing Jones, at least not intentionally. He is what he is, and there's really no mistaking what he does and doesn't bring to the table. What I am doing is stating what should be obvious...it's a bad contract and there were other options available for less time and possibly less money.

 

Is there a chance Jones can turn things around and get back to at least the numbers he posted in 2002 and 2003? Certainly. I just don't understand how anyone can look at his 2004 and 2005 numbers and actually expect him to do so.

 

I sure as hell hope he proves me wrong. I really do.

[CubfaninCA]

Can't see this deal going down and good points about the Cubs not having the right type of starting pitcher for Philly. Perhaps Jerome Williams turns into the right type of guy by mid-July.

 

Am glad some people realize the lack of good RF's in the game. Also, Jones can be traded next year or moved to CF. Several teams had interest in him...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Can't see this deal going down and good points about the Cubs not having the right type of starting pitcher for Philly. Perhaps Jerome Williams turns into the right type of guy by mid-July.

 

Am glad some people realize the lack of good RF's in the game. Also, Jones can be traded next year or moved to CF. Several teams had interest in him...

 

Part of the appeal of people wanting Jones is that he didn't cost anything in players to acquire. Just because a couple teams were rumored to be interested in Jones doesn't guarantee any sort of market for him later.

[davearm]

I would've preferred a shorter contract for Jones too... I think everyone would. But it's not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be.

 

And there's a great chance it's not going to turn out to be as good as we all hope and pray that it will.

 

And this whole notion of trading him for junk and eating a bunch of contract is cynical to an extreme. It's not 100% implausible of course, but man, that's really pessimistic. He might end up being, you know, valuable, and perhaps even a bargain. I'm at least willing to give him a chance to stink it up before trashing him and banishing him to Sosaville.

 

How is it cynical? You tell me what team is going to give something of value up for Jacque Jones at his current level of production. Seriously, if any team is willing to deal something of actual value for Jones, then that means one of two things:

 

1. Jones is actually earning his contract and producing well.

2. Jim Bowden is the GM of the team he's being traded to.

 

Given his level of production the last two seasons, I'd say the chances of #1 aren't exactly in his favor.

 

And Mench or Wilkerson are certainly viable alternatives, but it's really 6 of one, a half-dozen of the other, by the time you get done factoring in the players that would need to be dealt, versus the contracts, versus the performance expectations.

 

That's just it though, both of those guys are actually worth giving up something for. Wilkerson has a much better OBP and more power (last season's forearm injury notwithstanding), while Mench is younger than Jones and already produces as well if not better.

 

I'm not bashing Jones, at least not intentionally. He is what he is, and there's really no mistaking what he does and doesn't bring to the table. What I am doing is stating what should be obvious...it's a bad contract and there were other options available for less time and possibly less money.

 

Is there a chance Jones can turn things around and get back to at least the numbers he posted in 2002 and 2003? Certainly. I just don't understand how anyone can look at his 2004 and 2005 numbers and actually expect him to do so.

 

I sure as hell hope he proves me wrong. I really do.

Is Mench the better route to take if you have to give up Williams to get him?

Is Wilkerson the better route to take if it costs Williams and Hill?

 

The answer to both questions, IMO, is "maybe".

 

Which gets me back to my original point -- Jones as a free agent is not appreciably better or worse than the guys you'd have to trade valuable pieces to get.

 

The bottom line here is that I'm cautiously optimistic on Jones, and with good reason (IMO); you're well within your rights not to be, and there's plenty of evidence to support that side too.

 

It's a classic half-full/half-empty debate, plain and simple.

[Backtobanks]

Can't see this deal going down and good points about the Cubs not having the right type of starting pitcher for Philly. Perhaps Jerome Williams turns into the right type of guy by mid-July.

 

Am glad some people realize the lack of good RF's in the game. Also, Jones can be traded next year or moved to CF. Several teams had interest in him...

 

Part of the appeal of people wanting Jones is that he didn't cost anything in players to acquire. Just because a couple teams were rumored to be interested in Jones doesn't guarantee any sort of market for him later.[/quote]

 

I think there will be a market for him. His salary isn't that bad and if Pie is ready, the Cubs could trade him for prospects. As a last resort, the Cubs could eat a little bit of his salary.

[goonys evil twin]

I think there will be a market for him. His salary isn't that bad and if Pie is ready, the Cubs could trade him for prospects. As a last resort, the Cubs could eat a little bit of his salary.

 

The Cubs don't eat salary. They were adamently opposed to the idea until the Sosa situation came up. Unfortunately, the Cubs like Jones. Hendry likes Jones. He's not going to trade him. He didn't sign him with any intention to trade him. Jones could repeat his mediocre career stats every year and Hendry would be ecstatic. He wanted an athletic RF, not a productive one.

[JWCUB]

I just dont see why Hendry dont try to go after Manny. He is FAR FAR better than any OF'er that we have. I know how most people feel on this board, but his numbers dont lie. I read again today where the BoSox are trying to work out something with LAA. And yes, I know all the negatives. Contract, attitude, defense. If he produces, and the Cubs win, who cares? At least take a look see.

[CubfaninCA]

I just dont see why Hendry dont try to go after Manny. He is FAR FAR better than any OF'er that we have. I know how most people feel on this board, but his numbers dont lie. I read again today where the BoSox are trying to work out something with LAA. And yes, I know all the negatives. Contract, attitude, defense. If he produces, and the Cubs win, who cares? At least take a look see.

 

I don't think Manny wants to come to Chicago. :(

[JWCUB]

I just dont see why Hendry dont try to go after Manny. He is FAR FAR better than any OF'er that we have. I know how most people feel on this board, but his numbers dont lie. I read again today where the BoSox are trying to work out something with LAA. And yes, I know all the negatives. Contract, attitude, defense. If he produces, and the Cubs win, who cares? At least take a look see.

 

I don't think Manny wants to come to Chicago. :(

 

I have never heard him say "I dont want to play for the Chicago Cubs." :wink:

[Backtobanks]

I think there will be a market for him. His salary isn't that bad and if Pie is ready, the Cubs could trade him for prospects. As a last resort, the Cubs could eat a little bit of his salary.

 

The Cubs don't eat salary. They were adamently opposed to the idea until the Sosa situation came up. Unfortunately, the Cubs like Jones. Hendry likes Jones. He's not going to trade him. He didn't sign him with any intention to trade him. Jones could repeat his mediocre career stats every year and Hendry would be ecstatic. He wanted an athletic RF, not a productive one.

 

Hendry needed a RF this year and had to give Jones a 3-year deal to match other offers. If Pie is ready next year, he will be the athletic and productive RF that Hendry wants and Jones will be traded. As much as Hendry likes Jones, he is gaga over Pie.

[Andy]

I think there will be a market for him. His salary isn't that bad and if Pie is ready, the Cubs could trade him for prospects. As a last resort, the Cubs could eat a little bit of his salary.

 

The Cubs don't eat salary. They were adamently opposed to the idea until the Sosa situation came up. Unfortunately, the Cubs like Jones. Hendry likes Jones. He's not going to trade him. He didn't sign him with any intention to trade him. Jones could repeat his mediocre career stats every year and Hendry would be ecstatic. He wanted an athletic RF, not a productive one.

 

Hendry needed a RF this year and had to give Jones a 3-year deal to match other offers. If Pie is ready next year, he will be the athletic and productive RF that Hendry wants and Jones will be traded. As much as Hendry likes Jones, he is gaga over Pie.

This is a good point. Jacque Jones may fit the Jim Hendry mold pretty well, but the fact is that Hendry likes Pie as much or more than he liked Corey Patterson. Once he feels Pie is ready I'm sure Felix will get every chance to get a starting job.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I just dont see why Hendry dont try to go after Manny. He is FAR FAR better than any OF'er that we have. I know how most people feel on this board, but his numbers dont lie. I read again today where the BoSox are trying to work out something with LAA. And yes, I know all the negatives. Contract, attitude, defense. If he produces, and the Cubs win, who cares? At least take a look see.

 

The Cubs aren't a match in a trade for Manny. Did you see what the Red Sox were rumored to have asked the Angels for?

 

In today's LA Times, supposedly the Red Sox wanted Chone Figgins, Ervin Santana, and two of the top prospects in the system from the group of Kotchman, Wood, etc. in addition to the Angels picking up all of the 57 million owed to Manny.

 

That would be equivalent to the Cubs giving up Murton, Jerome Williams, and since we don't have prospects as highly rated as the Angles...add Felix Pie, Rich Hill, and probably one or two more to get Manny with the Cubs picking up all of Manny's money.

 

I'd love to have Manny in this line-up, but not at the player and salary price it will take to acquire him.

[JWCUB]

I just dont see why Hendry dont try to go after Manny. He is FAR FAR better than any OF'er that we have. I know how most people feel on this board, but his numbers dont lie. I read again today where the BoSox are trying to work out something with LAA. And yes, I know all the negatives. Contract, attitude, defense. If he produces, and the Cubs win, who cares? At least take a look see.

 

The Cubs aren't a match in a trade for Manny. Did you see what the Red Sox were rumored to have asked the Angels for?

 

In today's LA Times, supposedly the Red Sox wanted Chone Figgins, Ervin Santana, and two of the top prospects in the system from the group of Kotchman, Wood, etc. in addition to the Angels picking up all of the 57 million owed to Manny.

 

That would be equivalent to the Cubs giving up Murton, Jerome Williams, and since we don't have prospects as highly rated as the Angles...add Felix Pie, Rich Hill, and probably one or two more to get Manny with the Cubs picking up all of Manny's money.

 

I'd love to have Manny in this line-up, but not at the player and salary price it will take to acquire him.

 

I would be ok with Pie, Hill, Williams, Mutron, and say a Sing or lower level prospect. But the Sox would have to share the contract somehow.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I just dont see why Hendry dont try to go after Manny. He is FAR FAR better than any OF'er that we have. I know how most people feel on this board, but his numbers dont lie. I read again today where the BoSox are trying to work out something with LAA. And yes, I know all the negatives. Contract, attitude, defense. If he produces, and the Cubs win, who cares? At least take a look see.

 

The Cubs aren't a match in a trade for Manny. Did you see what the Red Sox were rumored to have asked the Angels for?

 

In today's LA Times, supposedly the Red Sox wanted Chone Figgins, Ervin Santana, and two of the top prospects in the system from the group of Kotchman, Wood, etc. in addition to the Angels picking up all of the 57 million owed to Manny.

 

That would be equivalent to the Cubs giving up Murton, Jerome Williams, and since we don't have prospects as highly rated as the Angles...add Felix Pie, Rich Hill, and probably one or two more to get Manny with the Cubs picking up all of Manny's money.

 

I'd love to have Manny in this line-up, but not at the player and salary price it will take to acquire him.

 

I would be ok with Pie, Hill, Williams, Mutron, and say a Sing or lower level prospect. But the Sox would have to share the contract somehow.

 

The Sox wouldn't give him for that, and if they did they would expect the Cubs to assume all the money.

 

So, you're in agreement that the player cost combined with the money makes Manny unaquirable.

[JWCUB]

I just dont see why Hendry dont try to go after Manny. He is FAR FAR better than any OF'er that we have. I know how most people feel on this board, but his numbers dont lie. I read again today where the BoSox are trying to work out something with LAA. And yes, I know all the negatives. Contract, attitude, defense. If he produces, and the Cubs win, who cares? At least take a look see.

 

The Cubs aren't a match in a trade for Manny. Did you see what the Red Sox were rumored to have asked the Angels for?

 

In today's LA Times, supposedly the Red Sox wanted Chone Figgins, Ervin Santana, and two of the top prospects in the system from the group of Kotchman, Wood, etc. in addition to the Angels picking up all of the 57 million owed to Manny.

 

That would be equivalent to the Cubs giving up Murton, Jerome Williams, and since we don't have prospects as highly rated as the Angles...add Felix Pie, Rich Hill, and probably one or two more to get Manny with the Cubs picking up all of Manny's money.

 

I'd love to have Manny in this line-up, but not at the player and salary price it will take to acquire him.

 

I would be ok with Pie, Hill, Williams, Mutron, and say a Sing or lower level prospect. But the Sox would have to share the contract somehow.

 

The Sox wouldn't give him for that, and if they did they would expect the Cubs to assume all the money.

 

So, you're in agreement that the player cost combined with the money makes Manny unaquirable.

Unfortunatly.....yes. But it would be nice if Jimbo would at least ask.

[JWCUB]

Vance, let me pose this question to you. Play GM for a minute. What would you as GM give up to Boston to get Manny in return. That you think they would except. Same with Abreu and Philly.

[USSoccer]

Vance, let me pose this question to you. Play GM for a minute. What would you as GM give up to Boston to get Manny in return. That you think they would except. Same with Abreu and Philly.

 

I'm not Vance, but Philly would be stupid not to accept Williams, Pie and Hill for Abreu.

 

Boston's in a different spot. They don't have to deal Manny, since they can afford him, but if they can fleece a team, they'll deal him. My guess is it would take Lee, Williams, Cedeno, Hill and Harvey with the Cubs picking up at least 75% of his salary. And I wouldn't touch it with a 10 ft pole.