Tim Wilken is new Cubs Director of Scouting

[UK1679666180]

The hardest thing to do is convince some 18-19 year olds that their way isn't going to make them successful in MLB. They have had success all their lives and getting them to buy into a different approach is often difficult.

 

But, it's much easier at that stage rather than doing it with someone early on in their pro career rather than later. If a team drafted a HS and a college player with similar recognition problems (assuming similar makeups), the team will have a better chance of improving upon the HS athlete rather than the collegiate one, simply b/c he will have had the 3-4 years to improve upon that.

[CuseCubFan69]

The hardest thing to do is convince some 18-19 year olds that their way isn't going to make them successful in MLB. They have had success all their lives and getting them to buy into a different approach is often difficult.

 

But, it's much easier at that stage rather than doing it with someone early on in their pro career rather than later. If a team drafted a HS and a college player with similar recognition problems (assuming similar makeups), the team will have a better chance of improving upon the HS athlete rather than the collegiate one, simply b/c he will have had the 3-4 years to improve upon that.

 

I agree 100% that the older a player is the harder it is for him to break his bad habits or learn a new one.

[cubweiser03]

Im good with a a guy who is tools oriented to be the director of scouting. I like for the system to lean tools oriented and the front office to be more stat oriented. "Traditional" scouts i believe are better judges of younger talent that stat oriented dudes are. I want upside in the draft and stats dont really tell that story. The front office should lean a little more stat oriented since the players (free agents and mlb players in trades) are older and have more 'data' available.

 

This dudes resume sounds good.

[CuseCubFan69]

correct me if I'm wrong, but that looks like a very tools oriented list to me.

 

Gross, Hill, and Adams are all pretty solid statistically, I don't know what their tools are.

 

Gross has average speed...good arm and is a 15/280 kind of hitter

 

Adams is about the same with a little less power but a little more speed

 

Hill has the potential to hit 20 HR's and has a decent arm and decent speed.

 

All 3 have nothing outstanding but all are solid players that can help a team win.

[WrigleyinEngland]

What does the new guy have to play with??. Did we lose some of our picks due to FA signings?. Could somebody tell me what numbers we draft at?? Many thanks in advance......

[CuseCubFan69]

What does the new guy have to play with??. Did we lose some of our picks due to FA signings?. Could somebody tell me what numbers we draft at?? Many thanks in advance......

 

The Cubs have a first round pick and not another until the 5th I believe.

 

I'm more curious on how Wilkens drafts in the latter rounds and what kind of gems he finds there especially if Hendry keeps losing draft picks by signing free agents.

[UK1679666180]

Im good with a a guy who is tools oriented to be the director of scouting. I like for the system to lean tools oriented and the front office to be more stat oriented. "Traditional" scouts i believe are better judges of younger talent that stat oriented dudes are. I want upside in the draft and stats dont really tell that story. The front office should lean a little more stat oriented since the players (free agents and mlb players in trades) are older and have more 'data' available.

 

This dudes resume sounds good.

 

Stat guys don't scout, they look thru the numbers and likely send an area scout or for the extreme examples, send a cross-checker. The team itself would be more likely to draft a player who in college was very productive but only avg. across the board with his tools, rather than a team who been less of an emphasis on his overall numbers compared to his tools.

 

But, even the "saber" teams rely on their scouts just with a different value system than the traditional teams.

 

I do agree that they should go with the best player avail. and I value the BPA as the one with the highest ceiling.

[UK1679666180]

What does the new guy have to play with??. Did we lose some of our picks due to FA signings?. Could somebody tell me what numbers we draft at?? Many thanks in advance......

 

The Cubs have a first round pick and not another until the 5th I believe.

 

I'm more curious on how Wilkens drafts in the latter rounds and what kind of gems he finds there especially if Hendry keeps losing draft picks by signing free agents.

 

I just wonder if he'll be able to improve the International scouting & development.

 

Stockstill has done a solid as far as drafting, even when the Cubs had what could be considered as a top farm system, it wasn't strong as far as draft picks. Prior was the strong pick, the strength was from the players from Venezuela (Zambrano), Korea (Choi), & Dominican Rep. (Cruz).

[CuseCubFan69]

What does the new guy have to play with??. Did we lose some of our picks due to FA signings?. Could somebody tell me what numbers we draft at?? Many thanks in advance......

 

The Cubs have a first round pick and not another until the 5th I believe.

 

I'm more curious on how Wilkens drafts in the latter rounds and what kind of gems he finds there especially if Hendry keeps losing draft picks by signing free agents.

 

I just wonder if he'll be able to improve the International scouting & development.

 

Stockstill has done a solid as far as drafting, even when the Cubs had what could be considered as a top farm system, it wasn't strong as far as draft picks. Prior was the strong pick, the strength was from the players from Venezuela (Zambrano), Korea (Choi), & Dominican Rep. (Cruz).

 

I always considered one of the Jays main strengths is to aquire/draft players south of the States. I can't think of any Asian players in the organization though.

[UK1679666180]

Players like Delgado, Rios, Hudson, etc.. are examples of the last decade. I assume Serra is still in charge down there and plenty will depend on allocation towards signing the top tier players. Teams like the Dodgers, Braves, and the Yankees (moreso in the 90s) have very good scouts with a great budget down there, you need both to have success. If the Cubs don't have a sufficent amount of resources, they'll never get achieve maximum production.

[CuseCubFan69]

Players like Delgado, Rios, Hudson, etc.. are examples of the last decade. I assume Serra is still in charge down there and plenty will depend on allocation towards signing the top tier players. Teams like the Dodgers, Braves, and the Yankees (moreso in the 90s) have very good scouts with a great budget down there, you need both to have success. If the Cubs don't have a sufficent amount of resources, they'll never get achieve maximum production.

 

I agree and I hope the Cubs will spend the necessary cash to make this work.

 

I remember watching Delgado catch when he was here. He wasn't that bad and he was better than Piazza. I think he hurt his shoulder and was moved to first.

[WrigleyinEngland]

Thats a hell of alot of players going in rounds 2-5. Did we lose those picks for Howry , Eyer and Pie???

[CuseCubFan69]

Thats a hell of alot of players going in rounds 2-5. Did we lose those picks for Howry , Eyer and Pie???

 

Pie? If the Cubs lost a pick on a guy they already had Hendry should be fired and now! :D

 

I think you mean Jones, right? And yes.

[WrigleyinEngland]

Sorry my bad i was in a delusional world where we waited until next year to get pierre as a FA and didn't give up 3 pitchers for him. Then it turned in to a nightmare when you wrote the Jones word.....oh happy days!!!!

[CubDad4Ever]

UK, i love your take, i just finished reading A Scouts Honor. in 3 days. Great read an anti moneyball take on Atlanta and other like minded teams success through scouting based orginization. The point im going to make is the Braves and Royals with Schuerholz (Orioles in 66 through 72) was 1. Draft best player available. ( scout quantified) A. upside potential, play to strength of draft and mostly high school players. Their feeling is they want to develoup the player and feel confident their system can do so. I think that what you were basically saying. Jim Callis validated there theory with a baseball america study. It made me think we are breaking down positionally with either poor scouting on positional players. or poor develoupment. Or a combo. Whats your take UK God Bless and thanks for the insight Coach L

[CubinNY]

UK, i love your take, i just finished reading A Scouts Honor. in 3 days. Great read an anti moneyball take on Atlanta and other like minded teams success through scouting based orginization. The point im going to make is the Braves and Royals with Schuerholz (Orioles in 66 through 72) was 1. Draft best player available. ( scout quantified) A. upside potential, play to strength of draft and mostly high school players. Their feeling is they want to develoup the player and feel confident their system can do so. I think that what you were basically saying. Jim Callis validated there theory with a baseball america study. It made me think we are breaking down positionally with either poor scouting on positional players. or poor develoupment. Or a combo. Whats your take UK God Bless and thanks for the insight Coach L

 

I'm not UK but I will take a crack on my theory. Scouting is a talent that is very difficult to teach, it is more of an art then a science. Some people are virtuosos and some people are one step below and so on on down the line. I think the Braves have some virtuoso scouts. I think they also probably have good player development. Bottom line, unless a team is planning to hire away the same scouts as the Braves they probably shouldn't rely on that formula. There is only one Yo Yo Ma or Motzart. And there is only one Schuerholz. I think the Braves have proved that they are the exception to the rule. For every Braves team there are teams like the Cubs, Mets, Reds, Royals, amd Tigers that try to copy the Braves.

[CubDad4Ever]

CubinNY, I think part of what you say is dead on . Im a high school coach , who believes there is a science (strategy,bio mechanics and practice plans) and an art to seeing and encourging "makeup" I agree the Braves are the best at what they do. I dont agree that makes it a bad policy to try to emulate them. Hendry had had great success procuring pitchers with makeup . Thats the Braves number 1 tennent in their philosophy. 5 all start under 28 as of last year is amazing (Wood, Prior , Z, Garland, Willis) plus other big league arms, that have allowed us to be competitive. He has to be given credit for that , no matter how frustrated we get with injuries or results. Paitence is one of the elements the Braves preach thoughout the book. To agree with you again CuBinNY , i think some other approachs need to be looked at in drafting positional talent. College guys with numbers ? Im willing to do anything that nets us more than 1 consistant pos player in 15 years. Cedeno would be the 2nd . God Bless and great take CubinNy Coach L

[goonys evil twin]

Hendry had had great success procuring pitchers with makeup . Thats the Braves number 1 tennent in their philosophy. 5 all start under 28 as of last year is amazing (Wood, Prior, Z, Garland, Willis) plus other big league arms, that have allowed us to be competitive. He has to be given credit for that , no matter how frustrated we get with injuries or results.

 

Why would Hendry get credit for Wood or Garland? Wood came along in the prior regime. Garland was drafted when Hendry was in charge of scouting, but he was traded a year later for a dime a dozen reliever. Willis was drafted when Hendry was scouting director, then traded when he was assistant GM. And there wasn't much scouting going on in the Prior situation. I give Cubs brass credit for Zambrano, and for finding Willis. But they gave up Dontrelle too easily to be given credit for his rise.

[UK1679666180]

UK, i love your take, i just finished reading A Scouts Honor. in 3 days. Great read an anti moneyball take on Atlanta and other like minded teams success through scouting based orginization. The point im going to make is the Braves and Royals with Schuerholz (Orioles in 66 through 72) was 1. Draft best player available. ( scout quantified) A. upside potential, play to strength of draft and mostly high school players. Their feeling is they want to develoup the player and feel confident their system can do so. I think that what you were basically saying. Jim Callis validated there theory with a baseball america study. It made me think we are breaking down positionally with either poor scouting on positional players. or poor develoupment. Or a combo. Whats your take UK God Bless and thanks for the insight Coach L

 

If the primary thing you got from "Scout's Honor" was that its purpose was anti-Moneyball, I don't think you got everything from the book that you should've. I thought it was a mistake by Shanks to keep mentioning "Moneyball" and how it differs from the Braves' perspective. This is separate than how Schuerholz feels, who has been quoted as saying that teams who rely more data analysis are closer to teams that are weighted more by skills analysis than most think they are. In the same boat, I think Lewis (not Beane) incorrectly tried to devalue scouts in general. To me, scouts are the lifeline of baseball.

 

Don't let the writers dictate the story of the success for the Braves and A's, Lewis wrote Moneyball, Shanks wrote Scout's Honor. The A's rely heavily on scouts and the Braves rely heavily on data analysis.

 

As far as why the Cubs haven't been successful at developing position players, they have been very pitcher heavy in the early rounds. With Reed and Harvey, they are probably the two more toolsy players drafted out of HS recently, you can throw Johnston into the mix as well.

 

I think the instructors down at Mesa and Boise have to prepare the hitters better for what's going to happen at Peoria and give Zisk and Joshua a solid foundation from which to work with.

 

Of course, the Cubs have to get better at signing players Internationally again. Right now, their top prospects are mostly coming from the draft and they're drafting from a short stack w/picks being spent on FA.

 

To answer your question, it's probably a combo.

 

Quoting Tom House on a pitcher's mechanics "You're only as strong as your weakest link". If they're doing a good job of drafting high ceiling position players and not able to develop them, you can never tell that they're drafting the right guy and vice versa.

Edited January 30, 2006 by UK

[CubDad4Ever]

Gooney, I will have to agree, to disagree on Hendry. I think drafting and developing players still deserves credit. The Braves resisted taking Todd Van Poppel , everyones number 1 . When they took Chipper. Texeria , was a very viable other choice in Priors year. I do think the cubs have done well with pitching. You can not like the Trades or Results , but that does not negate the drafting and bringing along good talent . Those are two different element.s Goony , do you know if Wood was drafted while Hendry was affiliated with the Cubs. Thanks and God Bless . Good Take Goony P.S i said earlier . i think they have stunk in the positional aspect of the equation and it has handicapped them.

[CubDad4Ever]

UK , sorry for not being lengthy enough on my take of "scouts honor" . I said in another discussion, that i believe the truth lies somewhere in between moneyball and Shanks work. I loved them both . I did not buy the extemes in either. I agree and value your takes on this aspect of the orginization. I have enjoyed the research you obviously have put into your posts over the years. God Bless and i really think your right this would be a great year to go after the international channel , with some fervor . Given our lack of draft picks this year, that would seem prudent and we should have money to burn. Coach L

[UK1679666180]

CubinNY, I think part of what you say is dead on . Im a high school coach , who believes there is a science (strategy,bio mechanics and practice plans) and an art to seeing and encourging "makeup" I agree the Braves are the best at what they do. I dont agree that makes it a bad policy to try to emulate them. Hendry had had great success procuring pitchers with makeup . Thats the Braves number 1 tennent in their philosophy. 5 all start under 28 as of last year is amazing (Wood, Prior , Z, Garland, Willis) plus other big league arms, that have allowed us to be competitive. He has to be given credit for that , no matter how frustrated we get with injuries or results. Paitence is one of the elements the Braves preach thoughout the book. To agree with you again CuBinNY , i think some other approachs need to be looked at in drafting positional talent. College guys with numbers ? Im willing to do anything that nets us more than 1 consistant pos player in 15 years. Cedeno would be the 2nd . God Bless and great take CubinNy Coach L

 

If you look at players like Ben Christensen, Sisco, & Ryu you'll find players with questionable make-up.

 

Now, if you're talking about a pitcher's skill-set as far as his makeup, every team loves a mid 90s heavy FB and the ability to spin a breaking pitch.

[CubDad4Ever]

UK , once again great examples , delivered in a milisecond. I coached a guy 10 years ago in hs football , who ended up number1 in the draft (probably in spite of my coaching) The point is he was a backup in the fs and jv levels . He sat again 3 years in college. He has gotten smashed a ton in the NFL and keeps on keeping on. I read the book this weekend and thought of him as my lesson 1 in makeup. Driven people who can handle adversity with talent can do amazing things. You are so right about Sisco from what i read. UK , this will be tough > Give your 5 best in our system combining talent and makeup . Gods Peace and thanks for all your great takes. Coach L

[BigbadB]

Gooney, I will have to agree, to disagree on Hendry. I think drafting and developing players still deserves credit. The Braves resisted taking Todd Van Poppel , everyones number 1 . When they took Chipper. Texeria , was a very viable other choice in Priors year. I do think the cubs have done well with pitching. You can not like the Trades or Results , but that does not negate the drafting and bringing along good talent . Those are two different element.s Goony , do you know if Wood was drafted while Hendry was affiliated with the Cubs. Thanks and God Bless . Good Take Goony P.S i said earlier . i think they have stunk in the positional aspect of the equation and it has handicapped them.

 

Didn't Teixiera's value dip a bit due to a broken leg? Without the broken leg, Tex may have been the Cubs #1 pick. He was certainly being talked up as the Cubs #1 pick. Or did he break his leg the previous year and he elected to stay in school? Years start blending together as you get older I guess.

[UK1679666180]

Talent and makeup...

 

Pie is #1, he has the highest ceiling in the system be far, but his approach to the game is just as special.

 

Fuld is a sleeper, he's not the most talented, but he's a hard worker.

 

Marshall is another one, very gifted, done well to add some bulk to his frame.

 

Gallagher (biased), he's has done very well and is a hard worker and a good teammate.

 

Players like Greenberg and Theriot as welll as Bacon, might not have as much talent as they need, but are great teammates.