cbssportsline w/ some kind words about the cubs' offseason

[neely crenshaw]

first, i had figured it during the season during some maddux vs prior topics. i thought it was above 5- however i refigured and from july 1 it was 4.88.

51 earned runs in 94 innings. feel free to do the math. i do not think it is a given that he returns to form. he spent 17 starts throwing too many pitches and not having command. we all know his pitch total was very high and very unprior like but with a large sample size it may not be a fad but a trend. let's hope not but i think you are naive to think that you know for sure that prior will return to his 18-6 form of 2 years ago.

[noisesquared]

the problem with comparing our staff with the rest of our division is that we have built a team that is so entirely dependent on our pitching.

 

Wild Card/NL Champ Houston's not dependant on pitching? And they lost Clemens. And Pettite had a ridiculous year, that will be near impossible to duplicate. The Cubs with even a decent run of health - give them a healthy Z, Prior and either Wood or Miller available all year, Maddux as a #4, and WilliamsRuschHill at #5, and the SP is very good. If the bullpen pans out, this is a playoff caliber staff, even with a mediocre offense. I bet before last season, the Cards had similar concerns: can Carpenter stay healthy? Will Morris come back from surgery? Is Mulder's hip ok? It worked out well enough for them.

[stitchface]

the cubs have a lot more depth this year. if some of the IFs don't work out they are still in better shape than last year. and the pen could be very good. combine that with better offensive production and this team should be markedly improved. I am willing to bet the cardinals don't have their top five starters all year again either.

[goonys evil twin]

first, i had figured it during the season during some maddux vs prior topics. i thought it was above 5- however i refigured and from july 1 it was 4.88.

51 earned runs in 94 innings. feel free to do the math. i do not think it is a given that he returns to form. he spent 17 starts throwing too many pitches and not having command. we all know his pitch total was very high and very unprior like but with a large sample size it may not be a fad but a trend. let's hope not but i think you are naive to think that you know for sure that prior will return to his 18-6 form of 2 years ago.

 

The reason for the discrepency between his post July 1 numbers, and his post all star break numbers were the two bad starts on July 1 and July 7. 9 ER in 9 2/3 innings pitched. Those were also his 2nd and 3rd starts after returning from injury. The fact that his post all star numbers were better has to suggest to you that maybe those two games were outliers, and that after injury he returned to the sub 4.00 ERA level he has always been.

 

I don't know what is so "un-Prior like" with high pitch counts. In 2005 he averaged 16.9 pitches per innings pitched. From 2002-2004 he was 17.3, 16.1, 17.3. He threw 104.7 pitches per game, down from his career average of 106.4.

 

I think you are failing to take into account the full picture on Prior. Certainly he's no lock for 34 starts, a 3.00 ERA, 20 wins 250 IP, 300 K and 75 BB. But the guy should be very good in 2006, and he's capable of being great this year. The problem is the Cubs need him to be great to have much of a chance to win.

[goonys evil twin]

the cubs have a lot more depth this year. if some of the IFs don't work out they are still in better shape than last year. and the pen could be very good. combine that with better offensive production and this team should be markedly improved. I am willing to bet the cardinals don't have their top five starters all year again either.

 

I don't see better offensive production, at least not significantly better.

 

 

Where is the IF depth? And where are they better off than last year if somebody goes down? If Cedeno goes down, Neifi starts all year, and they're screwed. If Aramis goes down, they're screwed. If Lee goes down, they're screwed. They have the same 2B depth this year that they had last year, but this year they might make the mistake of getting rid of the top 2B on the team for no good reason. They could simply give a lesser player an undeserved platoon with him, or even worse, the full-time gig.

[neely crenshaw]

boys, i'llhave to eat crow on this one..i was checking my stats and realized i totaled runs not earned runs..don't have time to check now but will see where it is later...my apologies!

 

yes, houston is dependent on pitching. but they have had healthy pitchers save for pettite's first year. they are also only the wildcard team and have done it 2 years in row. the cards had questions but they also had an offense that far kicked our arse! they were never dependent on just pitching. we are talking about having a staff that will take us to the world series not might. we might have had a staff in 1984 and so on...we had the staff in 2004 and 2005 we just filled out roster full of bozos and ?'s. now our givens appear to be questions.

 

i am not saying we can't go to the world series. i am saying that we are more likely(or just as likely) to lose 90 and be done before the trade deadline as we are to win the league. we are too dependent on the moon and stars aligning and all the breaks going our ways. yes, many teams have the same questions but not very many have the patroll we do. i hate to say it but i'm sure white sox and cardinal fans feel pretty sure they will be in the playoffs next year. things may not go that way but i just wish i felt we had put together a team that will compete not might compete

[Magnetic Curses]

first, i had figured it during the season during some maddux vs prior topics. i thought it was above 5- however i refigured and from july 1 it was 4.88.

51 earned runs in 94 innings. feel free to do the math. i do not think it is a given that he returns to form. he spent 17 starts throwing too many pitches and not having command. we all know his pitch total was very high and very unprior like but with a large sample size it may not be a fad but a trend. let's hope not but i think you are naive to think that you know for sure that prior will return to his 18-6 form of 2 years ago.

 

here we go, prior has fallen into the very same trap that woody fell into when he struck out 20.

 

the guy took a line drive off his PITCHING ELBOW! he came back to finish the season as our second best pitcher.

 

does he need to tweak his approach as hitters tweak their approaches to him? of course. and he'll do it.

[stitchface]

the cubs have a lot more depth this year. if some of the IFs don't work out they are still in better shape than last year. and the pen could be very good. combine that with better offensive production and this team should be markedly improved. I am willing to bet the cardinals don't have their top five starters all year again either.

 

I don't see better offensive production, at least not significantly better.

 

 

Where is the IF depth? And where are they better off than last year if somebody goes down? If Cedeno goes down, Neifi starts all year, and they're screwed. If Aramis goes down, they're screwed. If Lee goes down, they're screwed. They have the same 2B depth this year that they had last year, but this year they might make the mistake of getting rid of the top 2B on the team for no good reason. They could simply give a lesser player an undeserved platoon with him, or even worse, the full-time gig.

 

that was in reference to the pitching staff in terms of depth. This could be a very nasty staff. and while there are a lot of ifs, there are also a lot of alternatives.

 

I think Aramis going down is my biggest fear. They need he and Lee playing nearly everyday. I do think they have flexibility to make a deal if they need to though. The biggest improvement will come from luck. A full season of Aramis and Pierre replacing Corey will offset some of Lee's rregression and hopefully Murton will outproduce last year's LF. With average luck, the Cubs would have scored 64 more runs last year. I don't think its unreasonable to assume they make up 50 of those and score 750 or so this year. 725-775 seems like a reasonable range.

 

The pitching staff is potentially dominant and could allow less than 650 runs, perhaps even fewer.

 

The offseason has been bleak for the Devil Cubs mostly because they simply failed to take steps to be a dominant club. Nevertheless, this season is not hopeless. 90 wins is a real possibility and more is not unimaginable.

[CubfaninCA]

How many teams in the NL are clearly better than the Cubs? The Cardinals, Braves and?????????? Houston may not have Clemens. Florida gutted their roster. No one in the NL West is very good. Altogether, most of the team's in the NL have question marks just like the Cubs. All the hatin is premature.

[goonys evil twin]

i am not saying we can't go to the world series. i am saying that we are more likely(or just as likely) to lose 90 and be done before the trade deadline as we are to win the league.

 

I'm probably among the most pessimistic Cubs fan after seeing what Hendry has failed to do the past 2 offseasons, but I can't agree with you here. For them to lose 90 they would have to have nearly unprecedented bad luck. I mean seriously, they gave 600 PA to Neifi last year and didn't get close to 90 losses. They started the year with the worst OF possible and didn't come close to 90. They could sleepwalk their way to a 75-78 win season. I don't think these guys are at risk of drafting in the top 5 next year.

 

As I've said before, I think this team has locked in its mediocrity. I think they are a pretty safe bet to be around .500. The problem is not that they might lose 90, the problem is they've given themselves a very small chance of winning more than 90.

[Magnetic Curses]

i am not saying we can't go to the world series. i am saying that we are more likely(or just as likely) to lose 90 and be done before the trade deadline as we are to win the league.

 

I'm probably among the most pessimistic Cubs fan after seeing what Hendry has failed to do the past 2 offseasons, but I can't agree with you here. For them to lose 90 they would have to have nearly unprecedented bad luck. I mean seriously, they gave 600 PA to Neifi last year and didn't get close to 90 losses. They started the year with the worst OF possible and didn't come close to 90. They could sleepwalk their way to a 75-78 win season. I don't think these guys are at risk of drafting in the top 5 next year.

 

As I've said before, I think this team has locked in its mediocrity. I think they are a pretty safe bet to be around .500. The problem is not that they might lose 90, the problem is they've given themselves a very small chance of winning more than 90.

 

i think this team has a decent shot to win 90+ if it's pitching remains healthy. however, if either or any combination of prior, wood, or z miss significant time, this offense doesn't have the juice to compete at even a basic level.

[CubfaninCA]

i am not saying we can't go to the world series. i am saying that we are more likely(or just as likely) to lose 90 and be done before the trade deadline as we are to win the league.

 

I'm probably among the most pessimistic Cubs fan after seeing what Hendry has failed to do the past 2 offseasons, but I can't agree with you here. For them to lose 90 they would have to have nearly unprecedented bad luck. I mean seriously, they gave 600 PA to Neifi last year and didn't get close to 90 losses. They started the year with the worst OF possible and didn't come close to 90. They could sleepwalk their way to a 75-78 win season. I don't think these guys are at risk of drafting in the top 5 next year.

 

As I've said before, I think this team has locked in its mediocrity. I think they are a pretty safe bet to be around .500. The problem is not that they might lose 90, the problem is they've given themselves a very small chance of winning more than 90.

 

So they're in the 76 to 86 win range? That's reasonable. Imo, with some real good luck where everything is clicking and there's few injuries, they can win over 90. With some real bad luck, they can lose 70 or less. I think teams like Houston, Philadephia, Washington, LA, SD, and NY fall under this as well. St. Louis & Atlanta will find some way to win 90+.

[goonys evil twin]

So they're in the 76 to 86 win range? That's reasonable. Imo, with some real good luck where everything is clicking and there's few injuries, they can win over 90. With some real bad luck, they can lose 70 or less. I think teams like Houston, Philadephia, Washington, LA, SD, and NY fall under this as well. St. Louis & Atlanta will find some way to win 90+.

 

I don't even see much risk for 76-79 wins. I think 80-86 is the highly probable range, with 87-92 quite possible, with an outside shot at 93+. I think Philly is at a big risk for decline if they don't find some starting pitching. The Mets are going to be better than last year's 83 win team.

 

I think all those other teams, plus Milwaukee will compete with the Cubs. And SF might be there as well if Bonds plays a full healthy season.

[BigbadB]

I'm picking the Dodgers in the NL West, so add them to the list. I know, sounds crazy, but even with questionable starting pitching, offense is what they have drastically improved on this offseason.

 

Furcal

Mueller

Drew

Kent

Cruz Jr.

Nomar

Werth

Navarro

 

Penny

Lowe

Perez

Tomko

Seo/Miller/Broxton

 

Nice pen with Lance Carter, DJ Houlton, Brazoban, Baez, Gagne

 

Nice bench with Choi, Saenz, Lofton, Repko, Robles, Izturis (eventually), Alomar

 

According to Odalis Perez' career history, he'll be good next year. Lowe was respectable. Penny isn't a great #1, but with a good offense and good bullpen, he doesn't need to be. Tomko and Seo will be alright end of the rotation filler until Miller and the other kids are ready.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm picking the Dodgers in the NL West, so add them to the list. I know, sounds crazy, but even with questionable starting pitching, offense is what they have drastically improved on this offseason.

 

For what it's worth, they were on the list, assuming you are talking about the one discussed in the posts just prior to yours.

[BigbadB]

Whoops. I have been caught browsing. :D

[CubfaninCA]

I'm picking the Dodgers in the NL West, so add them to the list. I know, sounds crazy, but even with questionable starting pitching, offense is what they have drastically improved on this offseason.

 

Furcal

Mueller

Drew

Kent

Cruz Jr.

Nomar

Werth

Navarro

 

Penny

Lowe

Perez

Tomko

Seo/Miller/Broxton

 

Nice pen with Lance Carter, DJ Houlton, Brazoban, Baez, Gagne

 

Nice bench with Choi, Saenz, Lofton, Repko, Robles, Izturis (eventually), Alomar

 

According to Odalis Perez' career history, he'll be good next year. Lowe was respectable. Penny isn't a great #1, but with a good offense and good bullpen, he doesn't need to be. Tomko and Seo will be alright end of the rotation filler until Miller and the other kids are ready.

 

I think they're the team to beat in the West., but lots of question marks w/ that squad. Drew, Nomar, Gagne & Penny have health issues. Perez was ticked off w/ them last year. Lowe had some off-da-field issues. There's only 5 or so sure fire teams in baseball coming into 2006: St. Louis, Atlanta, the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox. Not so sure about the Red Sox though.

[goonys evil twin]

I think they're the team to beat in the West., but lots of question marks w/ that squad. Drew, Nomar, Gagne & Penny have health issues. Perez was ticked off w/ them last year. Lowe had some off-da-field issues. There's only 5 or so sure fire teams in baseball coming into 2006: St. Louis, Atlanta, the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox. Not so sure about the Red Sox though.

 

The Red Sox have doubts, but only the type that make you wonder if they can win 95+ for the 4th straight year. They are pretty much a guarantee to at least flirt with 90.

[BigbadB]

If the Sox get Crisp, I like them in the NL East.

 

Crisp (62 XBH's from a lead off hitter ++ Constantly improving OBP)

Loretta (capable of .370+ OBP in friendly hitting Fenway)

Manny

Ortiz

Nixon

Lowell

Varitek

Snow/Youkilis

Cora/Gonzalez?

 

Schilling

Beckett

Clement

Wells

Wakefield

Arroyo

 

I think Foulke will bounce back this year.

 

This team will score a lot of runs.

[Tim]

If the Giants have Bonds healthy all year and if Cain is as good as he looked in 2005, they should win the west.

 

I fear AZ in a few years, though. I like the guys they have at the top end of their system much more than LA's more vaunted system. I'll take Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young and Carlos Gonzalez against any team's top 6 in baseball. In fact, I'll take that top six against any team's top six in the past five years.

 

If they can find pitching that can survive in AZ, they'll be monsters in a few years.

Edited January 27, 2006 by Tim

[goonys evil twin]

If the Sox get Crisp, I like them in the NL East.

 

AL East.

[Tim]

If the Sox get Crisp, I like them in the NL East.

 

Crisp (62 XBH's from a lead off hitter ++ Constantly improving OBP)

Loretta (capable of .370+ OBP in friendly hitting Fenway)

Manny

Ortiz

Nixon

Lowell

Varitek

Snow/Youkilis

Cora/Gonzalez?

 

Schilling

Beckett

Clement

Wells

Wakefield

Arroyo

 

I think Foulke will bounce back this year.

 

This team will score a lot of runs.

I think Hansen is closing by summertime. And I think he'll be very good at it. Also, don't be surprised if Lester or Papelbon is their third best pitcher by year end.

[CubfaninCA]

If the Sox get Crisp, I like them in the NL East.

 

Crisp (62 XBH's from a lead off hitter ++ Constantly improving OBP)

Loretta (capable of .370+ OBP in friendly hitting Fenway)

Manny

Ortiz

Nixon

Lowell

Varitek

Snow/Youkilis

Cora/Gonzalez?

 

Schilling

Beckett

Clement

Wells

Wakefield

Arroyo

 

I think Foulke will bounce back this year.

 

This team will score a lot of runs.

 

So the prognosis on Schilling's good?

[imb]

If the Giants have Bonds healthy all year and if Cain is as good as he looked in 2005, they should win the west.

 

I fear AZ in a few years, though. I like the guys they have at the top end of their system much more than LA's more vaunted system. I'll take Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young and Carlos Gonzalez against any team's top 6 in baseball. In fact, I'll take that top six against any team's top six in the past five years.

 

If they can find pitching that can survive in AZ, they'll be monsters in a few years.

 

Id like to see them matchup against the Angels top 6

[stitchface]

So they're in the 76 to 86 win range? That's reasonable. Imo, with some real good luck where everything is clicking and there's few injuries, they can win over 90. With some real bad luck, they can lose 70 or less. I think teams like Houston, Philadephia, Washington, LA, SD, and NY fall under this as well. St. Louis & Atlanta will find some way to win 90+.

 

I don't even see much risk for 76-79 wins. I think 80-86 is the highly probable range, with 87-92 quite possible, with an outside shot at 93+. I think Philly is at a big risk for decline if they don't find some starting pitching. The Mets are going to be better than last year's 83 win team.

 

I think all those other teams, plus Milwaukee will compete with the Cubs. And SF might be there as well if Bonds plays a full healthy season.

 

I'm a little more optimistic than that but not much. I would say 83-88 highly probable. I do think St. Louis is closer to 90 than 100 this year though and Houston finally drops back to .500.