Julio Lugo trade talk

[soapy]

Although I do think that Walker is more productive then Lugo, that doesn't bother as much as including Williams in the deal bothers me. I think he's a lot better then he's getting credit for from some people. He's young, cheap, and effective. Honestly, I prefer him to Hill (and even Guzman if you take injuries into account).

[WrigleyinEngland]

You can also look at value like this.Walker was a FA so cost us nothing except $. We got williams for Hawkins. Would you trade Latroy for Lugo??. If Hendry believes in Guzman/Hill as much as we are led to believe he has to give them a shot at the starting 5.

[WrigleyinEngland]

Anything on the ESPN 100 updates this morning?? Probably just another figmwent of levines imagination ' Here they come, here the come, here they come' a deluded Bruce Levine after the Sox won in Boston.

[Rooftop Bum]

I actually like this trade rumor. Walker is gone no matter what. Whether you want him to stick around or not Hendry wants to deal him and that's that. I don't know much about the whole wife beating issue. To be honest I am not so sure others guys on the team do not do some "questionable" things off the field.

 

The only bad thing here about giving up Walker is what if Cedeno can't hit a lick this season? He is a question mark even though everyone seems so high on him. Winter ball is one thing but MLB quite another. However, Lugo and Cedeno seems like a great duo defensively. I really like the idea of having Pierre and Lugo at the top of the order. If one or both can get on consistently that would be awesome. Walker can hit but he's not the best fielder and certainly can not run. Lugo can't hit as well as Walker but he does not seem to be a drastic drop off and can run and play defense.

 

I think it may make the Cubs a little bit better defensively and maybe offensively as well. For a guy like Walker that is leaving it's not a bad deal IMO.

[JeffH]

If Todd Walker gets traded to the TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS, I will clear my schedule to listen to his departing comments.

 

They ought to put that stuff on pay-per-view.

[WrigleyinEngland]

Can anyone get a zone rating or whatever that stat is that put JP and Cpat bottom in it on this guy!!!? i know Lugo made some errors but man can he make some plays.

[Soul]

Haha, isn't it amazing how players like Lugo suddenly become "blue-chip" trade prospects when nothing else is available?

[WrigleyinEngland]

I'm amazed by what tampa asks for guys. even players that can walk for nothing next year. The mets didn't do anyone any favours in that kazmir deal.

[USSoccer]

No way I trade Williams in that deal until I'm sure Wood is ready to go opening day. You can't rip apart your pitching depth just to ensure Neifi is on the bench. If Neifi's playing time presents this much of a problem, then he should never have been resigned.

[E.J.]

Don't forget the draft picks we'd get next year for Lugo if we don't re-sign him. The Cubs would definitely offer arbitration. Let's just hope that if a trade goes through that the Cubs don't try to sign Lugo to a long-term deal.

[RockTheIvy]

I really like Williams. As CPatterrrTransmogrifiedTiger pointed out, he is cheap with a very good ERA. However, is it possible that teams, for whatever reason, don't value him as much as they should? Shouldn't teams look at the Cubs and go, oh man, they've got seven or eight starters, let's try to deal for one of them?

 

One of my fears is that if we keep Williams, he'll be coming out of the bullpen, ruining his value. If the other player coming this way from Tampa is a mid level guy, I say do it.

[Lefty]

Todd Walker-.290/.348/.441

 

Julio Lugo-.276/.340/.400

 

I would make this trade in a HEARTBEAT. One thing no one really seems to mention when they talk about Lugo is his ability to steal bases. His numbers last year (and career numbers) for that matter, are just as good as Furcals. In fact, Lugo last year hit .314 with RISP and had a .384 OBP.

 

Even though Baker is not much of a base stealing type of manager, he's never really had any "natural" base stealers (and lets' not call CPatt a base stealer, he looked more lost on the bases then he did at the plate).

 

Now we can potentially have 2 (in Pierre and Lugo) to set the table for D-Lee and A-Ram. The havoc that those 2 guys can present on the base pads is something that doesn't show up on stat sheets. Getting into pitchers heads and having them lose just a "little" focus on the hitter can do wonders. Just the threat of stealing a base is enough. We would have our version of Pierre/Castillo, or Podsednik/Iguchi, Figgins/Cabrera (these are all combos that have been in the post season). Speed, it really does work everyone.....

 

I was under the impression that the Rays wanted a few kids from the farm (Hill, etc), but for Williams and Walker, if it were me, I'd pull the trigger in a "Heartbeat".......

 

Oh by the way, Walker last year hit .259 with RISP and had a .293 OBP. And he can't run worth a lick, and has absolutely NO range. He is nowhere near an ideal 2 hitter......Perhaps a 6,7 or 8, but definitely not a top of the order guy.

 

Beware of small sample sizes. Welcome to the board.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I know I'm chiming in late on this topic, but if we're trading Williams AND Walker, we had damn well better get something more valuable than Lugo and "an unnamed pitcher". Am I the only one who sees extremely little value in Lugo?

[Gunned]

Although I do think that Walker is more productive then Lugo, that doesn't bother as much as including Williams in the deal bothers me. I think he's a lot better then he's getting credit for from some people. He's young, cheap, and effective. Honestly, I prefer him to Hill (and even Guzman if you take injuries into account).

 

I agree with you there. I'd much rather trade Walker + Hill for Lugo. I think Williams will be our third best starter this year.

[E.J.]

Although I do think that Walker is more productive then Lugo, that doesn't bother as much as including Williams in the deal bothers me. I think he's a lot better then he's getting credit for from some people. He's young, cheap, and effective. Honestly, I prefer him to Hill (and even Guzman if you take injuries into account).

 

I agree with you there. I'd much rather trade Walker + Hill for Lugo. I think Williams will be our third best starter this year.

 

Seconded. Would much rather trade Hill than Williams. Plus, I think you could get a better prospect coming back by trading Hill since his trade value seems to be through the roof right now. Hendry needs to include Hill in a trade this offseason. Sell high for once.

Edited January 13, 2006 by E.J.

[oldcubsfan]

I think that Williams is the main piece of the trade for Tampa, not Walker. They want pitching. Walker is just a throw in to clear him off the roster.

[LuckyPup]

I am just getting sick of hearing about trades and them dragging on until they fizzle away-I like Williams too but you have to give something to get- we need a SS- Cedeno is capable but his numbers would look really good at 2B and only average'below average at SS-I think he will be a star in the league over the next few years. Lugo adds more speed and proven skill at the ML level- TWalk is gone-he has been gone since the season was over-for whatever reason i don't know but it is what it is-I would much rather lose him acquiring someone that is a known, proven commodity than a AA arm nobody knows-I have no excitement about this year at all-Lugo would just be another unexciting, ho-hum move for me, but is does make us better.....kinda-

[Wheelimus]

I'd imagine Walker is in the deal to make the money more even.

 

Hate the trade, but if they're dead set on trading Walker and the alternative is Neifury, then whatever.

 

But people are really looking way too much into what Lugo did last year. He may have a career .340 OBP, but he's only been above that TWICE in his career. That's what a career year will do for you.

 

Judging by his career lines, the real Julio Lugo is a .275/.330/.400/.730 hitter at best. And a .330 OBP in the 2 hole isn't exactly gold.

 

The only glimmer of hope I see is that last season his spike in production seems to be due to a reduction in strikeouts. 34 less than 2004, with more at bats! Maybe he's figured something out at 30 and will keep it up...

 

If we do this trade, we absolutely have to sign him to an extension though, Jerome Williams is not someone you trade for a rental. If he can put up a .280/.350/.400/.750 line, I can live with it

[E.J.]

I'd imagine Walker is in the deal to make the money more even.

 

Hate the trade, but if they're dead set on trading Walker and the alternative is Neifury, then whatever.

 

But people are really looking way too much into what Lugo did last year. He may have a career .340 OBP, but he's only been above that TWICE in his career. That's what a career year will do for you.

 

Judging by his career lines, the real Julio Lugo is a .275/.330/.400/.730 hitter at best. And a .330 OBP in the 2 hole isn't exactly gold.

 

The only glimmer of hope I see is that last season his spike in production seems to be due to a reduction in strikeouts. 34 less than 2004, with more at bats! Maybe he's figured something out at 30 and will keep it up...

 

If we do this trade, we absolutely have to sign him to an extension though, Jerome Williams is not someone you trade for a rental. If he can put up a .280/.350/.400/.750 line, I can live with it

 

Would you rather sign Lugo long-term or have the 1st round draft pick after offering him arbitration?

[SonnyD]

Todd Walker-.290/.348/.441

 

Julio Lugo-.276/.340/.400

 

I would make this trade in a HEARTBEAT. One thing no one really seems to mention when they talk about Lugo is his ability to steal bases. His numbers last year (and career numbers) for that matter, are just as good as Furcals. In fact, Lugo last year hit .314 with RISP and had a .384 OBP.

 

Even though Baker is not much of a base stealing type of manager, he's never really had any "natural" base stealers (and lets' not call CPatt a base stealer, he looked more lost on the bases then he did at the plate).

 

Now we can potentially have 2 (in Pierre and Lugo) to set the table for D-Lee and A-Ram. The havoc that those 2 guys can present on the base pads is something that doesn't show up on stat sheets. Getting into pitchers heads and having them lose just a "little" focus on the hitter can do wonders. Just the threat of stealing a base is enough. We would have our version of Pierre/Castillo, or Podsednik/Iguchi, Figgins/Cabrera (these are all combos that have been in the post season). Speed, it really does work everyone.....

 

I was under the impression that the Rays wanted a few kids from the farm (Hill, etc), but for Williams and Walker, if it were me, I'd pull the trigger in a "Heartbeat".......

 

Oh by the way, Walker last year hit .259 with RISP and had a .293 OBP. And he can't run worth a lick, and has absolutely NO range. He is nowhere near an ideal 2 hitter......Perhaps a 6,7 or 8, but definitely not a top of the order guy.

 

Beware of small sample sizes. Welcome to the board.

 

Thanks for the advice, and thanks for welcoming me. As for your concern on the "small sample size", I've analyzed Lugo's numbers over his career and had a LONG drawn out debate on another board about him.

 

If you look at Lugo's career numbers, you'll see what I'm talking about. In fact, Lugo has had a steady progression (albeit not a huge difference from year to year), but a steady upward progression nonetheless. I watch ALOT of baseball and Lugo CAN play. He certainly doesn't get the credit he deserves playing in Tampa.

 

As for his character issues, I've been fortunate enough to have been around many ballplayers, especially Cubs, and I have so many stories about alot of these guys I wouldn't even know where to begin. Believe me, Lugo is not the only one that has had these types of issues, unfortunately for him, he's been one of the few that's been caught......

 

I'll post (copy and paste) some interesting stats I came up with a few weeks back on Lugo next......

[goonys evil twin]

If you're trading Williams and Walker you probably have to get at least Lugo and Huff. Remember, this is part salary dump by Tampa.

 

I'm not a huge Williams fan, but the guy has value. He's not stud, but he's young affordable and pretty solid. He's as good a pitcher as Lugo is a SS, plus his age and cost make him more valuable. Walker is as good a middle infielder as Lugo as well. And remember, Williams and Rusch are already penciled in with Wood out. Now you've got to find another guy (Hill?) to take Williams' spot, and if/when Wood does come back you are still probably stuck with Rusch in the rotation, and that's not good.

[Gunned]

Todd Walker-.290/.348/.441

 

Julio Lugo-.276/.340/.400

 

I would make this trade in a HEARTBEAT. One thing no one really seems to mention when they talk about Lugo is his ability to steal bases. His numbers last year (and career numbers) for that matter, are just as good as Furcals. In fact, Lugo last year hit .314 with RISP and had a .384 OBP.

 

Even though Baker is not much of a base stealing type of manager, he's never really had any "natural" base stealers (and lets' not call CPatt a base stealer, he looked more lost on the bases then he did at the plate).

 

Now we can potentially have 2 (in Pierre and Lugo) to set the table for D-Lee and A-Ram. The havoc that those 2 guys can present on the base pads is something that doesn't show up on stat sheets. Getting into pitchers heads and having them lose just a "little" focus on the hitter can do wonders. Just the threat of stealing a base is enough. We would have our version of Pierre/Castillo, or Podsednik/Iguchi, Figgins/Cabrera (these are all combos that have been in the post season). Speed, it really does work everyone.....

 

I was under the impression that the Rays wanted a few kids from the farm (Hill, etc), but for Williams and Walker, if it were me, I'd pull the trigger in a "Heartbeat".......

 

Oh by the way, Walker last year hit .259 with RISP and had a .293 OBP. And he can't run worth a lick, and has absolutely NO range. He is nowhere near an ideal 2 hitter......Perhaps a 6,7 or 8, but definitely not a top of the order guy.

 

Beware of small sample sizes. Welcome to the board.

 

Thanks for the advice, and thanks for welcoming me. As for your concern on the "small sample size", I've analyzed Lugo's numbers over his career and had a LONG drawn out debate on another board about him.

 

If you look at Lugo's career numbers, you'll see what I'm talking about. In fact, Lugo has had a steady progression (albeit not a huge difference from year to year), but a steady upward progression nonetheless. I watch ALOT of baseball and Lugo CAN play. He certainly doesn't get the credit he deserves playing in Tampa.

 

As for his character issues, I've been fortunate enough to have been around many ballplayers, especially Cubs, and I have so many stories about alot of these guys I wouldn't even know where to begin. Believe me, Lugo is not the only one that has had these types of issues, unfortunately for him, he's been one of the few that's been caught......

 

I'll post (copy and paste) some interesting stats I came up with a few weeks back on Lugo next......

 

Oh, this ought to be good.

[BigbadB]

We'll be interested to hear these stories. In the meantime.....

 

Lugo at 5m >>>>Furcal at 13m or even at 10m (Cubs offer)

 

Lugo at 5m = Furcal at 5m

 

To me, they are practically the same player. It wouldn't have hurt my feelings if Hendry traded for Lugo and spent the big bucks on Giles in RF.

 

Lugo/Giles>>>>>>>>>>>>Furcal/Jones

 

Considering what Tampa wants for Lugo and that we already gave up too much to get Pierre, I think I'd rather stick with Walker at 2nd.

[LuckyPup]

Maybe-

 

Jwill+Walker+R.Hill for Huff and Lugo?

 

Sell high with Hill and dump Twalk( :evil: )and strengthen you bench and starting lineup a ton by moving Murton to platoon with Huff in LF and Lugo to SS-Huff also can spot Ramirez or Lee if God-forbid and injury occurs to one of them-

 

CF-Pierre

SS-Lugo

1B-lee

3B-Ramirez

LF-Huff/Murton

C-Barrett

RF-Jones

2B-Cedeno

 

Bench: Murton+Perez+Hairston+Grissom+Mabry+Blanco

[SonnyD]

Oh, this ought to be good. We'll be interested to hear these stories.

 

Not my style to get into all that, but there sure are some good ones....

 

Anyway, here is a thread I started a month back or so:

 

I find it interesting that no one has really discussed what counts most, situational hitting. Most notably BA with RISP, OBP with RISP, BA with RISP/2 OUTS, and OBP with RISP/2 OUTS.......

 

So I thought I'd put together the last 2 years averages for the following players: Tejada, Furcal, Julio Lugo, (as well as D-Lee, and A Ramirez to compare current Cubs). The first average is the BA, and the 2nd figure is the OBP. What I came up with is quite interesting.

 

Tejada:

RISP (AVG/OBP) .319/.371

RISP/2 OUTS .298/.376

 

Furcal:

RISP (AVG/OBP) .278/.383

RISP/2 OUTS .256/.401

 

Lugo:

RISP (AVG/OBP) .312/.369

RISP/2 OUTS .276/.362

 

Lee:

RISP (AVG/OBP) .304/.431

RISP/2 OUTS .269/.464

 

Ramirez:

RISP (AVG/OBP) .311/.396

RISP/2 OUTS .245/.379

 

There are a few things to note here. In 2004, Tejada had MONSTER stats with numbers of .322/.365 with RISP and .363/.437 with RISP and 2/outs. Hence the 150 RBI's. But for comparison sake, D-Lee last year had a .331/.480 with RISP and .308/.500 with RISP/2 outs, but he only had 107 total RBI's. Basically D-Lee's numbers last year were BETTER than Tejada's in 2004, but Lee had nobody on base thus only ended up with 107 RBI's (further reason why I believe he was snubbed on the MVP voting last year).

 

Tejada's numbers last year slipped, going .315/.376 with RISP and .298/.376 with RISP/2 Outs.

 

What really stands out to me is this: Julio Lugo's numbers over the past 2 years are JUST as good as Tejada's in situational circumstances. Lugo doesn't have the RBI's to show for it becasue he is a top of the order batter, and his slugging percentage isn't there because he doesn't hit for power (thus you'll get the 3 run shot from Tejada, but Lugo will get on base just as often as Tejada will).

 

What does all this mean???? I'm not exactly sure. I think if I had the choice, I would do what I have said all along, go out and get Lugo and plug him into the 2 hole. Let Pierre and Lugo set the table for guys like D-Lee and A-Ram, and I am CERTAIN D-Lee can have an MVP season and drive in 130+ RBI's.

 

It's funny to note, A-Ram's numbers last year were not very good (that's not the part that's funny): .285/.367 with RISP and .186/.314 with RISP and 2 OUTS. What is funny is that that explains why last year we saw A-Ram running to first base and slamming his helmet after making the last out in the inning so many times with that disgusted look on his face .....