Soriano trade RUMORS part d'uh

[brfahey]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

yes, a frightening world full of casual fans that thought neifi was our savior last year.

 

i'll take the opinions of pretty much anyone that i respect on this board over conventional wisdom.

 

the people that i talk to about baseball outside of this board have no idea what they are talking about, it's often painful to listen to them and have to hold my tongue or not roll my eyes.

 

"So, Juan Pierre's the best leadoff man in the game, eh? Ya don't say?"

 

Arrogance alert, arrogance alert. Go get a job in baseball and educate people about how smart you are and about how dumb everyone is who doesn't agree with you. Or instead you can stay in front of your computer monitor and pontificate for the rest of your life.

 

arrogance-schmarrogance, i just find it hard to listen to people who have no idea what they're talking about.

 

I think that if you are absolutely certain you are not one of those people it's not schmarrogance.

[rawaction]

Cut the personal stuff. It's a difference of opinion. No need to make it more than what it is.

[Chris]

Let's keep it civil

[Magnetic Curses]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

yes, a frightening world full of casual fans that thought neifi was our savior last year.

 

i'll take the opinions of pretty much anyone that i respect on this board over conventional wisdom.

 

the people that i talk to about baseball outside of this board have no idea what they are talking about, it's often painful to listen to them and have to hold my tongue or not roll my eyes.

 

"So, Juan Pierre's the best leadoff man in the game, eh? Ya don't say?"

 

Arrogance alert, arrogance alert. Go get a job in baseball and educate people about how smart you are and about how dumb everyone is who doesn't agree with you. Or instead you can stay in front of your computer monitor and pontificate for the rest of your life.

 

arrogance-schmarrogance, i just find it hard to listen to people who have no idea what they're talking about.

 

Wow. And how do we identify who those people are? Just b/c he/she does not believe in the same methedology as you?

 

i don't even consider myself as knowing that much, but i sure as hell enjoy reading the posts and articles. off the top of my head, the people who i consider as knowing what they're talking about include but are not limited to: raw, t2e, UK, BK, Tim, tree, cpatterson27, wastra, goony, and JC to start with, i'd recommend anything by any of them

[Magnetic Curses]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

yes, a frightening world full of casual fans that thought neifi was our savior last year.

 

i'll take the opinions of pretty much anyone that i respect on this board over conventional wisdom.

 

the people that i talk to about baseball outside of this board have no idea what they are talking about, it's often painful to listen to them and have to hold my tongue or not roll my eyes.

 

"So, Juan Pierre's the best leadoff man in the game, eh? Ya don't say?"

 

Arrogance alert, arrogance alert. Go get a job in baseball and educate people about how smart you are and about how dumb everyone is who doesn't agree with you. Or instead you can stay in front of your computer monitor and pontificate for the rest of your life.

 

arrogance-schmarrogance, i just find it hard to listen to people who have no idea what they're talking about.

 

I think that if you are absolutely certain you are not one of those people it's not schmarrogance.

 

if by "one of those people" you mean an edward k-type, then i'm certain.

[brfahey]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

yes, a frightening world full of casual fans that thought neifi was our savior last year.

 

i'll take the opinions of pretty much anyone that i respect on this board over conventional wisdom.

 

the people that i talk to about baseball outside of this board have no idea what they are talking about, it's often painful to listen to them and have to hold my tongue or not roll my eyes.

 

"So, Juan Pierre's the best leadoff man in the game, eh? Ya don't say?"

 

Arrogance alert, arrogance alert. Go get a job in baseball and educate people about how smart you are and about how dumb everyone is who doesn't agree with you. Or instead you can stay in front of your computer monitor and pontificate for the rest of your life.

 

arrogance-schmarrogance, i just find it hard to listen to people who have no idea what they're talking about.

 

I think that if you are absolutely certain you are not one of those people it's not schmarrogance.

 

if by "one of those people" you mean an edward k-type, then i'm certain.

 

Pardon my ignorance by I don't know what an edward-k type is. Sorry.

[Scotti]

Walker's "metrics" as a "rate" receive a bump by not having to bat against lefties.

 

Also, Walker hasn't played in 150 games more than 2X in his career (8 full seasons). Soriano's career is shorter but he has 4/5 years over 150. Regardless of why that happens it has happened with 5 different managers.

 

23% of walker's AB's were against lefties, which is slightly higher than soriano's.

 

i don't see much of a difference.

 

stats may lie, but they aren't the liars that eyes are.

 

The Cubs, as a team last year, faced lefties 28.4% of the time (Walker faced only 22.9% lefties). The Rangers last year faced lefties only 23.8% of the time (Soriano faced about the same—22% lefties).

 

(Walker has batted against even fewer lefties (21.4%) over the past three years. Soriano has batted against lefties 29.2% of the time during that three-year span.)

 

There appear to be some statistical trends over time. Walker gets taken out of the line up against lefties because, over the last three years (and at least four), he doesn't hit them as well as he does lefties (and I'd bet that he usually doesn't hit against the toughest lefties).

 

If the current trends continue Walker will bat against fewer lefties than Soriano (and, IMO, the lefties he bats against will be the “weaker” lefties). If the current trends continue Walker will continue to hit against righties and fewer lefties thus increasing his BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, etc. vs. what he would have done had he faced his team’s % of lefties.

 

If the current trends continue Soriano will play against just about anyone (because he isn't replaced by managers for PH, PR or defensive subs) and frequently lead his league in innings at 2B thus giving you more value.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Poor Edward K give the man his dignity back.

 

:lol:

[Scotti]

I agree with UK here. Soriano has an edge on Walker as a player. However, that difference wouldn't come close to the price we'd have to pay to acquire him.

 

I hear that. I'm pretty sure I find the difference greater that either of you but I'm just interested in finding out what that price is.

[oldcubsfan]

If Walker is such an improvement as a hitter over Soriano, why aren't all the teams lining up to offer great deals for him? Reading this thread, you would think Washington would be calling Hendry and offering Soriano and cash and another player for Walker. Guess the baseball world doesn't value Todd Walker the same as people here do.

[UK1679666180]

I value the likely players given up needed to get him over their salary difference. The farm system has been decreasing at a higher rate than I'd like to see even before a simulated trade like this.

 

(Side note and not related to the discussion over Soriano/Walker: I'm very disappointed a thread like this can be shifted over something ridiculous)

[Magnetic Curses]

Walker's "metrics" as a "rate" receive a bump by not having to bat against lefties.

 

Also, Walker hasn't played in 150 games more than 2X in his career (8 full seasons). Soriano's career is shorter but he has 4/5 years over 150. Regardless of why that happens it has happened with 5 different managers.

 

23% of walker's AB's were against lefties, which is slightly higher than soriano's.

 

i don't see much of a difference.

 

stats may lie, but they aren't the liars that eyes are.

 

The Cubs, as a team last year, faced lefties 28.4% of the time (Walker faced only 22.9% lefties). The Rangers last year faced lefties only 23.8% of the time (Soriano faced about the same—22% lefties).

 

(Walker has batted against even fewer lefties (21.4%) over the past three years. Soriano has batted against lefties 29.2% of the time during that three-year span.)

 

There appear to be some statistical trends over time. Walker gets taken out of the line up against lefties because, over the last three years (and at least four), he doesn't hit them as well as he does lefties (and I'd bet that he usually doesn't hit against the toughest lefties).

 

If the current trends continue Walker will bat against fewer lefties than Soriano (and, IMO, the lefties he bats against will be the “weaker” lefties). If the current trends continue Walker will continue to hit against righties and fewer lefties thus increasing his BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, etc. vs. what he would have done had he faced his team’s % of lefties.

 

If the current trends continue Soriano will play against just about anyone (because he isn't replaced by managers for PH, PR or defensive subs) and frequently lead his league in innings at 2B thus giving you more value.

 

you made him sound like a platoon player, though, which he is not. he has played a majority of the tiem against lefties. that's all i'm saying.

[Scotti]

you made him sound like a platoon player, though, which he is not. he has played a majority of the tiem against lefties. that's all i'm saying.

 

Sully, he sits against his fair share of lefties but I also have mentioned (repeatedly) some of the other reasons he doesn't play as much as Soriano (PR, injuries and even D).

[Scotti]

If Walker is such an improvement as a hitter over Soriano, why aren't all the teams lining up to offer great deals for him? Reading this thread, you would think Washington would be calling Hendry and offering Soriano and cash and another player for Walker. Guess the baseball world doesn't value Todd Walker the same as people here do.

 

Soriano would command more in trade (and it isn’t even close) because he is worth more (IMO, it isn’t even close).

 

Cash certainly would be a sticking point but unless the Cubs were sending salary their way (and they would have little interest in Walker) they would certainly pass 1-2M back to us.

[RockTheIvy]

If Walker is such an improvement as a hitter over Soriano, why aren't all the teams lining up to offer great deals for him? Reading this thread, you would think Washington would be calling Hendry and offering Soriano and cash and another player for Walker. Guess the baseball world doesn't value Todd Walker the same as people here do.

 

Because only idiots actually work in baseball. :lol:

[CubfaninCA]

I value what Soriano does offensively greatly. He's got a wiry non-Oakland/Moneyball/B12 frame and uses that and his bat speed to generate big power. Ironically, I think this is the next “moneyball”—guys that have wiry frames that are unlikely to be busted using roids (DLee falls into this category as well).

 

Soriano also has plus, plus speed and knows what to do with it. And if the objective of offense is scoring and driving in runs then he fulfills that objective. Offensively the addition of Soriano would add another bat to the trio of Lee, Ramirez and Barrett (each the best at his position in the NL in ’05).

 

The Q’s are with his defense. Having DLee around would help some but the Cubs also brought on Ramirez and worked with him before they had Lee. ARam turned the page after about two weeks of coaching. Perhaps Soriano has issues the Cubs coaching staff can work with or perhaps not. Either way I think Soriano’s poor defensive reputation is a tad much given his numbers. Soriano’s range seems fine (if not spectacular). What has been spectacular is the amount of innings Soriano has put up in the last five years. When he is healthy enough to start (often) his managers leave him in there—they don’t take him out for a defensive replacement. This also has “moneyball” implications—you get more for your money than what you would get if you paid a guy who played 130-140 games per year (or was short on innings because he was being PH or PR for).

 

I think a lot of Soriano and so does the league (given what he’s been traded for). The heat might be under Washington to avoid a mess of their own making so, if Soriano can be had for a decent deal, I’m willing to deal. A decent deal would not include Pie or, IMO, Hill or Guzman. I’d try a package around Williams, Marshall, Patterson or Murton. I’d consider Wuertz as well.

 

Walker is a better offensive player than Soriano. His 45 point advantage in OBP is much greater than Soriano's 35-30 point SLG advantage.

 

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

How? It's been proven that a point of OBP is more valuable than SLG, and even if you count them equally Walker has an advantage in OPS. If you don't like OBP Walker had nearly 40 points of AVG on Walker. This doesn't even include that Soriano had astonishing discrepancies in his home/road splits, and he was worse than Neifi away from hitter's haven Ameriquest.

 

That generalization may be true, but isn't obp more important in the 1-4 spots than 5-8. Considering Jones & Murton may be batting 6-7, I want a guy w/ high slugging % batting 5th. I have a feeling Jones will strand a good number of baserunners.

[CubfaninCA]

Soriano has a career .500 slugging %. That's in Burrell, Matsui, Floyd, Carlos Lee and Sheffield territory... The Cubs best 2 opb guys are Lee and ARam & I liked to see them score as often as possible. I prefer Soriano over Walker's .441 career slugging % in the 5 hole or Jock Jones batting 5th. And I like Sori's 40 home run potential too. That beats the heck out Walker's 15 homer potential.

 

Bat Murton or Cedeno 2nd. They can probably come close to matching Walker's .355 obp, which is nothing spectacular.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Soriano has a career .500 slugging %. That's in Burrell, Matsui, Floyd, Carlos Lee and Sheffield territory... The Cubs best 2 opb guys are Lee and ARam & I liked to see them score as often as possible. I prefer Soriano over Walker's .441 career slugging % in the 5 hole or Jock Jones batting 5th. And I like Sori's 40 home run potential too. That beats the heck out Walker's 15 homer potential.

 

Bat Murton or Cedeno 2nd. They can probably come close to matching Walker's .355 obp, which is nothing spectacular.

 

But the cost of Williams and maybe others to upgrade to Soriano isn't worth the upgrade.

[Scotti]

Soriano has a career .500 slugging %. That's in Burrell, Matsui, Floyd, Carlos Lee and Sheffield territory... The Cubs best 2 opb guys are Lee and ARam & I liked to see them score as often as possible. I prefer Soriano over Walker's .441 career slugging % in the 5 hole or Jock Jones batting 5th. And I like Sori's 40 home run potential too. That beats the heck out Walker's 15 homer potential.

 

Bat Murton or Cedeno 2nd. They can probably come close to matching Walker's .355 obp, which is nothing spectacular.

 

Soriano's career .500 SLG is 92nd ALL-TIME:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SLG_career.shtml

[Soul]

This looks like a rumor as written, and not even a real solid one. Sounds to me like this is a lot of hullabaloo over nuttin' :wink:

[treebird]

Soriano has a career .500 slugging %. That's in Burrell, Matsui, Floyd, Carlos Lee and Sheffield territory... The Cubs best 2 opb guys are Lee and ARam & I liked to see them score as often as possible. I prefer Soriano over Walker's .441 career slugging % in the 5 hole or Jock Jones batting 5th. And I like Sori's 40 home run potential too. That beats the heck out Walker's 15 homer potential.

 

Bat Murton or Cedeno 2nd. They can probably come close to matching Walker's .355 obp, which is nothing spectacular.

 

Soriano's career .500 SLG is 92nd ALL-TIME:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SLG_career.shtml

 

last year he was 37th in the majors in SLG despite his home park. and he's obp was 309. guess where he ranked in obp among 37?

 

DEAD FREAKING LAST

 

that means he was also last in ops.

 

soriano basically has two skills -- power and speed. he's real good at those, but he's real bad at everything else. i don't know why anyone who understood baseball would make a special effort to go out and get him once you take his contract into account.

[RockTheIvy]

Soriano has a career .500 slugging %. That's in Burrell, Matsui, Floyd, Carlos Lee and Sheffield territory... The Cubs best 2 opb guys are Lee and ARam & I liked to see them score as often as possible. I prefer Soriano over Walker's .441 career slugging % in the 5 hole or Jock Jones batting 5th. And I like Sori's 40 home run potential too. That beats the heck out Walker's 15 homer potential.

 

Bat Murton or Cedeno 2nd. They can probably come close to matching Walker's .355 obp, which is nothing spectacular.

 

Soriano's career .500 SLG is 92nd ALL-TIME:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SLG_career.shtml

 

last year he was 37th in the majors in SLG despite his home park. and he's obp was 309. guess where he ranked in obp among 37?

 

DEAD FREAKING LAST

 

that means he was also last in ops.

 

soriano basically has two skills -- power and speed. he's real good at those, but he's real bad at everything else. i don't know why anyone who understood baseball would make a special effort to go out and get him once you take his contract into account.

 

Because at one point in time Soriano batted close to .300, hit 30+ HRs and stole 30+ bases. I guess these are "Sexy" stats to a lot of GMs.

 

I've always been more of a HBP man myself.

[CubfaninCA]

Soriano has a career .500 slugging %. That's in Burrell, Matsui, Floyd, Carlos Lee and Sheffield territory... The Cubs best 2 opb guys are Lee and ARam & I liked to see them score as often as possible. I prefer Soriano over Walker's .441 career slugging % in the 5 hole or Jock Jones batting 5th. And I like Sori's 40 home run potential too. That beats the heck out Walker's 15 homer potential.

 

Bat Murton or Cedeno 2nd. They can probably come close to matching Walker's .355 obp, which is nothing spectacular.

 

But the cost of Williams and maybe others to upgrade to Soriano isn't worth the upgrade.

 

So who do you want batting 5th?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Soriano has a career .500 slugging %. That's in Burrell, Matsui, Floyd, Carlos Lee and Sheffield territory... The Cubs best 2 opb guys are Lee and ARam & I liked to see them score as often as possible. I prefer Soriano over Walker's .441 career slugging % in the 5 hole or Jock Jones batting 5th. And I like Sori's 40 home run potential too. That beats the heck out Walker's 15 homer potential.

 

Bat Murton or Cedeno 2nd. They can probably come close to matching Walker's .355 obp, which is nothing spectacular.

 

But the cost of Williams and maybe others to upgrade to Soriano isn't worth the upgrade.

 

So who do you want batting 5th?

 

With the current personel, I'd use this line-up:

 

Pierre

Walker

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Cedeno

 

Would Soriano make a nice 5th hitter? Surely, but at the cost of Williams and prospects, I'll pass since we already have Walker.

 

I'm not saying I'd want nothing to do with Soriano. I'm saying that considering the cost and that we have a capable secondbasemen in Walker, I'll pass.

 

But since you asked who I want to bat fifth, I'll say Ramirez when we get Adam Dunn to hit fourth.

[BigbadB]

Soriano has a career .500 slugging %. That's in Burrell, Matsui, Floyd, Carlos Lee and Sheffield territory... The Cubs best 2 opb guys are Lee and ARam & I liked to see them score as often as possible. I prefer Soriano over Walker's .441 career slugging % in the 5 hole or Jock Jones batting 5th. And I like Sori's 40 home run potential too. That beats the heck out Walker's 15 homer potential.

 

Bat Murton or Cedeno 2nd. They can probably come close to matching Walker's .355 obp, which is nothing spectacular.

 

Washington is rumored to want Josh Beckett from Boston for Soriano. Of course, you have to take a rumor with a grain of salt, but would the difference between Walker and his 2.5m salary and Soriano at close to 10m plus the quality player or two it would cost to get him really be worth it? Personally, I don't think so.

 

This offseason has really been a nightmare in regards to improving the team. Some Hendry's doing, some because the market was so barren.

 

At this juncture, I'd really just like to see Hendry hold out for something to fall in his lap or just go to battle with what we have and hope a team will be willing to give up something decent at the deadline.

 

The biggest problem I have with giving up a lot for Soriano is that we had a comparable player in Nomar that wouldn't have costed any prospects and would have been much cheaper. The only concern would have been injury, which is a legitimate concern. We didn't want a poor fielding shortstop, but now we want a poor fielding 2nd baseman. And what will be the cost?

 

If there was a choice of Vidro or Soriano, I'd prefer Vidro. He's locked in beyond this coming year, which helps with the potential turnover next year will again be hard to replace. I also lean towards Vidro due to the signing of Jones. Jones is a very poor hitter in general, and Vidro can make up for Jones' inadequacies. Not only would Vidro make for a very good #2 hitter, which the team lacks, but he can also play some 3rd base. Next year could feature a huge turnover. If the Cubs traded for Soriano, there is the potential of Maddux, Wood, Lee, Soriano, Ramirez and Pierre all hitting the road. Some of these guys might see greener pastures by testing the market.

 

At this point, I'd lean towards just keeping Walker. Trading for Vidro would be my 2nd choice.