Soriano trade RUMORS part d'uh

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I have yet to be persuaded why we'd want Soriano on this team. If we're trading for one of Washington's superfluous secondbasemen, Vidro please.

 

I'd bet they'd rather move Soriano than Vidro just because of the circumstances.

 

That doesn't make sense considering they just traded for Soriano. They gave up Wilkerson and Sledge to get him. That's a good bit of value. I don't see them "giving" him away.

 

Secondly, Soriano will get 8-10 million in arbitration. That's a huge chunk of change. Considering we have Walker, who while is a different style of player, is nearly as productive as Soriano ar 2.5 million, I just can't see making this trade unless it's Walker + Wellemeyer or Walker + Patterson or Walker + Marmol and I doubt those deals get done. To give up Williams or Hill or Murton is ridiculous considering that Soriano would be here for one year and isn't likely to be much of an upgrade over what we have.

[brfahey]

I value what Soriano does offensively greatly. He's got a wiry non-Oakland/Moneyball/B12 frame and uses that and his bat speed to generate big power. Ironically, I think this is the next “moneyball”—guys that have wiry frames that are unlikely to be busted using roids (DLee falls into this category as well).

 

Soriano also has plus, plus speed and knows what to do with it. And if the objective of offense is scoring and driving in runs then he fulfills that objective. Offensively the addition of Soriano would add another bat to the trio of Lee, Ramirez and Barrett (each the best at his position in the NL in ’05).

 

The Q’s are with his defense. Having DLee around would help some but the Cubs also brought on Ramirez and worked with him before they had Lee. ARam turned the page after about two weeks of coaching. Perhaps Soriano has issues the Cubs coaching staff can work with or perhaps not. Either way I think Soriano’s poor defensive reputation is a tad much given his numbers. Soriano’s range seems fine (if not spectacular). What has been spectacular is the amount of innings Soriano has put up in the last five years. When he is healthy enough to start (often) his managers leave him in there—they don’t take him out for a defensive replacement. This also has “moneyball” implications—you get more for your money than what you would get if you paid a guy who played 130-140 games per year (or was short on innings because he was being PH or PR for).

 

I think a lot of Soriano and so does the league (given what he’s been traded for). The heat might be under Washington to avoid a mess of their own making so, if Soriano can be had for a decent deal, I’m willing to deal. A decent deal would not include Pie or, IMO, Hill or Guzman. I’d try a package around Williams, Marshall, Patterson or Murton. I’d consider Wuertz as well.

 

Walker is a better offensive player than Soriano. His 45 point advantage in OBP is much greater than Soriano's 35-30 point SLG advantage.

 

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

[treebird]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I value what Soriano does offensively greatly. He's got a wiry non-Oakland/Moneyball/B12 frame and uses that and his bat speed to generate big power. Ironically, I think this is the next “moneyball”—guys that have wiry frames that are unlikely to be busted using roids (DLee falls into this category as well).

 

Soriano also has plus, plus speed and knows what to do with it. And if the objective of offense is scoring and driving in runs then he fulfills that objective. Offensively the addition of Soriano would add another bat to the trio of Lee, Ramirez and Barrett (each the best at his position in the NL in ’05).

 

The Q’s are with his defense. Having DLee around would help some but the Cubs also brought on Ramirez and worked with him before they had Lee. ARam turned the page after about two weeks of coaching. Perhaps Soriano has issues the Cubs coaching staff can work with or perhaps not. Either way I think Soriano’s poor defensive reputation is a tad much given his numbers. Soriano’s range seems fine (if not spectacular). What has been spectacular is the amount of innings Soriano has put up in the last five years. When he is healthy enough to start (often) his managers leave him in there—they don’t take him out for a defensive replacement. This also has “moneyball” implications—you get more for your money than what you would get if you paid a guy who played 130-140 games per year (or was short on innings because he was being PH or PR for).

 

I think a lot of Soriano and so does the league (given what he’s been traded for). The heat might be under Washington to avoid a mess of their own making so, if Soriano can be had for a decent deal, I’m willing to deal. A decent deal would not include Pie or, IMO, Hill or Guzman. I’d try a package around Williams, Marshall, Patterson or Murton. I’d consider Wuertz as well.

 

Walker is a better offensive player than Soriano. His 45 point advantage in OBP is much greater than Soriano's 35-30 point SLG advantage.

 

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

How? It's been proven that a point of OBP is more valuable than SLG, and even if you count them equally Walker has an advantage in OPS. If you don't like OBP Walker had nearly 40 points of AVG on Walker. This doesn't even include that Soriano had astonishing discrepancies in his home/road splits, and he was worse than Neifi away from hitter's haven Ameriquest.

[brfahey]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think Soriano is living primarily on his reputation he established as a Yankee. His numbers have declined since then and have been masked by playing home games in AMFIA.

[treebird]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

a world of people who will see alfonso soriano's name and think "40/40" and choose him despite his huge deficiencies.

[Scotti]

Walker is a better offensive player than Soriano. His 45 point advantage in OBP is much greater than Soriano's 35-30 point SLG advantage.

 

This may be true if things like speed and actually being on the field didn't matter. Walker's managers DO PH (remember he's lefty only), PR (he's 2/6 in SB in the last 3 years) and sub for him on defense (while Soriano's mgrs leave him in). And Walker gets hurt while Soriano doesn't. What you get then are the subs totals added to Walker's. That and the kind of difference that 30SB in 32 attemps can make means this isn't even close.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Walker is a better offensive player than Soriano. His 45 point advantage in OBP is much greater than Soriano's 35-30 point SLG advantage.

 

This may be true if things like speed and actually being on the field didn't matter. Walker's managers DO PH (remember he's lefty only), PR (he's 2/6 in SB in the last 3 years) and sub for him on defense (while Soriano's mgrs leave him in). And Walker gets hurt while Soriano doesn't. What you get then are the subs totals added to Walker's. That and the kind of difference that 30SB in 32 attemps can make means this isn't even close.

 

Even if I concede that Soriano has more value than Walker offensively, it isn't enough to warrant giving up Jerome Williams to make that slight improvement.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Walker is a better offensive player than Soriano. His 45 point advantage in OBP is much greater than Soriano's 35-30 point SLG advantage.

 

This may be true if things like speed and actually being on the field didn't matter. Walker's managers DO PH (remember he's lefty only), PR (he's 2/6 in SB in the last 3 years) and sub for him on defense (while Soriano's mgrs leave him in). And Walker gets hurt while Soriano doesn't. What you get then are the subs totals added to Walker's. That and the kind of difference that 30SB in 32 attemps can make means this isn't even close.

 

Metrics like Runs Created include SB, and Walker still tops Soriano as a rate. You can't punish Walker for getting leg-whipped by Carlos Lee, or for the incompetency of managers.

[Scotti]

I have yet to be persuaded why we'd want Soriano on this team. If we're trading for one of Washington's superfluous secondbasemen, Vidro please.

 

I'd bet they'd rather move Soriano than Vidro just because of the circumstances.

 

That doesn't make sense considering they just traded for Soriano. They gave up Wilkerson and Sledge to get him. That's a good bit of value. I don't see them "giving" him away.

 

At question here is what would Washington rather do (not the Cubs or the other teams in the league). They can keep a player that forces you to trade another player or trade the player that is forcing you to make the trade.

 

Neither situation is pretty but I'm thinking they would prefer the guy that doesn't need to be coddled.

 

Secondly, Soriano will get 8-10 million in arbitration. That's a huge chunk of change. Considering we have Walker, who while is a different style of player, is nearly as productive as Soriano ar 2.5 million, I just can't see making this trade unless it's Walker + Wellemeyer or Walker + Patterson or Walker + Marmol and I doubt those deals get done. To give up Williams or Hill or Murton is ridiculous considering that Soriano would be here for one year and isn't likely to be much of an upgrade over what we have.

 

I thought I had suggested he was going to be given away by offering what I did.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I have yet to be persuaded why we'd want Soriano on this team. If we're trading for one of Washington's superfluous secondbasemen, Vidro please.

 

I'd bet they'd rather move Soriano than Vidro just because of the circumstances.

 

That doesn't make sense considering they just traded for Soriano. They gave up Wilkerson and Sledge to get him. That's a good bit of value. I don't see them "giving" him away.

 

At question here is what would Washington rather do (not the Cubs or the other teams in the league). They can keep a player that forces you to trade another player or trade the player that is forcing you to make the trade.

 

Neither situation is pretty but I'm thinking they would prefer the guy that doesn't need to be coddled.

 

Secondly, Soriano will get 8-10 million in arbitration. That's a huge chunk of change. Considering we have Walker, who while is a different style of player, is nearly as productive as Soriano ar 2.5 million, I just can't see making this trade unless it's Walker + Wellemeyer or Walker + Patterson or Walker + Marmol and I doubt those deals get done. To give up Williams or Hill or Murton is ridiculous considering that Soriano would be here for one year and isn't likely to be much of an upgrade over what we have.

 

I thought I had suggested he was going to be given away by offering what I did.

 

 

If you offer Murton in a deal without getting Jose Guillen back, you've offered too much.

 

I might offer Walker +Patterson or Walker + Marmol...or Walker + Wellemeyer.

 

Nothing more than that, and I'm pretty sure Washington passes on all of those deals.

 

The best move the Cubs can make right now is to hold on to Walker and look for an upgrade in the outfield or add another starter to the rotation.

[UK1679666180]

Soriano is a better player than Walker, just not as good as salary difference indicates or the players req'd to get him to replace Walker.

 

Also, the current line-up composition should play a factor and at this point a hitter that can hit at the top of the order is needed more than a middle of the order hitter, despite Jones right now being the #5 hitter.

 

If Baker has shown more of an open mind with his line-ups I could see a Pierre/Murton at the top, but I doubt that would enter into the equation.

 

For me, if you gave the choice of Walker or Soriano based only on expected production, I'd take Soriano.

 

Give me the choice of Walker, 6mil, and prospects or Soriano. I'd take Walker.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Soriano is a better player than Walker, just not as good as salary difference indicates or the players req'd to get him to replace Walker.

 

Also, the current line-up composition should play a factor and at this point a hitter that can hit at the top of the order is needed more than a middle of the order hitter, despite Jones right now being the #5 hitter.

 

If Baker has shown more of an open mind with his line-ups I could see a Pierre/Murton at the top, but I doubt that would enter into the equation.

 

For me, if you gave the choice of Walker or Soriano based only on expected production, I'd take Soriano.

 

Give me the choice of Walker, 6mil, and prospects or Soriano. I'd take Walker.

 

That sums up what I've been trying to say. I may, and likely would take Soriano over Walker if all things were equal, but they are not. Considering it would cost more dollars and players to get Soriano, the best course of action is for the Cubs to stick with Walker.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Give me the choice of Walker, 6mil, and prospects or Soriano. I'd take Walker.

 

Every darn day of the week and 2 or 3 times on Sunday.

[Scotti]

Walker is a better offensive player than Soriano. His 45 point advantage in OBP is much greater than Soriano's 35-30 point SLG advantage.

 

This may be true if things like speed and actually being on the field didn't matter. Walker's managers DO PH (remember he's lefty only), PR (he's 2/6 in SB in the last 3 years) and sub for him on defense (while Soriano's mgrs leave him in). And Walker gets hurt while Soriano doesn't. What you get then are the subs totals added to Walker's. That and the kind of difference that 30SB in 32 attemps can make means this isn't even close.

 

Metrics like Runs Created include SB, and Walker still tops Soriano as a rate. You can't punish Walker for getting leg-whipped by Carlos Lee, or for the incompetency of managers.

 

Walker's "metrics" as a "rate" recieve a bump by not having to bat against lefties.

 

Also, Walker hasn't played in 150 games more than 2X in his career (8 full seasons). Soriano's career is shorter but he has 4/5 years over 150. Regardless of why that happens it has happened with 5 different managers.

[Scotti]

If you offer Murton in a deal without getting Jose Guillen back, you've offered too much.

 

I might offer Walker +Patterson or Walker + Marmol...or Walker + Wellemeyer.

 

Nothing more than that, and I'm pretty sure Washington passes on all of those deals.

 

We certainly agree there.

[Magnetic Curses]

Why do the Cubs need a 5 hitter to take a bunch of walks??

 

oh, sorry, excuse me for wanting to clog up the bases.

 

OBP is valuable everywhere in the order, and i value the ability to get on base over every other ability there is.

 

not making an out = good job

[Magnetic Curses]

Walker is a better offensive player than Soriano. His 45 point advantage in OBP is much greater than Soriano's 35-30 point SLG advantage.

 

This may be true if things like speed and actually being on the field didn't matter. Walker's managers DO PH (remember he's lefty only), PR (he's 2/6 in SB in the last 3 years) and sub for him on defense (while Soriano's mgrs leave him in). And Walker gets hurt while Soriano doesn't. What you get then are the subs totals added to Walker's. That and the kind of difference that 30SB in 32 attemps can make means this isn't even close.

 

Metrics like Runs Created include SB, and Walker still tops Soriano as a rate. You can't punish Walker for getting leg-whipped by Carlos Lee, or for the incompetency of managers.

 

Walker's "metrics" as a "rate" recieve a bump by not having to bat against lefties.

 

Also, Walker hasn't played in 150 games more than 2X in his career (8 full seasons). Soriano's career is shorter but he has 4/5 years over 150. Regardless of why that happens it has happened with 5 different managers.

 

23% of walker's AB's were against lefties, which is slightly higher than soriano's.

 

i don't see much of a difference.

 

stats may lie, but they aren't the liars that eyes are.

[Magnetic Curses]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

yes, a frightening world full of casual fans that thought neifi was our savior last year.

 

i'll take the opinions of pretty much anyone that i respect on this board over conventional wisdom.

 

the people that i talk to about baseball outside of this board have no idea what they are talking about, it's often painful to listen to them and have to hold my tongue or not roll my eyes.

 

"So, Juan Pierre's the best leadoff man in the game, eh? Ya don't say?"

[brfahey]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

yes, a frightening world full of casual fans that thought neifi was our savior last year.

 

i'll take the opinions of pretty much anyone that i respect on this board over conventional wisdom.

 

the people that i talk to about baseball outside of this board have no idea what they are talking about, it's often painful to listen to them and have to hold my tongue or not roll my eyes.

 

"So, Juan Pierre's the best leadoff man in the game, eh? Ya don't say?"

 

Arrogance alert, arrogance alert. Go get a job in baseball and educate people about how smart you are and about how dumb everyone is who doesn't agree with you. Or instead you can stay in front of your computer monitor and pontificate for the rest of your life.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

I hear footsteps...

[Tim]

I agree with UK here. Soriano has an edge on Walker as a player. However, that difference wouldn't come close to the price we'd have to pay to acquire him.

[Magnetic Curses]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

yes, a frightening world full of casual fans that thought neifi was our savior last year.

 

i'll take the opinions of pretty much anyone that i respect on this board over conventional wisdom.

 

the people that i talk to about baseball outside of this board have no idea what they are talking about, it's often painful to listen to them and have to hold my tongue or not roll my eyes.

 

"So, Juan Pierre's the best leadoff man in the game, eh? Ya don't say?"

 

Arrogance alert, arrogance alert. Go get a job in baseball and educate people about how smart you are and about how dumb everyone is who doesn't agree with you. Or instead you can stay in front of your computer monitor and pontificate for the rest of your life.

 

arrogance-schmarrogance, i just find it hard to listen to people who have no idea what they're talking about.

[RynoRules]

I know you've made that point before and you have the numbers which you believe establish and I do not want to recreate that thread but I remain steadfast in my opinion that your statement would be found incredible by most.

 

can we have a poll on this topic? we don't even have to include player b's road splits.

 

I didn't say by most on this board. I know what most on this board think without a poll to show me. There's a world outside this board.

 

yes, a frightening world full of casual fans that thought neifi was our savior last year.

 

i'll take the opinions of pretty much anyone that i respect on this board over conventional wisdom.

 

the people that i talk to about baseball outside of this board have no idea what they are talking about, it's often painful to listen to them and have to hold my tongue or not roll my eyes.

 

"So, Juan Pierre's the best leadoff man in the game, eh? Ya don't say?"

 

Arrogance alert, arrogance alert. Go get a job in baseball and educate people about how smart you are and about how dumb everyone is who doesn't agree with you. Or instead you can stay in front of your computer monitor and pontificate for the rest of your life.

 

arrogance-schmarrogance, i just find it hard to listen to people who have no idea what they're talking about.

 

Wow. And how do we identify who those people are? Just b/c he/she does not believe in the same methedology as you?