Levine reports on Tejada for Prior rumor 12/22 - 26

[badger1679666666]

I guess I'm in the minority on this, but I'd gladly trade Prior for Tejada straight up - and I don't think Baltimore would do it. Tejada is one of the best everyday players in baseball - a sterling defensive SS who hits for power and average. Prior is all promise, but he's a considerable health risk and frankly, I question his toughness. Tejada, to me, is the more valuable player.

 

For the love of my sanity, How the hell is prior a "considerable health risk"?

 

Why don't you come over to my house, I'll take a bat, swing as hard as I can, and hit you right on the elbow, and then i'll question you're toughness as you cry like a girl.

 

Take it easy, chief.

 

You're right it was a little over the top, but I wasn't calling him a girl. Merely questioning his toughness if I nailed him square on the elbow with a baseball bat. (Like when prior got nailed on his elbow by the combacker)

 

I can't stand people who call prior injury prone. He's got bad-luck, but he's not injury prone.

[delroy lindo]

I guess I'm in the minority on this, but I'd gladly trade Prior for Tejada straight up - and I don't think Baltimore would do it. Tejada is one of the best everyday players in baseball - a sterling defensive SS who hits for power and average. Prior is all promise, but he's a considerable health risk and frankly, I question his toughness. Tejada, to me, is the more valuable player.

 

For the love of my sanity, How the hell is prior a "considerable health risk"?

 

Why don't you come over to my house, I'll take a bat, swing as hard as I can, and hit you right on the elbow, and then i'll question you're toughness as you cry like a girl.

 

Take it easy, chief.

 

 

You're right it was a little over the top, but I wasn't calling him a girl. Merely questioning his toughness if I nailed him square on the elbow with a baseball bat. (Like when prior got nailed on his elbow by the combacker)

 

I can't stand people who call prior injury prone. He's got bad-luck, but he's not injury prone.

 

 

The Deeg's elbow would shatter the bat into thousands of pieces, but that's neither here nor there.

 

Calling Prior an injury risk isn't exactly baseless. He has had achilles issues and upper limb injuries that had nothing to do with line drives or basepath collisions.

[brinoch]

All pitchers are injury risks. It's a hazard of the profession.

[FergieJ31]

I agree 100% with dkwg. There are only two players I'd trade Prior straight up for, and Tejada ain't one of them. I'm far from sold on Bedard; way too much of a health risk + very so-so numbers (except for BB/K ratio).

 

If the Cubs MUST consider a Prior trade, I wish the Phils were on Hendry's speed dial. They lost Padilla to FA and need a topline starter to replace him. Abreu would absolutely mash at Wrigley. I'm not crazy about the idea of platooning MM and JJ in LF, but it'd certainly bring out the best in JJ, plus Dustbag already fed MM a steady diet of lefties last year.

 

Cubs would need more in return than just Abreu. I think Ryan Madson will blosoom into a very good starter, #2 calibre given the chance (I understand he's the favorite to take Padilla's spot in the Phils rotation this year). I *might* do Abreu + Madson + high prospect for Prior + (Hill or Guzman) + Pie + cash or some such. Or get a 3rd team involved e.g. Jays or Red Sox.

[Deeg]

Where was the bad luck in the achilles/elbow mystery injury that kept him out for half a season? Fact is, Prior has never gone a full season healthy yet. There are numerous baseball people that have seriously raised the question of whether Prior pitched through injuries other players might have. Prior may just be unlucky - or he may not. Pitchers are inherently riskier than position players anyway, and while nobody is a sure thing Tejada is about as close as you can get.

 

Nobody is saying trade Prior for peanuts. But the fact is, Tejada is one of the best players in the game. Prior has great value - that's why such a swap is even worthy of serious discussion (on message boards at least, if not between GMs). The Cubs are on a fast track to nowhere at the moment, and a move like this would seriously reshape the team. Risky? Hell, yes - but better a risk like that than a sure loser like guaranteeing $16 million to a 4th outfielder.

[back2backjax]

question:

 

would you rather trade prior for tejada or abreu?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

question:

 

would you rather trade prior for tejada or abreu?

 

Neither. If you trade Prior, the best player you get back has to be before or entering his prime.*

 

 

 

*There are exceptions of course, but they are very rare and very very infeasible.

[YearofDaCubs]

Where was the bad luck in the achilles/elbow mystery injury that kept him out for half a season? Fact is, Prior has never gone a full season healthy yet. There are numerous baseball people that have seriously raised the question of whether Prior pitched through injuries other players might have. Prior may just be unlucky - or he may not. Pitchers are inherently riskier than position players anyway, and while nobody is a sure thing Tejada is about as close as you can get.

 

Nobody is saying trade Prior for peanuts. But the fact is, Tejada is one of the best players in the game. Prior has great value - that's why such a swap is even worthy of serious discussion (on message boards at least, if not between GMs). The Cubs are on a fast track to nowhere at the moment, and a move like this would seriously reshape the team. Risky? Hell, yes - but better a risk like that than a sure loser like guaranteeing $16 million to a 4th outfielder.

Moving Prior will definitely reshape the team but I don't know for the better though. Our pitching staff would take a HUGE hit witj Prior missing. How do you expect to win games with Mediocre pitching? Wood is an injury risk Maddux is yet again one year older..it gets bad. This would be a terrible trade for the Cubs.

[nilodnayr]

I guess I'm in the minority on this, but I'd gladly trade Prior for Tejada straight up - and I don't think Baltimore would do it. Tejada is one of the best everyday players in baseball - a sterling defensive SS who hits for power and average. Prior is all promise, but he's a considerable health risk and frankly, I question his toughness. Tejada, to me, is the more valuable player.

 

But you also have to consider this:

 

Tejada- 12 million.

Prior- 3.5 million.

 

Even if Tejada is a more valuable player, which I would debate, the price tag makes Prior a better value for ability.

 

I've been away for a while, but how do we know Prior will make 3.5 in arbi? And would we be responsible for Tejadas signing bonus? Ignorning the signing bonus, I would have to believe that Prior wont be significantly cheaper than Miggy over the life of miggys contract (due to the fact that prior is a FA the year before miggy becomes one again). I assume that if healthy, prior will break Sori's arbi record and get boku bucks in free agency. I rarely stray from the general thinking of many vets on this board, but I think with the right prospects thrown in, this could be a good deal for the cubs. I mainly attribute that to the fact that I think I like Erik Bedard about a million times more than anyone else here. And the fact that I've resigned that we have "solved" our OF problem. I think Bedard can be a pretty good pitcher, under a non-Larry Rothschild pitching coach. Which is a problem if we were to acquire him. I would absolutely require Hayden Penn and would throw in Hill to get Markakis (who is at least one level higher IMO prospect-wise).

[Zaphkiel]

I think it's very, very likely that we overvalue Prior. When looked at objectively, Mark Prior is a young pitcher with great potential who has had one great season and two adequate ones. Miguel Tejada is an All-Star SS, a position where you don't traditionally get both defense, power and average. He's been a league MVP, and is only not duplicating those numbers because the other Orioles are generally fair to middling. Also, his contract is not insane.

 

Tejada might not put up OF numbers, but he doesn't have to. He's a shortstop. Great shortstops are hard to find, so they cost more.

 

I'd like to know what players the readers here would accept for Mark Prior. I have a sneaking suspicion that many of the suggested deals would get laughed at by any competent GMs.

[Iceblink]

question:

 

would you rather trade prior for tejada or abreu?

 

Neither. If you trade Prior, the best player you get back has to be before or entering his prime.*

 

 

 

*There are exceptions of course, but they are very rare and very very infeasible.

 

Right on. I'd say it's at least even money that both Tejada and Abreu figure to underperform Prior over the next 3 years.

[brinoch]

They might get laughed at, but then again, whether or not a GM would value Prior as highly as Cub fans is the question. For better or worse, Prior is a face of the franchise. We know he's a great pitcher with awesome potential. Plus, think of the marketing they've put behind him. When you trade a player like that, it better be a deal that unmistakeably improves your team.

 

Tejada, while coveted by myself and others, is not worth Prior. Why, you ask?

 

1. He's exiting his prime. He'll 30 this season.

 

2. His production, while solid, is only great for an SS. Were he an OF, we'd be less than enthused.

 

3. Given that he's aging, Tejada's going to have to move positions in a couple of years, most likely -- vastly reducing his value.

 

4. SS isn't a real position of need for the Cubs. Cedeno is young and cheap. Give him a shot.

 

5. You don't trade a young star pitcher for an aging veteran star position player. You trade like for like, or you trade old for young, or you trade prospects for aging stars.

 

If this deal goes down, I'm going to have a lot of free time this summer.

[Deeg]

I think it's very, very likely that we overvalue Prior. When looked at objectively, Mark Prior is a young pitcher with great potential who has had one great season and two adequate ones. Miguel Tejada is an All-Star SS, a position where you don't traditionally get both defense, power and average. He's been a league MVP, and is only not duplicating those numbers because the other Orioles are generally fair to middling. Also, his contract is not insane.

 

Tejada might not put up OF numbers, but he doesn't have to. He's a shortstop. Great shortstops are hard to find, so they cost more.

 

I'd like to know what players the readers here would accept for Mark Prior. I have a sneaking suspicion that many of the suggested deals would get laughed at by any competent GMs.

 

Right on the money...

[CubmanPi]

I think it's very, very likely that we overvalue Prior. When looked at objectively, Mark Prior is a young pitcher with great potential who has had one great season and two adequate ones. Miguel Tejada is an All-Star SS, a position where you don't traditionally get both defense, power and average. He's been a league MVP, and is only not duplicating those numbers because the other Orioles are generally fair to middling. Also, his contract is not insane.

 

Tejada might not put up OF numbers, but he doesn't have to. He's a shortstop. Great shortstops are hard to find, so they cost more.

 

I'd like to know what players the readers here would accept for Mark Prior. I have a sneaking suspicion that many of the suggested deals would get laughed at by any competent GMs.

 

That's generally the result when you don't feel someone should be traded at all. It's not like Prior is going to turn out to be another Corey or Kerry. He's proven that, when healthy, he's better than 90 percent of the pitchers in baseball, and his bad health track record isn't as bad or as long as Wood's, so I don't think holding out on him another season or two is a terrible idea.

 

If the Cubs DO get rid of him, the price had better freaking be right, and by that, I mean Tejada along with someone who we can rely on to effectively hold the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation for most of the year. Maybe throw in a mid-level prospect for a top-level one to boot.

[Deeg]

It's ludicrous to think Tejada is going to change positions in a couple of years. Right now he's arguably the best defensive SS in baseball, so could decline significantly in the next five years (hardly a given, and never mind a "couple" of years) and still be above average. Look at Vizquel, still playing outstanding D at 40...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's ludicrous to think Tejada is going to change positions in a couple of years. Right now he's arguably the best defensive SS in baseball, so could decline significantly in the next five years (hardly a given, and never mind a "couple" of years) and still be above average. Look at Vizquel, still playing outstanding D at 40...

 

Tejada is not one of the best defensive SS in baseball. There's a pretty good argument that he's pretty average defensively.

[Laura]

I'd hate to see Prior traded, even for Tejada.

 

Part of it is no doubt me being a fangirl, which I admit. I've watched him pitch some incredible games. I've also watched some not-so-incredible games.

 

But you don't trade Prior unless you get an A-Rod + back. You don't trade Prior + unless someone holds a gun to your head.

 

We all know that 2005 wasn't the best year for Prior.

 

He still led all starters (>10 GS) in K/9 ratio with 10.15.

 

In the Tribune Sullivan write:

 

But after returning from the injury, Prior went 7-6 with a 4.07 ERA in his final 18 starts, with opposing batters hitting .244 and giving up 3.4 walks per nine innings.

 

In '05 overall, Prior went 11-7 with a 3.67 ERA in all of his *27* games started (the most GS was 35; Big Z started 33) with opposing batters hitting .227 and giving up 3.19 BB/9.

 

There were only 3 pitchers who started more than 25 games in '05 with >9 Ks/9 -- Santana, Peavy and Prior. Prior does rank lousy #3 in that top 3 of '05 in K/BB, OppAvg and HR/9. He's also the only one of the top 3 who had his pitching elbow fractured during the season.

 

Prior has only had one other season when opposing batters hit worse than .227. That was 2002, his rookie season.

 

He has a career K/9 of 10.6. Among active starting pitchers, that puts him behind Randy Johnson. I've read that he has the second best K/9 ratio through the age of 24 of anyone in baseball history, but I don't know where to confirm (or disprove) that. He doesn't have 1000 IPs yet. I'd hate to see him get that somewhere else.

02 11.34

03 10.43

04 10.54

05 10.15 (and remember, he sucked in '04 and '05)

 

 

It's not all about the Ks, though they come in handy. He has a career WHIP of 1.21, and that's with two "bad" years, one good year and his rookie year.

02 1.17

03 1.10

04 1.35

05 1.21

 

I'd love to see more offense and I'd love to see a stud position player at Wrigley. I just wish that Hendry would have obtained one at a position that the Cubs had virtually no one to fill (ie, RIGHT FIELD).

 

Trading Prior would be a disaster.

 

 

ETA: Santana is probably not showing up on the career leaderlist for K/9 yet, either, (and would have less than 1000 IPs) but I'm too tired right now to figure out where he is. Probably ahead of Prior, though.

Edited December 23, 2005 by Laura

[YearofDaCubs]

I'd hate to see Prior traded, even for Tejada.

 

Part of it is no doubt me being a fangirl, which I admit. I've watched him pitch some incredible games. I've also watched some not-so-incredible games.

 

But you don't trade Prior unless you get an A-Rod + back. You don't trade Prior + unless someone holds a gun to your head.

 

We all know that 2005 wasn't the best year for Prior.

 

He still led all starters (>10 GS) in K/9 ratio with 10.15.

 

In the Tribune Sullivan write:

 

But after returning from the injury, Prior went 7-6 with a 4.07 ERA in his final 18 starts, with opposing batters hitting .244 and giving up 3.4 walks per nine innings.

 

In '05 overall, Prior went 11-7 with a 3.67 ERA in all of his *27* games started (the most GS was 35; Big Z started 33) with opposing batters hitting .227 and giving up 3.19 BB/9.

 

There were only 3 pitchers who started more than 25 games in '05 with >9 Ks/9 -- Santana, Peavy and Prior. Prior does rank lousy #3 in that top 3 of '05 in K/BB, OppAvg and HR/9. He's also the only one of the top 3 who had his pitching elbow fractured during the season.

 

Prior has only had one other season when opposing batters hit worse than .227. That was 2002, his rookie season.

 

He has a career K/9 of 10.6. Among active starting pitchers, that puts him behind Randy Johnson. I've read that he has the second best K/9 ratio through the age of 24 of anyone in baseball history, but I don't know where to confirm (or disprove) that. He doesn't have 1000 IPs yet. I'd hate to see him get that somewhere else.

02 11.34

03 10.43

04 10.54

05 10.15 (and remember, he sucked in '04 and '05)

 

 

It's not all about the Ks, though they come in handy. He has a career WHIP of 1.21, and that's with two "bad" years, one good year and his rookie year.

02 1.17

03 1.10

04 1.35

05 1.21

 

I'd love to see more offense and I'd love to see a stud position player at Wrigley. I just wish that Hendry would have obtained one at a position that the Cubs had virtually no one to fill (ie, RIGHT FIELD).

 

Trading Prior would be a disaster.

Good stuff. Trading Prior is a no-no.

[Deeg]

It's ludicrous to think Tejada is going to change positions in a couple of years. Right now he's arguably the best defensive SS in baseball, so could decline significantly in the next five years (hardly a given, and never mind a "couple" of years) and still be above average. Look at Vizquel, still playing outstanding D at 40...

 

Tejada is not one of the best defensive SS in baseball. There's a pretty good argument that he's pretty average defensively.

 

While Tejada generated 24 errors in 2004, he still is considered one of the American League's top shortstops. His range is among the best in the league, especially going into the hole. Tejada has a plus arm and can make all the required throws. He's adept at turning the double play, recording a league-leading 118 at short last season. - Stats

 

 

The shortstop sprints to his left, far left. To a spot behind second base and past it, almost to the outfield grass in pursuit of a ground ball that most times is a base hit. But not this time. For it's Miguel Tejada in pursuit, which is a bad thing for ground balls fancying themselves as base hits.

 

Ozzie Smith did it better because Ozzie Smith did most everything in the field better than any other shortstop ever did it. Of today's shortstops, maybe Omar Vizquel is the Wizard's truest heir. But for pure acrobatics there is Tejada, who has sprinted so far left that when he catches this ground ball, second base is behind him. So ...

 

As momentum carries him toward right field, Tejada somehow moves the ball to his bare hand. He somehow throws it behind him, backhanding it to Mark Ellis, whose own good work completes a double play that on your scorecard gets the game's sweetest numbers, 6-4-3, decorated with three stars and an exclamation point.

 

Or, to quote an NL scout whose job calls for observation of the A's and Miguel Tejada, "It's one of his 'Did-you-see-THAT?' plays."

 

"In the field, he knows which risks to take and when to take them. Pure defense, he may be better than A-Rod was. He gets to more balls, and he charges the ball better. His throwing has improved a full grade, maybe a grade and a half." - Sporting News

[Guest]

I'm far from sold on Bedard; way too much of a health risk + very so-so numbers (except for BB/K ratio).

While Bedard's strikeout to walk ratio was nice in the minors it's been extremely ho-hum in the majors. Glendon Rusch's K/BB is quite a bit better than Bedard's, in fact. (2.41 vs. 1.93 over their respective careers.)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Tejada is well below average in fielding percentage and Zone Rating, and slightly below average in Rate, Rate2, and FRAA.

 

That second report is also dated by a minimum of 2+ years, possibly as many as 4+.

[Ram1380]

I'd hate to see Prior traded, even for Tejada.

 

Part of it is no doubt me being a fangirl, which I admit. I've watched him pitch some incredible games. I've also watched some not-so-incredible games.

 

But you don't trade Prior unless you get an A-Rod + back. You don't trade Prior + unless someone holds a gun to your head.

 

We all know that 2005 wasn't the best year for Prior.

 

He still led all starters (>10 GS) in K/9 ratio with 10.15.

 

In the Tribune Sullivan write:

 

But after returning from the injury, Prior went 7-6 with a 4.07 ERA in his final 18 starts, with opposing batters hitting .244 and giving up 3.4 walks per nine innings.

 

In '05 overall, Prior went 11-7 with a 3.67 ERA in all of his *27* games started (the most GS was 35; Big Z started 33) with opposing batters hitting .227 and giving up 3.19 BB/9.

 

There were only 3 pitchers who started more than 25 games in '05 with >9 Ks/9 -- Santana, Peavy and Prior. Prior does rank lousy #3 in that top 3 of '05 in K/BB, OppAvg and HR/9. He's also the only one of the top 3 who had his pitching elbow fractured during the season.

 

Prior has only had one other season when opposing batters hit worse than .227. That was 2002, his rookie season.

 

He has a career K/9 of 10.6. Among active starting pitchers, that puts him behind Randy Johnson. I've read that he has the second best K/9 ratio through the age of 24 of anyone in baseball history, but I don't know where to confirm (or disprove) that. He doesn't have 1000 IPs yet. I'd hate to see him get that somewhere else.

02 11.34

03 10.43

04 10.54

05 10.15 (and remember, he sucked in '04 and '05)

 

 

It's not all about the Ks, though they come in handy. He has a career WHIP of 1.21, and that's with two "bad" years, one good year and his rookie year.

02 1.17

03 1.10

04 1.35

05 1.21

 

I'd love to see more offense and I'd love to see a stud position player at Wrigley. I just wish that Hendry would have obtained one at a position that the Cubs had virtually no one to fill (ie, RIGHT FIELD).

 

Trading Prior would be a disaster.

 

 

ETA: Santana is probably not showing up on the career leaderlist for K/9 yet, either, (and would have less than 1000 IPs) but I'm too tired right now to figure out where he is. Probably ahead of Prior, though.

 

 

 

Great post. Couldn't agree more.

 

 

 

Why do I have this horrible feeling that Prior is as good as gone??

 

And here I thought I was gonna freak-out when Walker is inevitably traded.

 

ugh.

 

I certainly couldn't blame Prior for being fed up with the dunce in the dugout/Hendry.

[Guest]

It's ludicrous to think Tejada is going to change positions in a couple of years. Right now he's arguably the best defensive SS in baseball, so could decline significantly in the next five years (hardly a given, and never mind a "couple" of years) and still be above average. Look at Vizquel, still playing outstanding D at 40...

 

Tejada is not one of the best defensive SS in baseball. There's a pretty good argument that he's pretty average defensively.

 

While Tejada generated 24 errors in 2004, he still is considered one of the American League's top shortstops. His range is among the best in the league, especially going into the hole. Tejada has a plus arm and can make all the required throws. He's adept at turning the double play, recording a league-leading 118 at short last season. - Stats

 

 

The shortstop sprints to his left, far left. To a spot behind second base and past it, almost to the outfield grass in pursuit of a ground ball that most times is a base hit. But not this time. For it's Miguel Tejada in pursuit, which is a bad thing for ground balls fancying themselves as base hits.

 

Ozzie Smith did it better because Ozzie Smith did most everything in the field better than any other shortstop ever did it. Of today's shortstops, maybe Omar Vizquel is the Wizard's truest heir. But for pure acrobatics there is Tejada, who has sprinted so far left that when he catches this ground ball, second base is behind him. So ...

 

As momentum carries him toward right field, Tejada somehow moves the ball to his bare hand. He somehow throws it behind him, backhanding it to Mark Ellis, whose own good work completes a double play that on your scorecard gets the game's sweetest numbers, 6-4-3, decorated with three stars and an exclamation point.

 

Or, to quote an NL scout whose job calls for observation of the A's and Miguel Tejada, "It's one of his 'Did-you-see-THAT?' plays."

 

"In the field, he knows which risks to take and when to take them. Pure defense, he may be better than A-Rod was. He gets to more balls, and he charges the ball better. His throwing has improved a full grade, maybe a grade and a half." - Sporting News

Quantative statistics aren't nearly so kind to his defense. BP consistently pegs him as a below-average shortstop, costing his teams about four runs per season on average. UZR, widely recognized as the best defensive metric out there, had him at essentially neutral defensive value over the 2000-2003 period.

[nilodnayr]

I think it's very, very likely that we overvalue Prior. When looked at objectively, Mark Prior is a young pitcher with great potential who has had one great season and two adequate ones. Miguel Tejada is an All-Star SS, a position where you don't traditionally get both defense, power and average. He's been a league MVP, and is only not duplicating those numbers because the other Orioles are generally fair to middling. Also, his contract is not insane.

 

Tejada might not put up OF numbers, but he doesn't have to. He's a shortstop. Great shortstops are hard to find, so they cost more.

 

I'd like to know what players the readers here would accept for Mark Prior. I have a sneaking suspicion that many of the suggested deals would get laughed at by any competent GMs.

 

Right on the money...

 

Except of course for the part about not duplicating his MVP numbers...infact the past two seasons Miggy has had better OPS than his MVP season.

[Iceblink]

Tejada is well below average in fielding percentage and Zone Rating, and slightly below average in Rate, Rate2, and FRAA.

 

That second report is also dated by a minimum of 2+ years, possibly as many as 4+.

 

Yep - and his defense slipped a notch last year, IMO. He's consistently rated as average at best by most fielding stats I've seen (Baseball Prospectus, for example.)

 

Put him at 3B and you've got, well, we've got a good bat at 3B already.

 

The thing I like about Tejada is his comptetitiveness. I'd love to have him on the team...but I'm not giving up Prior for him.