Levine reports on Tejada for Prior rumor 12/22 - 26

[FergieJ31]

Either that, or Cub fans dramatically overvalue their own players...

 

See, I'd think that, but considering most Cardinals fans on this board would be pleased to see the Cubs make this move and most of the rational White Sox fans over on WSI also would like to see the Cubs make this move, I'm inclined to doubt that.

 

 

 

Although I wouldn't do the deal, by no means is it a ripoff. A few thoughts:

 

1) I think most NSBB members overlook is Prior's injury history too much. The fact is he hasn't *proven* to be durable. After coming back from his freaky elbow injury he didn't look right.

 

Anyone should agree that Prior hasn't proven to be durable. He's had a few non-freak, pitching motion-related injuries since '02 (his Achilles heel injury in 04 has to be counted as pitching motion-related).

 

But I disagree that he didn't look right after he came back last year:

 

The Cubs were 7-2 in the games he started before his injury; his WL record was 4-1. Then he got hurt. In his first 7 starts back he was 2-2 but the Cubs were 5-2 in those starts including big wins against the Cards & White Sox. It looked to me like he didn't miss a beat even if he didn't go deep into games, hence the no-decisions. Except for a clunker in Atl, he was very strong -- sometimes dominating -- in most of his post-injury starts until Aug & Sept.

 

He went 4-4 in Aug & Sept with a couple of dominating starts against Col and Mil, but he generally looked relatively weak those two months, I admit.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Either that, or Cub fans dramatically overvalue their own players...

 

See, I'd think that, but considering most Cardinals fans on this board would be pleased to see the Cubs make this move and most of the rational White Sox fans over on WSI also would like to see the Cubs make this move, I'm inclined to doubt that.

 

 

 

Although I wouldn't do the deal, by no means is it a ripoff. A few thoughts:

 

1) I think most NSBB members overlook is Prior's injury history too much. The fact is he hasn't *proven* to be durable. After coming back from his freaky elbow injury he didn't look right.

 

Anyone should agree that Prior hasn't proven to be durable. He's had a few non-freak, pitching motion-related injuries since '02 (his Achilles heel injury in 04 has to be counted as pitching motion-related).

 

But I disagree that he didn't look right after he came back last year:

 

The Cubs were 7-2 in the games he started before his injury; his WL record was 4-1. Then he got hurt. In his first 7 starts back he was 2-2 but the Cubs were 5-2 in those starts including big wins against the Cards & White Sox. It looked to me like he didn't miss a beat even if he didn't go deep into games, hence the no-decisions. Except for a clunker in Atl, he was very strong -- sometimes dominating -- in most of his post-injury starts until Aug & Sept.

 

He went 4-4 in Aug & Sept with a couple of dominating starts against Col and Mil, but he generally looked relatively weak those two months, I admit.

 

When he went down his ERA was 2.93 and when the season was over it was 3.67. Anyone have his ERA after the injury on May 27?

[YearofDaCubs]

Either that, or Cub fans dramatically overvalue their own players...

 

See, I'd think that, but considering most Cardinals fans on this board would be pleased to see the Cubs make this move and most of the rational White Sox fans over on WSI also would like to see the Cubs make this move, I'm inclined to doubt that.

 

 

 

Although I wouldn't do the deal, by no means is it a ripoff. A few thoughts:

 

1) I think most NSBB members overlook is Prior's injury history too much. The fact is he hasn't *proven* to be durable. After coming back from his freaky elbow injury he didn't look right.

 

Anyone should agree that Prior hasn't proven to be durable. He's had a few non-freak, pitching motion-related injuries since '02 (his Achilles heel injury in 04 has to be counted as pitching motion-related).

 

But I disagree that he didn't look right after he came back last year:

 

The Cubs were 7-2 in the games he started before his injury; his WL record was 4-1. Then he got hurt. In his first 7 starts back he was 2-2 but the Cubs were 5-2 in those starts including big wins against the Cards & White Sox. It looked to me like he didn't miss a beat even if he didn't go deep into games, hence the no-decisions. Except for a clunker in Atl, he was very strong -- sometimes dominating -- in most of his post-injury starts until Aug & Sept.

 

He went 4-4 in Aug & Sept with a couple of dominating starts against Col and Mil, but he generally looked relatively weak those two months, I admit.

 

When he went down his ERA was 2.93 and when the season was over it was 3.67. Anyone have his ERA after the injury on May 27?

I don't know what his ERA was but Prior before being hit had his dominating stuff. When he came back his velocity wasn't down and I don't know how many times he used his curve but there was a difference with his pitching. The coaching staff did mention that a fracture like that would need more time to heal and insinuated Prior was probably pitching with minor pain. I'm sure that had something to do with it.

[FergieJ31]

Either that, or Cub fans dramatically overvalue their own players...

 

See, I'd think that, but considering most Cardinals fans on this board would be pleased to see the Cubs make this move and most of the rational White Sox fans over on WSI also would like to see the Cubs make this move, I'm inclined to doubt that.

 

 

 

Although I wouldn't do the deal, by no means is it a ripoff. A few thoughts:

 

1) I think most NSBB members overlook is Prior's injury history too much. The fact is he hasn't *proven* to be durable. After coming back from his freaky elbow injury he didn't look right.

 

Anyone should agree that Prior hasn't proven to be durable. He's had a few non-freak, pitching motion-related injuries since '02 (his Achilles heel injury in 04 has to be counted as pitching motion-related).

 

But I disagree that he didn't look right after he came back last year:

 

The Cubs were 7-2 in the games he started before his injury; his WL record was 4-1. Then he got hurt. In his first 7 starts back he was 2-2 but the Cubs were 5-2 in those starts including big wins against the Cards & White Sox. It looked to me like he didn't miss a beat even if he didn't go deep into games, hence the no-decisions. Except for a clunker in Atl, he was very strong -- sometimes dominating -- in most of his post-injury starts until Aug & Sept.

 

He went 4-4 in Aug & Sept with a couple of dominating starts against Col and Mil, but he generally looked relatively weak those two months, I admit.

 

When he went down his ERA was 2.93 and when the season was over it was 3.67. Anyone have his ERA after the injury on May 27?

 

It was 4.07 -- but take away 2 clunker starts in Atl and Philly and his ERA from the time he came from his injury to the end of the year was 3.35.

 

If you take issue with my giving him two mulligans, fair enough -- those were two big games that he needed to step up and he didn't. My main point is that his post-injury performance wasn't systemically worse than his pre-injury performance. His pre- and post-injury ERA doesn't contradict that assertion when you take out those two games, which occurred in his 3rd and 8th of 18 post-injury starts.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Either that, or Cub fans dramatically overvalue their own players...

 

See, I'd think that, but considering most Cardinals fans on this board would be pleased to see the Cubs make this move and most of the rational White Sox fans over on WSI also would like to see the Cubs make this move, I'm inclined to doubt that.

 

 

 

Although I wouldn't do the deal, by no means is it a ripoff. A few thoughts:

 

1) I think most NSBB members overlook is Prior's injury history too much. The fact is he hasn't *proven* to be durable. After coming back from his freaky elbow injury he didn't look right.

 

Anyone should agree that Prior hasn't proven to be durable. He's had a few non-freak, pitching motion-related injuries since '02 (his Achilles heel injury in 04 has to be counted as pitching motion-related).

 

But I disagree that he didn't look right after he came back last year:

 

The Cubs were 7-2 in the games he started before his injury; his WL record was 4-1. Then he got hurt. In his first 7 starts back he was 2-2 but the Cubs were 5-2 in those starts including big wins against the Cards & White Sox. It looked to me like he didn't miss a beat even if he didn't go deep into games, hence the no-decisions. Except for a clunker in Atl, he was very strong -- sometimes dominating -- in most of his post-injury starts until Aug & Sept.

 

He went 4-4 in Aug & Sept with a couple of dominating starts against Col and Mil, but he generally looked relatively weak those two months, I admit.

 

When he went down his ERA was 2.93 and when the season was over it was 3.67. Anyone have his ERA after the injury on May 27?

 

It was 4.07 -- but take away 2 clunker starts in Atl and Philly and his ERA from the time he came from his injury to the end of the year was 3.35.

 

If you take issue with my giving him two mulligans, fair enough -- those were two big games that he needed to step up and he didn't. My main point is that his post-injury performance wasn't systemically worse than his pre-injury performance. His pre- and post-injury ERA doesn't contradict that assertion when you take out those two games, which occurred in his 3rd and 8th of 18 post-injury starts.

 

Fair enough, you're right.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Prior                IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/04 - 05/27      58.3   42   21   19   18   62    9   900  2.78  9.57  1.39  1.03  2.93
05/28 - 10/02     108.3  101   52   49   41  126   16  1925  3.41 10.47  1.33  1.31  4.07

[Dr. Cub]

Either that, or Cub fans dramatically overvalue their own players...

 

See, I'd think that, but considering most Cardinals fans on this board would be pleased to see the Cubs make this move and most of the rational White Sox fans over on WSI also would like to see the Cubs make this move, I'm inclined to doubt that.

 

 

 

Although I wouldn't do the deal, by no means is it a ripoff. A few thoughts:

 

1) I think most NSBB members overlook is Prior's injury history too much. The fact is he hasn't *proven* to be durable. After coming back from his freaky elbow injury he didn't look right.

 

Anyone should agree that Prior hasn't proven to be durable. He's had a few non-freak, pitching motion-related injuries since '02 (his Achilles heel injury in 04 has to be counted as pitching motion-related).

 

But I disagree that he didn't look right after he came back last year:

 

The Cubs were 7-2 in the games he started before his injury; his WL record was 4-1. Then he got hurt. In his first 7 starts back he was 2-2 but the Cubs were 5-2 in those starts including big wins against the Cards & White Sox. It looked to me like he didn't miss a beat even if he didn't go deep into games, hence the no-decisions. Except for a clunker in Atl, he was very strong -- sometimes dominating -- in most of his post-injury starts until Aug & Sept.

 

He went 4-4 in Aug & Sept with a couple of dominating starts against Col and Mil, but he generally looked relatively weak those two months, I admit.

 

When he went down his ERA was 2.93 and when the season was over it was 3.67. Anyone have his ERA after the injury on May 27?

 

 

Here's a breakdown by months:

 

April '05: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA

May '05: 39.1 IP, 3.89 ERA

June '05: 6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA

July '05: 37.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 6GS, 4QS

August '05: 36.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 6GS, 5QS

Sepember '05: 28.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 5GS, 3QS (Others 5IP/3ER, 5IP/1ER)

 

I realize quality starts are pretty ridiculous in and of themselves, but in this situation they give us an indication of how the ERA came about. While Prior did not look himself post line drive, he was decent with the exception of blowups in Atlanta and in Philly. In 108.1 IP he gave up 49 ER (post line drive). The two blowups consisted of 9.0 IP and accounted for 12 ER. That being said, I don't trade Prior for Tejada AND Bedard.

[Sarcastic]

Prior                IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/04 - 05/27      58.3   42   21   19   18   62    9   900  2.78  9.57  1.39  1.03  2.93
05/28 - 10/02     108.3  101   52   49   41  126   16  1925  3.41 10.47  1.33  1.31  4.07

 

It looks like the biggest difference between pre and post injury Prior was hits allowed. Despite striking out more batters per 9 after the injury, he gave up more many more hits. I wonder what the BABIP of the batters he faced was pre and post injury...

 

The walks had something to do with it too, but I thought he got hit a lot harder as far as HR/9 went after his injury. I guess not.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Prior                IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/04 - 05/27      58.3   42   21   19   18   62    9   900  2.78  9.57  1.39  1.03  2.93
05/28 - 10/02     108.3  101   52   49   41  126   16  1925  3.41 10.47  1.33  1.31  4.07

 

So he K'ed batters at a higher rate, but also walked them more and gave up more hits after the injury. He gave up HR's at about the same rate.

 

It seems if he might have missed more in and out of the zone...so it could have been a control issue.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Another thing that caught my eye from the before/after totals..... P/IP before 15.4 and after 17.8.

 

Here's the complete log for anyone interested......

 

Prior                   IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA		
04/13  vs. S.D.        6.0    4    0    0    1    6    0    92  1.50  9.00  0.00  0.83  0.00		
04/19  vs. Cincy       7.0    4    1    0    2    6    0    98  2.57  7.71  0.00  0.86  0.00		
04/25  vs. Cincy       6.0    6    2    2    2   10    1   106  3.00 15.00  1.50  1.33  3.00		
05/01  vs. Houst       5.0    7    8    8    3    7    2   107  5.40 12.60  3.60  2.00 14.40		
05/06  vs. Phila       8.0    4    1    1    2   10    1   105  2.25 11.25  1.13  0.75  1.13		
05/11  vs. Mets        7.0    2    2    1    3    7    0   110  3.86  9.00  0.00  0.71  1.29		
05/17  vs. Pitts       7.0    7    3    3    1    6    2   101  1.29  7.71  2.57  1.14  3.86		
05/22  vs. CWS         9.0    6    3    3    1    7    3   126  1.00  7.00  3.00  0.78  3.00		
05/27  vs. Colo        3.3    2    1    1    3    3    0    55  8.10  8.10  0.00  1.50  2.70		

06/26  vs. CWS         6.0    1    0    0    0    3    0    71  0.00  4.50  0.00  0.17  0.00		
07/01  vs. Wash        5.0    6    3    3    0    7    1    82  0.00 12.60  1.80  1.20  5.40		
07/07  vs. Atla        4.7    7    6    6    4    5    1   102  7.71  9.64  1.93  2.36 11.57		
07/14  vs. Pitts       8.0    2    1    0    3   10    0   115  3.38 11.25  0.00  0.63  0.00		
07/19  vs. Cincy       6.7    7    3    3    2    8    0   108  2.70 10.80  0.00  1.35  4.05		
07/24  vs. St. L       6.0    5    3    3    3    2    3   108  4.50  3.00  4.50  1.33  4.50		
07/29  vs. Ariz        7.3    7    3    3    2    8    0   119  2.45  9.82  0.00  1.23  3.68		
08/04  vs. Phila       4.3    6    6    6    3    7    3   100  6.23 14.54  6.23  2.08 12.46		
08/09  vs. Cincy       7.0    8    3    3    0   11    2   117  0.00 14.14  2.57  1.14  3.86		
08/14  vs. St. L       6.0    7    3    3    4    7    1   123  6.00 10.50  1.50  1.83  4.50		
08/19  vs. Colo        6.0    5    2    2    2   10    1   118  3.00 15.00  1.50  1.17  3.00		
08/24  vs. Atla        6.7    4    3    3    4    7    0   132  5.40  9.45  0.00  1.20  4.05		
08/30  vs. L.A.        6.0    8    3    3    0    7    2    94  0.00 10.50  3.00  1.33  4.50		
09/05  vs. St. L       6.0    5    2    2    2    6    0   104  3.00  9.00  0.00  1.17  3.00		
09/10  vs. S.F.        6.7    5    2    2    3    7    0   122  4.05  9.45  0.00  1.20  2.70		
09/15  vs. St. L       5.0    6    3    3    1    4    0    93  1.80  7.20  0.00  1.40  5.40		
09/21  vs. Milw        6.0    6    3    3    4   10    1   120  6.00 15.00  1.50  1.67  4.50		
09/28  vs. Pitts       5.0    6    3    1    4    7    1    97  7.20 12.60  1.80  2.00  1.80		

[Bull]

Another thing that caught my eye from the before/after totals..... P/IP before 15.4 and after 17.8.

 

No news there. THat's simply a functin of the higher WHIP. (1.03 before, 1.31 after - that's an extra 1/3 of a batter an inning) You give up more hits and walks you're going to use more pitches.

 

Add to it the higher K rate and you've easily accounted for your extra 2.4 pitches per inning.

Edited December 27, 2005 by Bull

[CardsFanInChiTown]

What catches my eye is Prior's high pitch counts. I'd like to see him traded just to get him away from Dusty.

 

:P

[FergieJ31]

What catches my eye is Prior's high pitch counts. I'd like to see him traded just to get him away from Dusty.

 

:P

 

Higher pitch counts, I agree 100%. He seemed to be trying to nibble on corners more post-injury, getting his pitch count up early in some games and walking a few more guys.

 

I don't want Prior going anywhere; not even for Tejada + Bedard straight-up. If Prior, Wood and Z are hitting on all cylinders and make most of their starts, Cubs have a reasonably good shot at a playoff berth and a better chance of advancing. Hopefully someone will get through to Dusty on managing his starters this year.