Let's look at our moves so far

[CubbieSouthpaw]

I know I've said this in a few other threads but it bares repeating - The Cubs have a good shot at 90 wins in 06.

 

And the Cards at 95 wins?

 

Cards

Cubs

Brewers

Astros

Reds

Pirates

[Fred Hornkohl]

Still denying the fact that Perez is going to get 500 or more AB's Fred? You do have Baker as the manager of this team...right? :D

 

I'm still trying to wrap my mind around your characterization of a possible future event as a fact ??? :wink:

 

Maybe I'm just too optimistic for my own good, but I kind of believed Bruce Miles yesterday when he said Neifi wouldn't be starting.

 

If Baker were fired today I would think that would be the greatest move Hendry could make.

 

Who are you going to believe about Perez....some guy that spends all his time with the Cubs or some guy in Syracuse? :wink: I remember the Dubois thing last off season and him starting in left last year and no way do I see Baker starting Cedeno over Perez. The only way Cedeno starts is if Perez is the SS or Cedeno is the SS and Perez is starting 2nd.

 

What really worries me is who is going to bat second on this team the way it is now. Walkers is as good as gone.

 

Hey, I went to Syracuse once, but it was closed. :wink:

 

Of course, my first choice for a #2 hitter would be Walker, but in his absence, I would really like to see Murton given a shot at it.

[Backtobanks]

I know I've said this in a few other threads but it bares repeating - The Cubs have a good shot at 90 wins in 06.

 

I've said that a few times too. The problem is twofold: getting the Cubs to 90 wins and getting the Cards to come back to the pack (88 - 90 wins). Winning 90 games doesn't do much if the Cards continue to win 95.

[JonnyRed]

I agree with most of your thinking, but I don't like the Jones move. We need a third big hitter to go with D-Lee and A-Ram and JJ doesn't qualify. I'll give Hendry credit for firming up the bullpen and getting us a true leadoff hitter, plus not spending $13M per on Furcal, but we still need to make 1-2 big moves to have this offseason qualify as a true success. Tejada and Weaver/Millwood will do nicely.

[biittner77]

Is Pierre a better center-fielder than Patterson? (That's Patterson in 2005, not the past or the imagined future.) YES

.

 

Defensively the answer would be no but I'm guessing you mean offensively.

 

The question we should be asking is will the drop off defensively from Patterson to Pierre be outweighed by increased productivity of Pierre offensively. I'd put that as probably even given the importance of CF defense and Pierre's suspect ability to provide that defense.

 

As far as the BP goes there is one pretty important element that no one seems to mention and that is that the Cubs most consistent relievers- Wuertz and Ohman will not have to bear as much of the burden now that the Cubs have other options for the 7th and 8th. Since Baker is still the Micro Manager, the Cubs are a safe bet to go with 12 pitchers again.

 

CL- Dempster

 

RH- Howry, Williamson, Wuertz, Novoa (assuming Williams is a SP)

 

LH- Eyre, Ohman (assuming Rusch starts the year in the rotation until Wood is ready)

 

The weakest link in that pen is Novoa and he's not that bad.

[wastra]

Starting last year, we had a marginal lineup, and it was expected to be:

 

CF Patterson

2B Walker

SS Nomar

3B Aramis

1B Lee

RF Burnitz

LF Dubois/Hollandsworth

C Barrett

 

This year, we have:

 

CF Pierre (likely upgrade)

2B Walker (same)

1B Lee (wouldn't be surprised if his numbers are down a touch from last year)

3B Ramirez (same)

RF Jones (offensive wash)

LF Murton (hopefully upgrade)

C Barrett (same)

SS Cedeno (Wash or slight upgrade)

 

So is this offense much better than last year's that finished under .500?

 

Not by much.

 

But then again, we have to consider pitching into that record. The pen should be much better, and we hopefully can keep 3 or 4 pitchers without sending them all on the DL this year. But I fail to see how this team can go from last year to competitive with a team like the Cards who have just been exponentially better than us for the past 2 years. I don't think that our lineup, with 2 stars surrounded by 7+ very average pedestrian hitters is a playoff caliber roster.

 

Our staff simply will have to be dominant on a level they have not yet shown to be in order to overcome that. I call that bad planning.

 

 

 

I STILL can't figure out, when looking over our roster, it's a $100M payroll.

[Rob]

One thing to keep in mind, when evalutating the pythagorean projections on the standings, the Cubs would have been 86-76 according to those third order projections.

 

And one huge thing that play an impact in the "luck" of said teams (mind you, we underperformed our projections by 6 games) is the ability of the bullpen. While that hasn't been applied well to said projections, you will notice that the teams that overperform significantly (or underperform, in our case) happen to have bullpens that reflect upon that situation, for the most part.

 

So let's assume that the few offensive upgrades this year cancel out the career year of DLee. If the bullpen performs as expected, we could assume an 86 win year. If they perform better and the starting pitching stays healthy, we could be looking a lot better.

 

That all being said, I still am not a fan of any single move made this offseason... but it's hardly a lost cause yet. Especially if we sign somebody like Eric Byrnes to platoon with Jones in right.

[Laura]

Of course, my first choice for a #2 hitter would be Walker, but in his absence, I would really like to see Murton given a shot at it.

 

I think Murton would be great #2 hitting in front of Lee (presumably) if Walker is no longer on the team (I hope he is, but whatever.).

 

I'm going to try to avoid criticizing Dusty, but it does seem that Dusty prefers matching hitters with positions and positions with batting order. If Walker is still with the team, there's a good chance he bats 2nd, at least vs. RHers. Yay.

 

If not, I don't think we'll see Murton batting there anytime soon. LFers don't bat 2nd. We'll see Neifi! or Cedeno, hopefully Cedeno because that would indicate Cedeno is doing extremely well. He'll have to, to beat out Neifi.

 

If the Cubs have Cedeno at SS and Neifi! at 2B, I'm guessing Neifi is batting #2 and Cedeno is batting #8 (and Murton around 6-7) regardless of performance.

[nilodnayr]

I think its difficult to quantify on a gamelog basis how many Dlee won for us single handedly last year. Hopefully he wont have to do that next year but those who expect the same impact from first base in 2006 compared to 2005 are kidding themselves.

[rork73]

If Baker were fired today I would think that would be the greatest move Hendry could make.

 

Agree. But replace "think" with "know for sure".

 

Having Dusty take care of your team is like having Michael Jackson take care of your children.

[CubmanPi]

If Baker were fired today I would think that would be the greatest move Hendry could make.

 

Agree. But replace "think" with "know for sure".

 

Having Dusty take care of your team is like having Michael Jackson take care of your children.

 

I like it! I'm going to have to add that to a sig which, for more than a year, has been inhabited only by the quote from the dude himself.

[CuseCubFan69]

Of course, my first choice for a #2 hitter would be Walker, but in his absence, I would really like to see Murton given a shot at it.

 

I think Murton would be great #2 hitting in front of Lee (presumably) if Walker is no longer on the team (I hope he is, but whatever.).

 

I'm going to try to avoid criticizing Dusty, but it does seem that Dusty prefers matching hitters with positions and positions with batting order. If Walker is still with the team, there's a good chance he bats 2nd, at least vs. RHers. Yay.

 

If not, I don't think we'll see Murton batting there anytime soon. LFers don't bat 2nd. We'll see Neifi! or Cedeno, hopefully Cedeno because that would indicate Cedeno is doing extremely well. He'll have to, to beat out Neifi.

 

If the Cubs have Cedeno at SS and Neifi! at 2B, I'm guessing Neifi is batting #2 and Cedeno is batting #8 (and Murton around 6-7) regardless of performance.

 

I agree 100%. I'm hoping beyond hope that Hendry and Baker talked about Perez and his not batting second but I do fear that might see eye to eye on this.

[Shawon12]

I STILL can't figure out, when looking over our roster, it's a $100M payroll.

 

 

Wood and Maddox take up 19M!!!!

[Soul]

There is some improvement over last year that I can see.

 

But I think we need to do a little gap analysis here. Is the team we are assembling enough to overcome a 21 game deficit with the Cards? The answer is clearly no-----not even close.

 

Once we've established that, we should also look at the future prospects of the ballclub. That is to say: even if we can't overcome the gap in 2006, is this team likely to improve and overcome that gap in future seasons?

 

Looking at our minor league system, it's not good. And salary-wise, it just seems as though we are spending alot for relatively little. I would have to say this ballclub will likely NOT improve and overcome the gap with our rivals in future seasons.

 

So, while the improvement is good, it really isn't close to enough and it doesn't seem to be a "building" process as much as a "plug the holes in the dam with your fingers" process.

 

The obvious conclusion being----unless the Cards and Stros come back down to us, it's not very likely the team Hendry is assembling will overcome these deficits.