Should we keep Patterson

jmajew · December 14, 2005

I was looking at some stats and I began to think that maybe keeping Corey next year would be the best option we have left. The way I see it is we have 5 options for RF next year: Patterson, Encarnacion, Huff, Jones, and Sanders. I was thinking to myself which one is the biggest risk reward. The answer I came up with was Corey Patterson. I believe Corey will bounce back next year to atleast his 2004 numbers. If he does that he is just as good as all of the other options. Here are the other players career averages: BA/OBP/OPS

Jones 279/327/782

Encarnacion 268/316/756

Huff 288/342/820 (numbers have dropped dratically past 2 years)

Sanders 267/344/835 (hes old an injury risk)

2004 Patterson 266/320/772

I know people are going to say that there is no chance Patterson will bounce back, I believe he will and I am going to show you an example of a player who had a terrible year when he was young and then bounced back the following year, he was also 26 when he had his down year. 209/309/713 following year 257/365/820. This player was Pat Burrell. So it is possible that Corey will bounce back.

Corey will make I believe around 3.5 million next year after arbitration. The rest of the players on this list will make atleast 5 mil and some may go as high as 7. I guess i just believe that we will get more out of money if we give Corey another shot. If he goes back to his old self he is just as good at the other 4 players and he will cost us half the money. I don't see any of those remaining players being big difference maker on our team next year so I do not see why not give Corey one last shot. Let him bat 7 or 8 to start the year, if he plays well you can move him upin the order.

So I say we start off the year with a lineup of Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Murton, Patterson, Cedeno. If Patterson plays bad for the first month or so you work on making a trade but if he plays good we solved our problem.

I'd still much rather see someone like Abreu or Dunn out in RF but if we can't get them I say keep Corey, the other guys probably won't be all that much better and will cost us twice as much.

I just wanted to start a thread on this because I found it interesting that all these guys career numbers aren't much better than Corey's 2004 season.

CoolHandLuke · December 14, 2005

Pat Burrell's value (disvalue) in his down year was tied entirely to his batting average, which, I would guess, was very much affected by his BABIP which, I would also guess, indicated he had a pretty unlucky year. Corey Patterson does not get on base at a decent clip even when he has a meciocre average so I don't get that comparison at all except that they were the same age.

Transmogrified Tiger · December 14, 2005

Patterson in RF would be a horrible, horrible thing.

professahesse · December 14, 2005

The kid has a lot of POTENTIAL upside. Use the money to find and secure our starting pitching (which has got to be healthier than last year with the least of luck) instead. Remember CPAT has speed too. Our strategy is to use speed next year right? If Murton and Cedeno hit .275+ and so does CPAT. We aren't hurt offensively and we got more speed too.

Laura · December 14, 2005

The Keeping Corey Boat left the dock when they traded for Pierre.

jmajew · December 14, 2005

I think if I did the math right Corey's BABIP last year was 291 the previoius two years they were 362 and 388. So I think Corey was just affected by bad luck. So you know how i figured it out: Hits divided by (ABs minus Ks). I wasn't able to find the Stats on the internet. So if i did this right I believe this would indicate Corey just had a lot of bad luck last year.

professahesse · December 14, 2005

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Maybe yes, maybe no. Corey is a REAL toolsy guy. Fast. Good D. Has hit the ball before. I KNOW he can learn and adapt. Left handed to boot. He learns the Strike zone, keeps learning to bunt and walk, has to do better than last year, hides in the 8th hole. One Brock in a half century is enough. Play him. The pitching will carry us next year, and he'll probably hit alright anyway.

Mizzou · December 14, 2005

By no means am I a big Corey fan like a lot of people on this board are, but... why would KPat in RF be a "horrible" idea? Assuming we land Tejada (I know, big assumption) I'd be completely fine with Corey batting 8th for the Cubs next year.

don_kessinger_was_good · December 14, 2005

Why not keep Patterson, this is going to be a sub-500, 5th place team anyways. What the hell, maybe he'll be mediocre instead of awful next time, and the new GM can get something for him in trade next winter.

Transmogrified Tiger · December 14, 2005

At his best Corey would be an average right fielder offensively. His defensive strength is his range, not his arm, which means that he would be wasted/ineffective defensively in RF. Most of all though, Corey in RF is an absolute failure to get production from a corner OF spot. If you go into next season with Cedeno, Murton, AND Patterson in your lineup, you're just asking for trouble, and it doesn't really matter all that much if you get Tejada, you've still got about half your lineup that has a very real chance of falling completely on its face.

jmajew · December 14, 2005

I think the question at hand is are the other options that much better than Corey? Will they get us into the playoffs? I think the answer is no, it would not be a big enough upgrade. So why not give Corey the chance to prove himself?

professahesse · December 14, 2005

Cedeno can hit .275, Murton could hit .275, CPAT could hit.....270. Thats not falling on your face is it?

Transmogrified Tiger · December 14, 2005

It's entirely too early to give up on the trade market. The FA RF's might be slim, but there's still a good deal of offseason left to make a move for an outfielder.

CoolHandLuke · December 14, 2005

If that is the question at hand then I think the answer has something to do with trading Derrek for a boatload of prospects/young guys who can help down the road.

The reality is that most people including Jim Hendry have some aspirations of winning something this year and when the question is "what can we do to win this year?" then Corey Patterson in RF better have nothing to do with the answer.

professahesse · December 14, 2005

Shoot if we can get Abreu, Manny or even Floyd I'd sure take them, don't get me wrong, but I'd say those options are REAL thin. Thinner than CPAT hitting .270-.275 and hitting 15-20 HRs etc. Too me, even if we get say a Floyd....keep CPAT too if we can. He's a toolsy guy. And a potential real good ball player.

Edited December 14, 2005 by professahesse

jmajew · December 14, 2005

If we are looking at Jacque Jones for RF I do'nt think he will help us win. You know exactly what he will give you next year and with him we still would not make the playoffs imo. If we give Corey a shot and he reaches his potential we could make the playoffs. If he goes back to his 2004 form he is still as good as Jones.

Don't get me wrong if we can get Abreu, Floyd, Dunn or Wilkerson get rid of Patterson I'm fan with that. I was just saying compared to the options I had listed that I thought he would be the best because he has the highest potential.

Edited December 14, 2005 by jmajew

Laura · December 14, 2005

Yeah, I'd rather see them do a Florida and blow up the team. Trade Prior, Pie and the rest of the so-called "top ten" for someone else's top ten. Goes without saying that the managment needs to change. Z might be young enough to be the graybeard by the time it pays off (besides, he's too amusing to trade).

It would be a lot more interestng than watching another $100M dud team, especially a $100M dud team with an outfield that Pujols can single-handedly out-produce.

Mizzou · December 14, 2005

Well, my whole premise is that Tejada is at SS, so that eliminates Cedeno. If Cedeno is at SS, I don't want Corey in RF. Also, I don't buy into the whole "you have to get X amount of production from this guy because he plays this position." So long as we're a good team overall, I could care less whether the production is coming from RF, SS, or the bench for that matter. Wins matter to me, not production from a specific position. If we can acquire Tejada, who will fill the #5 void, I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather see Corey in RF that see Hendry sign somewhere worthless player like Jacque Jones or Juan Encarnacion.

Fred Hornkohl · December 14, 2005

For what it's worth, here's Zip's projection for Corey Patterson for '06.....

Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Patterson     .252  .298  .418 146 564  73 142 23  4 21  68  36 147 23  8

professahesse · December 14, 2005

I think whether or not CPAT has a decent to good year depends more on whether HE WANTS to come back to the Cubs more than that he potentially CAN AND WILL produce.

professahesse · December 14, 2005

If he bunts, walks (Tim I believe thought [and correctly over the long term] that CPAT's walks would increase) gets that kind of production I'll play him in the 8 hole 145+ games next year.

CuseCubFan69 · December 14, 2005

The Cubs should keep CPatt and win one for the Zipper.

If the Cubs team remains as is or if Jones is one of the choices I would rather have Patterson in right. I really like how Hendry sours on someone and makes them worthless in the trade market....Patterson didn't need the extra criticism to deflate his "value".

Wheelimus · December 14, 2005

Well, I just hope Jim Hendry keeps his word and only trades players when it actually improves the MLB ballclub. If we can move Patterson and get better for 2005, so be it. If not, keep him, and use him the best you can. And if that's in right field, so be it.

And if it's him in right field, we all better hope that Murton and Cedeno surprise us. Or that Cedeno is even in the lineup...

UK1679666180 · December 14, 2005

You get someone like Tejada and I could see the possibility of having Patterson hitting 8th since most of the remaining resources would have been allocated towards Tejada, but you can't have the potential of that much dead weight in the line-up.

coolpoppa · December 14, 2005

At this point, with the given options left for RF, I say we should definately keep Patterson. He'll give you speed and great range in the OF for certain. He actually hits fairly well lower in the order....the 7th spot..... so let him hit there, give you great defense and speed on the bases....that's a lot more than we could get from Jacque Jones.....