Bull

I'm very against Murton having to share time with Floyd, and I'm not a big Jones fan, but how can you say that the projected 07 outfield would be worse than 06 and especially 05? 05 was probably the peak of crappiness followed closely by 06, but Murton, Jones, Soriano wouldnt be a bad outfield. That's what I was thinking when I saw that 5 year outfield. The big bats of Sosa and Alou weren't replaced immediately, and so the outfield declined all the way till 2005. 2006 was a much better outfield (because 2005's outfield was so miserable rather than the great quality of 2006), and 2007 should be again a better outfield than 2006. Makes you appreciate how great Sosa was. Put Sosa's 2003 numbers into any of those outfields and they all of the sudden become something between respectable and great.

Is the consensus that Murton getting less than 450 PAs is bad over is good? If not, what's your number?

I'd have to think that if Marquis really underachieved he could put up somewhere in the neighborhood of a 6.02 ERA...but that's just a number I pulled out of the air. No statistical analysis to back it up.

Pregnant wife and secretary are due on consecutive days. I survive pregnancy anger at home and at the office...every day!

With very little research I see Salas turned 24 in Daytona last year. What is the rest of the story on him? Does he project to be on the fast track? Any future with the big club? These numbers aren't too far off of his performance last year.

It might be better to look at rates and averages rather than BB totals as there are more PA in the early innings. Yeah, the 3rd and 6th are statistically his worst innings. 1st is pretty much middle of the road. Even rate stats don't tell the whole story when comparing innings. If he had a bad day he wouldn't be pitching in the seventh inning, so it would skew his first-third inning stats. Add to it that he'd pitch differently knowing he's only counted on for one inning, and first inning starting stats mean very little when seeing how he'd do as a reliever.

Then according to Chris Carpenter's "past performances", http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml he would had continue to be a talented, but crappy pitchers. "Past performances" is not the best predictor, because doesn't take into account different variables. It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance. There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance upside? tools? makeup?

Bruce: surely a slip. Lilly's a lefty

Marquis's main value is durability. He's a 28 year old who has made 30+ starts and 190+ innings in each of the past three seasons, with a career ERA+ of 94. To compare: - 28 year old Gil Meche has a career ERA+ of 96, has never reached 190 innings (he did hit 186 innings twice), and receives 5/55 - 29 year old Adam Eaton has a career ERA+ of 92, has reached 190 innings once, and receives 3/25. - 30 year old Ted Lilly has a career ERA+ of 99, has reached 190 innings once in the past three years, and receives 4/40. Seems in line with the overall market for starters, inflated as it may be. It seems that Hendry had a focus of going after durable starting pitchers this offseason. This has to be a reflection that, aside from Hill, he no longer trusts the farm system to produce quality starting pitching like it did during the late-90s/early-00s. It's hard to disagree with this general track: it's worth ~$20M/year to get two average starting pitchers to contribute ~200 innings each, when the alternative could be repeat performances from Mateo, Marmol, or Ryu. Who cares if they're consistent if they're consistently bad? At least with Lilly there was hope of a good season or two. I don't see that from Marquis. Only one Cubs starter threw over 125 innings last year. redarndiculous.

leon?

My best guess is Hendry is currently riding the merry-go-round with Daffy and Goofy. I thought the consensus was that Hendry IS daffy and goofy.

reading...waiting. of the 19 people in this forum, i'd bet 20 of them are refreshing this thread.

I keep hearing about this radke thread...what forum is it in?

What CFer is avalable that is left handed and has power assuming Soriano is in RF? If the Cubs use Soriano is CF I'd like to see them go after Dunn if possible. To me it makes much more sense to put Soriano back at 2nd, but that isn't going to happen. The Cubs are put together like a Piccaso painting from his Cubist period. Piccaso was Cuban? . No. Mark Cuban uses Picasa

Can you tell me how the Cubs front office made Prior's shoulder "loose"? They hired Dusty, Dusty overpitched Prior in '03, Prior's shoulder has never been the same since Then they never get to the NLCS and you bitch that they didnt put Prior in more games It's not how many games; its how many pitches per.

absolutely premature, but knowing how finicky Cubs fans are it might end up making someone a lot of money in about 9 months.

Washed up, done, AND finished.....dang. Somebody should have warned Carpenter. When he was 26 he had a 6.26 ERA in 175 innings. In 02 it was 5.28 in 73 innings, and he didnt pitch at all in 03. He was was probably just washed up and done though. Well, I would love to be wrong and hope I am. However reality hits home when you read reports of his shoulder being loose and surgery could be an option. One if not his last start was in Milwaukee and he looked like a college pitcher! I hope things change, but I have a feeling he will never regain his 03 form. I always thought having a loose arm is good for a pitcher. nonono. You have to get loose. If you start loose, then when you try to loosen up you end up over-loosened or "uber-loose". I keep telling you people...getting too loose is how things fall off.

=; Nothing can ever do any harm to Andre Dawson. Except maybe an Eric Show fastball, no? that's just wrong.

its those darn giant calves. The sheer power generated by those puppies would be enugh to rip off Andre the Giant's shoulder...or even Andre Dawson's

fixed by steve stone

in before lock/merge/move

I hadn't heard this . . . please tell me more (source?) No source, no rumor...someone was just throwing the idea around in another thread.

get a rope. we gonna have ourselves a hangin'

if this team stays healthy, there is no reason why it shouldnt be way over .500 as it stands right now? way? there is very little starting pitching on the team as of 11/28/06 If all are healthy its Zambrano Hill Prior Miller Marshall/Marmol/Mateo/Guzman Not a great rotation, probably in the bottom third. Of course if we got 2003 Prior, and 2002 Miller and a second half 2006 Hill we are looking pretty good. Cotts?

A recent suggestion that Murton could play RF if the Cubs acquired Burrell lead me to consider the following: Assuming a lineup (in whatever order) of Soriano Derosa Lee ARam Jones Barrett Murton Izturis There are several potential defensive arrangements. Soriano could play LF, CF, RF, 2B DeRosa played mostly in RF last year but on his career has played the most at 3B, SS, and 2B Lee and ARam are fixtures at 1B and 3B respectively Jones can play any outfield position Barrett has played 124 games at 3B Murton might be able to play RF Izturis can play any infield position Dusty would have found the double switch possibilities mind boggling. Okay now the point I'm not interested in double switches, I'm interested in potential moves. Leaving 1B, 3B, LF and C alone, you have Jones, Izzy, Soriano, and Derosa for RF, CF, 2B and SS not to mention all the potential bench options. I believe the DeRosa was signed as catch all insurance. He gives you the flexibility to shop Jones and Izturis with utter abandon. If you move Jones and can't pick up a CF Soriano slides to CF, DeRosa to RF, Cedeno to 2B. If you pick up an outfield bat, and move Izzy for pitching, Soriano can play 2B and DeRosa can slide over to SS. If you pick up a SS Izzy sits or plays 2B. If you get a 2B DeRosa becomes your super-sub (perhaps a more fitting role) In Summary I love the fact that Hendry doesn't NEED to make a move to fill out the lineup, but he CAN make a move at any of 4-5 lineup positions and everything shakes out fine. Noone can hold him hostage for Tejada because he has a "gold glove SS" who he's ver happy with. The Phils aren't in a position of leverage for Burrell because "our outfield is set". I still think the end goal is to use DeRosa off the bench.