Bertz

Yeah I've been thinking more about Suarez too. Like we don't really want him because he goes against type (or I guess too much towards type?) but he's really really good. And to your point this team is all about value and Suarez sounds like he's going to get right around $100M and his resume with an average fastball would get more like $150M? Also adding a really good player but still managing to piss off the fanbase is a classic Jed move. I'm also watching Okamoto. I really hope Jed lands him, not so much because I'm enamored with him but rather we *know* the team is going to add a SP of substance, but we're left guessing at what they'll do beyond that. If Okamoto is locked in there's, at least for me, no more worry about whether this team is going to have a proper offseason. At that point it's just the academics of how they choose to round things out.

I do wonder if there's a young 3B out there that we could do a challenge trade with. Like Owen Caissie for Jace Jung lets say? The problem with the current crop of Iowa bats isn't IMO with the bats themselves, it's the reduncancy across them. If you can diversify that just a bit I think it helps a lot of pieces on the roster fit more snugly together.

I hate the "except for when he was good he was bad" line of argument broadly, but it's especially poor when a guy was playing with an injury you have no reason to think is chronic.

I don't expect Bichette but basically any argument you can make for the Bregman fit applies to Bo too. Bichette's going to get a longer contract but that's largely a wash with being 4 years younger. If they do the "sign a 3B trade for a SP" move I wonder if they put any thought into getting Shaw CF reps as part of his super sub role.

I don't want to go nearly as far as "no big deal" but yeah i think we should collectively acknowledge that, even accounting for the opt outs, this guy essentially got Jameson Taillon money. You have to update your priors when a guy gets ~half as much money as expected. You just have to.

ZiPS also didn't love him. I'm really curious if his market cratering is because the projections are so soft or because the private side pitch design guys are just that much more bearish on him than the public ones. The other thing that's weird to me is if his market is *this* bad why the hell is it holding everything else up? Was Boras flat unwilling to move on anyone else until Imai/Okamoto got settled?

Not really?

Man it was clear the pricetag was coming down the last few days but wow that's quite a haircut. Considering the lack of a QO the industry clearly sees him a tier behind King, and probably Gallen.

I'm not an expert at the pitch design stuff (if it were a foreign language I would say I can read it but not write it), but if I'm interpeting everything I've read properly the potential issue is with his fastball. There's basically three countervailing factors: 1. The velocity is good, with the expectation that he sits north of 95 over here 2. The movement sucks, living in the "deadzone" without exceptional ride, cut, or carry 3. His arm angle is special, which *should* make his fastball play up at the top of the zone So how gung-ho anyone is about him is basically a question of how they weight the above three factors, plus the bigger picture stuff like his age and his pre-2025 command/performance issues. I get why a team would like him but be willing to draw a firm line in the sand, especially with the number of alternatives still out there. That said I have a hard time seeing him not being worth at least 5/100ish.

Sign that teams that were in on Imai and didnt get him are moving on?

Two years ago some nasty post mortems came out about the "Boras 4", notably that for teams calling on Jordan Montgomery Boras wouldn't seriously engage and kept trying to upsell them to Blake Snell. You kind of wonder about whether these guys have been similarly burned. Boras didn't want to move the ball with either until say two weeks ago, and now teams are winning the staring contest because the non-Boras market hasn't really moved since the meetings? Basically he was counting on more of the Valdez/Tucker/Bichette types to be gone by now and now the deadlines are squeezing him. From a labor perspective I support Boras but it feels like hes so big there are inevitable conflicts of interest.

He was certainly not major by the time we got to him but Hosmer was NYE I believe. Hendry used to horsefeathering LOVE new years eve signings. I think he did 3 or 4, most notably Marlon Byrd. That said this whole thing continues to look bad for Imai and Okamoto's prospects of getting paid like they were hoping for. You only take this down to the wire if you have a ton of leverage or very little, and the deafening silence certainly points to the latter.

Given the medical questions this was never a guarantee to get to the finish line, so good news. 40 man is at 36 now I believe?

I think if you promised me there'd still be something of substance done on the position player side I'd be fine with Gallen. He's the boring option but I'm not sure e.g. Gallen + Okamoto is worse or has any less upside than Cabrera + Bregman. But based on our assumptions about payroll and the trade market I expect Gallen would come paired with something uninspiring. But he doesn't *have* to and so I'll try not to jump off the ledge if hes the choice.

Matt Trueblood wrote it up and theorized it's fastball movement This was more or less Taillon’s issue his first half season here IIRC

The bench is mostly in place. The questions are basically for us externally. 1. Does the team view Alcantara or Seiya as the backup CF? This basically determines if the team can carry both Mo/Caissie or just one. You can only fit two of Caissie/Mo/Alcantara on the roster at once without injury 2. Does the team plan to add a 3B in front of or behind Shaw? The team needs a backup at 2B/3B/SS, but if you add a starter at 3B it frees up Shaw to be that guy himself

As usual Greg Z is on the money here. Imai, especially at his age, is an ideal candidate for the patented Boras "swell-opt".

Brett Taylor found an actual Japanese translation of Imai's comments as opposed to Google. Clarifies things a bit. Also interesting to me that it's 3-4 teams at the end here. It is something I've been wondering about is how many teams are looking to invest a $20M+ salary in a SP right now. Probably not a ton. Cubs, Mets (though maybe only on a short term deal), Angels, and....? Yankees and Tigers sound like they're willing to do the opportunistic thing but it's not a super wide market.

Yeah I think the big question is if Okamoto can handle a significant chunk of 3B reps, especially for a team like ours that values defense so highly. Pretty much every report has said he's not good on defense, but are we talking more or less an emergency option like Justin Turner or merely below average like Max Muncy? I feel like I've seen more indications of the former, though there's obviously some error bars translating how these guys will be over here (Seiya was supposed to be a GGer for instance). Because yeah if Okamoto is a real option at all of 1B/3B/COF that's a really good roster fit. To your point Craig could go with a lineup of all righties or as many as 5 lefties, which is extremely his jam. It would also give us a, for lack of a better term, adult backing up all of the young guys we're folding into the roster.

A stretch but things are slow around here so I'll post it. This article is listed under the Cubs' section of the Athletic despite them not being mentioned at all. Re: Imai, this is all it says

Formal offers are I believe full on contracts. Or at least like a terms sheet. You see this distinction used a lot for rage bait. "The Mets didn't even make Pete Alonso a formal offer!" Well sure but they talked extensively and there was an understanding they'd be willing to go to $100M it just never got formalized because both sides understood it wasn't going to get the job done.

Can't vouch for this account but Greg Z retweeted it. Kinda sounds to me like the thing you do after you've requested best and finals from everybody.

Imai has to sign by Friday afternoon. Not just agree to terms but everything needs to be done by then. Contract, physical, all the administrative stuff that goes into a signing. As far as I can tell, no NPB player has taken their posting all the way down to the wire before, presumably because of the administrative work required even after an agreement. The latest I can find someone agreeing is Murakami last week, ~30 hours before his window closed. So let's say 24 hours is the absolute drop dead to get everything done that needs to be done? That means Imai HAS to agree to a deal by Thursday afternoon, and that's assuming the holiday doesn't necessitate additional buffer (probably a bad assumption). So sure Imai can drag this out through the holiday, but that feels like eyewash. What deal is going to come along Thursday morning that isn't there Tuesday morning? Feels like Boras calling pencils down today or tomorrow, get all that admin crap out of the way Tuesday early, fly home Tuesday night and enjoy New Years with the friends and family is the obvious way to play things. Like others have said the fact that it's even gone this far is a sign that he's probably not getting a massive deal. Yamamoto's posting window ended on January 4th and he was signed before Christmas. Murakami and Imanaga both agreed ~2 days before their deadline and their contracts were soft. My guess is he's looking at more like Kevin Gausman money (5/$110M) than Dylan Cease money.

I think Theo's "waves" metaphor is the best way to think about the farm currently. Because it's probably average all in all but saying it's average and then calling it a day does a terrible job of setting the right expectations. Broadly the 2026 club should have all the reinforcements it could ask for, but then there's a big gap hollowed out by trades before things pick back up again. Wave 1 - The MLB-adjacent guys This group is absolutely horsefeathering stellar. Mo, Caissie, and Alcantara divide the industry a bit, but each were top 50 prospects in multiple mid-season lists. Wiggins is a pretty consensus monster, and Jonny Long lacks some ceiling but is a quality player/prospect. That's 5 prospects who look like first division types, PLUS the guys who are in prospect limbo like Brown, Wicks, and Hodge provide some real talent as well. Wave 2 - The trending towards late '26 debuts On the flipside, this group is in terrible shape. Triantos and Ramirez look like quality bench players, and there's probably some middle relief and 5th starter outcomes in the Sanders/Kipp/etc. group, but this chunk if the farm is basically barren. If the entire farm looked like this it'd be the 30th ranked org in the league. It should be noted that this is where Hope, Ferris, and arguably Smith would have lived if they hadn't been traded Wave 3 - South Bend (and the youngest youngsters at Tenn) This is where the farm gets back to cooking. Tennessee's not in the best shape but with Rojas, Hernandez, and to a lesser extent Armas there's some fresh talent arriving and improving things from last year's second half. Then you have South Bend which has a phenomenal lineup. Just 1-9 legitimate prospects. The pitching is still not great at SB, but there's at least some arms and honestly even if there weren't with that lineup it's an affiliate you'd be happy with Wave 4 - The Youths This is going to be a real dice roll. The Cubs have a good number of IFA guys that are slated to open at Myrtle. It's a ton of talent, but the reports out of the ACL haven't been amazing to this point. I suspect we're in for another year like last year where this group gets it's collective ass handed to it in the 1st half but adjusts in the 2nd half and leaves us feeling good. Not an IFA but Josiah Hartshorn might be the most talented player in the org and is our best chance at an absolute monster Top 5 overall type prospect