Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Since the 5th pick in the 13th round, only one player ranked by MLB.com has been taken.
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I'm still wondering if the fact that other teams aren't taking these guys either doesn't mean there's a simple logistics issue of only having an hour to work through the discussions instead of overnight as in year's past.
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Oof, that would be a well deserved own goal on MLB's part Looks like the Angels just popped one at least, so fingers crossed
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Interesting that none of the remaining top 100 guys have been popped here in the 11th, not just the Cubs. Is there some new Meta strategy that makes the 11th no longer the place to do that? Or maybe teams need more phone working time?
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I think a few things: - The Cubs' farm currently is very top-heavy heavy, so Conrad not becoming their new top prospect (and I'd argue not even in the top 5) doesn't do him as many favors with the fans as adding the same exact guy to a much crappier farm - Also, more broadly, picking 17th you're likely done with all the Wow guys in a draft unless you accept a healthy dose of risk (the health of Gage Wood's shoulder for instance) - The team's Top 30 prospects is going to likely have 5 or 6 new names on it. For a system that has become pretty thin (and will probably get thinner over the next few weeks) there was some need to go quantity over quality - The Cubs are *HEAVY* into using Statcast data in their draft model. The problem is for amateurs that's only out there in pockets, not in some nice central database like BaseballSavant. So it's been kind of inevitable the last two drafts for some random Twitter account with 600 followers obsessed with Tennesee Baseball or whatever to chime in that such and such guy has 98th percentile contact and 85th percentile power to help explain the "Why" behind a 6th round pick. It often takes the Twitter sleuths like Greg Z time to find these nuggets of info (and the state of Twitter certainly isn't helping here)
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Also pretty logically consistent with the Reid pick where you take a guy with good feel and try to juice his velo.
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So Stransky is just Ariel Armas again? I do not hate the idea of doubling down on that profile.
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Given that you said he really wants to go pro right away, I'd guess even if its not us he's not going to last past the 11th round And selfishly for you hopefully it's us!
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Yeah I'm expecting someone nearly as fun as Hartshorn. Via MLB.com's rankings there are 12 HS seniors ranked between 50-100 who have not been drafted, would suspect we get one of them.
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Wanting to be book...is not book
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The Pirates drafting another Jared Jones is funny
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If you pretend the draft went Conrad / Hartshorn / Kepley / Wing / Reid / Snell The draft as a whole looks a whole lot different
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Kiley has Hartshorn #53, Fangraphs has him 88
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Ohhhhh Hartshorn is super fun
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Sounds a little more fun than your typical senior sign. Usually if they're hitters they are 49 with 3 divorces and if they're pitchers they throw 89 or you need to bring in your second hand to count all their arm surgeries.
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Fun! We need more projectable pitching at the lowest levels.
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He's basically exactly where Colin Rea was in mid May. He's made meaningful YoY improvement, but realistically he's improved from bad to fine not bad to good. If Jed's adding two starters this deadline you could do worse for the second one. He's certainly better than Chris Flexen.
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I'd guess fairly aggressive. Myrtle Beach has been kind of a disaster this season and is not prepared to graduate much talent up the system on moving day in a few weeks after the deadline. So there's not anyone really blocking Kepley from getting to South Bend within the next month.
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2025 In-Season Cubs Top Prospect Lists Updates
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'd put Conrad 7th, behind the five guys Tryptamine listed plus Long.. Which is not a knock on him but an acknowledgement that the system is very top-heavy right now. Kepley probably 11th. The seven above, then he also slots behind Triantos/Birdsell/Hernandez IMO. Reid in the back half of the teens? I think the total package sounds similar (in value not style) to Ryan Gallagher. -
I think it's good perspective to go back to what the Cubs got back for their guys in '21. Or what they gave up for Candelario two years ago when he was the top bat on the market. You can get impact talent a million years from the big leagues, or you can get boring stuff with much better proximity. But even with the leverage the deadline provides it's still an either/or sort of deal. Even in a package deal for both guys I still wouldn't be especially worried about having to give up a Horton/Wiggins/Brown. Wicks/Assad/Birdsell with a strong second piece (as much as I'd hate it, Cristian Hernandez?) is closer to what we're talking IMO.
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Cubs are pretty good at coaxing out velo. Get Reid living more up towards the top end of his current range and he's probably very suddenly a guy.
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Statcast has been live for a decade, there's 2400 MLB games a year, and your typical game has 40-50 balls in play. There are A LOT of comps for nearly any given batted ball.
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FG and ESPN don't have him ranked. I'd assume an underslot pick
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Kiley had Kepley #54 on his board
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High End 4th outfielder is the most likely scenario, but it's not impossible to end up witb a Steven Kwan type
