Bertz

I would suspect they leave one spot open for the non-roster guys to vie for, so the pen is likely done at least as far as guys getting guaranteed contracts. Although they did add Brasier last year and just let the inevitable ST injuries open up Keller's eventual spot, so maybe I'm wrong.

ZiPS projects him to a 3.04 ERA next year. This is basically the new Brandon Morrow. And unlike Joe I trust Counsell to not shred his arm in a meaningless June game against the Mets.

Yeah I like Cabrera a lot and Cabrera+Bregman is a whale of an offseason. But even beyond the usual extent that all pitchers are risky there's an elevated chance Cabrera's elbow pops next year. But hey we do currently have the depth to cover something like that.

Oh hell yeah! Harvey's high-risk health-wise but on a per inning basis basically as good as anyone who was available this winter besides Diaz and Williams. Paired with the floor raisers we already added this is exciting.

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Yeah they *can* add a SP with Cole and Rodon not being ready for OD, but they don't need one. Last I read is that they have enough cash for one move of consequence, and Cashman is just waiting out the market, with Bellinger as Plan A.

Great stuff here. tl;dr is more fastballs at the top of the zone and change out his sweeper for a more traditional slider

I think what we *can* say with confidence is that even if the Cubs aren't going hard in Imai (very possible!) their top SP target doesn't want to budge until there's market clarity.

This is not to clown on Mooney or to say these situations will end up exactly the same, but this is from four days before the Cubs and Imanaga hooked up for their deal. Also thought this was interesting from Eric Longenhagen's chat at Fangraphs last week I think we just have to accept that we're probably not going to know too much until right before this goes down.

Matt Trueblood, the head writer on this website

That's fairly in line with what Trueblood said on Friday. One signing of substance one trade of substance.

Pretty obvious opportunity for positive regression Interesting that he walked a ton of guys in '23 and '24. Because he throws plenty of strikes. Definitely feels like there's some low hanging fruit in terms of 2 strike approach or sequencing or something like that. Only question is if you can get more K's while keeping the soft contact or if it's an either/or thing. Also interesting to me that they're adding a guy whose best case scenario is Mark Leiter after already adding two traditional lefties.

Babe hold all my calls a new Eli Morgan just dropped Cromulent 7th inning guy, appears to be a legitimate soft contact artist. Curious if there are any pitch design changes to try and coax out more swing and miss or if he's just a matchup guy with that changeup.

On the one hand Kaplan's an idiot and hasn't shown to be consistently connected since Hendry left On the other hand the Athletic guys and Jesse Rogers have done some cold watering on this the past week too On the other hand this is basically the same thing that happened with Imanaga On the other hand trading for a SP is what makes the Bregman rumors easiest to reconcile On the other hand that doesn't explain anything happening with Gallen I suspect the Cubs want Imai but think he's worth much closer to $100M then $200M. I also suspect Boras is not getting what he wants because none of the big boys are hot after him so we're just gonna deal with this dumb back and forth horsefeathers for another week.

That seems a little surprising after Austin. But if the Cubs are higher on his 3B defense than the public facing scouts then of course it's a good fit.

Lovich is probably the most glaring example from the farm the last few years of guys who desperately missed the Northwest League. Unlike some of his peers at Myrtle Beach the season ended before he really got a chance to show he'd mastered the level. He had a strong showing in August but the K-rate was still elevated. The good news is he's plenty tooled up, and even if he spends the first half of the year repeating Low A he'll be on a healthy track for his age.

Yeah the Cubs at this point need some coverage at 3B, YMMV on whether he slots ahead or behind Shaw. And depending on how comfortable you are burying the kids you can add a RHH CFer or full time-ish OF/DH. But a pure platoon corner outfielder no longer makes much sense.

I don't know if those first two are true. I believe with Yamamoto the Yankees (and Mets?) were in there til the end. And Imanaga at the end had to pick between the Cubs and the Pirates, his market was much softer than anticipated coming into the winter. That doesn't mean Imai is going to be cheap. But Yamamoto there was a very public bidding war for and the other two guys were suspiciously quiet. And Imai's very much trending in the suspiciously quiet direction.

We're now at 3 in a row NPB imports getting very different contracts from what was expected going into the winter. Yamamoto blasted expectations out of the water, Imanaga came in a little soft, and Murakami faceplanted. Given how quiet it has been I wouldn't be surprised if you were right. Also it would be very on brand for how the discourse around this team always goes if the Cubs got their guy but a big chunk of the fans were still mad because they didn't pay enough for him.

A chill just went down Paul Skenes' spine But seriously, good add. I assume gets a 40 man spot?

The Cubs last year had the 5th best record in the league and the 3rd best run differential. It sucks that they shared a division with the team 1st in both, but by basically any objective measure they were shoulder to shoulder with the rest of the league's upper crust. They did this with a backdrop of stellar player development. They had rookies develop into first division types at SP (Horton), 3B (Shaw), and Closer (Palencia, and I know he wasn't *technically* a rookie). Two of their fun rookies from last year, Busch and PCA, leveled up significantly. Moises Ballesteros had a stellar cup of coffee and is one of the favorites for NL ROY next year. This fanbase goes insane when the wind blows in so the vibes were pretty crappy most of the year, but this was a very successful season both in isolation and in setting up for subsequent years. There's very few years where if you offered me 92 wins and three rookies move into the core that I'd choose to re-roll the dice.

FWIW I was thinking about the Pros/Cons for the four SPs that seem like the most likely options right now: Imai Pros - It's good stuff by any measure but some of the pitch design guys think it might be special. He was a monster in NPB this year, and is really young for a FA SP. No qualifying offer attached which is big; he's the best SP available who doesn't hurt the farm (next closest is...Chris Bassitt?) Cons - He has had command issues historically and '25 was his first really good year, combine those two and he has a fairly pedestrian projection. The fact that there's not a Yamamoto style bidding war happening right now shows the pitch design argument isn't a slam dunk Gallen Pros - Prior to '25 Gallen was a model of consistency and durability. The stuff/velocity is still roughly where it was when he was an ace, so fundamentally this is the same guy who looked like he was in line for Jon Lester money this time last year. Trueblood laid out a fairly compelling case that his issue was that his fastball movement just needs to be tightened up Cons - Even if you feel comfortable handwaving away 2025, this is not the bat missing monster we're all pining for. It would very much have the feel of taking Stroman over Gausman and Ray again. For cost he's probably looking at what King got sans the options? Add in the draft pick and he's certainly not cheap. Gore Pros - Absolutely premium stuff with a good record of durability on top of it. Good performance the last few years and you feel like there's more to unlock moving him to an org operating in the 21st century. Two years of cost control means you can pair him with a substantive FA bat (Bregman?) Cons - Pretty extreme consistency issues, and you do worry to what extent he'll be priced for what he could be vs. what he is Cabrera Pros - Premium stuff and in 2025 started working towards premium performance. Comes with three years of cost control Cons - Major control issues prior to '25. Durability concerns as well, two elbow injuries in the second half of the year raises your eyebrow even if they were seemingly mild. And he wasn't exactly Tom Glavine prior to '25 --- Overall I'm probably in line with most in that Imai is my favorite and Gallen is my least. That said if I had a better sense for what else (if anything) the team plans to do in conjunction with a FA SP I could be convinced to get on board with any of them.

That would make a lot of sense. I saw them linked to pitching but not from any Boston-specific folks. Was likely "well if they're on King..." type thinking. But yeah I believe they wanted a pure bat and also someone who could play 2B/3B, with Mayer getting the other. So my guess is they end up with Bichette or one of the FA 3B. I'd think after making yet another prospect trade they're a little disinclined to go back to the well again for Marte?

In the immediate aftermath of adding Gray the talk was that the Sox were wanting to add two bats and were probably done with substantive arms. Then as we got further out they started getting tied to King, etc So I guess what I'm getting at is my guess is this has implications more in the arm direction than the Bregman direction. Still ultimately good for us.