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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    The Pirates drafting another Jared Jones is funny
  2. Bertz
    If you pretend the draft went Conrad / Hartshorn / Kepley / Wing / Reid / Snell The draft as a whole looks a whole lot different
  3. Bertz
    Kiley has Hartshorn #53, Fangraphs has him 88
  4. Bertz
    Ohhhhh Hartshorn is super fun
  5. Bertz
    Sounds a little more fun than your typical senior sign. Usually if they're hitters they are 49 with 3 divorces and if they're pitchers they throw 89 or you need to bring in your second hand to count all their arm surgeries.
  6. Bertz
    Fun! We need more projectable pitching at the lowest levels.
  7. Bertz
    He's basically exactly where Colin Rea was in mid May. He's made meaningful YoY improvement, but realistically he's improved from bad to fine not bad to good. If Jed's adding two starters this deadline you could do worse for the second one. He's certainly better than Chris Flexen.
  8. Bertz
    I'd guess fairly aggressive. Myrtle Beach has been kind of a disaster this season and is not prepared to graduate much talent up the system on moving day in a few weeks after the deadline. So there's not anyone really blocking Kepley from getting to South Bend within the next month.
  9. Bertz
    I'd put Conrad 7th, behind the five guys Tryptamine listed plus Long.. Which is not a knock on him but an acknowledgement that the system is very top-heavy right now. Kepley probably 11th. The seven above, then he also slots behind Triantos/Birdsell/Hernandez IMO. Reid in the back half of the teens? I think the total package sounds similar (in value not style) to Ryan Gallagher.
  10. Bertz
    I think it's good perspective to go back to what the Cubs got back for their guys in '21. Or what they gave up for Candelario two years ago when he was the top bat on the market. You can get impact talent a million years from the big leagues, or you can get boring stuff with much better proximity. But even with the leverage the deadline provides it's still an either/or sort of deal. Even in a package deal for both guys I still wouldn't be especially worried about having to give up a Horton/Wiggins/Brown. Wicks/Assad/Birdsell with a strong second piece (as much as I'd hate it, Cristian Hernandez?) is closer to what we're talking IMO.
  11. Bertz
    Cubs are pretty good at coaxing out velo. Get Reid living more up towards the top end of his current range and he's probably very suddenly a guy.
  12. Bertz
    Statcast has been live for a decade, there's 2400 MLB games a year, and your typical game has 40-50 balls in play. There are A LOT of comps for nearly any given batted ball.
  13. Bertz
    FG and ESPN don't have him ranked. I'd assume an underslot pick
  14. Bertz
    Kiley had Kepley #54 on his board
  15. Bertz
    High End 4th outfielder is the most likely scenario, but it's not impossible to end up witb a Steven Kwan type
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    AJ Russell's been my round 2 guy for weeks, so hoping to go that direction obviously Quentin Young would be extremely fun though, and would be consistent with Conrad being an underslot
  18. Bertz
  19. Bertz
    If Wood makes it past the Phillies enough pitching smart teams will have passed on him that I'll feel comfortable that it wasn't poor decision making to let him go (even if he ultimately ends up awesome).
  20. Bertz
    I know I shouldn't think like this but the Brewers not taking Wood does a lot to alleviate my concern there.
  21. Bertz
    Conrad's solid (potentially very solid depending on his cap hit), but I would have definitely preferred Wood
  22. Bertz
    Ariel Armas has been roughly a league average hitter in the Midwest League going back to the start of June. Definitely a guy to keep an eye on if his defensive reputation is at all accurate.
  23. Bertz
    If you take someone underslot at 17 I wonder how feasible it is to float a Quentin young down to 56
  24. Bertz
    This question comes up a lot: "Where does this guy rank in our system now?" I think barring something shocking, our 1st rounder will slot 7th. And then assuming neither is a money saver pick, both the other guys today will land in the 10-12 range.
  25. Bertz
    Conrad seems to have a little more juice athletically than some of the other bats in the Cubs range. And if the Cubs are sniffing around him then clearly the data is sterling too. I'd be down. That said it feels I'd be shocked if there's not at least two pitchers I'd rather have on the board at our pick.
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