Bertz

Cubs fans will suggest literally anything to avoid giving a job to a kid

Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke both did the "changeup almost as fast as my fastball" thing. Unfortunately neither guy did it early in their career when they still had primo velocity. It was a lot of 92 MPH fastball with an 89 MPH change, but it worked exceptionally well.

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As the resident Ben Brown fan (apologist?) I'll do my monthly reiteration that he has the peripherals of a strong #2 starter, and those tend to become meaningful far faster than quality of contact. I'll also say my read on the situation is that his issues last year were more between the ears than in the arm. Everyone wrings their hands about him only having two pitches, but smaller repertoires tend to result in more of a times through the order penalty rather than the first inning struggles that really torpedoed Brown's results. I think the best way to balance the standings and Brown's development is letting him be a multi-inning reliever, slowly increasing leverage and/or length as his performance dictates. That said if the team has specific arsenal changes they want to make Iowa wouldn't be the worst thing. The changeup is obvious and already in progress, but I also wonder if there's something that moves glove side that they could implement. Pretty much the first thing they did post trade was kill his slider and focus on his curve, but that was A) at the height of the sweeper fad phase and B) pre-Zombro.

Watched the presser, nothing too crazy which is probably good news: - Jed made it sound like they were done with big transactions and just continuing to hunt for depth - HOWEVER Bruce Levine tried to get him to bite on a thinly veiled question about Zac Gallen and Jed got a big horsefeathers eating grin on his face and said something about having plenty of resources - No one is hurt that we didn't already know about. Carter mentioned Steele and Trent Thornton rehabbing but no one else is currently hurt. - Apparently Hunter Harvey was absolutely gushing about the Cubs pitching and medical staffs. He's come from some particularly backwards orgs but still feels notable - A question about the roster cliff came up. Jed then mentioned the young SPs and how good they feel about them - Michael Busch is apparently getting the opportunity to play every day against LHP?

Kind of shocked that Palencia is the anointed closer and not just "in the mix".

FWIW we have early season series against both the Dbacks and Mets. We won't miss Lindor and Carroll but we'll probably get the power-sapped versions.

Sloan was a no Statcast park prior to this year, so great news

This post is from last night, so this presser is this AM. Presumably we should get any injury news and probably some vibes around how much they're still looking to do in FA.

Honestly they're not much different on the position player side. The quintessential "it's not who you play it's when you play them" team the last few years.

They were probably already going to need a SP, feels like they might need to be the team that comes hat in hand for Gallen now.

Woof. Hamates are quick to get back on the field from but long to get back to 100%.

Love seeing Conrad out there this early. Makes it seem more likely he's fully healthy and can hopefully proceed right to South Bend on Opening Day.

I follow Dan Szymborski's writing pretty closely. He's mentioned something a few times this winter that I thought was really interesting. Basically that the Brewers beating the projection systems every year has been less about them getting a bunch of individual results that the computers don't see coming, and more about the Brewers being good about shifting playing time to guys the computers think deserve more playing time than the public does. For instance Isaac Collins projected for approximately 2 WAR/600 heading into last year, and yet didn't appear at all on Fangraphs' pre-season depth charts. So one thing Dan did when he ran ZiPS a few weeks ago (after the Peralta trade, before the Durbin one) was try to anchor less to what we expect playing time to look like now and more optimize towards what would theoretically be most effective. That method closed the Cubs/Brewers gap considerably. And it makes sense, the Brewers have absurd depth and only like four or five guys making decent money. They can funnel playing time to the guys hitting their 60th percentile outcomes and away from the guys hitting their 30th. The Cubs do IMO have a more obviously talented top of the roster, and plenty of depth of their own. I think much like this past year if the Cubs don't win the division it's going to be more of a "Brewers won" than "Cubs lost" situation.

Connor Schultz is interesting. He's an older relief prospect they signed out of Indy ball who ended the year on a real heater at Tenn. This would indicate there might be something there. I know teams tend to dig a little deeper for catchers for ST but I also like the vote of confidence for Ariel Armas. Maybe the most underrated prospect in the system.

I'm not the biggest BP guy but PECOTA loves the Cubs. One of only four team projected over 90 wins.

https://www.mlb.com/draft/2026/order Cubs current picks are: 23, 62, 75, 99 With only Zac Gallen left as a QO free agent who can impact the order. A few scenarios: - If the Cubs sign Gallen, #62 goes poof. The Cubs latter two picks stay where they are because the Cubs' lost pick is offset by the Dbacks added pick - If the Dbacks re-sign Gallen, the Cubs picks stay where they are. No one loses or gains a pick and the draft order is set - Assuming he doesn't go to the Dbacks or Cubs, the Gallen comp pick will either be #29 or #75 depending on how big the contract is. These would push the Cubs picks back accordingly - The team signing Gallen will lose theit 2nd highest remaining pick. For most teams that pick will lie somewhere in the 40-70 range. Exceptions are the Mets (92), Jays (104) and Dodgers (134). Depending on who exactly signs Gallen the Cubs latter picks will all move up - For most teams the Dbacks added pick and the signing team's lost pick will offset, and the Cubs will stay right where they are Also, last year's slots for each of the Cubs' top 4 picks are 23 - $3.85M 62 - $1.45M 75 - $1.09M 99 - $0.77M So with the 5% overage the Cubs should be able to easily get four and maybe even finagle five $1M+ bonuses.

If there's a run on back end starters look for the Cubs to make a move soon, whether it's paying up for Gallen or someone more from this tier.

Vibes are off the charts with Cutch but production wise juice doesn't really seem worth the squeeze. Via ZiPS Long looks like a very similar hitter against LHP, while the Alcantara/McCormick/Carlson trio are all a step behind but probably better players overall when you account for their ability to actually play defense.

I get it from the Sox side. I'd rather have Shaw or Paredes than Durbin, but being able to draw the line at Harrison as the big piece going out is a big deal. From the Brewers POV, you have to assume any pitcher they acquire is going to hit their 80th percentile outcome, but on paper without giving them the benefit of the doubt feels like a bad deal. Very similar to the Isaac Collins trade.

I kind of assume this will hurt their defense nearly as much as it helps their offense, they really needed to pay up for Suarez. Still Pirates aren't bad, they're better than the Reds were at this time last year IMO.

Levine's been hit or miss the last few years but has absolutely nailed a few things. Luzardo being the most notable. So it's so interesting to me both how confident Levine is on the Gallen happening, and also that he's pretty sure Taillon gets shipped out as a corresponding move.

I think it's fair to worry that Mo becomes a tweener. But at the same time every prospect's floor is either washout or tweener.