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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I'd be *shocked* if Boston is offering anything close to 6/170 to Bregman, at least in real money. If we deflate that # to the same degree as their contract last year you come in around 6/120-130, that's probably a good bit more reasonable.
  2. Bertz
    I think it's increasingly clear the team views Bregman as an 80 grade soft skills guy. I think that's the explanation for why they're so laser focused on him compared to the other comparable options.
  3. Bertz
    I suspect we're really close to Bregman signing
  4. Bertz
    Steele and Assad pretty close to estimates, Cabrera got a nice little bump likely as a welcome gift/goodwill gesture.
  5. Bertz
    Assad getting a team option is....interesting. I feel like you usually only see multi-year arb deals with stars, where the team either wants to futz with the LT or at least just lock in some cost certainty. Assad was projected for $1.9M...short of like a Cy Young season he probably wouldn't crack $5M next year. I think this is a sign he's on the trade block.
  6. Bertz
    Jim: So what's your strategy for this race? Pam: Well I'm gonna start fast. Jim: Mm-hmm. Pam: Then I'm gonna run fast in the middle. Jim: What? Pam: Then I'm gonna end fast. Jim: Why won't more people do that? [laughs] Pam: Cause they're just stupid.
  7. Bertz
    The Phillies' outfield is probably the worst position group on any good team. There are not enough "Sure, Jan" gifs in the world for how skeptical I am of this report they're suddenly hot after Bichette.
  8. Bertz
    I don't think it'd be super far off of Tucker. I think pitcher attrition scariness largely counterbalances the fact that Skubal's a little better.
  9. Bertz
    Bellinger feels to me like a "yeah it can work now" move than any sort of plan A or frankly even a plan B. Like it's certainly better than sitting on the money, and it does help with Happ and Seiya hitting FA next winter. But in my mind a big benefit to specifically using Caissie to acquire Cabrera was clearing up the OF/DH mix. Bellinger not only undoes that but makes it worse.
  10. Bertz
    There was an Athletic article in November where they asked if he had any regrets about not getting a better starter at the deadline. His response was essentially "no the prices were stupid, but I should have been more aggressive last winter." Then it talked about Jesus Luzardo for two paragraphs which tells me Jed name checked that failed deal but had to do it off the record. So there's a good chance the team enters the season with this current absurd level of pitching depth with the idea bring that they're probably not getting a SP in July, and if they do it'll top out at a Mike Soroka swing type.
  11. Bertz
    Your timing is not ideal for making the argument that a rotation that prioritizes talent over durability will have a hard time making it through the playoffs.
  12. Bertz
    This is contingent on being able to move Taillon and most of his salary, which certainly isn't a slam dunk, but honestly I'd probably prefer Gallen if you can't get one of Bichette/Tucker/Bregman. Gallen, Yoan Moncada, and your favorite reliever left on the market (Seranthony Dominguez or Ryne Stanek?) probably costs around $35M. If you can save at least like $12M in a Taillon trade that opens up that rotation spot and should allow you to do Tom/Jed's customary $10M under the tax move. It's not my favorite outcome from here, but as backup plans go I like it a lot. That rotation wins a lot of games.
  13. Bertz
    I would not be surprised if they go basically right to the line, maybe even a smidge over. Basically the idea being if the team is in it Tom will be okay stretching things a bit, and if they're not between all the expiring contracts it will be very easy to dip under at the deadline. Alternatively, I would guess Rea is very movable. Maybe you wait until spring training for some team to have a pitcher injury crisis? But that contract is not bad and by holding onto all three of Assad/Brown/Wicks and having Steele/Wiggins coming mid season he's about as expendable as pitching depth can ever reasonably be.
  14. Bertz
    This feels light even as someonewho adores Hernandez. If you asked me yesterday what this would cost I'd have said something very similar PLUS Assad or Wicks.
  15. Bertz
    Official...and no pitcher included at all??
  16. Bertz
    Also for anyone who doesn't frequent the minor league forum I'm not joking or exaggerating on the Hernandez thing I have receipts
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    *When you do a deep dive on Cabrera and get to the 94 MPH changeup*
  19. Bertz
    😈
  20. Bertz
    I kind of feel like it's one of two extremes. Either: A) Bregman/Bichette are very much in the endgame right now and we're going to know by the weekend or B) Nothing is even sort of close. Jed's going to do the staring match thing he loves and try and get the best deal he can on a $25-30M player in February. With Cabrera in the fold the roster is complete enough but also malleable enough that he can kinda fit whoever
  21. Bertz
    Improving a 92 win team, even modestly, while subsequently making it a younger feels a little more than ho hum. But that's just me.
  22. Bertz
    Not huge in the grand scheme of things but the timing here is a bit funny. The arbitration deadline is I believe Friday afternoon. "Welcome to the org Edward, the first meeting on your calendar is a contract negotiation!" I would hope either the Bregman/Bichette stuff is reaching endgame or the Marlins just finalized his salary right before this?
  23. Bertz
    If they manage to get Bichette this offseason is an absolute A+.
  24. Bertz
    Since I've gotten really into posting pros/cons lists of late to organize my thoughts let's do one here. Spoiler alert, it's mostly pros Pros - Cabrera had a good year last year and got better as the year went on. He had a 3.42 ERA in the second half and his peripherals backed that up. He seems to be a legitimate #2 starter now - 127 pitchers threw at least 100 innings last season, Cabrera was 10th in average fastball velocity. Even beyond the results we've wanted a guy who looks like this for ages - Cabrera comes with three years of cost control, including a ~$5M salary this year - That low salary this year plus the timing of the deal *heavily* implies that the team is feeling good about reeling in a Bregman or a Bicbette - There is/was a lot of redundancy between Mo, Caissie, and Alcantara. Particularly those first two. So using Caissie here to pay the heavy freight means this tradd doesn't hurt the farm/organizational health as much as it would seem at first glance Cons - Cabrera kinda sucked before last year. So similar to Imai his projections are exceedingly mediocre. ZiPS says a 4.01 ERA and 1.9 WAR - The medical history is long. Most concerning is that he had two separate elbow injuries in the second half last year. So while any pitcher can blow up on you at any time there's an elevated chance with Cabrera Love this. Love love love it.
  25. Bertz
    LET'S GO!!! Finally I've been waiting for this since July Caissie and one of Assad/Brown/Wicks is the logical bulk of a deal. Probably someone else that will sting but not make us apoplectic. E.g. Kepley. This also means we should put a hell of a lot more stock into the Bichette/Bregman stuff.
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