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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yeah 2016-2019 looks pretty brutal, but that die is cast. '20 onward the IFA pipeline seems to be in pretty solid shape. And given all of the front office modernization stuff was done in '19 gives you pretty decent reason to hope there's process improvement behind those results. Draft-wise things never got nearly as dire (2017 sucked but seems pretty one-off), but similarly since moving over to Kantrovitz things have been great, aside from 2020 where I think you do have to give him a break from a logistics standpoint.
  2. Bertz
    I feel like prospect fatigue is really working against Cristian. He's the same age as all the juniors in last month's draft (about two months older than Aloy for instance) and he's on track to open next season in AA. I think we all want to see more of that raw power translate into dongs, hopefully this past weekend was the start of an extended heater, but the resume is actually pretty solid on its own. He's likely going to end this season with 10+ dongs, 50+ steals, a K rate under 20%, and very few doubts about his ability to stick at SS. If he'd we'd drafted him as a sophomore last summer with a fat overslot bonus and he was having this exact season the vibes would be very different.
  3. Bertz
    I saw on BN that Nate Pearson's confirmed to have been sent down over the off day. Hodge has strung together a few quality outings at Iowa. Paired with the bullpen reinforcements making it easier to use him in low leverage for a bit, and I'd assume that's the swap. It's possible that Assad is coming up, though I assume he's getting one more start at Iowa and then coming up next Monday for the doubleheader. And then based on what Counsell said over the weekend Amaya is also supposedly back today, curious if the casualty is McGuire or Berti.
  4. Bertz
    Honestly I'm pretty okay getting talent further out. As much as the prospect situation has soured, I'm not worried about immediate MLB depth for next year. Brown/Assad/Wicks are going to have options and aren't going to be expected to be part of the rotation heading into ST. Wiggins probably opens the season at Iowa and isn't on too dissimilar of a timeline to Horton this year. Steele's due back in June-ish. I don't want to totally ignore Noland and Sanders either. It's not attrition proof, but nothing ever is. I'd assume like the Busch trade you'd get a premium on value for sacrificing proximity, and I think this is a rare opportunity to do that outside of a rebuild setting.
  5. Bertz
    Jed badly needs to do a reverse Michael Busch trade this winter.
  6. Bertz
    Caleb Kilian is still in the system?!?
  7. Bertz
    Cristian Hernandez dong for the second game in a row
  8. Bertz
    I really wish we had Statcast data throughout the minors. Obviously he doesn't have a lot of power, but are we talking Nick Madrigal level of punchlessness or more like Nico Hoerner? Because ultimately I think I care more about the raw power than the game power until we get a few more rungs up the ladder. Cristian Hernandez is a great example. He has not hit a lot of homeruns yet but several of the ones he has hit have been nukes. I'm not especially worried about him being a single digit homerun guy at maturity. If Southisene is capable of hitting balls more than ~105 MPH, even if they're currently all on the ground, I'll have more confidence that he's not going to have the bat knocked out of his hands at Iowa.
  9. Bertz
    .500! He did it with a 10th inning HBP
  10. Bertz
    Kevin Alcantara homered, and Statcast is refusing to give any details about it. I feel like it does that to a disproportionate number of Kevin's dongs. And then speaking of guys who refuse to make outs lately Ariel Armas has been on base 3x already tonight. He's now the cleanup guy at SB.
  11. Bertz
    .496 I'm far too invested in this right now
  12. Bertz
    .491
  13. Bertz
    .486 now...
  14. Bertz
    If I'm not mistaken, after getting on base his first two PAs tonightTy Southisene has a .481 OBP since the start of July (110 PAs)
  15. Bertz
    Kepley's been hit 4 times and we're not done with his 3rd game yet. Curious to see if he's a guy that draws a ton of them
  16. Bertz
    Yeah I think Brown (or whoever from Iowa) has to start either the Sunday before against the Pirates or the Friday after against the Angels.
  17. Bertz
    Assad is currently lined up for the Monday Doubleheader, I feel pretty confident penciling that one in.
  18. Bertz
    I'm really curious to see what the rotation is for the series after this, because that likely telegraphs how they go into the Brewers series. But between the off day Monday and the returns of Assad/Taillon it's hard to say with any certainty right now. My guess: - Horton/Boyd/Rea against the Jays, with Assad starting one last time for Iowa on Tuesday - Then Shota/Taillon/Brown against the Pirates - That sets up Horton/Assad/Boyd/Rea/Shota against the Brewers, with all five guys getting a full five days rest for their start
  19. Bertz
    With how much worse the Cards' lineup is against lefties than righties, and with Sonny Gray going Sunday, you realllly want to get this one in. Win tonight and split the next two.
  20. Bertz
    Assuming he doesn't get another AB tonight, Ty Southisene has a .421 OBP going back to June 20th.
  21. Bertz
    Cristian Hernandez crossed the 40 steal mark tonight When he starts converting some more of that raw power into actual slugging he's going to get really exciting really fast.
  22. Bertz
    405 feet
  23. Bertz
    Mule is pitching his best game in a long time
  24. Bertz
    Oh nice, I didn't realize it lined up like this. Makes it almost certainly we'll miss him next weekend.
  25. Bertz
    I think unfortunately with pitching there's just a really high degree of fragility as a baseline. Like all of these machinations are to try and improve from say a 40% chance of a major injury in the next three years to like a 30% chance. Because that baseline is so high and so much data is proprietary it's hard to do a study on what exactly works. What we have seen is some pullback from the extreme babying that the league had moved toward late last decade. It's been notable in the minor league threads how much deeper pitchers are working into games. The current wisdom seems to be coalescing towards something closer to what Japan has, where you can ride guys a little harder on a game by game basis but the flipside is a push towards 5 or 6 days of rest as often as you can manage. I wouldn't be surprised if next CBA drops down to 154 games and every team gets one off day every single week.
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