Bertz

Look at what he specifically said and think about it a little more.

Padres lose. Magic number is 13 with 16 left to play. We're looking pretty locked into that 4 seed.

don't make the joke don't make the joke don't

So you think the team won't add a SP this winter?

If you account for park/league Justin Turner is hitting basically the same against MLB lefties as long is against AAA lefties.

This is awesome, I wonder if any of the other 2016 guys will make it for the ceremony

Whose rotation spot do you think he has a chance of taking?

Beyond the obvious appeal to authority of "they're an MLB team with their hands on him", should be worth noting the Cubs this past winter brought in respected pitching guru Tyler Zombro, and also much more quietly Japanese firm Next Base which is focused on reducing pitcher injury https://asia.nikkei.com/business/startups/chicago-cubs-draft-japanese-firm-to-reduce-baseball-injuries Cade's arm still has a good chance of exploding. All pitchers' arms do, especially guys that throw really hard. But there's clearly some intellectual rigor that has been applied here. And I personally can't help but draw parallel to Garret Crochet last year, which was a smashing success.

Caissie playing CF tonight. I'm sure it's just because Alcantara's up here, but if he can even sort of fake it that's really fun.

Honestly I think for both Wicks and Brown its simple confidence. If we could loan both guys to the Orioles to pitch in low leverage without having to look over their shoulder they'd be all set in like a month.

There's practically no chance Wiggins opens next year in the MLB rotation short of an outrageous rash of injuries.

Kirk got 52 innings at 21. Not even 6 full games. In the last 10 years, three catchers have gotten meaningful time at catcher as a 21 year old (with a fourth on the way) - Francisco Alvarez for a Mets team that lost 87 games - Luis Torrens for a Padres team that lost 91 games - Tyler Soderstrom for an A's team that lost 112 games (and even this one is a stretch on "meaningful" playing time, it's 15 games) - Samuel Basallo will likely end up with ~25 games being the plate this year on an Orioles team that loses 85-90 games Teams just do not trust young catchers to manage an MLB pitching staff at this age unless it's a team playing out the string. You have to go back 20 years to Mauer/McCann/Molina to find 21 year old catchers playing prominently for contenders. Ballesteros might not end up being an MLB catcher, but him not getting handed the reigns to the MLB staff this year really isn't part of that calculus. I also think Jason's point about taking too much off of one picture shouldn't be dismissed, but I'll leave that one be.

The Dodgers are going to parlay this small amount of adversity into the most BS "nobody believed in us" narrative ever aren't they?

He was a draft eligible sophomore last year, so age is a little less of an issue than it would be for a typical college hitter. If he does enough in the AFL that you go "oh yeah he's definitely opening next year at South Bend" this season is still a disappointment but it's not longer a disaster. Also we should talk about how fun South Bend is going to be next year. Mathis, Southisene, Cepeda, Conrad, Kepley, Lumpuy....that's a hell of a lineup right there.

I think what Statcast is calling his Sinker is a changeup and what it's calling a cutter is a slider, but not positive

Averaging 97.9 on the fastball jesus christ

This fanbase is absolutely dumb, petulant, and entitled. I feel completely comfortable saying that, and do so with regularity. This board is the best subset of the community I've found online (hence me being here and quite active), but it's not my only contact with other fans and also not immune to some of the broader fanbase's brainworms (hence the tagline under old ownership of "least terrible Cubs community on the internet"). I think too, if you any sort of regular online presence anywhere you're going to fire off some takes that are duds (like say, today's game being a really advantageous matchup). And if those takes are spicy enough sometimes they're going to draw some pushback. That's the nature of an online community. If you think what I said was out of pocket the social forum here will make you gouge your eyes out.

I called this fanbase stupid when they gleefully began ripping Tucker for slumping. If you felt personally called out by that that's you telling on yourself. Because *that* was incredibly stupid and to borrow a phrase toxic behavior.

Wind's blowing out to RF again, though not quite as hard as yesterday. Between the wind favoring having a lefty on the mound, the Nationals being horsefeathers against LHP, and the general gap between Boyd & Lord, this is about as lopsided a matchup as we could ask for.

This is really stupid

If I'm not mistaken, with 21 left to play the magic numbers are - 13 to make the playoffs - 18 to host the WC round (with potential to drop this one more depending on tiebreakers) - 26 to catch the Brewers

Knock on wood but this bullpen looks like it's peaking at the right time - Palencia's fine, his peripherals haven't moved. hmHe was just a bit lucky in the 1st half and paid some dues in August - Keller's a monster, full stop - Thielbar's not nearly as good as his ERA, but he's legitimately good, especially monstrous left on left - That game against Cincy was UGLY and is still impacting his ERA as a Cub, but Kittredge is very good - Rogers has been hit hard since he came over, but his peripherals have been great and with his track record he's probably still an impact arm. The only thing I'm nervous about is there's not a ton of time left to confirm it. Though again his track record means you don't need a ton of tape - If Hodge looks like *that* a few more times, you can feel pretty optimistic that he's back - Soroka, who was a *very* good reliever last year, is presumably going to come back in the next week and take Brown's spot in the pen - The pixie dust has worn off on Pomeranz, though he is probably still fine for LOOGY work - I'm not super buying what Aaron Civale is selling, but that first outing was legit stellar and in the playoffs long relievers just eat innings in losses anyways Like I'm not gonna say "who needs Mason Miller" or anything, but I think by the time we enter the playoffs we're trending towards a situation where I'll be feeling good about 5 or 6 different relievers.

I think the Cubs being particularly hammered is probably a park effects thing. Wrigley has turned into a heavy pitchers park, much to many's dismay. But yeah probably best to use it directionally and not be too confident in the magnitude. Like Dansby's gap the past three years has been ~15 points, while this year it's 50. I feel safe saying he's been unlucky this year. I feel less comfortable saying he's been exactly X runs of offense unlucky or he's definitely been as good a hitter as Ryan O'Hearn who has the same xwOBA.

I've wondered this too, at first I thought it was because ~half of Statcast's life was under the juiced ball, but looking year by year doesn't back that up https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=league-year&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results If it were the ball '18/'19 would be huge outliers in the other direction. I know I've seen some articles about how defense is getting better and better, so maybe that's driving it? Though even that wouldn't explain the gap suddenly widening year over year. I wonder if these numbers get a little bit of extra calibration at the end of the season?