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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Southisene has a .461 OBP the last two months and is somehow the less annoying of those two
  3. Bertz
    I think there's a difference between "I can't command my slider" and "I trust my command of my fastball more". The Yankees have had A TON of success acquiring guys with crazy fastballs and then having them lean primarily on their secondary pitches. Palencia's young/unestablished enough that I wouldn't change too much too soon, but long term he should probably push from 80/20 fastball/slider like he is now to something like 60/30/10 fastball/slider/splitter. Maybe even further.
  4. Bertz
    Command
  5. Bertz
    Nearly half of those games (11) were played at Wrigley with the wind blowing in. It's not just some annoying coincidence that the pitching was great and the bats struggled.
  6. Bertz
    Kyle Hendricks sinker is 86.5 MPH. A league average changeup at this point is 85.8.
  7. Bertz
    I would guess it's unlikely the team makes a 40 man move at this point. There's probably some wiggle room for someone Rule 5 eligible in December, like Martin, but I think Long and Wiggins are huge longshots. I suspect the expanded rosters will be pretty boring. I think on the pitching front the team will start carrying all three of Assad/Brown/Wicks instead of just 2/3. And then at some point Soroka will come back and knock one off the roster. On the position player front it's similar. I haven't seen anything especially concrete on Amaya's timeline, but I suspect we see one of Alcantara/Ballesteros until they can give way to Amaya. I suspect the decision on which prospect bat depends on whether the team is comfortable with Ballesteros getting any time at all behind the plate. He's obviously not going to start a bunch of games but what about in a blowout?
  8. Bertz
    Love Kyle, would be totally cool with him showing out today, but this lineup is not a good matchup for him. I'd say all of our lefties plus Seiya you feel good about connecting against a guy who throws soft stuff mostly low. Maybe he can channel Max Scherzer or Andrew Abbott and have a bunch of screaming liners get hit directly at defenders for 5-6 innings, but I'd be surprised if he legitimately holds this lineup down.
  9. Bertz
    I think it depends on whose rotation is healthier at the moment. Right now the Dodgers have all three of Yamamoto/Glasnow/Snell, so you'd much rather face the Padres. Who knows how long that'll last though, and Cease/King/Pivetta isn't *that* far behind.
  10. Bertz
    @Brock Beauchamp Can we add Ty Southisene and Kade Snell?
  11. Bertz
    Man I'm sure glad I'm not one of the dummies who spent the last few weeks horsefeathers talking Tucker
  12. Bertz
    He's a 23 year old with a little over a half season's worth of PAs under his belt. And as hot as he's been lately his full season batting line is still below league average. I don't think we're anywhere close to the point where a disservice is being done to him developmentally. Also I don't know if I fully buy Trueblood's "Busch optimized his swing to only hit RHP" thesis but I do think it's interesting that he finally got something approaching full playing time against lefties in July and then now he is in his his first prolonged funk of the season.
  13. Bertz
    It's pretty obvious at this point that the team is shielding Shaw from right handed sinkerballers. Pretty much every "why isn't Shaw starting" complaint the last few weeks has that in common.
  14. Bertz
    Wiggins is for real pitching, no fakeouts
  15. Bertz
  16. Bertz
    I am too, that said it would have been very easy to IL him this week and they didn't, so I'm hoping that's a positive sign.
  17. Bertz
    It would be a really good day for a blowout so that Horton and Brown could take all 9 and give the short relievers a breather
  18. Bertz
    Shaw's defense is actually pretty interesting because by the eye test he's pretty stellar, but Statcast hates him. Fangraphs has two defensive stats: one from Statcast and another called DRS. Statcast is purely automated, while DRS is based on people watching film and grading every play (very very similar to PFF grades in football). Statcast says he's been 3 runs worse than an average 3B this year, ranking 13th out of 16 qualified 3B. DRS has him at +9 runs, second in the league to only Ke'Bryan Hayes. Personally, I tend to trust Statcast completely in the outfield, while for infielders I think there's more nuance (tricky bounces, baserunning, etc.) and like to split the difference between Statcast and DRS. That'd put Shaw as a +6 3B. Well above average but not really in the Gold Glove discussion. That lines up with the eye test IMO.
  19. Bertz
    Kade Snell skipped the ACL and went straight to South Bend. He got his ass kicked his first week there, since then: .265/.419/.324, 124 wRC+, matching 20.9% K and BB rates Obviously needs to get to the power a bit more, but pretty fun. Would not berl surprised if he's next season's Jonny Long
  20. Bertz
    Connor Noland is shoving tonight He's an interesting one to watch this winter. He presumably gets a 40 man spot, but is he someone the team would ever trust giving a start to? Does he instead serve as the 3rd guy in a big SP trade?
  21. Bertz
  22. Bertz
    Yeah I would think even if Horton avoids the IL you'd do Assad Saturday and Horton Sunday
  23. Bertz
    There's more to offense than purely homeruns. Bellinger has a 150 wRC+ at home and a 99 on the road. I'm not going to do the thing people do with Rockies players where they try to double his road stats and say that's the real him but he, like Paredes, has moved to easily the best park in the league for his batted ball profile and has predictably benefitted.
  24. Bertz
    I was about to write something about Bellinger's home/road numbers but again this fanbase can't even process the impacts of the wind blowing in at Wrigley so what's the point
  25. Bertz
    It's a weak crop of rookies in the NL this year, so he probably gets *some* votes just because a lot of guys are going to end up on at least one ballot. That said I'd guess I'd guess ROY voting to skew heavily towards pitchers. Misiorowski or Burns are probably going to win it even with relatively low volume IMO. And I'd bet Cade Horton gets at least as much love as Shaw.
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